GA Picking back up?

ScottM

ScottM

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iBazinga!
The lines people at my home airport are telling me that they are the busiest they have been in a couple of years. I was also talking to my mechanic and he tells me he is booked solid plus people are not asking him to defer maintenance items and are asking for upgrades such as avionics and engine monitors.

Perhaps this is a good sign that people are starting to feel a little bit more secure and that the economy is starting to grow again?
 
There was traffic at DLZ when I landed there. First time I've been in the pattern with more than one aircraft since the last fly-in I attended.
 
I've heard whispers of a jobless recovery, meaning, the economy is picking up but companies are still scared to fill a lot of the positions of people they laid off. Which means that the people who DO have jobs are probably feeling a little better about prying open the wallet.

On the other hand, some economists are talking about a double dip recession. Both could be right, where you have a recovery and then another bout of recession. Time will tell.
 
I haven't seen any more activity that 6 months ago. Just the same ol folk at the airport.....
 
I'd like to know where this recession is, because parking lots are chockful, traffic is bad, malls are a zoo around here. Must be in fly-over country.
 
flyersfan31 said:
I'd like to know where this recession is, because parking lots are chockful, traffic is bad, malls are a zoo around here. Must be in fly-over country.
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We live in one of Pennsylvania's poorest per capita counties.

Restaurants are packed, mall is always busy, as are big box stores such as Wal Mart and Target.

Yet, I wouldn't use that as measure of economic energy, given how far too many people live around here.
 
Do you work for MSNBC?

ScottM said:
The lines people at my home airport are telling me that they are the busiest they have been in a couple of years. I was also talking to my mechanic and he tells me he is booked solid plus people are not asking him to defer maintenance items and are asking for upgrades such as avionics and engine monitors.

Perhaps this is a good sign that people are starting to feel a little bit more secure and that the economy is starting to grow again?
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I did see a lot of empty stores in the last couple years where I am. A lot of the mid-level restaurant chains are gone too, although the cheap ones are thriving.
 
My business (custom picture framing) was doing mildly OK for most of this year, until May 1st. It did not slow down, it completely stopped. Talking to a supplier in New York the same thing happened there as well, he said May 1st, it went off a cliff.

A week ago I started calling my customer base on the phone and it has made a huge difference so far, and I think we will make it. Being one of the older guys in my industry I'm getting a lot of calls from panicked framers, they don't know what to do.

Our industry is at the bottom of the list when it comes to purchasing, so we get hit first when there is any kind of unusual activity in our economy. I've got my business on an even keel for now.

In the last eighteen months we have lost five major suppliers to our industry. I am sure the pinch has been just as bad, if not worse, in the aviation industry. This might just be a small blip, or it could be an indicator of things to come.

I know one thing for sure, it's a scary time to be a retailer.

John
 
steingar said:
I did see a lot of empty stores in the last couple years where I am. A lot of the mid-level restaurant chains are gone too, although the cheap ones are thriving.
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We just moved to Texas, and -- although, as a whole, this state is doing MUCH better than average -- it's stunning to see so many developments that were obviously stopped in their tracks, essentially in mid-shovel, when this recession hit. Corpus Christi has got quite a few of them; Victoria has even more. Partially built developments and half-empty strip malls are a common sight.

This is strange, since we came from a University town that was visibly unaffected by the recession. Our motel business in Iowa City took a HUGE hit in 2009, however, and has not recovered. Many people are still not comfortable spending $250 for a weekend in a hot tub suite, and our fly-in business in Iowa is still way down...

We see more GA activity in a week here in South Texas than we did in a month up in Iowa. Flying in the Midwest is a faint shadow of what it was before the worldwide financial collapse, and many Iowa airports now have no FBOs or on-site A&P mechanics.
 
Agree, Jay. Not much hint of a recovery here, other than that Caterpillar started to rehire a few critical production staff (but NOT UAW).
 
Real estate is indeed stuck.

As it should be.

How many of those stalled developments have huge Hi Tension wires running down the backyards, or back to interstates? Real estate in the last decade was a game of musical chairs. I wouldn't use unfinished developments as a proxy for recovery, because IMHO most of them shouldn't have been started in the first place.

The local Cracker Barrel parking lot is chock full all weekend. Now, IMHO that is an inexplicable occurrence at any time, but there are a lot of flesh Zeppelins who love the place. They aren't letting a little recession keep them away. Same for Applebee's, TGI Fridays, Flingers, Tipsy McStagger's, and all the rest.

Tried to make reservations last minute for a spring break vacation -- cruises were booked, Florida was booked, airlines were booked. Now, I tend to look at the higher end, not JB's Gat'r Shack and Motel type places, but still.....
 
John Baker said:
A week ago I started calling my customer base on the phone and it has made a huge difference so far, and I think we will make it.
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Besides my regular job I have a scuba instruction business on the side. It has been real slow the past couple of years as people just have not been willing to spend money on frivolous things like vacations and recreation. But last winter the store I am associated with started calling old cusotmers and offering US based group travel for scuba and that did bring in some additional business. Like you business scuba is at the bottom of the priority list for people. What we have seen an uptick in is the amount of people wanting advanced training to be dive masters and instructors. Many hope to supplement their incomes with an 2nd job that they consider fun. But there are few job openings for them.
 
I think this was nailed early in the thread. If you feel fairly comfortable in your job you probably have tightened the belt a bit but otherwise have continued on. If you're in a job that might still be hit you've probably really tightened up your spending habits.

We announced a near record quarter week before last and locally are hiring in the vicinity of 45 - 50 folks and globally I believe somewhere in the neighborhood of 4500.
 
It appears, based upon the initial reads on the "health care reform" bill, analysis with CPA and insurance broker, that we'll be paying about one FTE more for health care next year (this, between (1) insurance premiums taxable to employee; and (2) insurance premiums taxable to insurer, yielding increased premiums). Canvassing my clients, similar ratios - about one in ten will not have jobs as a direct and precise result of health care reform.
 
SCCutler said:
It appears, based upon the initial reads on the "health care reform" bill, analysis with CPA and insurance broker, that we'll be paying about one FTE more for health care next year (this, between (1) insurance premiums taxable to employee; and (2) insurance premiums taxable to insurer, yielding increased premiums). Canvassing my clients, similar ratios - about one in ten will not have jobs as a direct and precise result of health care reform.
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"Change you can believe in"
 
SCCutler said:
It appears, based upon the initial reads on the "health care reform" bill, analysis with CPA and insurance broker, that we'll be paying about one FTE more for health care next year (this, between (1) insurance premiums taxable to employee; and (2) insurance premiums taxable to insurer, yielding increased premiums). Canvassing my clients, similar ratios - about one in ten will not have jobs as a direct and precise result of health care reform.
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I agree, with one minor caveat: This is not an "upcoming problem" -- rather, this phenomenon has already CAUSED our current horrendous unemployment rate.

Business owners aren't, as a whole, stupid, and many stopped hiring the moment O became president, knowing what must inevitably follow with the Ds in control of Congress. We didn't know the details, but we knew the intent -- and we also knew the impact on the bottom line.

Since it is nearly impossible to quickly get rid of unneeded employees without incurring huge downside expenses nowadays, the solution was to reduce the workforce through attrition. Many simply stop hiring, in preparation for this day. We certainly did.

Think about that next time you hear your local politician ranting about "joblessness". Check out his voting record. Expect the worst, you probably won't be disappointed.

Let's just hope that any recovery is strong enough to offset this phenomenon. So far, it's looking like it might just be a "jobless recovery", but I guess that's better than no recovery at all.
 
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Is that why your bumpersticker says "My business is under water"?
ScottM said:
Besides my regular job I have a scuba instruction business on the side. It has been real slow the past couple of years as people just have not been willing to spend money on frivolous things like vacations and recreation. But last winter the store I am associated with started calling old cusotmers and offering US based group travel for scuba and that did bring in some additional business. Like you business scuba is at the bottom of the priority list for people. What we have seen an uptick in is the amount of people wanting advanced training to be dive masters and instructors. Many hope to supplement their incomes with an 2nd job that they consider fun. But there are few job openings for them.
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Based on the size of the dudes and dudettes I see rolling out of Cracker Barrel and Golden Corral, I'm not sure belt-tightening is the operative word.

EppyGA said:
I think this was nailed early in the thread. If you feel fairly comfortable in your job you probably have tightened the belt a bit but otherwise have continued on. If you're in a job that might still be hit you've probably really tightened up your spending habits.

We announced a near record quarter week before last and locally are hiring in the vicinity of 45 - 50 folks and globally I believe somewhere in the neighborhood of 4500.
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wabower said:
Is that why your bumpersticker says "My business is under water"?
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Clever :D:D

While my personal scuba business is not making a profit for the past couple of years that has been solely my issue. I have not had the time to teach enough classes to be profitable. The shop owner is hanging on but his profit has been really low. Last year he was just able to make it to the break even point. Recreational businesses are the canaries in the coal mines about the economy. That is why I was happy to start hearing from our airport people that things are picking up for them. Seems like I am seeing more planes on the ramps as I travel too.

I was in Fort Wayne, IN last weekend and the ramp had all of the rental/flight school planes out and a bunch (6) transients parked. I was happy to see that as my last trip there was like visiting a ghost town.

All good signs. I'll remain optimistic that things have perhaps bottomed out and may be bouncing back.
 
ScottM said:
All good signs. I'll remain optimistic that things have perhaps bottomed out and may be bouncing back.
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There's a limited tolerance for giving up various recreational pursuits. Over time people figure, "Oh well...why let it rot?" and go use the stuff they were afraid to last year.

That <> rebounding economy
 
Seems like the asking prices on Barnstormers for low end LSA aircraft are inching up. But that could be seasonal, or it could be that I am just looking a lot closer...
 
I've always provided health care for my employee since I downsized my business twelve or so years ago. I moved my large store into a much smaller store and I let all twelve of my employees go. I ran it by myself for several years, then hired just one employee. I decided I am getting too old to be doing everything.

Had I kept my larger store and it's staff, I am sure I would be out of business now.

I have no intentions of growing my business, ever. I've been there and done that. No matter how much money I made, it was never enough. Having a huge cash flow is like a dog chasing it's tail, you spin your wheels and go nowhere. Everyone has their hand out wanting their fair share. I finally figured out I was working my butt off to keep other people happy.

Now instead of working seven days a week, I work five. Instead of ten and twelve hour days, I work eight. Life is pretty good, even in slow times.

The way I have been running my small business is simple. If we get too busy and might have to start working overtime, I raise my prices to slow things down, instead of hiring new help. When things are slow, I lower my prices rather than letting my one loyal employee go. So far, for me, this has been an excellent strategy.

Whatever Obama is as our president, like him or not, enjoy him while you can. The next one will be a little worse. I never thought there could be a worse president than Bush, but Obama proved me wrong. Every president we put in office is always a little worse than the previous one. I really thought Obama was going to break that chain, but nope, it didn't happen.

John
 
ScottM said:
...

All good signs. I'll remain optimistic that things have perhaps bottomed out and may be bouncing back.
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From your mouth to God's ear, my friend.
 
Whatever Obama is as our president, like him or not, enjoy him while you can. The next one will be a little worse. I never thought there could be a worse president than Bush, but Obama proved me wrong. Every president we put in office is always a little worse than the previous one. I really thought Obama was going to break that chain, but nope, it didn't happen.
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What's that old saying..."It's impossible to be too cynical"? Man, you make me look like a good ship lollypop optimist, by comparison... :rolleyes:

Personally, I think our next president will have to be better. In fact, it's almost a statistical certainty, since surely -- out of 100 million potential candidates -- almost anyone would be more qualified to lead us.

Of course, great leadership qualities and vast experience don't guarantee a great president (think Herbert Hoover, for example), but they certainly help.

But back to GA. Mary and I converted some petrochemicals into noise and air pollution this afternoon, and man, did it feel good. We only got a few touch & goes in before the lightning got a bit too close for comfort, but it was still great. And our new airport (Ingleside - KTFP) is chock-full of active pilots on most days -- far more so than my old home field up in Iowa.
 
We put all three of our LSA demo aircraft into rental last winter. The independent CFI that uses them is now doing it full time and has 12 new students since the first of the year. And he really hasn't even advertised yet. He is so busy, he is going to form his own flight school and hire more instructors. Since he is a CFI SP and I don't have time to take on much more than Able Flight students, he refers all calls about PP to one of the other two flight schools. Other wise, he could have another five or six students. It's interesting to note that none of those PP referals have signed on yet.

Betwen our Atlanta and San Diego locations, we'll have a total of 4 or 5 LSAs in flight schools by the fall. We've already sold one LSA as a direct result of the flight training. I don't know if it's a sign of a recovering economy or a reflection of the fact that people don't want to pay $200/hour for a 182 when they can get a cool LSA for $100-$120/hour. I think it's a combination of both.
 
maddog52 said:
We put all three of our LSA demo aircraft into rental last winter. The independent CFI that uses them is now doing it full time and has 12 new students since the first of the year. And he really hasn't even advertised yet. He is so busy, he is going to form his own flight school and hire more instructors. Since he is a CFI SP and I don't have time to take on much more than Able Flight students, he refers all calls about PP to one of the other two flight schools. Other wise, he could have another five or six students. It's interesting to note that none of those PP referals have signed on yet.

Betwen our Atlanta and San Diego locations, we'll have a total of 4 or 5 LSAs in flight schools by the fall. We've already sold one LSA as a direct result of the flight training. I don't know if it's a sign of a recovering economy or a reflection of the fact that people don't want to pay $200/hour for a 182 when they can get a cool LSA for $100-$120/hour. I think it's a combination of both.
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That's great to hear. LSAs have been slow to catch on back at our home field in Iowa, but Iowa Flight Training recently started instructing in a CTLS. According to Tim Busch (the president of IFT), it's in the air a LOT.

I flew a CT back in 2006, and really liked it. Once my kids are grown, I'll be selling Atlas (our Pathfinder, so-named for his 1,460 pound useful load) and picking up a CTLS (or similar) for the two of us.
 
Enjoyed looking over your motel web sites. Wish I was closer....


Jay Honeck said:
We just moved to Texas, and -- although, as a whole, this state is doing MUCH better than average -- it's stunning to see so many developments that were obviously stopped in their tracks, essentially in mid-shovel, when this recession hit. Corpus Christi has got quite a few of them; Victoria has even more. Partially built developments and half-empty strip malls are a common sight.

This is strange, since we came from a University town that was visibly unaffected by the recession. Our motel business in Iowa City took a HUGE hit in 2009, however, and has not recovered. Many people are still not comfortable spending $250 for a weekend in a hot tub suite, and our fly-in business in Iowa is still way down...

We see more GA activity in a week here in South Texas than we did in a month up in Iowa. Flying in the Midwest is a faint shadow of what it was before the worldwide financial collapse, and many Iowa airports now have no FBOs or on-site A&P mechanics.
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LT4247 said:
Wish I was closer....
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Dude...you DO fly, right? :D

The farthest our motels can be from any pilot in America is two easy days of flying. Most pilots are close enough to be able to leave at breakfast, and be here (or in Iowa) for supper.

That's why we fly...right? To cover vast distances quickly and efficiently... So, c'mon down! (Or up!)
 
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