bbchien
Touchdown! Greaser!
You will find, with the more ratings and more capable aircraft, the decision gets more and more complex.....
I dunno - I tend to choose "go" more often now that I'm instrument rated, but the question has become more complex and difficult to answer, IMHO. Usually when you're VFR, the "no-go" is a fairly easy decision to make, and if you do go, you can at least see the hazards coming. IFR, sure you can go into that cloud deck, but what about ice/TS/destination weather/etc?
Maybe the reason I think it's more complex is also that I'll fly into some serious crap. "My minimums" are the ones that are on the approach plate. If I'm not proficient enough to shoot an ILS to minimums, I'm not proficient enough to fly IFR, period. I'll also go looking for the crappiest weather around if I'm doing an IFR proficiency flight (to keep proficiency, not regain it!) so I've done a fair number of ILS's to 300 feet or less. Only had to miss for real once though.
Anyway - Now, the flight that was an obvious "no go" when VFR has a lot more questions attached. Is there icing forecast? Is there a chance that there'll be icing that's not forecast? If I do hit icing, do I have enough outs to be safe? (Repeat all of the above questions for TS.) What's my destination weather like? Do I need an alternate? What's the alternate's weather like? Where's the closest VFR weather, and is it within my range if necessary? Am I going to be able to get on top of the weather enroute, or will I be in the soup the whole time? How much sleep did I get last night? To me, it's a much more complex decision, really a series of decisions all based on quite a large number of factors. Often it's still an easy one - +FZRA is a pretty automatic no-go; punching up through a thin layer to get on top is usually a go - But the gray area in between gets a lot more interesting IFR, IMHO.
You will find, with the more ratings and more capable aircraft, the decision gets more and more complex.....
To a point. Then you're suddenly flying 747's and 777's, and not only is the decision easier, it's even made by dispatch instead of you!You will find, with the more ratings and more capable aircraft, the decision gets more and more complex.....
To a point. Then you're suddenly flying 747's and 777's, and not only is the decision easier, it's even made by dispatch instead of you!
So in summary:
1) The plane I fly was appropriate for the potential weather conditions
2) I'm comfortable with its characteristics and with flying in such weather
3) I was prepared for what I was going to encounter
I wouldn't have made the flight otherwise.
Hello,
First post here, Very good thread.
I am a CFII with 3600 hours and have been flying 91 corporate for a year now in a C421B and believe it or not I am still a virgin to heavy weather flying, although weather that all the commercial guys are flying in in larger aircraft like mine and up. I consider myself to be proficient on instruments and very knowlageble of the system.
I live in the Monterey bay area of California and it is mostly very fair weather here. All of my flights in the C421 have been in excellent weather other than fog and other than flying a Twin Otter for a skydiving operation The first larger than single engine Cessna aircraft I have piloted.
So now as far as the go/no go here: The clients want to go down to Santa Ana John Wayne with a stop in Santa Maria on the way down on Wed/Thu of next week 1/20 and 1/21 and the weather models look like this.
60 Knot winds at 5,000 and upwards of 70 to 80 knots at 10,000 is the main issue. This is an El Nino enhanced storm system and these usually contain copious amounts of Icing. The freezing level should be above the MDA's and we are fully certified so am not anticipating much of an issue there. My main concern is the turbulence. These winds interacting with terrain can cause severe turbulence and even if it is only moderate plus I worry about the PAX. These people are high level executives and need to make the meeting, the classic dillema. We are also a start up and they have not been flying with us for very long.
Ceilings and visibilities are usually above minimums during these events so that does not look like much of an issue.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_850_wnd.gif
This is the 850mb forecast chart for winds, as you can see during this flight it is supposed to be very windy at 5,000 feet.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_sfc_prcp.gif
And a look at copious amounts of precip at our time of landing in LA. This usually means clear ice just above the freezing level.
Not trying to defer this descision to anyone else, I just do not have any experience flying in wind and weather like this. My inclination is to think that if this forecast plays out like predicted the turbulence may be too much. Does anyone have any pilot reports flying aircraft like mine in conditions like this in mountainous terrain.
There could even be imbedded T storms and we do have radar, but I have no experience using it (it's pretty intuative though). Just my luck, nature does not allow me to break into this real flying stuff gradually.
Hello,
First post here, Very good thread.
I am a CFII with 3600 hours and have been flying 91 corporate for a year now in a C421B and believe it or not I am still a virgin to heavy weather flying, although weather that all the commercial guys are flying in in larger aircraft like mine and up. I consider myself to be proficient on instruments and very knowlageble of the system.
There could even be imbedded T storms and we do have radar, but I have no experience using it (it's pretty intuative though).
Just my luck, nature does not allow me to break into this real flying stuff gradually.
it sure helps when you have a nice warm bed to sleep in wherever you are stuck
Unfortunately, now I almost use VFR as my standards for SE IFR. I can still shoot an ILS to minimums no problem, but I cancel flights all the time now if the weather isn't pretty darn good...The thought of losing the only engine I have and only having 500' or so to find a place to put it down after breaking out is just something I've not been able to shake.
I feel like I'm betting my life that the engine won't quit every time...I do miss the feeling of shooting an ILS to minimums in actual at night though...just not enough to die trying it.
Unfortunately, now I almost use VFR as my standards for SE IFR. I can still shoot an ILS to minimums no problem, but I cancel flights all the time now if the weather isn't pretty darn good...The thought of losing the only engine I have and only having 500' or so to find a place to put it down after breaking out is just something I've not been able to shake.
I feel like I'm betting my life that the engine won't quit every time...I do miss the feeling of shooting an ILS to minimums in actual at night though...just not enough to die trying it.
Dang that was a long drive. But the ice threat and the pireps of icing back up my no go decision.
Thanks, but that doesn't make it any less brutal. I had an opportunity to use a deiced Aztec, but I just could not be sure there wasn't going to be significant SLD threat, and my wife hates IMC, especially IMC with turbulence and ice. She feels ill with it, and she says I get way too crabby anyway.A dang smart decision it was Bryon!
You get back home yet?I'd agree, Bryon, it was a nasty day out. Definitely a day for flight without de-ice.
Thanks, but that doesn't make it any less brutal. I had an opportunity to use a deiced Aztec, but I just could not be sure there wasn't going to be significant SLD threat, and my wife hates IMC, especially IMC with turbulence and ice. She feels ill with it, and she says I get way too crabby anyway.
You get back home yet?
Thanks, but that doesn't make it any less brutal. I had an opportunity to use a deiced Aztec, but I just could not be sure there wasn't going to be significant SLD threat, and my wife hates IMC, especially IMC with turbulence and ice. She feels ill with it, and she says I get way too crabby anyway.
The granddaughter was happy to see us, even if it was later than expected.