Float plane down in Mutiny Bay, Washington State

Horrible accident
 
1967 DEHAVILLAND DHC-3
Fixed wing single engine
(11 seats / 1 engine)
Owner
NORTHWEST SEAPLANES INC
RENTON , WA, US
(Corporation)
upload_2022-9-4_19-43-6.png
 
Yikes!

My parents and their friends built a beach house on Mutiny Bay in the 1950s. I remember seeing a float plane on the bay at least once, but no crashes. Must have been a terrifying descent. :(
 
Here in Seattle recovery ops are still ongoing. Not much to add to the ads-b read out. Witnesses heard a variety of sounds. Scattered Cloud deck was a little low but nothing out of the ordinary. Hence the 1500 altitude. Tragic and the pilot was well known. Could be nearly anything including bird strike. Waiting for NTSB.
 
kgruber said:
I don't see how it could have been going to Sea-Tac without amphibious floats.
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Post #3 lists the company's location as Renton, so maybe it was headed for the seaplane base there.
 
Palmpilot said:
Post #3 lists the company's location as Renton, so maybe it was headed for the seaplane base there.
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Local news (FWIW) reporting flight was from Friday Harbor to Renton.
 
I'm not one to speculate without more data. But I am struck by the apparent suddenness of the event, based on ADS-B track and data. Direct path, no terminal deviation/maneuvering, altitude constant until the end, speed constant until slight decline at the last moment. Structural failure? Someone suggested bird strike (?). (Cruising at only 900' altitude may raise bird strike risk (?). Weather was fine below 5,000'.

HHH

States Flown.jpg
 
Hunter Handsfield said:
I'm not one to speculate without more data. But I am struck by the apparent suddenness of the event, based on ADS-B track and data. Direct path, no terminal deviation/maneuvering, altitude constant until the end, speed constant until slight decline at the last moment. Structural failure? Someone suggested bird strike (?).
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I wouldn't think the ~500 foot altitude would give that much higher bird strike risk. Accident happened over the water, and seabirds would be looking for food down low. Could be a transient bird of some sort or the "golden seagull," but there's no more evidence for that than there is for structural failure, prop going into beta, engine ripping off the firewall, pilot incapacitation, aliens, etc. etc. etc. Examination of the wreckage will be key.

Ron Wanttaja
 
No disagreement at all. My bird comment was considering the difference in risk below 1,000' ft vs higher. Not surprised if most bird strikes are highest much lower, maybe especially over water.

Hunter Handsfield

States Flown.jpg
 
Bird strikes: close calls at 2k with a pair of Trumpeter swans, several Bald Eagles, a Osprey in my Seattle flying. And now a lot of young birds and fall migrating so they are out there. Long shot for issues here, but possible pilot incapacitation is a thing.

But nevertheless, on the subject for Monday. News: Plane has been found 200 feet deep. Steep dive noted while on course to Renton. Some wreckage found, looks like floor boards. 7 NTSB on route. Coast guard suspended search for survivors within the hour now, which given the water temperatures in Puget Sound were pretty iffy after a couple of hours last night. TV Interviewed a coast guarder who talked about Florida survivors after many days - well, Puget Sound is no Florida beach. Why you have press people.
 
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skyking3286 said:
Bird strikes: close calls at 2k with a pair of Trumpeter swans, several Bald Eagles, a Osprey in my Seattle flying. And now a lot of young birds and fall migrating so they are out there. Long shot for issues here, but possible pilot incapacitation is a thing.
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Sure, don't disagree. But I think the risk at 500 feet is probably not that much more different than 2000 feet. Here's video of a raptor pass I caught on a GoPro 18 months ago. I was at 1500 MSL, about 1400 AGL but the raised area in the background is about 400 feet high.
Buddy of mine was actually flying that same route, just 20 minutes ahead of the seaplane. He reports light turbulence and good VFR at 3,000 feet.

Ron Wanttaja
 
One of the few plausible and well reasoned Gryder discussions--worth a few minutes. It's a short one without a lot of music and arm waving. He must be paying attention to feedback.

 
Dan makes a case for a place to look at first. Hopefully the wreckage will be intact enough. We already have locals in Seattle saying old airplanes belong in museums after this. I would assume a 100 hour inspection would uncover corrosion and fatigue issues.
 
I would think the only bird strike capable of taking down a plane like that would be a direct hit on the windscreen and the pilot. I would also think that a bird taking that route would be seagull sashimi before it hit the windscreen.
 
skyking3286 said:
Dan makes a case for a place to look at first. Hopefully the wreckage will be intact enough. We already have locals in Seattle saying old airplanes belong in museums after this. I would assume a 100 hour inspection would uncover corrosion and fatigue issues.
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Based on the other cases Dan brought up, it seemed like the common denominator was the turbine. If I had the same type of plane, I’d want to inspect the elevator assy turbine or not, but especially if turbine converted.
 
Looking at the graph, the aircraft was stepping up in altitude from ~600' to about 1000' in a few seconds just before a final climb and final descent.

Possible strike into a flock of geese.

Since we haven't heard about any radio calls, it might be possible there was a catastrophic break-up.

Sad.
 
At the beach last week, I observed a large flock of pelicans much higher than I've seen before, like 750-1K. There are tour helicopters, tour float planes, para-sail operations and quite a bit of GA traffic in that airspace as people site see along the shore. My first thought was pelicans are big, heavy, lumbering/not very maneuverable birds made worse by flying in a dense formation. Any chance encounter w/ them would likely be tragic. Any loss of life is tragic but it seems even more so when it's pure happenstance...if that's what happened here.
 
skyking3286 said:
... We already have locals in Seattle saying old airplanes belong in museums after this....
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We have supposedly well educated and very influential people in Seattle saying all kinds of ridiculous stuff. The rest of the state pretty much ignores Seattle liberals and their self-serving proclamations of virtue.
 
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wilkersk said:
The rest of the state pretty much ignores Seattle liberals and their self-serving proclamations of virtue.
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The rest of the nation pretty much ignores them as well. I fear the political leaders there initiated a stall-spin scenario, then insisted on holding the same incorrect control inputs until that once-wonderful city augered in.
 
RyanShort1 said:
Based on the other cases Dan brought up, it seemed like the common denominator was the turbine. If I had the same type of plane, I’d want to inspect the elevator assy turbine or not, but especially if turbine converted.
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It appears as if virtually all of these craft that are operated commercially have the turbine conversion, so it may mean littlle.
 
GaryM said:
The rest of the nation pretty much ignores them as well. I fear the political leaders there initiated a stall-spin scenario, then insisted on holding the same incorrect control inputs until that once-wonderful city augered in.
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Now that’s a good analogy. Really good. I’m gonna use it. You don’t like got it copyrighted do you. And it goes far beyond any one city. I might go so far as to say it’s the state of the union.
 
skyking3286 said:
Dan makes a case for a place to look at first. Hopefully the wreckage will be intact enough. We already have locals in Seattle saying old airplanes belong in museums after this. I would assume a 100 hour inspection would uncover corrosion and fatigue issues.
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I don’t know anything about Northwest Seaplanes other than its reputation as a good outfit, and I am not claiming with what I am about to say that the company is anything other than such.

That being said, I’ve worked for companies whose idea of a 100 hour is making sure that all the large parts are still attached with a quick glance from the computer chair whilst filling out the paperwork for the inspection. If you do actual inspections you might find something wrong with the airplane, and then the airplane won’t be able to make money!
 
luvflyin said:
Now that’s a good analogy. Really good. I’m gonna use it. You don’t like got it copyrighted do you. And it goes far beyond any one city. I might go so far as to say it’s the state of the union.
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Thanks. It's an original--I made it up as I was responding to the post--but feel free to use it. Sadly, I agree it does apply to more than a few cities.
 
luvflyin said:
Now that’s a good analogy. Really good. I’m gonna use it. You don’t like got it copyrighted do you. And it goes far beyond any one city. I might go so far as to say it’s the state of the union.
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I haven't seen any evidence at all of a political slant on the accident in the media or anywhere else other than this discussion. It's BS, IMHO.

HHH, MD
States Flown.jpg
 
DavidWhite said:
I don’t know anything about Northwest Seaplanes other than its reputation as a good outfit, and I am not claiming with what I am about to say that the company is anything other than such.
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The same friend of mine who flew the same route twenty minutes ahead of the Otter that day also had previously flown as a passenger on the Otter with his family. He describes the pilot as being very professional an conscientious, and the airplane as being "really strong and clean."

On follow-up discussions with him, he did note a squall line seemed to be moving in, although it was not that close to the accident site. The turbulence they encountered on the way was light, though he did mention a couple of hits they took, probably due the same conditions that created the squall line. My friend has been in contact with the NTSB to share his observations.

One thing that MIGHT come from this is some certificate action for Northwest Seaplanes. They're a charter outfit, but some of their operations seem kinda close to a scheduled airline. I'm not versed in the 121/135 regulations, but seems like using a single-engine aircraft might be in question.

Ron Wanttaja
 
wanttaja said:
They're a charter outfit, but some of their operations seem kinda close to a scheduled airline. I'm not versed in the 121/135 regulations, but seems like using a single-engine aircraft might be in question.

Ron Wanttaja
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Their website mentions running “schedules” so I’m guessing they have a commuter certificate. VFR single-engine scheduled is fine, IFR there’s an ops-spec for that. Either way the feds wouldn’t be letting someone get away with something like that if it wasn’t legit.
 
wanttaja said:
They're a charter outfit, but some of their operations seem kinda close to a scheduled airline. I'm not versed in the 121/135 regulations, but seems like using a single-engine aircraft might be in question.
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FYI: Part 135 allows scheduled flights with additional restrictions and the use of single-engine aircraft. Its a common mix scheduled, tours, charter, etc. with operators of this type.
 
DavidWhite said:
Their website mentions running “schedules” so I’m guessing they have a commuter certificate. VFR single-engine scheduled is fine, IFR there’s an ops-spec for that. Either way the feds wouldn’t be letting someone get away with something like that if it wasn’t legit.
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I'm sure you're right. They are based literally a mile or so from the Seattle FSDO, which is legendarily hard-nosed.

Ron Wanttaja
 
skyking3286 said:
Dan makes a case for a place to look at first. Hopefully the wreckage will be intact enough. We already have locals in Seattle saying old airplanes belong in museums after this. I would assume a 100 hour inspection would uncover corrosion and fatigue issues.
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Many Seattle residents shouldn’t be trusted with anything sharper than a Twinkie without adult supervision.
 
wilkersk said:
We have supposedly well educated and very influential people in Seattle saying all kinds of ridiculous stuff. The rest of the state pretty much ignores Seattle liberals and their self-serving proclamations of virtue.
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I'm sure we were all very eager to learn your political views.
 
It gets interesting. NTSB announced Friday the plane was just three days off of the 100 hour inspection. Missing or loose bolt/nut not safetied? Trim tab not fully installed? Witness reports lean toward that sort of speculation.
 
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