Labor shortage

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JOhnH

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I would like some help understanding the current labor shortage.

Yeah, I have heard about all the people staying home and collecting government subsidies NOT to work, but is that still a thing? I knew a lot of people early in the pandemic that were laid off and happy. They were drawing substantial compensation for not working. But all the people I knew are now back to work, except for a few older friends that decided retirement was better than competing for a new job as a senior.

I do know of several business owners that say their older skilled people have left the workforce and the skills are just not there. I'm thinking the trades, like plumbers, electricians, carpenters, auto techs and appliance repair. And those are just some that I am personally knowledgeable about. Is that the problem? I currently need some masonry work done and everyone is telling me they are booking 6 months out because they can't find help.

But what about unskilled positions? Restaurant wait staff for instance, although there can be a case made that that takes skill, but it is entry level skill. My lawn guy can't find anyone to ride a mower or swing a weed eater or run a blower. He says he used to have a list of 20 people that he could call and get help within a day.

So why can't businesses attract employees?

I know we have many business owners and skilled employees on this board that might have an insight. Does anyone know anyone that wants a job and can't find one? Are people just being picky and choosing not to work? How can they do that and still eat?
 
"Does anyone know anyone that wants a job and can't find one?"

Except for one person medically out of work, the people I know looking for a job aren't exactly the cream of the crop.

Local trades have huge problems retaining people, especially the entry-level.
 
I have read estimates that, due to various factors (use your imagination here folks, to avoid the lock), the US has about 2 million fewer workers than we otherwise would have had based on past numbers, due to reductions in immigration (both documented and undocumented) over the past several years.
 
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I know many people, including myself, who aren’t working and don’t want to. The boomer workforce is rapidly retiring. Quite a few of us ran the numbers and figured out we were working for free, or almost free. COVID and working from home eliminated most of the fun factor for me, so there wasn’t really any reason to continue.

Tomorrow I’ll be meeting a dozen or so of my recently retired buddies at a BBQ place for lunch. Sure hope there will be a waiter....
 
Half Fast said:
I know many people, including myself, who aren’t working and don’t want to. The boomer workforce is rapidly retiring. Quite a few of us ran the numbers and figured out we were working for free, or almost free. COVID and working from home eliminated most of the fun factor for me, so there wasn’t really any reason to continue.

Tomorrow I’ll be meeting a dozen or so of my recently retired buddies at a BBQ place for lunch. Sure hope there will be a waiter....
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buffet? you get to be your own waiter
 
Jeff Oslick said:
…the US has about 2 million fewer workers than we otherwise would have had based on past numbers...
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Fairly accurate, but on the low side. As of April, the estimate is ~3.5 million.

Jeff Oslick said:
……due to reductions in immigration (both documented and undocumented) over the past several years.
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That is only a small part of the equation. Early retirements, moves from DINKs to SINK or 2POI households, debt reduction coupled with some fiscal discipline, and other factors contribute.

If you have a WSJ account, here’s some good reporting on the topic.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/severa...g-out-of-labor-force-indefinitely-11650101400
 
Fewer available workers due to people reducing hours or going from dual to single income households, increasing retirements, less immigration. Unemployments low people have options why work for 12-15 an hour retail or FF when you can pop into an amazon position at 18-20+
 
Why do skilled labor or a profession like a doctor or a proctologist when you can make as much flipping burgers.

And I'm not demeaning burger flippers. I like burgers.
 
Just answering the direct question of why can’t businesses attract employees? Pay me $200 an hour, I will flip your burgers then mow your grass. Perhaps there is a pay shortage.
 
Radar Contact said:
Is that a typo?
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IDT so. Numbers have been dropping for a couple years. If I remember correctly illegal immigration peaked in 2007 and has been trending down or flat since then. Refugee numbers are down to 15000 a year and I don't think legal immigration has increased.

I remember discussing the trend back in 2010 in my industrial economics course.
 
I have tried to get some of the teenagers at church to do some work around my house. When I tell them I'll pay 60 bucks for the 8 hour day in cash, no taxes plus I'll feed them and so far all have refused except one. Guess who is going to get the big job this summer....


When I was a teenager I took anything that paid anything...

soapbox-preach.gif
 
try to find people willing to work on a farm...
 
This thread will go sideways in a hurry. But to me, a labor shortage isn't a terrible thing. People will work for the companies that pay them more money.
 
Asking for a friend, but if we had not aborted 60M over the last 50ish years would we have:
- labor shortages?
- social security deficits?
- tax deficits?

Not being political, legit question of numbers.
 
I can't even get phone calls returned from the assorted trade/handyman types around here. I've been learning to do this ish myself, and am pretty grouchy about it.

It will pay, though, when/if the work ever dries up and these clowns start knocking. I have a long memory for grudges. Before you ask, it's a curse. :D

Aviation vendors don't have time, don't have stock, don't call back. I was quoted 3 weeks and $1500 to do an oil change on my plane. I didn't want to do it myself, but for a grover and a half, I g'damn well will. It's an hour of work and $150 in stuff. 15 minutes if you have other things to do in your shop instead of waiting around. Sheesh.

I can't hire decent anything on the tech side either, comp packages are up about 50-100% from a year ago, and they weren't light then. My contracting rate+throughput is up about 50%, and I'm about to raise rates again. Since I actually show up and do what I say I will, I end up in the top ~10% apparently.

It's wacky out there. There's some real arrogance coming to the surface (I'm guilty of this too, despite trying not to be) and I think it's gonna snap back ugly at some point.
 
L J Donelson said:
Asking for a friend, but if we had not aborted 60M over the last 50ish years would we have:
- labor shortages?
- social security deficits?
- tax deficits?

Not being political, legit question of numbers.
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Sorry, 60M unwanted babies solves the problem of too many unsmashed windows and unstolen catalytic converters IMHO. I don't think it solves the "shortage of labor" problem being discussed here.

I didn't think it was IBTL before, but I suppose it is now. :p
 
I've been trying to find a job that is M-F, working 9-5 (or equivalent). I worked every weekend all during college and on Sundays for years, and I'd really like to be done with that. I've found lots of jobs and everyone is hiring...except if they don't require weekends, they all require 5-20 years of experience in field, and that's a hard requirement. I have more than 5 years of working experience and a bachelor's degree, but it's not the right kind of work experience for a reasonable job today. I've always been able to pick up on stuff very quickly, but nobody will take a chance on someone who doesn't possess years of experience doing something any more.
 
SkyChaser said:
I've been trying to find a job that is M-F, working 9-5 (or equivalent). I worked every weekend all during college and on Sundays for years, and I'd really like to be done with that. I've found lots of jobs and everyone is hiring...except if they don't require weekends, they all require 5-20 years of experience in field, and that's a hard requirement. I have more than 5 years of working experience and a bachelor's degree, but it's not the right kind of work experience for a reasonable job today. I've always been able to pick up on stuff very quickly, but nobody will take a chance on someone who doesn't possess years of experience doing something any more.
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That’s one of my favorites. “10 years of augmented reality design, machine learning development, full stack developer.” Um yeah, that wasn’t an option five years ago.
 
schmookeeg said:
Sorry, 60M unwanted babies solves the problem of too many unsmashed windows and unstolen catalytic converters IMHO. I don't think it solves the "shortage of labor" problem being discussed here.

I didn't think it was IBTL before, but I suppose it is now. :p
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I remember years ago reading that there was a sharp drop in violent crime about 18 years after R v. W. Nobody wanted to acknowledge it.
 
LesGawlik said:
I remember years ago reading that there was a sharp drop in violent crime about 18 years after R v. W. Nobody wanted to acknowledge it.
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I'm not surprised. Abortion is mostly utilized by irresponsible, immature adults who want pleasure with no consequences. Sounds like great parent material...said no one ever. Now, if those same mothers and fathers matured during the pregnancy, got serious together and created a family for the child instead of aborting it, yes, that might help with the "body" shortage.
 
falconkidding said:
IDT so. Numbers have been dropping for a couple years. If I remember correctly illegal immigration peaked in 2007 and has been trending down or flat since then. Refugee numbers are down to 15000 a year and I don't think legal immigration has increased.

I remember discussing the trend back in 2010 in my industrial economics course.
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That might be what’s reported but based on the number of flights that are bringing refugees into the country I think that 15k number this year is very under reported.
 
I have a sign that hangs in my office when it is not packed away...

''Too many folks are itchin' for more than they are willing to scratch fer...''
 
EdFred said:
Because certain groups have convinced people with minimal to 0 marketable skills that they are worth $75k - $100k/year. So they stay home and leech of mom and dad who never told their kids no and just let them keep living at home.
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This is at least part of the problem. I personally know of several "adults" sitting at home living off support from their parents. One a closer relative than I'd care to admit (not my kid!). You ask their parents why they aren't working, "They just can't find a job.". Really? Have they left the basement?
 
falconkidding said:
Refugee numbers are down to 15000 a year and I don't think legal immigration has increased.
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What all inclusive database are illegal immigrants submitting their data to? I liken this to the “twins just have a 2nd engine to get you to the scene” crowd. There’s no accurate database for successful OEI landing either.

Not trying to start an argument, just not a fan of unobtainable stats.
 
SkyChaser said:
…nobody will take a chance on someone who doesn't possess years of experience doing something any more.
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You can thank higher comp package expenses for that. In many mid-size and larger businesses, comp growth is programmed out over a several years. For the last 18-24 months, comp expense growth is far outpaced forecasts and revenue has grown as quickly so profit is compressed. Until that margin is restored, companies don’t have room for entry level people in mid-level pay band jobs that, last year, the pay band was reserved for senior levels.

As an HR guy (and not a hiring manager), who you know at a target employer is always important, but having an internal advocate to walk your resume in and make a bet on you is almost a requirement if you don’t have a portfolio that backs up the comp.
 
The funny part to me is that both the crazy left and crazy right think that the government should, and can, fix things. Can't, and shouldn't. Regulation of corporations isn't a bad thing, they're an artificial construct anyway, but people? Regulations should be set like speed limits should be set - bad thing things that 90-95% of the people agree should be banned. Stop worrying about what other people want to do - sex, firearms, drugs, or anything else in a Warren Zevon song. Freedom means letting people do things that you don't like, and may not think are moral. That's ok. Whatever special group you belong to really isn't that special. They're mostly a bunch of sheep following around the ghosts of Marx, or whichever deity that popped out of the mid-east. It's the adult version of Santa, or the other guy with the little red book. It's just noise.

Yeah, ok, that's a rant. I'm good with that.
 
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