gismo
Touchdown! Greaser!
I'm torn. If I go over, the plane probably won't die and I'll be just fine. I'll save $150 and about an hour and a half round-trip. But it's kind-of a battle between my logic which says go for it, and my gut instinct that says go around. I'm pretty sure I'll be making this flight a lot, but for now I think I'm going to play it safe. I've got less than 45 hours of flight time, and at the moment only 1.5 in a Cherokee - I scream inexperience, and while I think I could fly a strait line IFR across the lake just fine, it'll be challenge enough for this to be my first flight longer than 3 hours.
So I think in the future I will fly over the lake, but this time I think the odds are stacked up against me a little too much for my comfort.
Trust me on this, you will be far more comfortable avoiding the overwater route. Flying is supposed to be fun and I'd be willing to bet you'd become anxious about halfway across the lake the first time. And if the sky was hazy you could end up near to panic if you lost the horizon part way across. It's hard to describe the way the sky melts into the water under the right conditions but that's claimed many a pilot.