Fuel prices on the rise

mandm

mandm

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Michael
Gosh doing some xc planning and the fuel prices are wah up there compared to last year. What gives.
 
An economy recovering from all the Covid fallout. Part of/a sign of the recovery, like it or not. It’s a global thing - not a US thing.
 
So this is the fun thing about my airport. Gas hasn't gone up one penny. In fact, the price hasn't moved in years. My airport keeps it the same always. When you guys were paying under $4, I was paying $4.50. Now you're paying over $5 and I'm paying $4.50. I kinda like it.

I don't know exactly how long it's been $4.50 but it hasn't changed in 6 years since I've been based there.
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
So this is the fun thing about my airport. Gas hasn't gone up one penny. In fact, the price hasn't moved in years. My airport keeps it the same always. When you guys were paying under $4, I was paying $4.50. Now you're paying over $5 and I'm paying $4.50. I kinda like it.

I don't know exactly how long it's been $4.50 but it hasn't changed in 6 years since I've been based there.
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The gas price at my home airport didn't change for years as well. The airport manager wasn't smart enough to be able to figure out how to adjust the price so he just left it (no joke).

Unfortunately, we got a new airport manager, who happens to be a bit smarter. He figured out that the airport was losing money on every gallon pumped and took action to fix that. He didn't make a ton of new friends with that move, but most of the regulars understood why he did it.
 
Paying $6/gal for 100LL up here, in the cheap spots. Can't wait to downgrade to a an injected 4-banger and run it LOP! The recent spike in fuel prices is almost like paying for an extra annual every year.....
 
GeorgeC said:
View attachment 103395
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That data hopefully will help steer this away from conversations that lock threads.

I’m an optimist and frankly I see this as a good thing, yea we all like paying as little as we can- I do. BUT it is a world wide “thing” and a sign of recovery from some crazy times globally.

We’re doing just fine in the ol US of A! jobless claims are at a 50 yr low, our economy is recovering better and faster than almost any other in the world. My business is better than it’s ever been, everyone I know In biz is doing as good or better than they were. Almost everyone I know is making more than they once did. Nothing is “free” lift vs drag, supply vs demand… If the cost of recovering to a better place than we’ve been before is that I pay a few more bucks to fill the airplane up with gas, car gas is pretty normal here if we don’t count the plunge when we were shut down, and milk is $0.25 more- that’s a price I will pay with a smile when I and most are in a better economic position than we were before.
 
Huckster79 said:
That data hopefully will help steer this away from conversations that lock threads.

I’m an optimist and frankly I see this as a good thing, yea we all like paying as little as we can- I do. BUT it is a world wide “thing” and a sign of recovery from some crazy times globally.

We’re doing just fine in the ol US of A! jobless claims are at a 50 yr low, our economy is recovering better and faster than almost any other in the world. My business is better than it’s ever been, everyone I know In biz is doing as good or better than they were. Almost everyone I know is making more than they once did. Nothing is “free” lift vs drag, supply vs demand… If the cost of recovering to a better place than we’ve been before is that I pay a few more bucks to fill the airplane up with gas, car gas is pretty normal here if we don’t count the plunge when we were shut down, and milk is $0.25 more- that’s a price I will pay with a smile when I and most are in a better economic position than we were before.
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Hey there Johnny Ray, I’m guessing you haven’t purchased a car or a pick up truck recently. Or a house, lumber, or anything made out of metal.
 
Huckster79 said:
That data hopefully will help steer this away from conversations that lock threads.

I’m an optimist and frankly I see this as a good thing, yea we all like paying as little as we can- I do. BUT it is a world wide “thing” and a sign of recovery from some crazy times globally.

We’re doing just fine in the ol US of A! jobless claims are at a 50 yr low, our economy is recovering better and faster than almost any other in the world. My business is better than it’s ever been, everyone I know In biz is doing as good or better than they were. Almost everyone I know is making more than they once did. Nothing is “free” lift vs drag, supply vs demand… If the cost of recovering to a better place than we’ve been before is that I pay a few more bucks to fill the airplane up with gas, car gas is pretty normal here if we don’t count the plunge when we were shut down, and milk is $0.25 more- that’s a price I will pay with a smile when I and most are in a better economic position than we were before.
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I respectfully disagree^^^^^

I know of many local businesses that have failed lately, especially restaurants.

I sell heating fuel to many homes and businesses. It cost way way more than it did 11 months ago and is crippling people and their life style.

My wife needs a newer SUV to replace her 2005 durango. We can not find one that is fairly priced and the dealers parking lots are almost empty.

Many many people don't work anymore...jobless claims do not tell the whole story.
 
Everything is up. My steel prices have jumped 400% since October 2020. That would be the equivalent of $15.00 of 100LL.
 
Fuel and energy are too expensive right now, nothing is being done to lower the cost. Unfortunately the people in charge feel increased fuel costs is a necessary thing. The problem is that lower fixed income people cannot afford these drastic increases.

I know people who are forced to choose between medicine/food and heat when price get this expensive. It's a sad unnecessary situation.
 
Robert W said:
Sounds like more BS to me big pile
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Just need to open your peep holes. I know a couple little old ladies, living in single or double wides, no savings, living off $1,100 a month social security who have had to make this decision in the past. $3 a gallon is very tough for them, $4 a gallon is undoable. If you can afford to fly an airplane, then you have enough disposable income to absorb these ridiculous increases. You are wealthy, most people are not.

This continued over regulation of energy markets is going to come home to roost one day if something doesn't change. And if it does, the cuts are going to start with "unnecessary" energy usage. Boutique fuels like AvGas will be one of the first targets.
 
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Morgan3820 said:
Hey there Johnny Ray, I’m guessing you haven’t purchased a car or a pick up truck recently. Or a house, lumber, or anything made out of metal.
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Iv purchased 4 road vehicles and an extra plane in the last year- past two vehicles were a week and a half ago. We renovated and sold a home and are remodeling another we live in. We have 7 kids so we buy lots of groceries- we buy around 50 gallons of milk a month, so it’s not that we are low demand users of first world luxuries :). But when I do the check book things are well, and that’s with my wife choosing to not work outside the house while we remodel ours.
 
Huckster79 said:
Iv purchased 4 road vehicles and an extra plane in the last year- past two vehicles were a week and a half ago. We renovated and sold a home and are remodeling another we live in. We have 7 kids so we buy lots of groceries- we buy around 50 gallons of milk a month, so it’s not that we are low demand users of first world luxuries :). But when I do the check book things are well, and that’s with my wife choosing to not work outside the house while we remodel ours.
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If you think higher prices is a good thing, bless your heart.

The really good news is that we’re not stuck in a traffic jam on I 95 right now in northern VA

Hundreds stuck in Virginia traffic jam on snowed-in highway
https://www.newsnationnow.com/weather/hundreds-stuck-in-virginia-traffic-jam-on-snowed-in-highway/

As our family motto says, it can always be worse.
 
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Gary Ward said:
I respectfully disagree^^^^^

I know of many local businesses that have failed lately, especially restaurants.

I sell heating fuel to many homes and businesses. It cost way way more than it did 11 months ago and is crippling people and their life style.

My wife needs a newer SUV to replace her 2005 durango. We can not find one that is fairly priced and the dealers parking lots are almost empty.

Many many people don't work anymore...jobless claims do not tell the whole story.
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i love respectful disagreements, far too few of those anymore :)

my business services other businesses and we have not seen a sharp rise in closures, we service a lot of restaurants statewide and lost very very few. The few we did were hanging by a thread to begin with. That doesn’t mean I’m cold hearted towards them- I once failed in the food biz myself and went bankrupt in the Great Recession, and my family was in the restaurant business for 25 years separately from mine.

but in talking to a lot of restaurant peers they survived quite well, some saying they were more profitable during take out only period than normal and in servicing them many many many have used the last period of wonkiness to invest in their businesses, as I’ve sold them some of the things they have invested in.

by no means am I not saying everything is perfect, it never is, or that no ones had a rough go of it, I’m just saying it’s not dire overall…

and yes jobless claims don’t paint a full picture but no stat does, but it’s also been the same formula for decades. And no doubt the auto industry is having a rough time fulfilling demand. Demand is up- that’s good… supplies like chips hard to get is not good.

but those are not signs we aren’t doing well collectively…in fact it’s quite the opposite… if there wasn’t high demand there wouldn’t be an issue, if it were isolated to the US then there would be a problem… But most of the negatives we are experiencing are worldwide issues and most of the good news isn’t uniquely American but we are near the front of the pack worldwide with good news.

I appreciate folks like yourself that we can disagree without being disagreeable, it’s good for us all!
 
Morgan3820 said:
If you think higher prices is a good thing, bless your heart.

The really good news is that we’re not stuck in a traffic jam on I 95 right now in northern VA

Hundreds stuck in Virginia traffic jam on snowed-in highway
https://www.newsnationnow.com/weather/hundreds-stuck-in-virginia-traffic-jam-on-snowed-in-highway/

As our family motto says, it can always be worse.
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amen to that motto!

and hey I’m a cheapskate (ask my kids) but I have no prob paying 10% more if I’m making 20% more (not actual numbers just for discussion sake). I’m just saying from my experience and many others I’ve talked to their “net” is just not that shabby right now to be thinking things are bad.

let me phrase it another way- I’m more okay with high prices in an economy that’s based off the capitalistic virtue of supply and demand when it’s demand driving the prices. I’d much rather see price increases because of high demand than price drops due to low demand… low demand isn’t good for any of us.
 
Well if you fill up your SUV with premium fuel you’re looking at $80 or so. But when you just started flying in 2020, fuel prices were low $3.xx, and now seeing $5.xx the new norm, that extra $2/gal filling up a plane is adding a good ole $100 or more. :)
 
I'm in the O&G business and about as far right as you can get politically....but this run up in oil prices has very little to do with the current occupant in the WH and more to do with the crash in 2014 of oil prices.

From the early 2000's to 2014, O&G was easy and drew tremendous investment from Wall Street to main street. After 2014, that investment dried up, not just here in the USA, but all over the world. For example, Saudi Arabia has less rigs operational than any time in recent memory.

Why did it dry up? The easy money was gone, and the people that invested money wanted to actually see a return. Shale plays are a little like Ponzi schemes as they need continual investment as the production drops off dramatically after the first year.

You are seeing the result of less investment because of those reasons, and here where it gets political, there is tremendous pressure on investors to be green, and having a bunch of Oil and Gas on their balance sheet isn't politically correct, so you see less bigger investors putting money into the market. Instead they can buy the S&P and FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) and make big bucks without the backlash from the greens.

Here is where capitalism comes in to save the day, we need to see higher and higher prices to lure that money back into the industry. And with high demand and low supply, the price is coming up. I'm seeing more and more investment in CAPX than I have seen in years. It's going to take some time for the market to equalize, and I am guessing $100 oil is where it will hit before it's over. OPEC (Saudi's mainly) learned a lesson also, they are not going to just turn on the spigots, they are going to let this run. After 2014, they really pumped a lot more than they should have, trying to put the Shale play out of business. They almost succeeded...but American ingenuity won out. Everybody cut margins (and pay), the smart guys figured out cheaper ways of doing things and the inefficient went out of business. You are now left with a completely different industry than you had in 2014.

And another aspect of this is also political, as is everything in life. Mexico is so corrupt their oil production has dropped off a cliff and the American Oil companies are now in there trying to salvage the whole industry. Venezuala, well we know what socialism has done to their economy, but their oil production is basically nil....and what there is is all going to China to pay for their bailout. Libya, yeah, a mess. Iran, still sneaking out oil but most won't touch it except China. Iraq, well it actually doing pretty good. Nigeria? A mess. Chad? Dropping to nothing. Canada? What a mess, the federal government is basically trying to put their whole industry out of business. My sales there dropped to zero in the last two years.

The current occupant has made it very difficult to get drilling permits on federal land, and that has a effect on prices, but we are talking maybe a dollar or two a barrel. While he came out and took credit for a 10 cent decrease, that is long gone in this latest runup.

And while crashing oil prices create havoc on the industry, we have fared very well during those times. Because we concentrate on customer service in an industry that doesn't have any. When purchasing managers are losing their jobs left and right, we are there to support them and they remember that.

Avgas will hit $5 a gallon soon....and may hit $6 before it's over (speaking the cheapest pricing seen on Foreflight). That's my prediction and I may be wrong. But it's my way of staying on topic.
 
The "Fuel club" at GYR just released their email today that they're holding at $4.69. That makes Nov/Dec/Jan holding steady.

What this is - the FBO at GYR, LuxAir, announced a year+ ago, a "Fuel club". Spend $19.95/mo and get this preferred pricing.

It's announced monthly, and you can drop out any time. Non fuel-club today is $5.49. $0.80/gallon savings is well-worth it for me.
 
cowtowner said:
I'm in the O&G business and about as far right as you can get politically....but this run up in oil prices has very little to do with the current occupant in the WH and more to do with the crash in 2014 of oil prices.

From the early 2000's to 2014, O&G was easy and drew tremendous investment from Wall Street to main street. After 2014, that investment dried up, not just here in the USA, but all over the world. For example, Saudi Arabia has less rigs operational than any time in recent memory.

Why did it dry up? The easy money was gone, and the people that invested money wanted to actually see a return. Shale plays are a little like Ponzi schemes as they need continual investment as the production drops off dramatically after the first year.

You are seeing the result of less investment because of those reasons, and here where it gets political, there is tremendous pressure on investors to be green, and having a bunch of Oil and Gas on their balance sheet isn't politically correct, so you see less bigger investors putting money into the market. Instead they can buy the S&P and FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) and make big bucks without the backlash from the greens.

Here is where capitalism comes in to save the day, we need to see higher and higher prices to lure that money back into the industry. And with high demand and low supply, the price is coming up. I'm seeing more and more investment in CAPX than I have seen in years. It's going to take some time for the market to equalize, and I am guessing $100 oil is where it will hit before it's over. OPEC (Saudi's mainly) learned a lesson also, they are not going to just turn on the spigots, they are going to let this run. After 2014, they really pumped a lot more than they should have, trying to put the Shale play out of business. They almost succeeded...but American ingenuity won out. Everybody cut margins (and pay), the smart guys figured out cheaper ways of doing things and the inefficient went out of business. You are now left with a completely different industry than you had in 2014.

And another aspect of this is also political, as is everything in life. Mexico is so corrupt their oil production has dropped off a cliff and the American Oil companies are now in there trying to salvage the whole industry. Venezuala, well we know what socialism has done to their economy, but their oil production is basically nil....and what there is is all going to China to pay for their bailout. Libya, yeah, a mess. Iran, still sneaking out oil but most won't touch it except China. Iraq, well it actually doing pretty good. Nigeria? A mess. Chad? Dropping to nothing. Canada? What a mess, the federal government is basically trying to put their whole industry out of business. My sales there dropped to zero in the last two years.

The current occupant has made it very difficult to get drilling permits on federal land, and that has a effect on prices, but we are talking maybe a dollar or two a barrel. While he came out and took credit for a 10 cent decrease, that is long gone in this latest runup.

And while crashing oil prices create havoc on the industry, we have fared very well during those times. Because we concentrate on customer service in an industry that doesn't have any. When purchasing managers are losing their jobs left and right, we are there to support them and they remember that.

Avgas will hit $5 a gallon soon....and may hit $6 before it's over (speaking the cheapest pricing seen on Foreflight). That's my prediction and I may be wrong. But it's my way of staying on topic.
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Thanks for the insight. I actually don’t mind high fuel prices. The truck I have stays in the driveway most of the time. my every day car gets 38 mpg. Shortly, I hope to be retired so I won’t have the 62 mile daily commute. I would like to get a newer truck and higher fuel costs help that purchase. With higher oil comes a chance of a recession. Which may lower other prices.
 
I would say the spike in oil prices has a lot to do with US production dropping in 2020 when Covid hit, and then exacerbated by the tightening of regulations in 2021 while demand shot up. Nobody got it right when predicting demand coming back like it did for everything.
 
WDD said:
I would say the spike in oil prices has a lot to do with US production dropping in 2020 when Covid hit, and then exacerbated by the tightening of regulations in 2021 while demand shot up. Nobody got it right when predicting demand coming back like it did for everything.
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"Nobody got it right" - I'm shocked...
 
Gads I just realized - what will this new non lead 100 cost ?
 
mandm said:
Gosh doing some xc planning and the fuel prices are wah up there compared to last year. What gives.
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I love the entitled American consumer.

22 months ago crude oil prices were negative, meaning you had to pay someone to take crude oil. When oil busted they closed the wells, fired the employees and loans were in default. The consumers loved the low fuel prices and becomes accustomed and their hair now catches fire with the higher prices.

A few months ago North Dakota had 8 fracking crews and needed 26. With the well field shut down the employees with no pay checks left. OPEC cannot produce the oil they say they will because of the shut down. Oil inventories are down, demand is up and you are seeing higher prices.
 
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Clip4 said:
I love the entitled American consumer.

22 months ago crude oil prices were negative, meaning you had to pay someone to take crude oil. When oil busted they closed the wells, fired the employees and loans were in default. The consumers loved the low fuel prices and becomes accustomed and their hair now catches fire with the higher prices.

A few months ago North Dakota had 8 fracking crews and needed 26. With the well field shut down the employees with no pay checks left. OPEC cannot produce the oil they say they will because of the shut down. Oil inventories are down, demand is up and you are seeing higher prices.
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Yes, feeling entitled to certain quality of living is a sure sign of progress so I am not sure what is your point here … I don’t want to go back and why should I ?
 
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