How to Predict High Winds

Oh, the data Windy is using is "commercial", so I'm assuming that means the 9KM resolution surface wind data isn't freely available.
 
Jon Belanger said:
Here's the ECMWF chart for North America. It's generally agreeing with the current METAR and TAF data, but it's 850 hPA, so not necessarily surface or even pattern winds?

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/...2017112900&projection=classical_north_america
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From the referenced website:
Wind speed at the 850 hPa level

is shown in metres per second (m/s) using colour shading. Shading starts at 15 m/s. So this field highlights areas of strong winds approximately 1.5 km above sea level.
 
OK, looking at Windy.com. Nice site. Looks like I'll be getting some good xwind training tomorrow!
 
Clark1961 said:
From the referenced website:
Wind speed at the 850 hPa level

is shown in metres per second (m/s) using colour shading. Shading starts at 15 m/s. So this field highlights areas of strong winds approximately 1.5 km above sea level.
Click to expand...

Yep, I see. I'm not entirely sure how it's getting its surface wind data though. I'm thinking I want to look at the source data myself, but maybe that's not advisable.
 
Jon Belanger said:
Yep, I see. I'm not entirely sure how it's getting its surface wind data though. I'm thinking I want to look at the source data myself, but maybe that's not advisable.
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I’ve done a fair bit of fluid flow modeling but no atmospheric modeling. Data will generally be available at every node. I don’t know what the vertical resolution is. Having said that the synthetic sounding data vertical resolution is fairly fine and there appear to be nodes near the surface.
 
Clark1961 said:
I’ve done a fair bit of fluid flow modeling but no atmospheric modeling. Data will generally be available at every node. I don’t know what the vertical resolution is. Having said that the synthetic sounding data vertical resolution is fairly fine and there appear to be nodes near the surface.
Click to expand...

Synthetic was my impression as well.
 
Dan Thomas said:
Ever notice that the wind is usually a lot calmer at night? Sometimes no wind at all after a windy day? That's nocturnal inversion.
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Few years ago checked duats and called FSS for weather/winds, calm with winds variable at 3 knots or less all night. There was a front that passed through about 36 hours earlier, and in my area storms sometimes re-establish near the Hueco mountains during our rainy season (well August anyway).

So off I go from my field over to Class C (10pm) and everything is perfect on the first 3 stop-n-goes. On crosswind for #4, the lights in our sister city Juarez Mexico are fading and I ask tower if he has precip in the area and he responds negative. A Hawker inbound answers after reporting in that winds on the west side (where my field is) are howling. I head over and on final winds are 90* to the runway 29G34 which I've done during the day, but not at night. I setup for an approach figuring if it's bad, I'll bug out to Las Cruces (KLRU) which has 3 runways. On short final at 300 feet, I hit shear that shoves me down about 100 feet in 1 second, full power arrest it, and a re-click during go-around of the super awos now says "updated weather - winds 39g49" which is way too high, plus shear. I head to Las Cruces and get tossed a couple of times on the way there, but land in calm winds and tie down. About an hour later it rolls into that area also. I call FSS and they basically say they see the winds now, but they shouldn't be there:eek:. I sleep in the back of the plane until 5am and fly home in calm winds.
 
I love it when forecasters say winds should be other than the observed winds. Gives me lots of confidence that they will admit when they don't understand things (not).
 
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