How Accurate are Foreflight TAF's?

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Murrgh

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Murrgh
I'm supposed to solo from 8am-10am tomorrow morning. We've had to cancel due to winds, and looking at the TAF for tomorrow it doesn't look any better. How accurate are these???

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Foreflight is just the portal you are receiving the TAF through. They don't make the forecasts. TAF is TAF, no matter what site you are using to view it, although Foreflight is an FAA-approved briefing source.
 
ateamer said:
Foreflight is just the portal you are receiving the TAF through. They don't make the forecasts. TAF is TAF, no matter what site you are using to view it, although Foreflight is an FAA-approved briefing source.
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I understand, just curious how accurate this is


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Murrgh said:
I understand, just curious how accurate this is


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It's as accurate as you're going to get. The folks putting them in are pretty good guessers. If you were to slide it and bend some metal, it's probably what the FAA will look at and discuss.

Don't sweat it too much just yet, wake up in the morning, then look at the METAR/TAF.

Accepting a "no go" is a good thing to learn, and it's typically a free lesson :)
 
Here is a question... if you're doing pattern work and it's 1000' broken (AGL) and the clouds are right at pattern altitude... what altitude do you need to be legally in class E/D/C?

On that note... don't sweat it. I canceled more than one solo as a student because of winds. Heck, I've canceled more than one flight as an isntrument pilot because of winds. There is plenty of time.
 
All forecasts are highly educated guesses. Mother Nature regularly shows us we don't fully understand her. But when you're within 24 hours they're pretty good guesses.
 
LDJones said:
All forecasts are highly educated guesses. Mother Nature regularly shows us we don't fully understand her. But when you're within 24 hours they're pretty good guesses.
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I don't think I've ever looked at a TAF the night before then landed in wind that was exactly as they were predicting, VERY close but not exactly. They're close enough to flight plan around, but I've made plenty of flights that looked unlikely the night before. In my experience the winds are TYPICALLY not as bad at the instant I land than they were predicted to be the night before. My guess is that they're posting as bad as they think it's going to get for that time period. On rare occasions, they have been worse.

With that said, the CFI will likely throw a little common sense into the mix before hopping out of the plane. BUT, If the METAR/TAF is reporting a G21, I wouldn't expect to solo, even it's calm. He probably doesn't want to answer the question "Why did you let him fly with a 21 knot gusting winds" :D
 
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