full day/overnight cross country flight

david0tey

david0tey

Line Up and Wait
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Fox-Three
I got my private in February and am about to take my first cross country trip that will have me away from home all day, possibly overnight. My concern is that I am worried that the weather will turn for the worse while I am away and force me to keep the plane longer than i intend to. I can't afford to be keeping the plane for multiple nights because the availability of this particular plane is limited. I am planning on flying from Newport News to First Flight in the outer banks on Sunday. The forecast is currently calling for your typical summer weather of possible thunderstorms. Does anyone have any advice for ensuring that I don't get stuck down there? I feel like every summer day calls for thunderstorms so it is frustrating making that go, no-go decision. Any ideas or personal experiences would be much appreciated.
 
If you can't afford to change your plans then you should drive. Trust me I flew to Dayton with friends on a calm day and got stuck there and HAD to come back to work the next day. That meant rent a car for $200 and drive the 3 hours back and then pay $1000 for them to go retrieve the plane. (Cost of another plane to go down there and flight time then for both to get back) Wait until August/September for a trip like you're planning by air when thunderstorms aren't quite as common.
 
The only way to be certain you won't get stuck is not to go. However, you can use the various aviation weather products such as 12/24/36/48-hour surface and significant weather prog charts, the Day 2 convective outlook, and the MAV MOS site (including the dew point forecasts, which have a lot to do with thunderstorm development) to get a good idea of the likely weather for Monday and make a decision on that basis. If you're not familiar with those sites and products, grab your instructor and have him/her help you learn them.

In addition, since this is probably your biggest concern in the eastern VA/NC area for the next three days, understanding the causes and development of thunderstorm activity is important. We're not looking at any significant frontal activity for the next 48 hours, but there's a low pressure trough just lying there from around DC through Richmond into west central NC, and that creates the potential for thunderstorm development in the afternoons. My personal guess is that if you get down there Sunday, you should be able to get back Monday morning, but that's just a guess, and they're forecasting dew points of 75F at 8am Monday morning along the VA/NC coastal plains, so I'd want to wait at least 36 hours before making a firmer decision.
 
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I'll add (based on flying and living in Florida for my whole life!) _most_ of the time in Florida waiting overnight will usually get you home. Most of the summer thunderstorm activity is afternoon and early evening.

Now First Flight is not in Florida and I don't pretend to know the weather patterns there, but you should be able to get a good idea from watching the weather charts for a while prior to the trip.

John
 
For me the main issue with doing an overnight during times of likely thunderstorm activity is keeping my airplane protected from the elements. Even when thunderstorm activity is widespread, it's usually possible to wait it out and find a window within a day or so. Otherwise, Flight Watch plus the Mark I eyeball can usually help you find a way safely around them. When it's too cool for convection, it's typically IFR or strong possibility of IFR conditions sometime in the next 24 hours where I live. For those reasons I've only done one overnight trip in my life, and that was one I really shouldn't have done (VFR into IMC, etc.). As an owner if I leave my plane overnight I want to know for sure that it's going to be inside a hangar if there's even a slight chance of a thunderstorm. The last thing I want is to have to deal with hail damage or worse! If you're not an owner, the owner will thank you for looking out for his airplane as if it WAS your own.
 
What specifically are you looking for on the surface forecast charts besides low pressure systems?
 
david0tey said:
What specifically are you looking for on the surface forecast charts besides low pressure systems?
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You have to look for the elements which lead to thunderstorm development. These include lifting mechanisms, humidity, and instability. I'd suggest going back into your Aviation Weather book (AC 00-6A, which you can find on line), and reading up on that, because it's a bit involved to try to conduct a tutorial over PoA.
http://www.faa.gov/regulations_poli....cfm/go/document.information/documentID/22268
In particular, see Chapter 11 on thunderstorms.
 
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Don't go. Sorry, I won't make a trip with that kind of get-home pressure. It's just too good a way to get dead. I own an aircraft because I make a lot of overnight trips.
 
Ron Levy said:
You have to look for the elements which lead to thunderstorm development. These include lifting mechanisms, humidity, and instability. I'd suggest going back into your Aviation Weather book (AC 00-6A, which you can find on line), and reading up on that, because it's a bit involved to try to conduct a tutorial over PoA.
http://www.faa.gov/regulations_poli....cfm/go/document.information/documentID/22268
In particular, see Chapter 11 on thunderstorms.
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Also, the aviation forecast discussions issued by the NWS forecast offices are very useful for getting an idea of how likely the experts think convective development is, and over what parts of their CWA, not to mention other kinds of weather. The best discussions are the ones that don't gloss over everything not needed for TAF issuance, but give a broad discussion of the model forecasts, current trends, etc. You can access them from a clickable map on ADDS.
 
Check with the FBO on their policy if weather keeps you from returning on time. If the weather at home field is bad it probably wouldn't cause as much of an issue.

Start looking for a good flying club!
 
steingar said:
Don't go. Sorry, I won't make a trip with that kind of get-home pressure. It's just too good a way to get dead. I own an aircraft because I make a lot of overnight trips.
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Bingo.
Get-there-itis has proven fatal far too often.
 
Mike5250 said:
Check with the FBO on their policy if weather keeps you from returning on time. If the weather at home field is bad it probably wouldn't cause as much of an issue.

Start looking for a good flying club!
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Any good FBO should be telling their renters that if weather is a concern, don't launch, even if that inconveniences the next renter. Much better to be inconvenienced and out some revenue than to have a damaged plane or, much more importantly, a damaged pilot.

There's a recent tutorial/quiz over at Air Safety Institute on thunderstorms: http://www.aopa.org/asf/asfquiz/2012/120612thunderstorms/index.html
 
Don't fly if you HAVEto be back the next day. I would say the same for any x-country though. With that being said. You should make the flight if you can. It is a short flight and a good first xcountry. This is the fun of aviation. I would do the following.
- what is the policy of where you are renting the plane if you have to keep it another night due to weather. what will it cost you. don't worry about inconveniencing others. that should not be a pressure on youth get back and kill yourself.
- check weather before you go. If forcast ok for departure and return, go.
- work with a good CFi to go over the weather forecasts. this is a food time to learn more about weather. You might want to plan to fly over in the morning, spend the night and return the next morning.
 
To anybody who is willing: Would you mind looking at this flight from my point of view and making a go, no-go decision? My plan is to depart Newport News around 7 am and fly home from First Flight around 2 or 3 pm. I am basically asking you, at this point, what would you do? I realize it is my decision as PIC, I'm just interested to hear your thoughts. I won't make my decision until Saturday night.
 
david0tey said:
To anybody who is willing: Would you mind looking at this flight from my point of view and making a go, no-go decision? My plan is to depart Newport News around 7 am and fly home from First Flight around 2 or 3 pm. I am basically asking you, at this point, what would you do? I realize it is my decision as PIC, I'm just interested to hear your thoughts. I won't make my decision until Saturday night.
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You're a real rated pilot now, not a Student -- first you look at all the data, and then tell us what you think and why. :wink2: And if that means getting back with your instructor for some advanced weather training, so be it.
 
Ron Levy said:
You're a real rated pilot now, not a Student -- first you look at all the data, and then tell us what you think and why. :wink2: And if that means getting back with your instructor for some advanced weather training, so be it.
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I think that summer weather sucks.
 
david0tey said:
I think that summer weather sucks.
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:rofl: Doesn't take a pilot certificate for someone to say that around the Chesapeake Bay.

C'mon -- step to the plate, look over the pitcher, and take a swing. Chris Davis wouldn't be getting better if he weren't taking every at-bat he could get. [that's local Oriole context]
 
david0tey said:
I think that summer weather sucks.
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Weather sucks in the East period. The trick is to not trap yourself in a situation where you have to get back. Any trip I take, I have weather windows on either side. The windows are larger in winter, smaller in summer. If I can't do the tip with the necessary windows, I don't do the trip.
 
Ron Levy said:
gprellwitz said:
Any good FBO should be telling their renters that if weather is a concern, don't launch, even if that inconveniences the next renter.
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If the weather's that bad, the next renter probably won't be flying, anyway.
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True for a relatively local (80NM) flight like David asked about, but if I'm 300 miles away, the weather can be quite different!
 
Ron Levy said:
:rofl: Doesn't take a pilot certificate for someone to say that around the Chesapeake Bay.

C'mon -- step to the plate, look over the pitcher, and take a swing. Chris Davis wouldn't be getting better if he weren't taking every at-bat he could get. [that's local Oriole context]
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Chris Davis is already too good, he can't get any better. If I am reading the forecast charts correctly, there is a cold front approaching from the north. It seems like it will be a gametime decision for me because there is no telling when that front will make it to Virginia. At this point however, I'm thinking that if I decide to go, I should be heading home closer to 10 or 11 a.m. :mad2:
 
david0tey said:
Chris Davis is already too good, he can't get any better. If I am reading the forecast charts correctly, there is a cold front approaching from the north. It seems like it will be a gametime decision for me because there is no telling when that front will make it to Virginia. At this point however, I'm thinking that if I decide to go, I should be heading home closer to 10 or 11 a.m. :mad2:
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Yup! Make the decision an hour before you're scheduled to leave for the airport. And be willing to say that you won't be getting back when originally planned, whether that means you'll leave earlier or later. If you absolutely, positively must be back at a particular time the next day, don't go at all, because there is always a chance that something might come up. If driving, you might have an accident!

The key, though, is to be flexible!
 
gprellwitz said:
Yup! Make the decision an hour before you're scheduled to leave for the airport. And be willing to say that you won't be getting back when originally planned, whether that means you'll leave earlier or later. If you absolutely, positively must be back at a particular time the next day, don't go at all, because there is always a chance that something might come up. If driving, you might have an accident!

The key, though, is to be flexible!
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So in other words...buy an airplane for myself?:rolleyes:
 
Ron Levy said:
C'mon -- step to the plate, look over the pitcher, and take a swing. Chris Davis wouldn't be getting better if he weren't taking every at-bat he could get. [that's local Oriole context]
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Aww, with the Nats doing this well, you've gotta be a Nats fan! Especially if you're from VA, like David appears to be.
 
david0tey said:
To anybody who is willing: Would you mind looking at this flight from my point of view and making a go, no-go decision? My plan is to depart Newport News around 7 am and fly home from First Flight around 2 or 3 pm. I am basically asking you, at this point, what would you do? I realize it is my decision as PIC, I'm just interested to hear your thoughts. I won't make my decision until Saturday night.
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If the forecast was for pop up convective activity rather than widespread IFR I'd probably go. You can fly around small cells or wait them out. If there is a possibility of widespread IFR then that's a bird of a different color.

However I haven't been a renter for a while now and XM is my friend.
 
jpower said:
Aww, with the Nats doing this well, you've gotta be a Nats fan! Especially if you're from VA, like David appears to be.
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I don't mind the Nats but listening to Bob Carpenter and FP Santagelo makes me want to put my head through a wall.
 
Hi David. I took a quick look at the prog charts for 48 hours from now. Between now and then, there is a low pressure trough hanging out about where you want to fly, then 48 hours from now (Sunday afternoon) a cold front is approaching northern Virginia from the north. The front is shown running basically east/west. Based on what can be deduced now (as far as I am concerned) if I were you I would be thinking about postponing for a week. If the front speeds up much, or just moves a little further south and stalls out, you could be stuck. Since it is a pleasure flight, no point in taking the pleasure out of it :).
 
david0tey said:
So in other words...buy an airplane for myself?:rolleyes:
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Nope! I once flew Chicago to Bahamas and back, almost entirely VFR. Had low ceilings and fog the morning I was planning to leave FL coming back. Just called the FBO and told them Wx was keeping me there another day.

Last year we did Chicago to Philadelphia. We were IFR, but it didn't matter. Got stopped by the same line of thunderstorms that took out Joplin, MO. We did an unexpected overnight. Again, just a call to the FBO.

Another trip back from FL had us do an unexpected overnight in Smyrna, TN.

Note that VFR/IFR doesn't change the fact that unexpected things come up. In no instance, though, were we delayed more than 24 hours, and we could have substantially decreased that delay had we decided to go part way the first day.

And there have been times when we cancelled (or changed the transportation method) the day we were going to launch. Went commercial to Ft. Lauderdale in 2010, and drove to the upper peninsula of Michigan for 6Y9 last year.

As Duncan posted, popup thunderstorms can usually be navigated VFR with minimal changes in time (a few hours or so). Widespread IFR, OTOH, can stick around for days.
 
If the plane is scheduled for the next day you could call the other person and see if they are a little flexible, who knows maybe they were just reserving it to take it around the patch/scenic tour with friends. Be surprised what other plane renters will do - just be sure to return the favor!
 
I think and FBO would understand if someone got stuck somewhere. They may not like it, and it may cost you, but they would understand.
 
somorris said:
I think and FBO would understand if someone got stuck somewhere. They may not like it, and it may cost you, but they would understand.
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The problem is that I think this cold front moving in will linger for awhile. That is purely speculation, I honestly have no idea. I think I may just fly local to take care of the flying itch and do the trip another time.
 
I think I may just fly local to take care of the flying itch and do the trip another time.
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I think that is a good decision.
 
Skylane81E said:
Con CFI into going for hood work?
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That trip I mentioned to the Bahamas in 2004 we took that route. Brought with a CFI just so he could file if we ran into IMC. Only used that for the leg from Lakeland to Key West! We could just have overnighted at Lakeland or Tampa instead. :mad2:
 
david0tey said:
The problem is that I think this cold front moving in will linger for awhile. That is purely speculation, I honestly have no idea. I think I may just fly local to take care of the flying itch and do the trip another time.
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If you do cancel, don't forget your next learning experience - keep watching the weather to see what it really does.
 
:rofl::rofl:JD or MD degree + ifr rating + cirrus 22t = 100% dispatch rate and all the overnight trips you ever wanted :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

:popcorn:
 
JD or MD degree + ifr rating + cirrus 22t = 100% dispatch rate and all the overnight trips you ever wanted
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All for the low, low price of $________________________!
 
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