GA pilot decline

brien23

brien23

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From the high of 300,000 pilots in 1980 a steady 10,000 pilot decline in GA a year, and the FAA takes credit for the record low fatal Accident rate?
 
I find it interesting that the used aircraft market has been skyrocketing. If the supply of pilots is decreasing then where is the demand for these planes coming from?
 
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Mtns2Skies said:
I find it interesting that the used aircraft market has been skyrocketing. If the supply of pilots is decreasing then where is the demand for these planes coming from?
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Aviation activity is directly related to the economy as a whole. When times are good people will be buying and flying airplanes. When times aren’t so good, Aviation is one of the first places to show it. It’s not too hard to see what’s going on right now. Wait a few years and I suspect you’ll see a reversal.
 
2008 shook out a lot of pilots on the edges, probably doomed a lot of iffy airframes. Next downturn will do the same. Sooner or later we'll dip below critical mass and that'll be all she wrote.
 
steingar said:
2008 shook out a lot of pilots on the edges, probably doomed a lot of iffy airframes. Next downturn will do the same. Sooner or later we'll dip below critical mass and that'll be all she wrote.
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Not really. While most people can't afford new airplanes, they're still being bought and built en masse. Cirri are bought by consumers new, Cessna are bought by large flight schools and government agencies and Pipers are bought en masse by flight schools. Plenty of new airframes being introduced that in 10-20 years will be affordable to us peasants.

As far as pilot #'s well... time will tell.
 
brien23 said:
From the high of 300,000 pilots in 1980 a steady 10,000 pilot decline in GA a year, and the FAA takes credit for the record low fatal Accident rate?
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Isn’t the rate measured per flight hour not per pilot?


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Mtns2Skies said:
I find it interesting that the used aircraft market has been skyrocketing. If the supply of pilots is decreasing then where is the demand for these planes coming from?
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Economics...
The factories are reopening, and the middle class has money again.
 
private-pilots-graph.jpg
hotprops said:
something wrong with info 37 years times 10,000 per = 370,000. 300k-370k=-70k
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Your right The numbers in the post were 300,000 private pilot in 1980 and 10,000 total pilot loss a year to 2008. The chart above does not mix private pilot loss with total loss.
 
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Hopefully the EAAs young eagles program and eagles program will help to stop the slide,AOPA also is pushing the rusty pilots program ,to try and get some pilots back. FBO fees aren’t helping.
 
Flight school I instruct at is pretty darn busy. 7-8 part time CFIs, 5 "old" airplanes. Newest are 1980 C172 & C152.
 
SEE and MYF are a zoo most days. But it seems like most of the students are there to eventually go pro. Rarely meet people anymore who just learn for the fun of it.. which does come down to cost. While Cessna, Piper, and Cirrus still sells planes, with the upper range of Cirrus approaching $1M I think by and large the hourly operating costs keep most people out of it. And yeah, Cirrus is the pack leader.. BUT, most companies would have a hard time surviving on just 300 units/yr.. amazing they can keep the costs as low as they do when you think about it

Even at a modest $120/hr to fly a rental beater.. that's still a full day of skiing, a nice dinner, etc. Flying kicks ass, but I do believe it's the costs primarily

...and the other stuff we've talked about in our other "make GA great again" threads
 
Mtns2Skies said:
I find it interesting that the used aircraft market has been skyrocketing. If the supply of pilots is decreasing then where is the demand for these planes coming from?
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Market fluctations in aircraft pricing occur on a much shorter timespan than changes in the pilot population. Also there are few new aircraft being made, and the ones that are being made cost 10 times as much as a used aircraft, so less supply.
 
brien23 said:
View attachment 64850
Your right The numbers in the post were 300,000 private pilot in 1980 and 10,000 total pilot loss a year to 2008. The chart above does not mix private pilot loss with total loss.
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Your chart also ends in 2009, which was basically right at the tail end of the economic crisis. I would imagine you’d see the number begin to rise after 2010-2011 or so.
 
2017 Airmen Stats (estimated source FAA)
Pilot--Total 609,306
Student 149,121
Recreational (only) 153
Sport (only) 6,097
Airplane-2
Private 162,455
Commercial 98,161
Airline Transport 159,825
Rotorcraft (only)-3 15,355
Glider (only )-4,5 18,139
Flight Instructor Certificates-6 106,692
Instrument Ratings-6,7 306,652
Remote Pilots-9 69,166

2 Includes pilots with an airplane only certificate. Also includes those with an airplane and a helicopter and/or glider certificate.
3 See table 7 for the total number of pilots with a helicopter certificate.
4 See table 8 for the total number of pilots with a glider certificate.
5 Glider pilots are not required to have a medical examination. Beginning with 2002, glider pilots with another rating but no current medical are counted as "Glider (only)."
6 Not included in total.
7 Special ratings shown on pilot certificates, do not indicate additional certificates.
9 Remote pilot certification started in August 2016. These numbers are not included in the pilot totals.


https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/
 
One of the trends I have seen in 30+ years higher ed is less involvement with reality (hobbies, outdoor activities, sports) and more involvement with electronic media. I've also noticed that my students have become more risk averse over time. This all bodes poorly for taking up flying.

I grew up at a time when flying was one of those poor kid dreams. By the time I was 29 I realized I wasn't poor anymore and flying was within my reach. Haven't looked back. At the time it seemed very, ridiculously expensive, but I got past that and have enjoyed flying ever since.

FWIW, I think the declining accident rate has a lot to do with the manifold safety improvements afforded by GPS navigation and in flight weather. Getting from A to B has never been simpler, including instrument approaches. I've flown long enough to remember doing it in a way I wouldn't go back to. Now if we can just train pilots to avoid the stupid stuff, like poor maintenance, fuel mismanagement, VFR into IFR, and loss of control.
 
teejayevans said:
Accidents, corrosion, neglect....we’re losing them faster then they are building them.
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This! It's amazing to me how many aircraft just sit and slowly corrode away. I recently saw an add for a C182 that while hangered, hadn't flown since it's last annual in... 2006!
 
chemgeek said:
FWIW, I think the declining accident rate has a lot to do with the manifold safety improvements afforded by GPS navigation and in flight weather. Getting from A to B has never been simpler, including instrument approaches.
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No doubt. The experience level of the pilot population is greater, too, because there are less students and low-time, risky neophytes careening around the sky. I don't think TAA aircraft should get credit. GPS, yes. Moving maps, yes. Information inundation? No.
 
idahoflier said:
This! It's amazing to me how many aircraft just sit and slowly corrode away. I recently saw an add for a C182 that while hangered, hadn't flown since it's last annual in... 2006!
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What's more amazing is that people actually pay the bill to let them sit and rot on the tarmac!
 
Our EAA Chapter has held three Rusty Pilot programs and have the fourth scheduled for September. We've had good attendance, not sure how many have reentered general aviation as a result. In May we had a Flying Start event and had 15 in attendance. It was meant for those interested in becoming pilots. We flew most of them as Eagle Flights that day, not sure any have moved forward.

Our youth program is paying dividends for us. Every Saturday we have from 10-18 young folks (age 14 and up) come work on our three project planes and earn dollar credits that can be used toward flight training. One young man took his check ride on March 30th, his 17th birthday. Our second PPL is now a Naval Officer and in the Naval Aviator program. We have a third nearing his check ride and a fourth we hope will take her check ride before summer is over. She will be headed off to college and be in an aviation program at college.

This article was written by our first young man.

http://inspire.eaa.org/2018/07/03/building-and-flying-at-eaa-chapter-690/
 
brien23 said:
View attachment 64850
Your right The numbers in the post were 300,000 private pilot in 1980 and 10,000 total pilot loss a year to 2008. The chart above does not mix private pilot loss with total loss.
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this is weird data. did 30k dies in one year?? or get revocations? you're still a pilot until one of them happens, even if you don't have a current BFR or medical.

is this "active pilots"? we need a definition to make this meaningful
 
Ryanb said:
What's more amazing is that people actually pay the bill to let them sit and rot on the tarmac!
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it's just a damned shame when it's so hard to find a good airframe yet there are 10's of thousands rotting. i support peoples' right to do what they want, but it's a shame not to get those things sold, even cheaply, to a new owner.

additionally, hangars and tie downs might become available. my airport has an indefinite wait for TIE DOWNs, don't even dream about a hangar spot
 
Tantalum said:
But it seems like most of the students are there to eventually go pro. Rarely meet people anymore who just learn for the fun of it.. which does come down to cost. While Cessna, Piper, and Cirrus still sells planes, with the upper range of Cirrus approaching $1M I think by and large the hourly operating costs keep most people out of it. And yeah, Cirrus is the pack leader.. BUT, most companies would have a hard time surviving on just 300 units/yr.. amazing they can keep the costs as low as they do when you think about it

Even at a modest $120/hr to fly a rental beater.. that's still a full day of skiing, a nice dinner, etc. Flying kicks ass, but I do believe it's the costs primarily

...and the other stuff we've talked about in our other "make GA great again" threads
Click to expand...

Agreed. That's been my only complaint about GA. There just aren't a lot of younger guys my age that are involved in it. The exception is the flight instructors at the schools. I'm hoping when I get my CFI I will meet more younger people who fly.
 
Mtns2Skies said:
Plenty of new airframes being introduced that in 10-20 years will be affordable to us peasants.
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I don't know about that. In 20-30 years those born today will be looking for a drone type craft that takes commands such as "go to the beach" or "go to grandmas". In the words of Bob Pittman, "Convenience is King". Traffic and terrain/obstacle avoidance will be handled by computer with no piloting skills required. I believe the PA-28s/172s will be as in demand to them as TriMotors are to Airline companies today. And I know this is hard for many of us to believe or accept, but our government, representing the other 99.9% of citizens, will probably outlaw or severely restrict the use of PA-28s/172s for the danger they present to the drone type craft and the drone type individuals that will occupy them.
 
EdFred said:
2017 Airmen Stats (estimated source FAA)
Pilot--Total 609,306
Student 149,121
Recreational (only) 153
Sport (only) 6,097
Airplane-2
Private 162,455
Commercial 98,161
Airline Transport 159,825
Rotorcraft (only)-3 15,355
Glider (only )-4,5 18,139
Flight Instructor Certificates-6 106,692
Instrument Ratings-6,7 306,652
Remote Pilots-9 69,166

2 Includes pilots with an airplane only certificate. Also includes those with an airplane and a helicopter and/or glider certificate.
3 See table 7 for the total number of pilots with a helicopter certificate.
4 See table 8 for the total number of pilots with a glider certificate.
5 Glider pilots are not required to have a medical examination. Beginning with 2002, glider pilots with another rating but no current medical are counted as "Glider (only)."
6 Not included in total.
7 Special ratings shown on pilot certificates, do not indicate additional certificates.
9 Remote pilot certification started in August 2016. These numbers are not included in the pilot totals.


https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/
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Getonit said:
I get too many chicks being a GA pilot, wearing me out, reason i am quitting.
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Good thing about math, we can use @EdFred's data above to clearly correlate @Getonit's findings....the problem of GA pilots getting too many babes has resulted in a obvious shift towards higher numbers of Commercial and ATP licenses. See, problem solved :)
 
James331 said:
Same reason less people hunt, camp, shoot, build forts in the woods as kids, etc.

Less freedoms and less critical thinking being encouraged for kids.
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There is no reason to do most of the things I as a kid did 40 years ago. We did not have video games, 300 channels on TV, an iphone that they can't set down and many other things that keep kids from enjoying the things I did.
I built model airplanes, rode my bike, etc. and would give my left nut to go to the airport and get a ride. Hell even just watch planes take off and land.
Granted flying planes are more expensive now, but hell an Iphone is a grand, kids just aren't motivated to learn to fly to many other "easier" activities to participate in.
 
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