So back to this thread... I forgot I didn't post a follow up...
First, thanks for all the advice. Also to Scott especially, whom I've received his info many times on these boards - and after this thread and my weekend, I signed up for his axwxworkshops.com site and have been going thru a workshop everytime I have a few minutes - very good stuff, and cheaper for 6 months of wx goodness than half an hour of fuel flying!
So - the trip went horrible. 7.7hrs in two days, from I73 to 44c and back.
Here is a summary of the trip:
Saturday, Oct 23rd:
9 am ET, leave for I73. Forecast is consistent with the first one I posted here, except winds around 230 @ 12kts at 44C, but dying down to 8-10 around 1CT.
I see my instructor from my PPL, and we chat about a few things and look at the weather on the computer. He says the rain isnt that bad, but obviously could change but prob not thunderstorms given the temps and such. I agree, and decide to go.
But first, he shows me a pretty '63 182 for sale at the airport... so I end up departing just before 11am ET.
At this point, the forecast for the Rockford/JVL area calls for ceilings 4500 or so in the afternoon, until 7pm central. So I figure I am still good.
I depart I73 with ceilings around 8-10k. I'm flying at 6500.
You can see in the graph (from flightaware) that I start descending... just before this, center calls me up and asks if I am aware of a "moderate precipitation band 6-8 miles ahead".
I tell them no, but thanks, and that I see some up ahead, but am only in very light precip with unlimited visibility at the time. About 2 minutes after that, the rain begins. I can see out the side window great (GPS says the airport I can see off the left wing is 12-14 miles), but forward viz is dropping.
I descend. About 35-3700 I am in good viz but still some rain. It is a little bumpy but not too bad.
In hindsight - this is what I was in -
Once I got out of this line... things cleared up nicely. Some scattered clouds at 4500, but nothing solid.
Little did I know, the low pressure coming from Iowa that was supposed to go NE into northern WI ended up coming straight east.
Just around the JOT vor, I turned north to 44C (with the intention to divert to JVL if winds were not friendly at 44C). I watched my ground speed go from 97-100kts to 145kts. Whoa!
I started searching for AWOS stations in the north... some were reporting 10-15kts from the south, some still saying 10-12 from the west as forecast. Odd.
I had flight following all the way thru Chicago, and was handed off to Rockford (TRSA). About 20 miles from 44C, they ask my intentions.. This was because JVL's most recent report went from 3500 scattered to 700 overcast in short order. I told them it was still very scattered where I was, and I'd continue to 44C and figure it out.
I get to Beloit. Well, I get where the GPS tells me it is... completely cloud locked. I turn around, and start noticing that while I am at 4000', I cant see the ground anymore. There are a few holes here and there, which I think I can dive into and land... but realize that I'll dive into a 700' ceiling and promptly do something stupid and die. Not good.
I turn south, and start looking thru the AOPA airports directory on my iphone (glad I downloaded the offline stuff earlier that morning!). My plan to JVL is toast as its completely IFR... and Poplar Grove or another nearby airport is not an option - as all the reports went from the expected winds to 20kts sustained, gusting to 30-35kts, at 190-210. Being a low-time pilot without the best crosswind skills in a 172, I have no desire to try this out today.
I find Dekalb (DKB) airport with a 2/20 realllly long runway, and plug that into the 600C (direct-to at 100kts IAS, with the headwind,was 58kts ground speed...ick). I get into the pattern and have now been pushed to about 1000AGL... not a fun time. I'm getting bumped all over the place and really have that "I wanna be down there" feeling.
I turn downwind for 20 and realize that the winds are still 40kts at 1000AGL. I get on final, a little high expecting this could take a while... and end up plowing the power on to feel comfortable. I land with 10 degrees of flaps a few hundred feet down the runway.
In the midst of this, I glance at the GPS - about 30 feet over the runway I my GS was just under 30kts. Yeesh.
I touch down, thank God the wind was right down the runway and the gusts were not too bad (the AWOS on taxi says 22g32). Taxiing to the ramp proved to be a challenge - I had full right rudder and almost full brake just to make it go straight when perpendicular to the wind...
I ended up staying at DKB for a while, getting much needed fuel for the plane and myself... I burned 3 hours catching up on work and email... then departed for 44C when the winds died down.. Landed there with a 3500 ceiling and 12-15kts down the runway.
In summary - I didnt like what I did..first time I've really scared myself...
I've started my IFR written studying already. And also trying to figure out weather forecast a bit better... live and learn!
Regards,
Mike
