How to know when to go?

Skyrys62

Skyrys62

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ok.. it sounds like a bathroom thread...I know.
but(t)...I'm about to start my cross country and was in Nashville at KBNA yesterday evening picking someone up from the airport. I drove from Owensboro KY...about a 2 hr drive.
I would have loved to have flown down and picked them up in a small plane instead, but am not licensed yet.
As I arrived in the car I saw this guy (in the picture).
So I wondered...having no experience at all with weather (but I know this guy isn't friendly)...can you sneak around things like this and avoid them to pop in/out of an airport, or is the whole area likely turbulent and should be avoided in small craft?
I know there's a ton of variables, but I'm just new, and wondering if flying around this stuff is common?
IMG_20170429_185255.jpg
 
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Sneak around? Not really.

Avoid, especially on the downwind side. By quite a lot if you don't have onboard weather (REAL weather -- radar or stormscope, not the time delayed XM or ADSB).

You may have to divert if a new cell pops up in an inconvenient place.
 
That's a thunderstorm. Even the commercial airlines avoid them like the plague. Take a look at the Weather section in whatever book/materials you're using for ground school training to understand the size of the area this can impact.

Hint hint - anvil shape.

Talk to your CFI, too. It's a learning oppernokity.
 
That's a towering cumulonimbus. You need to give this weather a WIDE berth. The billowing cloud indicates extreme uplift air current and a lot of moisture. The flat top indicates sudden drop in temperature.
 
Make sure you always have an out. You can pick your way in between some stuff. Sometimes you can't.
 
You can't see enough in that picture to make a judgment. Is it isolated? Are there other towering CU around that could grow into a thunderstorm?
 
There were other towers around. This one was just the big boy. I watched it develop from a tower to the big anvil it is in the picture while I was driving.
I asked the person I picked up if there was any turbulence and they opened their eyes real wide and just said "oh Lord"

I do realize I need to stay far away, but it looks somewhat off in the distance, and fairly high up...hence my question about popping in for a landing, and taking back off shortly after.
It was fairly windy and would have been a bumpy day, but I have no experience to know if it would have been just awful in the whole general area and/or dangerous.
Another cell/storm developing would be something to watch for, certainly, but other than that just wondering if you guys fly in areas of things like this on occasion and if it can be safely done...without passengers throwing up (or pilot) ha ha
 
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Skyrys62 said:
There were other towers around. This one was just the big boy. I watched it develop from a tower to the big anvil it is in the picture while I was driving.
I asked the person I picked up if there was any turbulence and they opened their eyes real wide and just said "oh Lord"
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Then it's better to stay on the ground. But there can be instances where a storm is isolated and you can fly around it. Don't expect it to be smooth, though.
 
part of the reason I ask also... is that the local flight school owner was telling me a story recently.

A few weeks ago, he was in the Memphis area. There were storms around, but nothing very close. He hit some turbulence, which got so bad he ended up inverted at one point. He's been instructing for 20+ years and said he never experienced anything like it. As it was all happening his iPad came loose and bounced around ending up in the backseat when it was over. Said he managed to regain control of the airplane, but his wife and kids were terrified, called for an emergency landing, requested the plane be inspected for damage, and filed paperwork.
What really sparked my curiosity, and this question, was he said another pilot he knew, was 15 miles closer to the storms and reported (relatively) smooth air.

Which tells me, you just never know....and I definitely don't mind avoiding roughness or potential danger, but I don't want to be unnecessarily afraid of any weather either.
My CFI is young, and may have seen some rough weather, but I'm sure some of you guys have much more experience and wondered if you fly or have flown around those type of situations.
 
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I've been closer to some nastier-looking stuff than that, but it has never been smooth and there have been some real pucker-factor moments.

Worst time was landing at home base with a strong thunderstorm approaching about 15 miles away. I was landing on 27. On short final, winds were out of the SW so I put in a hefty amount of left aileron/right rudder in a side slip. Upon touching down, the wind direction abruptly shifted to the NW and became very strong, and before I could react, I was sliding to the left, desperately shifting to the appropriate wind correction but it was too late, I had lost control of the plane. I skidded to a stop just inches from the grass and a runway light. Had my mechanic check the gear and fuselage for side-loading damage, but I was lucky.

What I had encountered is called a gust front. They're associated with thunderstorms and are quite dangerous, and more than one pilot has come to grief because of them.

I wouldn't ever criticize a pilot for refusing to fly near a thunderstorm. Give them a wide berth, especially, as has been said, on the downwind side.
 
Skyrys62 said:
he said another pilot he knew, was 15 miles closer to the storms and reported (relatively) smooth air.
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I have often found that turbulence and air currents can be a lot like a river with rapids in it. You could be just a couple miles a different location and being completely smooth air or be having an absolutely terrifying ride. Same thing with the river rapids, depending on where you are even just a couple yards can make a big difference in your ride. Air is ultimately not much different from water in how it behaves.

As far as go, no go? If I'm flying with non pilot passengers I'm crazy careful. The last thing I want is for someone to have a bad experience and never want to come again. Flying can be very scary as it is for non pilot folks
 
As someone who mainly flies singles, my thoughts might not be as insightful as those who fly heavier metal. In the summer months, CB's are very common and often times can be picked around while at cruise altitude, if they're still in the building stage. Once they begin to develop into thunderstorms it gets a whole lot more iffy and it's time to call it a day, for me at least. When you see CB's and a potential T-storm in the making, plan for a bumpy ride, it's just an obvious rule of thumb, as there's a big lifting force needed for these clouds to form and that lifting force is updrafts and turbulence for the pilots.

A year or two ago, I was returning home to E TN from the Nashville area and there were thunderstorms along my entire route of flight. Some were still developing, but most were already fully developed. After this begins to occur, the visibility begins to diminish and isolated wind shear is common. It makes for an exciting flight, but not something I suggest to make a habit of. It's something that you have to treat on a case by case basis.

Always remember the saying, it's better to be on the ground wishing you were flying, rather then flying and wishing you were on the ground. During that flight, I was wishing I was on the ground.
 
You can avoid it, but it needs a bit of milage to really get around the big ones.

You'll want to ether ideally do it visually, or if IFR you'll be wanting real onboard radar, as in a radar pod
 
As stated give those things wide separation. That said, if you do long cross countries from March to October you are likely to have fronts in the picture someplace along the way. AddsB or XM can help watch things change as you get closure and with care you can frequently find a way around the storms. Never rely on AddsB or XM for where to penetrate a front, it's just "Big Picture" info. It's easier with a properly equipped IFR platform but can be done in many cases VFR.

In the end,the weather always determines what needs to be done. If the cells are scattered you can probably find a way through a frontline. If they aren't, or the picture is changing rapidly, it's time to set down and wait out the storm.

The key to me is deciding when to set down. For me, if in doubt wait it out. It doesn't matter if someone else thinks they can get through. Others saying they recommend you not try it is valuable info but don't let someone else talk you into trying a flight you don't feel good about.

If, based on your experience and equipment, you don't feel comfortable trying to get past a storm, stop. I've never regretted a decision to hold up and I'm convinced the decision probably saved my life many times.

One of the great things about flying GA is that when you have to make that unanticipated stop the odds are very good that the locals will greet you warmly, do all they can to help you, and you'll frequently find a nice place to visit that you had never thought about.

Gary
 
...plus there's always the yelling phone call on the noisy ramp that can go wrong:

"I'm stuck in Nashville by storm clouds so I can't make it in to work"

"What? What do you mean I'm fired? No wait... I said storm clouds not strip clubs"
 
If thats the only one, an EXPERIENCED pilot can fly around it. A student, no. Call ATC and ask for a weather briefing. They are usually pretty good about giving you what you need to decide. But it takes some experience to really know. At this stage you need to KNOW FOR SURE before YOU go.
 
It will kill you. Graveyard dead. It will tear your airplane apart, and you'll plunge, flailing and screaming, to a gruesome and viloent death, crushed against the earth. Unless you just rain down in bloody chunks, after being dismembered in the rending breakup of your machine.

Google "shear wave", if you're thinking about racing one of these to your destination.
 
Do not mess with cumulonimbus. I have experienced downdrafts (see mature thunderstorm cross section drawings) in excess of what the aircraft could do in a full power climb, 20 miles from them.

Mama nature will let pilots play a little in clouds but she is a complete b**** when it comes to convective activity.

And frankly, a few hundred hours ago I would have looked at that photo and said, "Oh sure, just stay a decent distance from it and if there's no more, you'll be fine." My tune has changed on this over the years.

Stay more than 20 miles from them. Period. Full stop. If you're a working stiff and have to fly around them, working weather radar is a must and tighten that seat belt, you just might be in for a wild ride.

Scott Crossfield tried it.

Once mapping weather at the time over the radar track became commonplace and popular on FlightAware and others, guess where the crash sites always are? Oh yeah, right next to the red blob.

If you fly for fun, give these a wide berth. There is not an ounce of fun to be found anywhere near them.
 
Tantalum said:
Such a sad and needless end for an epic test pilot...

There was a T28 that was outfitted to fly through t-storms, since retired I heard they are fixing up an A10 to do the same... http://www.popularmechanics.com/sci...-a-fixed-up-a-10-will-fly-into-thunderstorms/
Click to expand...

NCAR/NOAA also has has some ships outfitted over the years to purposefully go seek out getting hit by lightning strikes. One was even a sailplane.

Whoever flew that thing was half a bubble out of plumb. "Hey, if the wing gets snapped off by the thunderstorm or blown off by lightning, just bail out with that parachute you're wearing into the hail. Should be fine."
 
denverpilot said:
Whoever flew that thing was half a bubble out of plumb.
Click to expand...


Is this him????

806b307c1deea0e98d461039a331c4d1dd701559
 
denverpilot said:
NCAR/NOAA also has has some ships outfitted over the years to purposefully go seek out getting hit by lightning strikes. One was even a sailplane.

Whoever flew that thing was half a bubble out of plumb. "Hey, if the wing gets snapped off by the thunderstorm or blown off by lightning, just bail out with that parachute you're wearing into the hail. Should be fine."
Click to expand...

I got to fly in that sailplane once out of Boulder. One of my best flights ever, even though we didn't get into a wave.
They also made an iMax about it:
http://www.ucar.edu/communications/newsreleases/1996/stormch.html
 
Skyrys62 said:
ok.. it sounds like a bathroom thread...I know.
but(t)...I'm about to start my cross country and was in Nashville at KBNA yesterday evening picking someone up from the airport. I drove from Owensboro KY...about a 2 hr drive.
I would have loved to have flown down and picked them up in a small plane instead, but am not licensed yet.
As I arrived in the car I saw this guy (in the picture).
So I wondered...having no experience at all with weather (but I know this guy isn't friendly)...can you sneak around things like this and avoid them to pop in/out of an airport, or is the whole area likely turbulent and should be avoided in small craft?
I know there's a ton of variables, but I'm just new, and wondering if flying around this stuff is common?
View attachment 53206
Click to expand...

Best stay at LEAST 20 NM miles from anything like this puppy, with or without radar.
 
Skyrys62 said:
Is this him????

806b307c1deea0e98d461039a331c4d1dd701559
Click to expand...

Nah, that guy is a full bubble out of plumb.

You should hear what that idiot spent on flight ratings last year with no intent of doing anything but instructing.

He'll probably get that all to break even somewhere around 2030 or so, maybe. Or not. LOL.

This photo of him is better, though. :)

512c85db7dfc218753f3d6726e65a285.jpg


(It's Photoshopped by a local photographer. He heard I was doing laps on 17R when the F-18s departed 17L, and took his photo of me on 17R and his photo of an F-18 departing 17L and merged them... so the squishing of the depth of field of a long telephoto lens and the relative sizes are CLOSE to what he would have captured actually getting the shot, but it was definitely just slapped together for fun.)
 
Had to go up for a hop today in Navy flight school. Rained almost the whole time we were up, minus the high work. Had to dodge clouds and look for the "weakest parts" of the storm lines as we came home on course rules... Lots of fun flying back to hole field with the canopy completely covered in rain while we flew the ILS localizer down to mins before we had the runway in sight. Fun, bumpy ride in the ol' Beechcraft T-6B!
 
Cam "Camelot" Smith said:
Had to go up for a hop today in Navy flight school. Rained almost the whole time [yada yada yada]...
Click to expand...

Yer just bragg'n now! Is the Texan II (like the T34C) still exactly an arm and kneeboard's length from the IP to the back of the stud's cranial housing?

My son's a few months behind you. He's stuck in O-HARP till he classes up.
 
On the verge of cancelling my Vegas trip this weekend... plan was to go Saturday morning and come back Sunday afternoon. The winds will be howling and the ceilings don't look promising. The weekend is close enough now that it's unlikely it will suddenly clear up :-(

I can't imagine what a 29 knot surface wind through the Banning Pass would be like. No. Thank. You.

upload_2017-5-4_20-30-11.png
 
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