How safe is flying, really?

[tangopapa]

In this thread, about the guy who landed his Cherokee on the highway (next to Cherokee Rd!) after an engine out, Henning made a great comment about the perceived "safety" of aviation:

...Safety is an illusion demanded by those delusional enough to think they can cheat death. There is nothing safe about aviation, you just either deal with the emergencies or die, simple as that.

It got me thinking about the "why" and "how" of aviation accidents, fatals specifically, which is something I've been interested in for a while, even before I took my first flying lesson.

My thought has been that GA is generally as safe as the pilot. I had a discussion with my CFI about this, who also has a keen interest in this subject, and he said the number of fatal accidents primarily caused by structural or mechanical failures is so small as to be "almost inconsequential" in the discussion. Reading through publications like the Nall Report and looking through the NTSB aviation accident database seems to support that view.

I believe that Henning's statement rings true. Webster's defines emergency as "an unforeseen combination of circumstances or the resulting state that calls for immediate action." This would encompass all sorts of things that happen in aviation every day. We all know that pilots who don't keep a cool head or fly outside of their capabilities have a greater risk of death, but I'm curious specifically how many of you have had some kind of serious failure of the mechanical or structural variety while flying (and obviously lived to tell about it).

 

[Alexb2000]

I just wanted to say Henning's soft and nurturing comments really touch my heart. Don't let anyone convince you he's not a hopeless romantic. Ladies watch out for this guy and his rendition of "up where we belong" when he takes you flying.

Sorry I couldn't resist, back to topic.

 

[LDJones]

In 3,100 hours I've only scared myself by my own stupidity or lack of attention, never by the airplane. I've had mechanical issues that forced immediate action but none that weren't comfortably handled with basic private pilot skills learned pre-solo.

The risk is higher than driving, but marginally so.

 

[Tony_Scarpelli]

In 3,100 hours I've only scared myself by my own stupidity or lack of attention, never by the airplane. I've had mechanical issues that forced immediate action but none that weren't comfortably handled with basic private pilot skills learned pre-solo.

The risk is higher than driving, but marginally so.

This is exactly my experience in my 1000+ hrs.

I can't remember why or how I got this but I think that flying is equivalent in risk to motor cycle riding.

 

[Bob Noel]

Conversely, the people who couldn't handle a serious failure are usually not able to respond.

 

[Speedy]

Really ? No way I would ride a bike where population is strong. Down here in Florida is crazy to ride.

As a Police Officer I handeled many many crashes involving motorcycles. I use to say the only reason we "had" a helmet law was to keep the head inside it.

I only have 102 hrs flying but I feel very comfortable up there.

 

[tangopapa]

Conversely, the people who couldn't handle a serious failure are usually not able to respond.

Truth.

 

[brcase]

This is exactly my experience in my 1000+ hrs.

I can't remember why or how I got this but I think that flying is equivalent in risk to motor cycle riding.

Because the limited statistical numbers available seem to support that as an Average 1 hour of motorcycle riding is about as dangerous and 1 hour of flying a a GA airplane.

The thing to remember is this is the average for both groups. Riding in cities can be more dangerous than in the country or highway. Just like flying in bad weather or at low altitude is more dangerous than flying high on a nice day.

Either way you can control how risky it is to some extent.

My limited research seemed to indicate that if you avoid flying low and in bad weather that you can make your GA flying about as safe as the Average for automobiles. But of course there are things you can do to improve the your averages in automobiles also.

Brian

 

[Tony_Scarpelli]

My dumb mistakes:

As a new PPL on xcountry I landed for fuel, winds picked up and I decided to go and get the hell out of there. I nearly bit the bullet on that one.

Also new ppl on xcountry, I lost contact with ABQ FS over the mountains while on Flight following, climbed to 12500' to try and reconnect with same by the time I reached them they were overly attentive to me. I found out why when I landed my plane and had one of the ugliest landings I ever had. Turned out I was o2 starved. They must have recognized it in my voice. I had a big headache but no other symptoms. they talked me down to Willis Gateway in Phx and diverted several jets T36/37's to go around and let me cut in front of them to land.

It was dusk and I was flying VFR over the desert of NW AZ/SW Utah delivering a friends airplane. We had 2 hrs fuel and the airport was another 25-40 minutes away so we opted to go straight in. That was a bad decision. Within about 15 minutes it got so dark it was as if someone pulled the covers over my head. WE could not see the horizon, couldn't see stars, couldn't see car lights or highways as we were over the desert. The only reason we even considered attempting it was that the plane had a GPS controlled autopilot which was working great and at that moment it went black the autopilot went haywire due to a failing gyro and wouldn't keep heading. There were two pilots, so I held wings level while my brother looked up the ctaf to the airport we just flew over 3 minutes ago. He dropped my flashlight, thought i was in real trouble until I thought to use my cell phone light to see the ctaf of Page, AZ to turn the lights on to make a detour landing. I knew better than flying night over the desert but the GPS/Autopilot gave me a false set of confidence.

The last close call I had was I was helping a friend move a plane from West coast to NYC and we had three or four stops which we calculated the exact usage of fuel. The last leg we pushed it to have just under 60 minutes of fuel on landing. The airport fuel guy said we had vapors in the plane. The only thing we could figure is that my knee enriched the mixture so that our burn was higher than we had calculated. The pilot wanted to divert to another field 20 minutes away in hopes of finding more direct winds but I pushed for landing now and here since I had more time in the Comanche. I hate to image which hills/trees we would have had to crash into had the owner/PIC over ruled my advice.

I lost the gyro night VFR in the Cherokee but it was a non event. Called ATC and they gave me a non Gyro approach which was kind of cool.

 

[MachFly]

No one ever said that flying was safe, it's not. You can only try to make it safer by having very high levels of risk management.

So far I've had 2 oil leaks (one was kinda my fault and the other wasn't that big of a problem), lost power on take off (prop feathered), had a fuel leak (fuel strainer wasn't working as well as it should have) and lost radios once (could transmit but could only receive static).

 

[Tony_Scarpelli]

Because the limited statistical numbers available seem to support that as an Average 1 hour of motorcycle riding is about as dangerous and 1 hour of flying a a GA airplane.

The thing to remember is this is the average for both groups. Riding in cities can be more dangerous than in the country or highway. Just like flying in bad weather or at low altitude is more dangerous than flying high on a nice day.

Either way you can control how risky it is to some extent.

My limited research seemed to indicate that if you avoid flying low and in bad weather that you can make your GA flying about as safe as the Average for automobiles. But of course there are things you can do to improve the your averages in automobiles also.

Brian

Reading the nall report it seems you would be 1/3 less likely to ever have an accident if you just never ran out of fuel. So I have a higher fuel out minimum. While I have a 6 hr tank, I only have a 3 hr butt/seat, I still fly with full fuel most trips I land with 2 plus hours of fuel on any trip.

If you never fly into wx you can safe about 10% less likely to have an accident or CFIT and 20% less likely to die from it.

If you practice, practice, practice landings and take offs you can cut some additional 15% of accidents during take offs and landings. If you NEVER buzz your girlfriend or buddies homes another 10% of maneuvering accidents can be avoided.

Finally if you get so familiar with your aircraft so that your eyes are outward on departure and entering the traffic pattern and landing with your eyes fully open and outside the cockpit you can reduce your chance of midair collision another 15%.

 

[skidoo]

This is exactly my experience in my 1000+ hrs.

I can't remember why or how I got this but I think that flying is equivalent in risk to motor cycle riding.

I figure it like this: When I reach 1000 hours, then randomly take 99 other pilots who have reached 1000 hours, then look at the group of 100. On Average, one of us would have been involved in a fatal accident. So, you have to ask yourself a question: Do you feel luckier or more skilled than any of the other 99? You just don't want to be the bottom one out of that 100...

 

[Tony_Scarpelli]

I look at it like this. If you read the nall report which is a summery of accidents and their causes in many cases, and then you see some low lying fruit. The easy stuff to avoid.

Maybe you cannot 100% rule out some things like engine failure, instrument failure, prop failure so you do what you can to fly a safe plane within a reasonable budget but you can greatly effect everything else which are a much high % of failures anyway.

A pilot might rule out whole category of accidents thus make himself safer.

1... never run out of fuel
2... never fly in wx or night
3... practice until more then proficient in your a/c
4... understand and perform top maintenance on a/c
5... use more conservative personal minimums
6... fly with and learn from other aviators
7... never pass up a chance to fly with a CFI or more senior pilot and be open to learning
8... never figure you seen it all, know it all
9... never promise your friends you can get them some where by a certain time
10... always take your visa and be willing to rent a car to finish a trip, come back for the plane on another day.
11... hold your landing and flying skills to a higher standard even when no one but you is looking
12... train for the type of flying you will likely run into. If you go xcountry then practice less than fair winds fair weather landings.
13... use flight following get used to and use the ATC system resources to make your job easier and safer.
14... I often play this game "what if" What if gyro went out; what if altimeter went out; what if air speed when out; what engine started running rough; what if engine quit; what if smoke filled cockpit; what if winds are above my ability; what if when I change fuel tank it won't supply fuel; what if landing gear won't come down; what if temps climb; what if........ it is an interesting game and keeps you alert on long xcountry flights. I seldom have time to listen to music while flying.

 

[wabower]

Work the puzzle backwards. Few disagree that airline flying is the least-dangerous mode of transportation and accident rates for big-iron GA are almost identical to 121 operators. As the planes get smaller and less capable and pilot quals, initial and recurrent training requirements decrease until they are essentially non-existent.

If a pilot wants to be more like the big boys in terms of safety, he/she must emulate them in every way possible.

 

[onwards]

How safe is driving, anyway? biking? hiking? crossing the street for that matter?

I feel pretty darn safe flying in the context of living a modern life in a big city.

 

[Tony_Scarpelli]

I figure it like this: When I reach 1000 hours, then randomly take 99 other pilots who have reached 1000 hours, then look at the group of 100. On Average, one of us would have been involved in a fatal accident. So, you have to ask yourself a question: Do you feel luckier or more skilled than any of the other 99? You just don't want to be the bottom one out of that 100...

While not 100% true, if you make 1000 hrs you made first, second and third cut might be lucky but you probably are not a bad aviator also.

 

[Tony_Scarpelli]

How safe is driving, anyway? biking? hiking? crossing the street for that matter?

I feel pretty darn safe flying in the context of living a modern life in a big city.

True, I will take flying over Kansas rather than driving on the interstates in CA. And that is before we even consider city driving and car jacking.

 

[tangopapa]

Work the puzzle backwards. Few disagree that airline flying is the least-dangerous mode of transportation and accident rates for big-iron GA are almost identical to 121 operators. As the planes get smaller and less capable and pilot quals, initial and recurrent training requirements decrease until they are essentially non-existent.

If a pilot wants to be more like the big boys in terms of safety, he/she must emulate them in every way possible.

 

[supernovae]

If a pilot wants to be more like the big boys in terms of safety, he/she must emulate them in every way possible.

How much does an average cost 100 hour cost for single engine, 2-4 place? what do they check in this vs annual? any place describe the differences? Anyone put their personal aircraft through regular 100hour checkups or doe you only fly so much that 100 hour checks would be your 2nd year annual?

 

[John Baker]

My older brother gave me a ride out to KSEE for my very first flight in a small airplane. I just wanted to take the demo flight for something to do. After I had been given the walk around I asked if my brother could go with us, my brother was very adamant, there was no way in heck he was going to get in a small airplane.

When we got back and my brother and I were heading toward a place for lunch, he said; "I can't believe you did that."

That struck me a strange, having gone through jump, and Recondo training in the military, that was nothing compared to what I had been though in the past. I think my fear level was about the same as riding in a car..nada..nothing.

My brother refused to get in my airplane even when I had it chained to the ramp. I guess he thought I had some way of releasing the chains from inside the cockpit. Although he refused to admit that he was terrified of airplanes ("I just don't get in small airplanes. period!")

Then I thought about my sailboat and remembered that the seasickness my passengers sometimes suffered never started until the sails went up and it started healing...I think it was fear that triggered it.

I think the thing that scares people is when whatever it is they are doing, has never been done before..or they have never experienced that threshold of danger, so they do not know how, or have never had to face down their fears, at that particular level of danger.

To me, flying in a small airplane is nothing, I never even thought about the danger factor, simply because I have been through much worse. My brother is terrified because he hasn't.

Or put another way, once you have been through a storm in a sailboat, a sailboat healing in the harbor isn't even worthy of thought when danger is a consideration.

It is not that flying is dangerous or not, it is what the person perceives as dangerous that counts.

-John

 

[Tony_Scarpelli]

How much does an average cost 100 hour cost for single engine, 2-4 place? what do they check in this vs annual? any place describe the differences? Anyone put their personal aircraft through regular 100hour checkups or doe you only fly so much that 100 hour checks would be your 2nd year annual?

Since I bought a high time Cherokee with fresh annual good for 12 months, a run out engine I did a 100 hr inspection 2 months later. All the compression's went up which was a good thing. No discrepancies. Active flying helps a plane. On a Cherokee it cost about $500.

However I think Wayne is saying that the additional safety of 121 operations comes from treating the pilots the same as professional pilots with getting an IR, Commercial and on going training in simulators so you practice emergencies you cannot practice in a live plane.

 

[Threefingeredjack]

Flying is as safe as you want to make it. In GA flying I have never had a significant mechanical/structural issue. I have had fires, engine failures and bird strikes in my career, and there have been many many times when weather led me to wonder about the eventual outcome of the flight, but in GA the most significant threat to the outcome of a flight is what is happening between the ears of the pilot.

 

[tangopapa]

A lot of the replies so far encapsulate how I feel about it. I accept the risks, but in general, I feel safe while flying. I like that my proficiency, preparation, and decisions are the number one factors in my safety. If I prepare and execute within my abilities and stay within my safety margins, I don't feel "unsafe" in the least. I don't feel the same way riding a motorcycle in traffic (or even driving a car for that matter.)

 

[tangopapa]

If I prepare and execute within my abilities and stay within my safety margins, I don't feel "unsafe" in the least. I don't feel the same way riding a motorcycle in traffic (or even driving a car for that matter.)

Which is not to say I feel unsafe driving in my car. I'm just saying at least when I'm up in the air I don't have to worry about getting hit by a drunk driver or some other thing outside of my control. Not that I worry about that either. Just a comparison...

 

[Alexb2000]

I figure it like this: When I reach 1000 hours, then randomly take 99 other pilots who have reached 1000 hours, then look at the group of 100. On Average, one of us would have been involved in a fatal accident. So, you have to ask yourself a question: Do you feel luckier or more skilled than any of the other 99? You just don't want to be the bottom one out of that 100...

So you're basing that of the 1 fatality per 100,000 flight hours. However, I believe they derive that number by calculating the TOTAL fatalities per total estimated flight hours for all GA aircraft not just pilots. By your logic one family of five perishing together saves a lot of pilots lives.

The second part of that is line up 100 pilots that know each other and have flown together. Through secret ballot vote for who is most likely to crash. I imagine the results will be true to life if you just wait a few years and only in a few circumstances truly random.

 

[ClimbnSink]

More dangerous then most pilots are willing to admit. What saves us is the lack of money/time to fly. Win the lottery and fly as much and whatever you want and your odds go in the toilet.

 

[Threefingeredjack]

More dangerous then most pilots are willing to admit. What saves us is the lack of money/time to fly. Win the lottery and fly as much and whatever you want and your odds go in the toilet.

I would argue that the less you fly the higher the danger when you do eventually fly. To me, flying is overwhelmingly worth whatever risk is incurred. If it isn't for you then the answer for you is obvious.

 

[ClimbnSink]

I would argue that the less you fly the higher the danger when you do eventually fly. To me, flying is overwhelmingly worth whatever risk is incurred. If it isn't for you then the answer for you is obvious.

There is a point where repeated exposure exceeds currency. The question wasnt about personal values towards risk but the risk level.

 

[Challenged]

71% of accidents are pilot error; oddly enough, I somehow take comfort in that statistic.

 

[tangopapa]

More dangerous then most pilots are willing to admit. What saves us is the lack of money/time to fly. Win the lottery and fly as much and whatever you want and your odds go in the toilet.

I completely disagree. Maybe it's because I'm a low-time student pilot, but I would think that what "saves us" is proficiency, experience and the ability to make wise decisions. The experience doesn't even have to be first hand. The experiences of others can help guide our decisions, and from my perspective as a student pilot, must.

 

[tangopapa]

There is a point where repeated exposure exceeds currency. The question wasnt about personal values towards risk but the risk level.

OK, I understand what you're saying now. But I still don't agree. Maybe I'm naive, but aren't there GA pilots who fly every day? The biggest risk in my view is not staying sharp. I would think that the risk via "rust" would be more dangerous than "repeated exposure."

 

[skidoo]

More dangerous then most pilots are willing to admit. What saves us is the lack of money/time to fly. Win the lottery and fly as much and whatever you want and your odds go in the toilet.

I believe the odds for the risk of taking flight are the same whether you win the lotto or not. But the odds of taking flight more often are higher if you do win the lotto.. So, therefore, more of your life's time is "at risk".

 

[wabower]

Many factors contribute to decision-making, but the little guy sitting on your right shoulder doesn't always win the arguments against the other little guy on your left.

I completely disagree. Maybe it's because I'm a low-time student pilot, but I would think that what "saves us" is proficiency, experience and the ability to make wise decisions. The experience doesn't even have to be first hand. The experiences of others can help guide our decisions, and from my perspective as a student pilot, must.

 

[ClimbnSink]

OK, I understand what you're saying now. But I still don't agree. Maybe I'm naive, but aren't there GA pilots who fly every day? The biggest risk in my view is not staying sharp. I would think that the risk via "rust" would be more dangerous than "repeated exposure."

Does driving your commute every day make you a safer driver then the repeated exposure to auto accidents? Same thing different scale.

 

[Henning]

Work the puzzle backwards. Few disagree that airline flying is the least-dangerous mode of transportation and accident rates for big-iron GA are almost identical to 121 operators. As the planes get smaller and less capable and pilot quals, initial and recurrent training requirements decrease until they are essentially non-existent.

If a pilot wants to be more like the big boys in terms of safety, he/she must emulate them in every way possible.

Yep, multiple engines, excess horsepower and train frequently and till you sweat.

 

[Henning]

I completely disagree. Maybe it's because I'm a low-time student pilot, but I would think that what "saves us" is proficiency, experience and the ability to make wise decisions. The experience doesn't even have to be first hand. The experiences of others can help guide our decisions, and from my perspective as a student pilot, must.

No, what saves us is our 'wiring', we either can think when facing death or we disassociate. Read the CVR transcript from AF 447 for an interesting example of three professionally trained and proficient airline pilots who all disassociated from the emergency and failed to think or act. At 12,000' the Pilot Flying in the right seat stated, "This is really happening isn't it?".

 

[Henning]

I just wanted to say Henning's soft and nurturing comments really touch my heart. Don't let anyone convince you he's not a hopeless romantic. Ladies watch out for this guy and his rendition of "up where we belong" when he takes you flying.

Sorry I couldn't resist, back to topic.

Realist and Romantic are not mutually exclusive.

 

[Alexb2000]

Realist and Romantic are not mutually exclusive.

Out on a date... baby your fat, you don't really have an attractive face either, all that has given you really low self esteem. That is why I'm letting you buy me dinner, fill the 310 with gas, and pay for an oil change. Just getting you out in public with a guy like me will do wonders for you. Let's get real drunk, you never know what random acts of cosmic fate may shine upon you. BTW- do you like the song, "Up where we belong"?

-Henning the romantic realist

 

[Geico266]

I "grew up" flying ultra lights. Had 3 engine outs flying 2 cycle engines. It was part of the deal. Sounds dangerous, but when you figure all of Nebraska is a runway save a few center pivots and cows, life is good. Also figure all I needed to land was 100' of clear. I'm not bragging or boasting, it is just the way it was.

When I started flying "big" airplanes, I was glad I had the experiences of engine outs and off field landings. Hell, we used to land on sand bars on the Platte River for fun! ... but I digress. That experience taught me a lot about flying. I certainly hope if it happens again, "disbelief" ( like Henning said) doesn't set in.

"When all else fails..... fly the damn airplane."...... was my UL instructor's motto. It has served me well.

 

[Henning]

Out on a date... baby your fat, you don't really have an attractive face either, all that has given you really low self esteem. That is why I'm letting you buy me dinner, fill the 310 with gas, and pay for an oil change. Just getting you out in public with a guy like me will do wonders for you. Let's get real drunk, you never know what random acts of cosmic fate may shine upon you. BTW- do you like the song, "Up where we belong"?

-Henning the romantic realist

That date isn't happening, chubby and cute ok, smokin body with a butter face ok, but both, nahhh....