Like others have mentioned, trying to time the market usually results in further anguish and no asset purchase. I thought I bought my house at the top of the market as I was sweating bullets signing closing docs, but now it’s gained about 100k in equity in 3 years. So you may be better off just buying the plane you want now and enjoying it. Sure prices may go down but I doubt it. Level off more likely.
Has Anyone Bought or Sold a 182 In The Last Year?
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ktup-flyer
En-Route
I own a 182R and follow the market religiously. You're not getting a nice R for under $150k these days
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Pilawt
A while ago C-172 values were fast outpacing just about everything else. I was seriously considering trading up from my C-172N/180hp to a PA-32, at a time when I could get a nice older Six for very little more than what my 172 was worth. No more. PA-32 prices have jumped in the last few months.
Yep. I think they would be a great buy now. From talking with a few clients recently, they seem to fall into no-mans-land. Not a trainer but still old and unsexy compared to a Cirrus, who’s demographic is youngish and relatively well off. They want the latest bells and whistles and not an old 6 pack with tired gear/power pack and interior. I had a guy who totaled his 182RG on a gear collapse(not his fault) say that his wife doesn’t want another RG, she wants a Cirrus now. The people I do know that are buying RGs this year are A&Ps and aviation industry vets who’ve been around the block a few times. C-210s seems to be a decent buy now too, even ones with the spar AD compliance done.
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Vintage Snazzy (so my adult children say)
Our club just repaired landing gear somethings on the clubs 182 rg. Used salvage parts to keep price down - it still cost $40,000.
That and maybe a few other things make the 182 rg prices good.
And interestingly Textron stock is flat over the same period.
hindsight2020
Final Approach
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hindsight2020
Good on ya for speaking the quiet parts out loud.
Imagine now facing that expense (for mere subcomponent(s) that doesn't impact resale/recovery to the degree an engine does) as a sole owner. No thanks. The math on some of these legacy RGs just doesn't pencil out anymore. Those are "revenue-aircraft" pricing structures.
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Aztec Flyer
Sez the man with a Piper Arrow, LOL.
I don't mind the Piper gear we both have. It's those heron-legged Cessna's with their delicate mechanisms, and "no braking while turning" cautions that frighten me off.
ktup-flyer
En-Route
Definitely not enough of a speed difference between the FG 182s and the NA R182s to make it worth it. The TR182s are pretty decent performers, but that adds another expense to the equation.
FormerHangie
En-Route
There are a couple of factors that I think are driving used airplane prices. First one, and the 500 pound gorilla is the low production numbers for the last 40 years. If you look at the GAMA Annual report, you'll see that since 1982, the average number of piston airplanes delivered by U. S. makers is maybe 1500 units per year. Compare that to the 1960s and 1970s where the average was closer to 10,000. Second one, which can be found in the FAA Airmen Statistics, is that the number of sport, private, and commercial pilots has stopped declining. Third one, and I don't have data to support this, is that I suspect the size of the genuinely airworthy production fleet is shrinking, with the exception of Cirrus. Some airplanes get crashed, some get destroyed in storms, some get exported, and more than a few get left out to rot. Last one, and the one we see here, is that there are a few aircraft types that are market favorites: Cessna 172 and 182, Bonanza, and Tiger come to mind.
I'm not sure why the market has heated up lately, maybe the coronavirus has triggered a YOLO moment in lot of those who were thinking about getting their private ticket. As far as flying activity goes, the best proxy I can think of for the number of hours flown is avgas consumption, which you can find here. It's down fairly significantly since Covid hit us in March, down by almost a quarter from last year.
I'm not sure why the market has heated up lately, maybe the coronavirus has triggered a YOLO moment in lot of those who were thinking about getting their private ticket. As far as flying activity goes, the best proxy I can think of for the number of hours flown is avgas consumption, which you can find here. It's down fairly significantly since Covid hit us in March, down by almost a quarter from last year.
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Aztec Flyer
Clearly they should have started a rocket division, promoted solar panel tiles for hangar roofing, developed a Citation concept that can fly to Mars, launched a Bonanza into space with a mannequin pilot, converted the 172 to batteries and installed SuperChargers at every airport.
Just imagine where their stock would be...
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Vintage Snazzy (so my adult children say)
I see plane ownership surging for same reason RV sales are through the roof, house prices are up, home renovation is white hot, etc. People are spending more time at home, looking for something to do in their "new environment".
Todd82
Line Up and Wait
People are willing to pay alot of money to burn alot of fuel to still go slow.
I don't know that it's just 182's though, it seems the "trainer" planes are sky high now too. Lower end Cherokees have climbed significantly, to where 172's used to be a few years ago. 172's are where comparably equipped/condition 182's were a few years ago, etc.
It seems like the baby Beeches and the AA1/AA5 have avoided the recent frenzy though.
I don't know that it's just 182's though, it seems the "trainer" planes are sky high now too. Lower end Cherokees have climbed significantly, to where 172's used to be a few years ago. 172's are where comparably equipped/condition 182's were a few years ago, etc.
It seems like the baby Beeches and the AA1/AA5 have avoided the recent frenzy though.
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Pilawt
Likewise Mooneys and Comanches. Insurance rates are likely taking a toll on retractables, especially for older owners.
NordicDave
En-Route
Spot on. The fleet is shrinking and the 182 is a highly desirable plane. There are lots of these planes suffering from poor maintenance, years of coffee shop annuals, deteriorating ramp rats, and escalation of parts pricing. Some old planes are worth more in parts than as an airworthy airplane. All of this drives the foundation for pricing upwards. It's clear Vref is not keeping pace.
Planes that are still in production have a bit of a premium as there is still factory support for critical components. 172/182/206's can be repaired on nearly any airfield with good stocking of parts and knowledgeable mechanics. I've witnessed several instances in the past 2 years of guys arguing bidding up prices for pristine aircraft.
Well cared for 182's with mid-time engines are selling for low 6 figures. Pretty common to see mid 6 figures for new quality paint, modern avionics, good pedigree. Certain STC's drive that price still higher like P.Ponk engine, Turbo normalized, STOL kit, etc.
bflynn
Final Approach
Vref IS backward looking, but it's also possible (probable) that people are not getting what they're asking for airplanes.
NordicDave
En-Route
Planes are selling for record prices and I believe Vref has a slow state of change in rapidly evolving markets. I've seen with both down turns ans upswings.
Nice planes are selling very fast for record prices. Vref is only as good as those who volunteer to submit actual sales values. Too many believe their plane is wonderful, even if it has poor maintenance or upgrade history. Those planes languish. In the past month 3 friends my mine have sold very nice planes within a week for cash. In all three cases they pushed the market with pricing with an attitude "if you're willing to pay $X, I'll sell", expecting not to sell. Multiple buyers came forward. These planes all had mid-time engines, great paint, new interiors, and fully modern panels.
bflynn
Final Approach
I guess I can't doubt that. I have the cash and asked the wife about buying about 2 years ago and she said no. I should know by now that's the sure fire sign that prices are going to skyrocket. We did the same when older Porsche 911s were in the 25-30k range, when bitcoin was at $3000, when Apple was at $8, and when Tesla was at $100.
I would quit listening to her but the consequences there are more painful.
I would quit listening to her but the consequences there are more painful.
Rcmutz
Cleared for Takeoff
Wait for a recession.
When the bill comes due from Covid, and interest rates go up, recession will follow, along with falling aircraft prices.
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SoonerAviator
That's what I'm counting on. I figure it'll take about 2 years before it all comes to a head. Keeping my cash parked until then.
ktup-flyer
En-Route
All the good ones sell for asking price in a day or two.
Matthew Rogers
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Matt R
Nobody "sells" a 182, but they do die, and that that point, they don't have a say anymore. Someone needs to make a list of all the registered owners and their ages, ranked from oldest to youngest. You could cold call the oldest owners and find the ones that lost their medical.
wheaties
Pre-takeoff checklist
Same. 2yrs ago I could afford an 80s 182, 1yr ago a 70s model, today something from the 60s. Heck, I wanted a 205 but those planes have gone completely parabolic...