How much will airplane prices drop in 2020?

I haven't seen supply increasing outside the training/time building fleet. Even then, that increase is specifically due to a single flight school offloading its fleet. Gotta wait 6-12 months to see if there really has been a market moving effectin the GA market.
 
All I know is the Lances I keep watching keep getting sold. So there's that...
 
wheaties said:
I haven't seen supply increasing outside the training/time building fleet. Even then, that increase is specifically due to a single flight school offloading its fleet. Gotta wait 6-12 months to see if there really has been a market moving effectin the GA market.
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By the end of August early September we should know if the GA market is in free fall, with aircraft price not seen in years.
 
Tantalum said:
I mean, they effectively have. They've (Cessna) been pedaling the same trash for years and bought Beechcraft to remove competition. Most people would surprised to learn you can actually still buy a new Baron/Bonanza.. which, why would you? Spend a ton of money on a less capable plane than its 40 year old cheaper predecessor

The TTx could (and should) have been a Cirrus killer but Textron didn't realize you have to actually market a plane in order to sell it

Cessna/Beech display at Osh '18 was pathetic.. you really couldn't have put *less* effort into a display if you tried

Textron is focusing on corporate and commercial/turbine applications. Cessna exists strictly as a feeder for flight schools

Piper puts an earnest focus on the ga buyer individual with a nice product line for a multitude of buyers

Mooney.. if you want to go fast in a tiny plane with a panel in your face while burning little gas that's fine. Otherwise they also largely stopped innovating.. but I blame management; that composite trainer they were working on was sick. Too bad they abandoned it. Most buyers have a wife/pax who aren't aviaholics like us and don't get off on performance figures, they want something that feels new, is comfortable, and is perceived as safe
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The TTX had less useful load and no parachute. It was a little faster than a Cirrus, but no Cirrus killer.
 
Kenny Phillips said:
The TTX had less useful load and no parachute. It was a little faster than a Cirrus, but no Cirrus killer.
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..and in my opinion slightly less comfortable inside

But, many argue the underlying structural build quality is superior, and just based on the amount of anti-Cirrus sentiment out there (with the chute being a big part of it), I'd have assumed that something similar, but just different enough, would be able to sell in at least as strong numbers, if not more
 
One area not covered...

If this thing follows the worst case scenarios and lasts two years...

Some folks will gladly want to own and operate light aircraft to avoid going anywhere near an airliner or major airport.

Not a massive source of buyers but it’s an upward push for anything that can reasonably travel comfortably and safely.

A couple day trip to the coast vs ever having to go through an empty airport and TSA, to a mostly empty airliner, and a flight attendant offering one option, a can of water... which nobody touched?

Yeah I could be quite happy never doing that again.

But I won’t likely be flying as PIC before I can utilize my airplane for that, which is a minor bummer. I’ll have to return to MN before the virus thing is over with. Then it becomes a drive or fly the infected sky bus question.

At least they’re cleaning the things now. LOL.

Departing from my hangar and taking a leisurely northerly route through rural states, would be fine by me instead of DEN-MSP direct. :)
 
Tantalum said:
But, many argue the underlying structural build quality is superior, and just based on the amount of anti-Cirrus sentiment out there (with the chute being a big part of it), I'd have assumed that something similar, but just different enough, would be able to sell in at least as strong numbers, if not more
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Talk is cheap. I suspect that many of the vocal Cirrus haters will never be able to afford that class of airplane.
 
If the prices aircraft sold on ebay for April are any indication, we are in for a wild ride.
 
Blows my mind that you can buy a plane on e bay
 
I don’t see airplane prices dropping any time soon. There is a vicious cycle of uninformed people paying too much money for airplanes with ancient but low time engines. They fly them for a year or two and when the engine craps the bed they can’t afford to fix them so they sit and rot away further dwindling supply.

I looked at a 172B recently. Basic VFR plane with average paint at best but a clean interior. Engine hadn’t been overhauled since 1975 if even then. The logbook write up was pretty vague and no documents showing anything had been inspected. The guy put cylinders on it a year and a half ago and only flew it 10 hours since. It sold for 31k. Maybe you luck out and get another 1k hours. Or maybe it dies this year and you have to drop another 30k for an engine. Now you have a 60k vfr 172 with old paint. Hopefully this one works out or there will be another 172 rotting away on the ramp.
 
If you are an AOPA member, you get free access to Vref.

In regards to taking GA vs the airlines, I am thinking of going to FL in June with a friend, and I am seriously considering taking the Bonanza. The frequency of airline flights is greatly reduced, the prices aren't that great, and the thought of having to wear a mask for the entire flight is really not appealing at all.
 
WDD said:
Blows my mind that you can buy a plane on e bay
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Blows my mind that people actually buy planes on eBay. It's one thing to be able to post there, but they find customers too.
 
Todd82 said:
Blows my mind that people actually buy planes on eBay. It's one thing to be able to post there, but they find customers too.
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Why? It's no different than buying from a seller on Barnstormers. You still get every opportunity to inspect, see logs etc.
 
Todd82 said:
Blows my mind that people actually buy planes on eBay. It's one thing to be able to post there, but they find customers too.
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raises hand....done it. No different than any other media. Buyer be ware.....Mine was a good experience. Purchased a Six.....

In fact bought lots of big stuff....to include a bull dozer.
 
This forum has a higher percentage of bulldozer owners than any other I've been on....

Who'da guessed?
 
Todd82 said:
Blows my mind that people actually buy planes on eBay. It's one thing to be able to post there, but they find customers too.
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Vehicles (including aircraft) are handled quite differently than other products there. It’s not really a “Buy It Now” sorta thing. Can still inspect / use sales contracts / whatever.
 
A guy just posted a straight tail Lance on Facebook yesterday that I was interested in, but not at the price he listed. I messaged him about an hour after he posted it. He said he had a deposit in at full price and 8 others in line. So I guess aircraft prices might drop, but just not on the ones I want to buy. Typical.
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
A guy just posted a straight tail Lance on Facebook yesterday that I was interested in, but not at the price he listed. I messaged him about an hour after he posted it. He said he had a deposit in at full price and 8 others in line. So I guess aircraft prices might drop, but just not on the ones I want to buy. Typical.
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This just shows you have good taste.
 
I suspect since planes r big ticket items it will follow somewhat same trajectory as other big ticket items.
Mortgage may be extreme of this but as example there’s forbearance going on right now but I see on a lot of real estate investing forums that everything’s going to S the bed at least 3rd/4th quarter this year into next year the hardest. People already not making payments and someone gotta get stuck with the bill. Doubt it’s going to be the banks.
Interesting to see plane prices by late/end of 2020 not now. It takes time to build up inventory so it becomes a buyers market. This is same process in any big ticket item market that I’ve seen.
Would like to see a an experienced plane dealer perspective on the market. I bet it’s similar to say boat dealer.
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
A guy just posted a straight tail Lance on Facebook yesterday that I was interested in, but not at the price he listed. I messaged him about an hour after he posted it. He said he had a deposit in at full price and 8 others in line. So I guess aircraft prices might drop, but just not on the ones I want to buy. Typical.
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I saw it too. Looks like a nice one.
 
According to Tom Haines on AOPA Live this week, AOPA is reporting a 20% increase in loan applications for the month of April. Understand things can change quickly, I think seeing the data associated with loan applications for January to end of May 2020 and for the same period for 2019 might tell a more accurate story. The other thing is that people who really want to buy boats and airplanes either have the resources to do so or can find the resources. Those on the shoulder of the income/assets curve do not. I am continually amazed at the number of people who have either serious money or access to the same. I have recently encountered people here in the CDA area buying their 3rd house meaning they currently own 2 others and we’re not taking about houses below $2M. Finally, if the “My Pillow” guy can afford a Falcon 50, what holding us back?
 
People are expecting this dynamic to flush out too quickly. That's a bit un-nuanced.

I remember the 2008 reset. I was buying a 40% discounted airplane in 2013 as a result of layoff/illiquidity/et al dynamics that began in 2009 for the selling parties involved. IOW, give it a second. Fall/winter inventories always tell the tale. We haven't even been through one fall inventory cycle since covid.
 
Jumpmaster said:
According to Tom Haines on AOPA Live this week, AOPA is reporting a 20% increase in loan applications for the month of April. Understand things can change quickly, I think seeing the data associated with loan applications for January to end of May 2020 and for the same period for 2019 might tell a more accurate story. The other thing is that people who really want to buy boats and airplanes either have the resources to do so or can find the resources. Those on the shoulder of the income/assets curve do not. I am continually amazed at the number of people who have either serious money or access to the same. I have recently encountered people here in the CDA area buying their 3rd house meaning they currently own 2 others and we’re not taking about houses below $2M. Finally, if the “My Pillow” guy can afford a Falcon 50, what holding us back?
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I would be very interested to see the actual approval of loans not just applications. Also if people have the resources for buying planes then they don’t need to apply for loans imo. If they r then it’s for leverage and the banking industry going to tighten up real quick. Banking getting hit on all sides right now. Also interested seeing global sales numbers and how different markets r affected. Below I am mostly focused on US market.


Yes this is Commercial Real Estate so take it for what you want as far as aviation. I just feel like if real estate not going to function how is ancillary market like aviation going to.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/r...ial-landlords-issue-thousands-default-notices

38+ million filing for unemployment in the last couple months
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-...y-1-4-american-workers-has-filed-unemployment

I know this is auto industry but do planes correlate as a parallel industry?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hertz-files-bankruptcy-lockdowns-crush-rental-car-industry

Is this possibly a sign of airline industry?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/faa-approves-cargo-ride-passenger-seats

The headlines go on and on. Not seeing any stop of this flood in anytime soon myself. Maybe someone else is seeing an upside to all this that I’m not seeing for all industries including aviation. I hate the doom and gloom stuff but this is a reset the likes of which the modern world hasn’t seen since maybe ww2. And we r in the start of it not the end. I see pain as spending slows down hard and savings becomes more of a need now. On top of that the middle of the road person who is tiptoeing into aviation is going to be wiped out. It will be more have or have not with less of a have I suspect which means less planes sold.

Long term this is a golden opportunity the likes of which haven’t been seen since industrial revolution. As Geopolitics are changing extremely rapidly where there is change there is always opportunity. It’s just a matter of who is going to seize the opportunities as they arise.
 
One upside is indeed very low interest rates and that is certainly an area where many of us can benefit - whether its an airplane purchase or another significant purchase. Contrary to some reports, the home and Refi market seems to be going a bit nuts in some areas. One of my neighbors just sold their $815K house in a week, with 10 offers, driven by low inventory and interest rates under 3%. Also, FWIW I just rented out a place in one day, 21 applicants, although with rent about 10% below market at $2800/month (I value a choice of tenants and stability over maxing out the rent)

I’m refinancing our house which will free up several hundred $ per month, and others are doing the same.

You can hope but I don’t see light aircraft values changing much, other than a few bargains popping up here and there. I say keep your eyes open and strike if the opportunity presents itself - but don’t expect miracles.
 
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Syner01 said:
38+ million filing for unemployment in the last couple months
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If what I am seeing and hearing about food service employees is any indication, don’t expect that number to fall to much until the $600 per week CARES Act bucks run out. Both establishments on my favorite beach are closed, but the employees are enjoying a beach party every day without a care in the world. Can’t blame them that much.

My daughter is in the same boat, she’s using the time to knock out some flying lessons when the weather permits. But, $600 or not, she’ll go back to work as soon as her restaurant opens, she misses the people.
 
Syner01 said:
Also if people have the resources for buying planes then they don’t need to apply for loans imo.
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They may still do so even if they don't need to if the rate is low enough. Keep cash in the bank or invest elsewhere. Not me, but its an approach.
 
Seeing an entire post above full of zerohedge links makes me want to hurl.

Have people not figured out yet just how bad that site is?

They had nearly zero credibility before Covid... now piles of newly interested eyeballs bored at home are “finding them” but not their rather sketchy history... and re-posting them.

Most serious financial forums and such, they’d been body slammed so many times, nobody linked to them anymore.
 
catmandu said:
If what I am seeing and hearing about food service employees is any indication, don’t expect that number to fall to much until the $600 per week CARES Act bucks run out. Both establishments on my favorite beach are closed, but the employees are enjoying a beach party every day without a care in the world. Can’t blame them that much.

My daughter is in the same boat, she’s using the time to knock out some flying lessons when the weather permits. But, $600 or not, she’ll go back to work as soon as her restaurant opens, she misses the people.
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Hence why I said we won’t see impact until late this or early next year. These things don’t fall overnight. It takes time for inventory to build up for instance.
 
denverpilot said:
Seeing an entire post above full of zerohedge links makes me want to hurl.

Have people not figured out yet just how bad that site is?

They had nearly zero credibility before Covid... now piles of newly interested eyeballs bored at home are “finding them” but not their rather sketchy history... and re-posting them.

Most serious financial forums and such, they’d been body slammed so many times, nobody linked to them anymore.
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Your personal distaste for the messenger doesn’t change the message. If u want I will link directly to the data. It doesn’t change. Hertz filing for ch11 is not a zerohedge article. It is hertz as an example. My statements stand.
 
atbroome said:
They may still do so even if they don't need to if the rate is low enough. Keep cash in the bank or invest elsewhere. Not me, but its an approach.
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Hence why I said leverage. Banks liquidity is going to dry up soon and who’s going to lend then?
 
Tusayan said:
One upside is indeed very low interest rates and that is certainly an area where many of us can benefit - whether its an airplane purchase or another significant purchase. Contrary to some reports, the home and Refi market seems to be going a bit nuts in some areas. One of my neighbors just sold their $815K house in a week, with 10 offers, driven by low inventory and interest rates under 3%. Also, FWIW I just rented out a place in one day, 21 applicants, although with rent about 10% below market at $2800/month (I value a choice of tenants and stability over maxing out the rent)

I’m refinancing our house which will free up several hundred $ per month, and others are doing the same.

You can hope but I don’t see light aircraft values changing much, other than a few bargains popping up here and there. I say keep your eyes open and strike if the opportunity presents itself - but don’t expect miracles.
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To me the values change similar to other big ticket items. If inventory grows and out supply demand then we will have a back log. If people r out of work cheap money not going to mean much once the government spicket is turned off. There is a compound effect. Everything you said above is now. I said it will take towards end of year to feel the affect. We’ve been printing money like monopoly and doing QE like a crack addict hence your cheap rates. Your value goes down and wealth is exfiltrated long term with this methodology. You think your on a gravy train until the train goes off the rails.
I see the market like an old Mike Tyson saying. Everyone had a plan until I punched them in the face. This global reset is the Mike Tyson punch heard around the world.
There is an economic dance going on right now all over the world. I have no crystal ball but definitely see huge economic and financial changes going on around me at a macro scale unlike any I’ve seen before. Just a short list: property taxes rising exponentially in my area, QE messing with rates to the point that some banks have negative interest rates and r charging customers to keep money with them, stimulus bills that make the Tarp bailout look like kids play, tens of millions of people out of work (more than Great Depression?), food supply disruptions, logistics disruptions (Amazon delays), forebearance on mortgages (if majority r doing great on mortgages like couple posters above why would the govt and banks even provide this program/option...), renters defaulting because there’s a moratorium on evictions/collections in many states, insolvent state pension plans (take Illinois or nj as examples), retail and restaurant apocalypse, I can keep going on and on. I have never seen this bizarro world stuff in all my life.

Maybe this will make more sense to people. Textron (Beechcraft, Cessna, Hawker) stock. Check out the 40+% drop in 1yr...
 
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Syner01 said:
Your personal distaste for the messenger doesn’t change the message. If u want I will link directly to the data. It doesn’t change. Hertz filing for ch11 is not a zerohedge article. It is hertz as an example. My statements stand.
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No doubt Hertz filing bankruptcy is real news. It’s all over other sites not known for being mostly BS.

ZH isn’t really just a “messenger” as much as they’re a “manipulator”. So let’s not pretend they’re just a conduit. Like many, they mix in obvious articles to the mix to try to enhance their credibility.

I had nothing to say about your statements.

Just that ZH is the financial equivalent to Medium as a source that anybody actively involved in finance discussions usually references, just as Medium is mostly garbage barely a step above a basement blogger.

:)
 
denverpilot said:
No doubt Hertz filing bankruptcy is real news. It’s all over other sites not known for being mostly BS.

ZH isn’t really just a “messenger” as much as they’re a “manipulator”. So let’s not pretend they’re just a conduit. Like many, they mix in obvious articles to the mix to try to enhance their credibility.

I had nothing to say about your statements.

Just that ZH is the financial equivalent to Medium as a source that anybody actively involved in finance discussions usually references, just as Medium is mostly garbage barely a step above a basement blogger.

:)
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Understood thanks. It was a quick single place to grab the points from. Same like 90+% of the other ‘news’ or ‘information’ sites out there. I could say the same about almost any site anyone posts. My points are the same. Best of luck in this craziness.
 
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Syner01 said:
Hence why I said leverage. Banks liquidity is going to dry up soon and who’s going to lend then?
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Why would you expect this when the Federal Reserve (and its global counterparts) is now underwriting the entire credit market to prevent exactly this?

Money for nothing...;)
 
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hindsight2020 said:
People are expecting this dynamic to flush out too quickly. That's a bit un-nuanced.

I remember the 2008 reset. I was buying a 40% discounted airplane in 2013 as a result of layoff/illiquidity/et al dynamics that began in 2009 for the selling parties involved. IOW, give it a second. Fall/winter inventories always tell the tale. We haven't even been through one fall inventory cycle since covid.
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+1

I bought my Aztec in the winter of '11/'12. Prices for light twins had collapsed 3 years earlier under the weight of $150 crude oil, and never came back. Still haven't.
A lot of the stats in light GA have still not returned to pre-financial crisis levels. Even Cirrus isn't selling as many airplanes today as it did in 2007, some 13 years ago.

This current downturn could be quite a long lasting ride.
  • Might see a rising demand for good cross country private airplanes, like the Lance example above, for pilots wanting to avoid taking the family on short haul Commercial to see the grandparents, etc.;
  • May finally see the stupidly overinflated prices for poor examples of 172s come down as the flight training industry high grade & shrink their fleets for a lower volume of activity;
  • Could see a nice improvement in personal use rental airplane and charter demand;
  • There may be an increase in corporate air traffic, either owned, charter or Netjets-type timeshare (will the lowly Piper Navajo be in demand again - or maybe that's a PC-12 market now?).
 
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GRG55 said:
+1

I bought my Aztec in the winter of '11/'12. Prices for light twins had collapsed 3 years earlier under the weight of $150 crude oil, and never came back. Still haven't.
A lot of the stats in light GA have still not returned to pre-financial crisis levels. Even Cirrus isn't selling as many airplanes today as it did in 2007, some 13 years ago.

This current downturn could be quite a long lasting ride.
  • Might see a rising demand for good cross country private airplanes, like the Lance example above, for pilots wanting to avoid taking the family on short haul Commercial to see the grandparents, etc.;
  • May finally see the stupidly overinflated prices for poor examples of 172s come down as the flight training industry high grade & shrink their fleets for a lower volume of activity;
  • Could see a nice improvement in personal use rental airplane and charter demand;
  • There may be an increase in corporate air traffic, either owned, charter or Netjets-type timeshare (will the lowly Piper Navajo be in demand again - or maybe that's a PC-12 market now?).
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So what you're saying is I should buy an Aztec. Hmmmm....
 
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