Haven't flown since 2012 - what's changed?

[Clip4]

I have never seen anyone charged to attend an AOPA seminar.

Check out the AOPA site for the mentioned seminar. You have to be an AOPA member or the cost is $69. There are other seminars now that AOPA charges members.

 

[Jay Honeck]

I just googled and couldn't find the numbers. Where did you get them?

I've owned aviation themed hotels for 15 years, and I fly a GA plane over 100 times a year. The traffic count is way down.

Demographics are hard to beat. In that time, we've lost the WWII and Korean War pilots. That was a huge chunk of our active GA pilot base.

 

[dell30rb]

If you get an appropriate antenna you can for free receive radar and weather on a tablet or iPad. I picked up a used Stratus antenna for this purpose for I think $100.

The stratus I units are going for about $175 on ebay. Mine is still going strong. Absolutely worth every penny. I don't know how I got along without it.

 

[172andyou]

I've owned aviation themed hotels for 15 years, and I fly a GA plane over 100 times a year. The traffic count is way down.

Demographics are hard to beat. In that time, we've lost the WWII and Korean War pilots. That was a huge chunk of our active GA pilot base.

Ok, so anecdotal evidence aside (it's possible that your airport and hotel are getting hit harder than the rest of GA), the picture looks better.

In 2012 there were 24.4M hours flown nationwide (according to GAMA).
In 2016 there were 23.3M

So a decline of 4%. I don't know if I would call that "way down".

In Texas, number of aircraft were up over 10%. So maybe it's your area and anecdotal information proves again to not be the best?

 

[steingar]

The stratus I units are going for about $175 on ebay. Mine is still going strong. Absolutely worth every penny. I don't know how I got along without it.

You can use your radio to get the wx reports displayed via the Stratus, but nothing beats the radar. I used to get it through Sirius XM, but cancelling that subscription was one of the most pleasant experiences in my memory. Never have I seen such a dysfunctional company.

 

[hindsight2020]

so wait a minute, number of aircraft are up, but hangars are down/waitlists are up? But people become discouraged from participating outright when they can't find a hangar near by. What gives?

 

[Jay Honeck]

Ok, so anecdotal evidence aside (it's possible that your airport and hotel are getting hit harder than the rest of GA), the picture looks better.

In 2012 there were 24.4M hours flown nationwide (according to GAMA).
In 2016 there were 23.3M

So a decline of 4%. I don't know if I would call that "way down".

In Texas, number of aircraft were up over 10%. So maybe it's your area and anecdotal information proves again to not be the best?

I don't want to go down the statistical road that has been beaten to death here so many times. Suffice it to say that the methodology behind that "number of hours flown" statistic is suspect.

I do, however, trust my observations, and our sales numbers. One tiny data point: We've flown the last two days, and can report that the number of other GA aircraft seen or heard was exactly zero, on two gorgeous July days. This is the "new normal" -- it's what we now expect when we fly -- but would have been extraordinarily abnormal just 5 years ago.

I can also tell you that we just had our best June ever at our aviation themed hotel -- and our courtesy car did not move for over 3 weeks. Again, that would have been unheard of just a few years ago.

(Now, this week it's been used 4 of the last 5 days, which is nice. I was on the verge of selling it.)

We have seen explosive growth over the last 5 years at our airport (TP McCampbell -- KTFP), with hangars being built at a nice clip. Most of them are full, which is, again, terrific. (This building spurt was in response to the absolute refusal of Port Aransas to build new hangars at KRAS.)

However, this has not translated into more GA flying. Mary and I virtually live at the airport. (We have an apartment in the hangar that we could live in, except for this pesky "work" thing. lol) It is sadly not uncommon for us to not see another open hangar door for days. In fact, we have never seen over 80% of the hangars open, ever.

Again, this would have been extraordinarily unusual just a few years ago.

Remember, this is all comparing to just 5 years ago, which was already a slack period of diminished GA flying. If you want to compare to 10 or 20 years ago, the decline is truly jarring.

There are, of course, pockets of busier airspace where, if you didn't know better, you would swear GA was booming. Austin and Dallas, for example, have attracted huge numbers of homebuilt plane owners. If you lived and flew there, you would never know the bigger picture.

But that's an illusion. For 7 years we have made it a point to visit different GA airports around Texas. Most are now unstaffed. All but a few are dying.

 

[172andyou]

I don't want to go down the statistical road that has been beaten to death here so many times. Suffice it to say that the methodology behind that "number of hours flown" statistic is suspect.

Particularly when they disagree with your anecdotal evidence, I bet.

I do, however, trust my observations, and our sales numbers.

Ok, here's my observation. I saw more people flying last summer than I ever had previously. Airventure is still going gangbusters. The restaurant by me was SRO with 22 planes last Saturday.

Should I extrapolate from that that aviation is back up to 1970's numbers?

 

[Jay Honeck]

Particularly when they disagree with your anecdotal evidence, I bet.



Ok, here's my observation. I saw more people flying last summer than I ever had previously. Airventure is still going gangbusters. The restaurant by me was SRO with 22 planes last Saturday.

Should I extrapolate from that that aviation is back up to 1970's numbers?

Nope. But our experiences and observations are not equivalent, qualitatively.

Unless you've owned two aviation themed fly-in hotels for the last 15 years, and didn't happen to mention it? lol

 

[Ghery]

Nick, welcome back to the skies. Yes, some things have changed, but it won't take you long to come up to speed. You're already familiar with "line up and wait" and you heard about the change to the name of the A/FD, but the content hasn't changed all that much. And there are still a number of us dinosaurs who carry paper (and can give you good technical reasons why we do, mostly because we've been working with computers and technology so long that we don't trust it totally), but love the new toys in the panel. Do a little reading, get your medical up to date, grab a CFI and go fly!

 

[Radar Contact]

Ok, so anecdotal evidence aside (it's possible that your airport and hotel are getting hit harder than the rest of GA), the picture looks better.

In 2012 there were 24.4M hours flown nationwide (according to GAMA).
In 2016 there were 23.3M

So a decline of 4%. I don't know if I would call that "way down".

In Texas, number of aircraft were up over 10%. So maybe it's your area and anecdotal information proves again to not be the best?

I think it's tough (for GAMA or anyone else) to get actual total data as many GA hours flown are based on a wild guess (not reported).

I started flying about 18 years ago. In my opinion, it is like Jay suggests and there seems to be less GA activity over the last almost 2 decades.

There will not be a 100% factual way to provide exact data on this. I ran 2 GA airports that I've flown into a bit using actual (not WAG) numbers pulling FAA data for PDK and PWK. Between 1999 and 2016 PDK is down 33% and PWK is down 63% GA operations in that time period. I'm certain you can pull numbers from other airports (I didn't see any in a quick search) where it is up.

Before I submitted this I ran 3 other GA airports. AHN, DPA and FTY. They are down 38%, 60% and 62% respectfully over the same time period.

Edit: I realize you were spanning 2012-2016. I am just commenting in general GA appears to be on a decline.

 

[172andyou]

Nope. But our experiences and observations are not equivalent, qualitatively.

Unless you've owned two aviation themed fly-in hotels for the last 15 years, and didn't happen to mention it? lol

lol! The only one qualified to opine on the subject of the health of GA is someone who has owned a hotel?! My flying 150 hours a year all over the country and GAMA doing actual studies pales by comparison?

 

[TCABM]

Doesn't GAMA encompass all GA, both 'light' and business. If so, that could explain the disparity.

ETA: both AF and Navy shuttered almost all of their aero clubs during my 20+ year career. The reason both services gave was, essentially, demand. Not enough demand to support a heavily subsidized fleet. While the services did draw down during that time, it wasn't relative. FrEx: AF cut ~30% of end strength and >75% of the clubs.

 

[KA550]

Ok, so anecdotal evidence aside (it's possible that your airport and hotel are getting hit harder than the rest of GA), the picture looks better.

In 2012 there were 24.4M hours flown nationwide (according to GAMA).
In 2016 there were 23.3M

So a decline of 4%. I don't know if I would call that "way down".

In Texas, number of aircraft were up over 10%. So maybe it's your area and anecdotal information proves again to not be the best?

Don't derail his soapbox speech (over and over and over) with data or facts. His hotel knows more than data supports, and he has an RV, so he is the real expert in all things aviation.

 

[SoonerAviator]

Don't derail his soapbox speech (over and over and over) with data or facts. His hotel knows more than data supports, and he has an RV, so he is the real expert in all things aviation.

Doesn't the data support his opinion that GA is on the decline, in general? As well as acknowledging that GAMA has no way of knowing how many hours are flown by GA pilots other than by self-reporting or using some broad extrapolation? I'm not calling it "doom and gloom", but if the number of GA operations recorded at airports is probably a better indicator of overall activity than GAMA's swag at hours flown.

 

[NoHeat]

In 2012 there were 24.4M hours flown nationwide (according to GAMA).
In 2016 there were 23.3M

So a decline of 4%. I don't know if I would call that "way down".

Not "way down" at all.

Of course, the economy was recovering from a recession in those years. If GA had a completely healthy outlook, hours would have gone up a bit, along with the economy.

 

[172andyou]

Doesn't the data support his opinion that GA is on the decline, in general?

That wasn't what he said. He said that it was "way down" in the past five years. He's just the boy that cries wolf, over and over and over.

Yes, GA has declined over the decades. It's less clear that the decline will continue. It's certainly not declining rapidly at this point.

 

[SkyHog]

So - first flight went well. Did 1.5 of ground and 1.5 of air work, including slow flight, steep turns, stalls, engine out practice and landings. All went very well, including familiarization with the Denver bravo.

CFI said he would have signed off my BFR that night if we had some crosswinds to judge my crosswind landings.

Good sign! Back later this week to try to find some wind!

 

[Jay Honeck]

I think it's tough (for GAMA or anyone else) to get actual total data as many GA hours flown are based on a wild guess (not reported).

I started flying about 18 years ago. In my opinion, it is like Jay suggests and there seems to be less GA activity over the last almost 2 decades.

There will not be a 100% factual way to provide exact data on this. I ran 2 GA airports that I've flown into a bit using actual (not WAG) numbers pulling FAA data for PDK and PWK. Between 1999 and 2016 PDK is down 33% and PWK is down 63% GA operations in that time period. I'm certain you can pull numbers from other airports (I didn't see any in a quick search) where it is up.

Before I submitted this I ran 3 other GA airports. AHN, DPA and FTY. They are down 38%, 60% and 62% respectfully over the same time period.

Edit: I realize you were spanning 2012-2016. I am just commenting in general GA appears to be on a decline.

These numbers match my observations.

For 15 years we have tracked our fly-in traffic closely, at two fly-in hotel locations in two different parts of the country. While our hotel business has grown exponentially during that period, the number of GA pilot guests flying in continues to dwindle.

We can wave our arms and stamp our feet all we want, but the simple fact is that GA is on life-support in most of the country. I have spent decades trying to reverse the trend, and fervently wish it were otherwise.