How much do you worry about scattered thunderstorms?

[neilw2]

Isolated and Scattered I'll deal with if I'm VMC or have actual radar. If I'm IMC, the student wants to be IMC or I have to be IMC and no radar it's a GIANT NO!!!. I get the , "We have ADS-B or We can use ATC/FSS" or the "I'm tired of waiting all day to not fly because your to picky" during training. In the airline it's the passengers complaining.

I've actually almost had a blanket party on a crew I commuted on. The two pilots almost had 10 pilots and their flight attendants about to beat them for taking off through a squall line.

Here's a question I always have regarding insuring VMC...

Lets assume the following:

-Convective SIGMET Outlook active

-Cloud bases 2,000ft OVC AGL in general area of airport

-No PIREPS regarding cloud tops

-Area forecast calls for tops at 5,000ft with occasional tops to FL30 (where there would be convective activty in those areas)

How do I know for sure I can stay VMC? Would you launch IFR and climb until you are out of the layer and turn back if you don't pop out of the clouds at 5 or 6 thousand? Or not launch at all because I can't safely stay below the layer?

 

[somorris]

I hate to hear the bad news, Drotto. Hopefully, the fix won't be too expensive!

Just for reference, I am like a lot here have said. Especially for a fun weekend trip for which you can get refunds on the hotels, etc., I would not cancel until the day of. The weather prognosticators just have a really hard time being accurate beyond a day or so, or so it seems to me. Some weather sites also have an estimate of how accurate they think the TS prediction is, which is helpful. I haven't needed to use it in a while and can't remember whether it was LockMart or the NWS Aviation Weather Center off the top of my head. You might want to spend a little time poking around, so to speak.

 

[somorris]

I would stay under the clouds, but that is just me.

 

[Shawn]

I was working with one of my customers who made a trip in a single-engine piston aircraft from the east coast to the west coast over a two day period and just landed a few minutes ago in LA. Despite the amount of convection that occurred over that route within that two day period, he only had a few minor deviations...

...For this cross country trip, success was all about the integration of these forecasts along with a good understanding of the synoptic overview (big picture).

I was about to post this EXACT scenario...I flew from FL to CA and somewhere around New Mexico on day two we put down for lunch. Isolated thunderstorms were starting to build and close in...fast. Forecast and radar info was looking bleak on the iPad and we were literally in the middle of nowhere with no services to be stranded. We noticed a hole and decided to make a run for the next airport about 30 miles up where there was at least a restaurant and hotel.

Once we got in the air and I saw what was actually happening in the sky it was "oh, is THAT all it is?"...we never put down and were abel to make it all the way to Las Vegas comfortably in VMC while dodging the isolated storms along the way.

Long story short, forecast are just ONE tool to base a go/no go decision on amongst a lot of other information, including your eyes. I trained in central Florida during August...if we relied solely on thunderstorm forecast alone we would never have left the ground all summer!

...that is also where I learned to do a rolling run up as my CFI and I were attempting to beat an isolated storm back to our home base!

 

[timwinters]

Did 3.5 hours today VFR from SE MO to extreme E OH (2G2) @ 7500 to 9500...altitude dictated by the clouds.

I wish flightaware was still tracking VFR FF flights but they're not. If they were then my flight track today would have looked like:



ALWAYS maintain a back door.

I'm not sure I can adequately describe how much more challenging, stimulating, satisfying and validating a trip like today's is than any that's made on a CAVU day.

ALWAYS maintain a back door.

Today was one of those days when it was far safer to remain clear of clouds than to meander into them. Far too many imbedded TSs for my taste.

ALWAYS maintain a back door.

 

[bluesky74656]

My preferred route is to get up above most of the clouds and then deviate around any build ups that are higher than I am. I'm generally cruising in cool, smooth air, and I'm above the haze and low clouds so I can see where the buildup are.

If I couldn't get above the clouds I'd be using ADS-B to stay far away from any cells, but my experience of the scattered to isolated type storms were talking about is that they're scattered enough to have clear air around them.

 

[James331]

Here's a question I always have regarding insuring VMC...

Lets assume the following:

-Convective SIGMET Outlook active

-Cloud bases 2,000ft OVC AGL in general area of airport

-No PIREPS regarding cloud tops

-Area forecast calls for tops at 5,000ft with occasional tops to FL30 (where there would be convective activty in those areas)

How do I know for sure I can stay VMC? Would you launch IFR and climb until you are out of the layer and turn back if you don't pop out of the clouds at 5 or 6 thousand? Or not launch at all because I can't safely stay below the layer?

I'd fly it VFR, guessing you don't have onboard radar, I'd see and avoid. Also why can't you safely operate at 2kAGL?

 

[neilw2]

I'd fly it VFR, guessing you don't have onboard radar, I'd see and avoid. Also why can't you safely operate at 2kAGL?

Good point, I guess you could bounce around down low but I can't see that as fun if you are going anywhere in any real distance- like over 100 miles

 

[James331]

Dude!!!

Low and slow (or fast) is where it's at.

It's rare I break 1500AGL with my own plane

 

[Hank S]

Dude!!!

Low and slow (or fast) is where it's at.

It's rare I break 1500AGL with my own plane

When I'm traveling, I pass through 1500 agl only in the vicinity of my departure and destination fields. Just went 430-odd nm each way last weekend, 9000 msl outbound and 6000 msl into the wind coming home. Descended and deviated madly around build ups to reach home, too.

 

[Jay Honeck]

Dude!!!

Low and slow (or fast) is where it's at.

It's rare I break 1500AGL with my own plane

In South Texas, 1500 AGL is like being inside a popcorn popper at this time of year.

Thankfully, our RV-8 can rocket up to the nice, smooth and cool levels quickly. Yesterday it was 111 degrees on the ramp in Brenham, TX, but a gorgeous 71 degrees at 10,500', where we cruised above the afternoon buildups all the way home.

 

[Hank S]

In South Texas, 1500 AGL is like being inside a popcorn popper at this time of year.

Thankfully, our RV-8 can rocket up to the nice, smooth and cool levels quickly. Yesterday it was 111 degrees on the ramp in Brenham, TX, but a gorgeous 71 degrees at 10,500', where we cruised above the afternoon buildups all the way home.

That's how Mobile was on Saturday at noon, but 68 comfortable degrees at 7500 msl.

 

[James331]

They'll revoke my SES if I start taking my plane above 2k with floats

 

[MAKG1]

I'd fly it VFR, guessing you don't have onboard radar, I'd see and avoid. Also why can't you safely operate at 2kAGL?

Umm, 1500 AGL unless it's the very rare Class G at that altitude.

Depends. I wouldn't cross even a very low pass at that altitude, or fly around large obstructions. But I certainly have done that over a large flat valley.

 

[James331]

I get what you're saying.

Thought process for me, going IMC, or even between solid layers, with embedded CBs is not good, especially without real onboard radar, double especially true in a plane that can't climb over 1500fpm well into the FLs.

Depending on the terrain and wind, I'd sooner just skirt under the clouds, I can keep one eye on them and the other eye on the ground, stuff gets too real and I'll just find a airport or a nice off airport place to set down a wait for a while.

 

[somorris]

I get what you're saying.

Thought process for me, going IMC, or even between solid layers, with embedded CBs is not good, especially without real onboard radar, double despecially true in a plane that can't climb over 1500fpm well into the FLs.

Depending on the terrain and wind, I'd sooner just skirt under the clouds, I can keep one eye on them and the other eye on the ground, stuff gets too real and I'll just find a airport or a nice off airport place to set down a wait for a while.

That is my thinking also, James.

 

[JOhnH]

I like seeing "scattered thunderstorms; cumulonimbus" in the 5 day forecast, because I know it will change to something else. If it looks fine 5 days out, it will probably go to hell by time I fly.

 

[Sundancer]

I filed IFR out of Jacksonville NC last summer, mid-afternnon,north bound to DC, flying a 172 with Aera "radar". The storms were scattered, but doing that standard west-to-east thing. Long story short, I dropped back down low, as the puffies were getting too thick the see the situation real well. Rougher ride, but less stress. Based on the Aera, I was about to ask for a deviation when the controller offered one. The Aera was real close to matching my eyeballs. But if the ceiling had been lower, I'd have diverted and called it a day.

I really, really want to see those puppies, and you can't see 'em when you're in the clag.

 

[James331]

I'd also trust my eyes over ATCs onscreen radar 10'times out of 10.

Trust my onboard radar over ATCs too 9 times out of 10 for shorter range stuff.

 

[James331]

Yeah, for how rare a microburst of that level is, plus even at 5k, hitting a microburst is going to be bad news for most any plane, go a small GA trainer type; likely devastating

 

[James331]

Id still take low level visual in most GA planes over altitude with fewer outs and relying on old ADSB/XM radar in the soup

 

[RyanB]

Here's a question I always have regarding insuring VMC...

Lets assume the following:

-Convective SIGMET Outlook active

-Cloud bases 2,000ft OVC AGL in general area of airport

-No PIREPS regarding cloud tops

-Area forecast calls for tops at 5,000ft with occasional tops to FL30 (where there would be convective activty in those areas)

How do I know for sure I can stay VMC? Would you launch IFR and climb until you are out of the layer and turn back if you don't pop out of the clouds at 5 or 6 thousand? Or not launch at all because I can't safely stay below the layer?

Assume the worst, a lot of times TAF's are just about as accurate as the Weather Channel. If it were me in this situation, I'd go ahead and file but launch VFR. If its doable VFR great, but if it isn't you'll already have an IFR on file.

 

[Kritchlow]

Zero

(I think I have the correct thread now)

 

[Kritchlow]

Id still take low level visual in most GA planes over altitude with fewer outs and relying on old ADSB/XM radar in the soup

Really?? I I just don't think your airplane flys high enough.

 

[James331]

Really?? I I just don't think your airplane flys high enough.

My personal plane, haven't cracked 10k with it.

Never seen a plane with floats in the flight levels lol

 

[deonb]

My personal plane, haven't cracked 10k with it.

Never seen a plane with floats in the flight levels lol

 

[Dennis McKim]

View attachment 47041

Well, if you are going to go for that "look," then...

 

[mondtster]

When I'm traveling, I pass through 1500 agl only in the vicinity of my departure and destination fields. Just went 430-odd nm each way last weekend, 9000 msl outbound and 6000 msl into the wind coming home. Descended and deviated madly around build ups to reach home, too.

I just got back from a 2000 mile trip, all done at 1500 AGL or less. There was plenty of weather I would have had to deviate around if I went higher, down low I could go pretty much direct. There were some bumps, but nothing bad. I'd take the bumps any day over having to deviate all over the place, plus the scenery was better down low.

 

[TexasAviation]

I'm still a low-time VFR pilot (215 hours) ... so take this for what it's worth.

Until recently, I was just like you. Even a hint of rain in the forecast, and I'd be canceling flights. I'd look at the seven-day forecast and see a 40% chance of thunderstorms one day and think, "Well, guess I won't be flying that day." I pretty much limited myself to perfect, blue-sky days because I thought it was risky to do otherwise.

In the past few months, though, I've gotten more comfortable with marginal weather. The difference is actually seeing it and flying in it for the first few times, including flying through rain. If you're careful (and that's a big if), it's not risky.

Like others have said, you need to always have an out. If you know where there's good, solid VFR weather, you'll be much more comfortable with it. I'd recommend taking off from your home field where it's clear skies and doing a cross-country flight to find some marginal weather ... nothing dangerous, just some light rain or low, broken cloud layers. Fly close to it, see what it looks like, and know you can always turn around to get back to blue skies at home if needed.

The more experience you get with it, the easier it is to tell what's scary and what's easy peasy.

Example: I used to think a "marginal VFR" low broken cloud layer (like we see all the time in the mornings in South Texas) meant "you really should have an IFR rating to fly here." But in reality, it means "you'll just fly at a low altitude until you can poke up through a legal-size hole in the clouds."

That's assuming that the trend is for conditions to get better. If you're flying in iffy weather and things start to get worse ... well ... then you really could need that instrument rating. You've got to use a combination of weather knowledge and common sense to know the difference. Are the cloud bases getting higher or lower? Are the temperature/dewpoint spreads getting bigger or smaller? Are the storms strengthening, weakening or staying consistent on radar? Put all this together, plus what you see with your eyes, and you can make a good, safe decision.

 

[Doggtyred]

I am planing on doing trip this weekend of about 2 hours VFR. I know long range weather stinks. Hell short range weather can stink. At this point they are projecting scattered showers and thunderstorm possible. Five or so days out is this enough to scrub the trip yet? Even if the weather is predicting a possibility of scattered TS, how many would still plan on flying (remember this is VFR)? My passengers are well aware that safety is my first consideration.

Scattered TS? you should be able to fly around them safely... Keep a wide berth because hail can come in the clear areas under the anvil... This should be a morning of flight decision... but follow the prog charts, Sigmets and TAF's along your proposed route.

 

[midlifeflyer]

I just got back from a 2000 mile trip, all done at 1500 AGL or less. There was plenty of weather I would have had to deviate around if I went higher, down low I could go pretty much direct. There were some bumps, but nothing bad. I'd take the bumps any day over having to deviate all over the place, plus the scenery was better down low.

High or low is one of those options that are tools in our flight bag. I generally prefer to fly higher whatever the situation: always have since my student days. But that will change with the situation.

When it comes to scattered storms, for me the choice has a lot to do with visibility. If I can fly at an altitude where I can maintain visual separation from the storms, I'd prefer the smoother air up there, particularly with a passenger. If not, I'd prefer to be below where I can see the dark areas and rain shafts and accept the bumps.