The scenario outlined in this thread is a flight planned by a commercial pilot in marginal conditions using an aircraft not suited for the task. While I think it's a great idea to discuss scenarios, I believe this one was handled poorly due to Kent's specific action of heading off to the airport with the intent of embarking on this flight.
Let me add some more info here for clarity's sake. Like I said in my previous post, I did not post much in the way of weather info on Friday because there was some time pressure with conditions forecast to deteriorate later in the day. Also, since I was doing most of my planning on ForeFlight, it was not a simple copy-and-paste to put the actual weather data here, I'd have had to seek out the information again on my computer and posted it, or go to PoA on the iPad or whatever. So, part of the story is missing here, and clearly gives some incorrect impressions.
By the time I left for the airport, I had decided that the over-water route was pretty much out. I left for the airport with the intention of possibly making a go at it VFR around the south end of the lake.
Since that wasn't my plan A, I hadn't looked at the TAF's down in that area, but while I was on my way to the home 'drome, it started snowing - four hours earlier than forecast. MSN and UGN both went IFR during my drive as well. By the time I arrived at the airport, MSN was MVFR and UGN was back to VFR, but there was some snow on the radar to the west of the route.
I don't like to fly VFR in when the visibility is less than good VFR, and even the lakeshore route leaves you with few options: You have very little room horizontally between the city and the lake, and very little room vertically between the lake and the Bravo, and no airports between UGN and GYY. Having snow move in from the west while you're in that area would not be good.
My frustation lies in the fact that he was seriously considering this flight, especially after a number of people replied by saying it was not a good idea.
Everyone's risk profile is different. I know a LOT of people will not cross Lake Michigan in a single regardless of glide range. EdFred crosses the lake all the time without even thinking about it.
I have a specific protocol that I have developed for crossing the lake when there will be any exposure time - And crossing in February does not fit that protocol. The crossing was predicated on flying the airplane that can cross with no exposure time.
I got the feeling that a lot of the "don't go" answers were from those who would not cross the lake, period - And where there was advice to not go, it either was based on things that didn't necessarily apply (Ted's answer about no de-icing equipment - It was a given that ice in the climb causes a change in plans), or was based on that person's own risk profile (ie, Ken & Henning's answers).
As a commercial pilot, my belief is that he should be held to a higher standard and should have had the judgment to reject this flight at the outset.
And when I have pax aboard, I do hold myself to a MUCH higher standard - Like I've said, "be the pilot your passengers think you are" - but when I'm by myself, things are different. Heck, I probably wouldn't take pax over the lake at all, simply because it'd probably make them nervous even if I did assure them we could glide to shore. Does that mean *I* shouldn't go over the lake myself?
He did nothing that violates the FAR's but his intent seems pretty clear. In my original, regrettably offensive post I outlined a number of weak decisions that could have made for a classic case of a pilot killing himself with bad choices made before ever flipping the master.
You seemed to be fixated on picking up ice at 13k over the lake... That was never really a worry at all - While earlier area forecasts were for higher tops, all of the other data indicated tops below 10K. In addition, were I to arrive at 13K and still be IMC, I'd turn around. The lake can do some interesting things to the atmosphere, especially in terms of temperature and moisture content, and I'm simply not comfortable cruising in IMC over the lake at this time of year.
Then there was the comment about visible moisture. Visible moisture ≠ icing. Sometimes, yes, but certainly not always - And generally, icing is a bigger problem around here in Oct/Nov and March than it is in Jan/Feb. IIRC I have more actual IMC time logged in December than any other month - And that's mostly in non-FIKI airplanes. (Somehow, I've never picked up any ice when flying a FIKI airplane.
)
Finally, you call the plane a "Diamond Mosquito" and make an unintelligible comment about it's "long track record of ice/altitude performance" - What did you mean by that, exactly? I'm still waiting for an answer on that one. I haven't had the DA40 to 13,000 yet but I have had it to 11,500 and it was still climbing 600 fpm when I got there.
I am not implying that Kent is a bad pilot. I think he made a poor choice, as a commercial pilot, to put in writing his plans for a risky flight over treacherous terrain into what could be considered known icing conditions in an airplane not equipped as such.
Icing is a complex equation. FWIW, there were no AIRMETs for icing along my route - There was one well to the west and south, and the PIREPs available at the time I left for the airport seemed to indicate that that particular AIRMET's borders were correct. I posted the Skew-T's - And those indicated to me that the clouds would be extra-cold (ie, probably all ice crystals already so no risk of icing). I am not an expert on ice by any means, and part of the reason that I laid all this out on the table was to get the opinions of those like Bruce and Scott who can read those tea leaves better than I can so that I could learn something, and hopefully others would learn as well.
Well, I guess I won't be losing a night's worth of lodging for canceling!
Needless to say, they have more experience with icing than everyone on this board put together.
) Sounds like a good way to do some learning...
