So maybe to partially answer my own question, the best way to avoid the weather component is to get a good GPS with realtime weather. Ok, so that's 11.2% I can avoid in weather, and 3.4% I can avoid with proper fuel management, but what about the 10.7% with takeoff and climb, and the 10.4% of "other"? Maybe these are questions I should save for my instructor.
I don't like the bike analogy that much - a soccer mom won't t-bone you running through a red light at an intersection while texting in an airplane. I think riding a motorcycle is 80% skill and 20% luck, while flying an airplane is probably closer to 95% skill.
Although, like you said, you can mitigate lots of risks on bikes by obeying the golden rule - don't be a dumbass. Same thing applies for an airplane. 9/10 engine failures are because air suddenly filled up the tanks.
An example from your last post. "I guess I need to get a good GPS with real time weather. I am not aware of any GPS that displays real time weather". Many can display NEXRAD down loaded from XM. They show precipitation and some will show lightning strikes. Most important it shows where precipitation was. It is not real time. It will not show low ceilings, fog, clouds or poor visibility due to smog and a host of things that can get you into trouble.
If you have to parse the odds it is too dangerous for you.
Ronnie, maybe I'm misunderstanding the product characteristics, or falling prey to the advertising, but from what I've read a product like the Garmin 696 displays "satellite images, METARs, TAFs, TFRs, turbulence forecasts, winds aloft, freezing levels" which seems a great deal more useful than just precipitation. Also, I doubt I will be doing any flying anytime soon at >150 knots and the refresh rate of the weather is said to be less than 5 minutes, meaning I would cover a maximum of ~12 NM in the time it took for the weather to update. Again, I am new so maybe that is more significant than it seems, but I would think that I could look at the maps and project where the weather will be when I get to a certain place, I mean I currently look at the weather before I get in the car to decide if I should bring my umbrella in the morning, and that's a 30 minutes extrapolation.
Also, to ClimbnSink:
How exactly is that helpful? Our brains obviously work differently. I am not an overly cautious person, but if I am going choose to put the most valuable things in existence in a situation, I am going to consider the ramifications of that decision and analyze the data before I make that decision. To not do that would be negligent on my part. For me, part of that is asking the local grey-beards their opinions and everyone in between me and them (in terms of experience) and then formulating my own thoughts. Since I'm not part of a community yet, I thought I would ask here, but as I said in a previous post, maybe I should have waited and just asked at the club. Hopefully they won't feel like this whole safety discussion has been "beaten to death" and will just give me their thoughts, otherwise I there will be another unsafe pilot in the sky. Maybe the better question for this forum is:
Can you give a personal anecdote of a safety lesson you learned first hand? (please share your wisdom, not your cynicism, there's plenty of that elsewhere)
None of the items you list are real time. Five minute refresh rate is the up load rate, not the age of the product.
GA Safety..........oxymoron!
Ronnie, maybe I'm misunderstanding the product characteristics, or falling prey to the advertising, but from what I've read a product like the Garmin 696 displays "satellite images, METARs, TAFs, TFRs, turbulence forecasts, winds aloft, freezing levels" which seems a great deal more useful than just precipitation. Also, I doubt I will be doing any flying anytime soon at >150 knots and the refresh rate of the weather is said to be less than 5 minutes, meaning I would cover a maximum of ~12 NM in the time it took for the weather to update. Again, I am new so maybe that is more significant than it seems, but I would think that I could look at the maps and project where the weather will be when I get to a certain place, I mean I currently look at the weather before I get in the car to decide if I should bring my umbrella in the morning, and that's a 30 minutes extrapolation.
Downcycl1230566 said:Ronnie, maybe I'm misunderstanding the product characteristics, or falling prey to the advertising, but from what I've read a product like the Garmin 696 displays "satellite images, METARs, TAFs, TFRs, turbulence forecasts, winds , I am new so maybe that is more significant than it seems, but I would think that I could look at the maps and project where the weather will be when I get to a certain place, I mean I currently look at the weather before I get in the car to decide if I should bring my umbrella in the morning, and that's a 30 minutes extrapolation.
Also, to ClimbnSink:
How exactly is that helpful? Our brains obviously work differently. I am not an overly cautious person, but if I am going choose to put the most valuable things in existence in a situation, I am going to consider the ramifications of that decision and analyze the data before I make that decision. To not do that would be negligent on my part. For me, part of that is asking the local grey-beards their opinions and everyone in between me and them (in terms of experience) and then formulating my own thoughts. Since I'm not part of a community yet, I thought I would ask here, but as I said in a previous post, maybe I should have waited and just asked at the club. Hopefully they won't feel like this whole safety discussion has been "beaten to death" and will just give me their thoughts, otherwise I there will be another unsafe pilot in the sky. Maybe the better question for this forum is:
Can you give a personal anecdote of a safety lesson you learned first hand? (please share your wisdom, not your cynicism, there's plenty of that elsewhere)
IThe ability to maintain the big picture of evolving weather over a large area is an incredible advantage
It won't show you what's happening now, but if you keep an eye on it, you can see the trend.No doubt in what Wayne says. IMO in cockpit nexrad is the best thing to come along since on board radar. However, one must know how to use it and know the limitations. That was my point to the OP about not knowing what he does not know. I did not mean that in a disparagingly way. My example was that at this point he did not understands the limits of nexrad. As somebody pointed out you can not depend on anything being less than 15 minutes old. IMO as valuable as in cockpit nexrad is, it does not take the place of on board radar and the knowledge of how to use it. All of this has little application now for the OP but, it might in the future if he pursues his IR.
Some advice:
1) Realize the PPL is a license to learn...
2) Stay current and always critique yourself...
3) Fly the plane...
4) Maintain Situational Awareness and be resourceful...
5) Be patient...
I match up what I'm seeing out the window with XM and use that make my decisions...Work to build a good tree and use all of the information available, flight service, controllers, other aircraft, XM, and my favorite just looking out the window. Don't fall in love with anyone input as the gospel, but try to have and use every source of information to make good decisions.
Those who down-play the value of any weather depiction in the cockpit either have short memories or haven't been around long enough to understand the value...The benefits of having a radar picture, even if 15-20 minutes old, are too numerous to mention. The ability to maintain the big picture of evolving weather over a large area is an incredible advantage, as with a recent trip.
I recall a trip a couple of years ago where ATC was warning me that I was flying into a red spot, I could see the red spot on the 430, and out the cockpit window I was severe clear and 5 miles away. Because I could see how the storm was moving and could verify it out the window, I didn't even have to alter course.