My story is similar, and based on those experiences, I think any time spent forecasting an aviation future is futile. I did the PPL during college because I wanted to and could devote part of my summer job earnings to lessons. Took 3 years, but got it done.
The airlines were hiring then, but when I looked at the long-term opportunities (a seniority number, decent living and maybe a pension in return for lots of time away from home) I chose to do something else. After 12 years of VFR flying to grandma's house and outlying bird-hunting trips, the 73 oil embargo created a need to travel to places where I had developed good business and were (overnight) no longer accessible by commercial carrier and too far to drive.
An instrument rating and a leased Mooney matched up to my travel needs, and for many years the only thing that changed was that the (many) airplanes got bigger and there were more of them. I concluded that the big difference for me wasn't so much about the time as the flexibility. Can you come tomorrow was a quick yes/no answer for me, without any fumbling with the reservations agent. I also found that almost any day the airlines could go, I could go too. Also found I could go on many days when the airline schedules were hopelessly AFU due to WX in other parts of the country. AFAIK, I've never had to cancel a trip because my airplane or crew was stuck in another city.
For me, travel has always been an inconvenience. Flying the airplane myself was, for a while, a bit of an adventure, but over time it just became part of the drill. After you fly ~500 hours per year for 20+ years your logbook is fatter--and your wallet is leaner--by a substantial margin, but if the hours in the plane translated to money in the bank it all makes sense. I never added up the cost comparisons because in the beginning I had no choice, and after I found out how much better life-style I enjoyed (home for family & kid stuff, golf games, etc.) I really didn't care. The airplane expenses were just one more line item on Schedule C.
Those experiences afforded the opportunities to upgrade pilot credentials and add some type ratings, which in turn created the opportunities to fly big airplanes around the world (for fun as well as some pocket money) and provided some additional credibility to the big-airplane advisory/consulting practice that I operate now. So when anybody asks me if they should learn to fly, I just tell them I'm the poster child for how flying can be an instrumental part of a successful career that has absolutely nothing in the job description that is aviation-related.
I did, and it wasn't easy for me to afford either since I was only 19. It wasn't until a number of years later that I decided to make it my career. I was attracted to the idea of freedom and being like a bird. It wasn't until much later that I realized that it's one of the more regulated activities I could have chosen. By then I guess I accepted the fact that if it was going to be my job that that's the way it was going to be.
Back a long time ago when I rented airplanes for fun I can't ever remember using them as a substitute for the airlines. I went to out of the way destinations that were really only accessible by small airplane unless you had time to drive a long way. When I really had to get somewhere I took the airlines because it was quicker, more reliable and less expensive, but I have almost always lived in a major metropolitan area.
On the other hand, I agree with this.
On the whole, I think the article was right on.
