Ernesto's path

woodstock

woodstock

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ignoring for the moment that SOMEone is going to get hit by this storm (and let's hope it doesn't get too powerful...) I hear now it may hit Florida first before going across the state and hitting Savannah on Thursday - the day we are all due to arrive (friends and family) at my house down there.

I'm planning to go as long as the planes are flying - I figure they err on the cautious side and if they are flying it's good to go... but I really hope I don't have to learn how to put up hurricane panels this soon!

anyone here obsessive storm watchers?
 
woodstock said:
ignoring for the moment that SOMEone is going to get hit by this storm (and let's hope it doesn't get too powerful...) I hear now it may hit Florida first before going across the state and hitting Savannah on Thursday - the day we are all due to arrive (friends and family) at my house down there.

I'm planning to go as long as the planes are flying - I figure they err on the cautious side and if they are flying it's good to go... but I really hope I don't have to learn how to put up hurricane panels this soon!

anyone here obsessive storm watchers?
Click to expand...

It appears that it'll track right up the state. My hope is that it'll move quickly and not get a chance to strengthen over the warm water of the Florida Straights. Hopefully, by the time it reaches you, it will be nothing stonger than a squall line.
 
I am a big time storm watcher. With all the family in Florida and the pilot thing they defer to me to interpret the WX for them. Right now the storm is showing a track that will have it enter south Florida about the Key Largo/Florida City area and then track up the middle of the state and renter the water at Jacksonville.

The forecast models have it holding huricanne strength that entire time but I have a had time seeing how that is possible. The upper air look like they will continue to push the forecast track to the east so there is a chance that the storm will be out in the Atlantic. The next 24 hours will be critical as we need to see what happens with it as it passes over Cuba. The longer the better for weakening. Shorter and that could be good for Florida as it means the storm has turned east and will head more towards the Bahamas.

The next update is at noon.
115600.shtml

NWC National Huricane Center said:
00
WTNT45 KNHC 280901
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTING THE CYCLONE HAS MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004
MB...BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 35 KT. THEREFORE...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 48 KT SO FAR...BUT AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
OVER PASS INDICATED HI-RESOLUTION WINDS OF 40-45 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS JUST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/10. THE RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND AS NEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP AND THE CENTER HAS
MOVED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA ALSO INDICATES THAT
THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED...SO A MORE GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SHORTLY. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE THE LATEST NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT
DROPSONDE DATA IN THEM...AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE BETTER AGREEMENT
AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD
POSITION NOTED IN RECON AND RADAR DATA...AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUNA...GUNS...CONU...AND CCON CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
Click to expand...
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
 
hmmmmmmmmmm, if it really is going to "hit" around 2 AM Friday... Mom and Dad are due to land at 11 PM that night. boy this is gonna be close. I'm due in at 7 PM myself... I hope it dies down.
 
I love being at the beach or outside as a near-hurricane passes by. A couple years ago we sat on our back porch as Frances passed over, going out for a while to start the swimming pool draining.

Tropical storm: Go watch it!
Cat 1-2: Do moderate preparation. Stay inside and play games until the power goes out.
Cat 3: Do some serious preparation and hunker down. Be prepared for damage.
Cat 4+: Evac.
 
Ken Ibold said:
I love being at the beach or outside as a near-hurricane passes by. A couple years ago we sat on our back porch as Frances passed over, going out for a while to start the swimming pool draining.

Tropical storm: Go watch it!
Cat 1-2: Do moderate preparation. Stay inside and play games until the power goes out.
Cat 3: Do some serious preparation and hunker down. Be prepared for damage.
Cat 4+: Evac.
Click to expand...

Totally agree. There's just something about raw weather that I really love. Anytime a tropical storm or hurricane is predicted to pass off shore, I'll drive out the beach to watch. Mother Nature is awesome to watch.
 
Frank Browne said:
Totally agree. There's just something about raw weather that I really love. Anytime a tropical storm or hurricane is predicted to pass off shore, I'll drive out the beach to watch. Mother Nature is awesome to watch.
Click to expand...

I remember sitting on the beach on Islesford, Maine when the No-Name of 1991 ("The Perfect Storm") retrograded and smashed ashore. We saw 15' breakers that I've never, ever, ever seen before.

Watching the weather is one of the few truely amazing experiences left.

Cheers,

-Andrew
 
woodstock said:
ignoring for the moment that SOMEone is going to get hit by this storm (and let's hope it doesn't get too powerful...) I hear now it may hit Florida first before going across the state and hitting Savannah on Thursday - the day we are all due to arrive (friends and family) at my house down there.
Click to expand...
Elizabeth,
MY family is meeting in Ridgeland, SC for a reunion sort of thing on Thursday/Friday! My wife and I were just talking about this thing - given Ridgeland is not that far inland from Beaufort!

We'll be waiting to see what it's going to do, too, I reckon . . .
 
The 11am update shows the path even more to the east. Starting look on shore at Miami and then offshore again Port St. Lucy witht eh tun to the east. That will spare Jacksonville and Savahna.

Reading the prob. statements it looks like that track may still swing a bit more easterly.
 
Well if Ernesto is taking the I95 corridor, that will slow it down some. I95 traffic really stinks during the week...
 
Frank Browne said:
Totally agree. There's just something about raw weather that I really love. Anytime a tropical storm or hurricane is predicted to pass off shore, I'll drive out the beach to watch. Mother Nature is awesome to watch.
Click to expand...

I've been to Tofino before in the summer time. I'd LOVE to go there one winter and spend a week in the Wickaninnish Inn watching the storms...
 
etsisk said:
Elizabeth,
MY family is meeting in Ridgeland, SC for a reunion sort of thing on Thursday/Friday! My wife and I were just talking about this thing - given Ridgeland is not that far inland from Beaufort!

We'll be waiting to see what it's going to do, too, I reckon . . .
Click to expand...


if you are still in the area we should meet up for coffee!
 
smigaldi said:
The 11am update shows the path even more to the east. Starting look on shore at Miami and then offshore again Port St. Lucy witht eh tun to the east. That will spare Jacksonville and Savahna.

Reading the prob. statements it looks like that track may still swing a bit more easterly.
Click to expand...


My realtor said when hurricanes are threatening at all it tends to make their weather a little better - gets rid of the humidity and the storms USUALLY bypass them entirely. there's always a first time though...
 
woodstock said:
My realtor said when hurricanes are threatening at all it tends to make their weather a little better - gets rid of the humidity and the storms USUALLY bypass them entirely. there's always a first time though...
Click to expand...

That is true. Some of the best WX is just before the Huricane gets there. The last huricane I was in was Francis and I went fly 7 hours before it came. It was wonderful, smooth air with only high cirrus.

BTW the 2pm update shows the track still moving eastward with the huricane exiting the Florida landmass around Palm Beach. This one may just stay off of the east coast and follow it up north. Based on what I see you'll get some waves and rain IMHO or until the forecast changes.
 
smigaldi said:
That is true. Some of the best WX is just before the Huricane gets there. The last huricane I was in was Francis and I went fly 7 hours before it came. It was wonderful, smooth air with only high cirrus.

BTW the 2pm update shows the track still moving eastward with the huricane exiting the Florida landmass around Palm Beach. This one may just stay off of the east coast and follow it up north. Based on what I see you'll get some waves and rain IMHO or until the forecast changes.
Click to expand...

ok Scott, we're depending on you to make us all feel better! I'll check back - hopefully it will leave us alone entirely and just head out to sea.
 
Daughter is flying MIA-ORD wed PM for interviews Thursday. Or she hopes. Ol' Ernie needs to keep sliding east. It would be nice to get her out of there.
 
woodstock said:
ok Scott, we're depending on you to make us all feel better! I'll check back .
Click to expand...

Just got off the phone with mom giving her the same info. My job is to analyse all this stuff and let her iknow that it all be ok. I have had to fly down to ride a storm or two with her in the past.
 
Frank Browne said:
Totally agree. There's just something about raw weather that I really love. Anytime a tropical storm or hurricane is predicted to pass off shore, I'll drive out the beach to watch. Mother Nature is awesome to watch.
Click to expand...

You got that right. It's fun to go out and chase tornados and spectacularly bad weather...as long as I'm not on the motorcycle at the time. There's nothing like having to hunker down and wait it out because there's no other choice. It gives you a good solid reality check on what's truly important in the real world.

I think a bit of the appeal has to do with the fact that no matter how much people think they're in control of reality or how much power they pretend to give themselves, nature can come along and sucker punch them really hard without even trying.



Humanity: My pen is mightier than my neighbors sword so they must do as I say. I am supreme to all and nothing is more powerful than I. My money rules all. The entire Universe must submit to my will. Bwaahahhahaha!!
Nature: Yea, sure, whatever. You want power? Fine! I'm bored with nothing better to do right now so let's see here...I think I'll just run a couple Category 5 hurricanes across several of your cities, especially that one below sea level on the coast, over the next couple weeks and there's absolutely nothing you can do about it. P.S. I'll toss in a few dozen tornado's and lots of flooding for those who are getting complacent about severe weather.
Humanity: Hogwash, I am all powerful.
Nature: Oh yea, watch this...
Humanity: GACK! SAKLE! GURGLE!
Nature: Next...
 
fgcason said:
I think a bit of the appeal has to do with the fact that no matter how much people think they're in control of reality or how much power they pretend to give themselves, nature can come along and sucker punch them really hard without even trying.
Click to expand...

That's for sure. I spent a number of years on the water, sterning on a lobster boat. Every once in a while, you'd haul traps after a big storm and see the offshore gear - which could easily support a truck - crumpled up like a ball of paper. And you'd realize, that beautiful, calming sea could turn on you and rip you to miniscule shreds without even a thought.

No matter how much she scares you, her siren song never stops...

Cheers,

-Andrew
 
woodstock said:
My realtor said when hurricanes are threatening at all it tends to make their weather a little better - gets rid of the humidity and the storms USUALLY bypass them entirely. there's always a first time though...
Click to expand...

Was that before or after you signed the contract?

Len
 
etsisk said:
Elizabeth,
MY family is meeting in Ridgeland, SC for a reunion sort of thing on Thursday/Friday! My wife and I were just talking about this thing - given Ridgeland is not that far inland from Beaufort!

We'll be waiting to see what it's going to do, too, I reckon . . .
Click to expand...
Tom,

This might be a good opportunity to dust off that brand shiny new pilots license and give it a go. Long X-Country - Yeah!!!!:no:
 
NC Pilot said:
Tom,

This might be a good opportunity to dust off that brand shiny new pilots license and give it a go. Long X-Country - Yeah!!!!:no:
Click to expand...
I, uh, noticed a bit of a, well, double message there, Mark, my man!

Just think, though - were I a big enough idiot to do that (no assessments, please) why, I could have 3 or 4 years of weather experience crammed into one long cross country!! Think how much I would learn! (um, in the 17 seconds I remained alive, that is...:eek:)
 
woodstock said:
ignoring for the moment that SOMEone is going to get hit by this storm (and let's hope it doesn't get too powerful...)
Click to expand...

My fiancee lives in Maimi. Of course .. leaving isn't in her vocabulary ..
she just shutters up, hunkers down and rides them out. Including Andrew
while it did $80k damage to her house. Geez ..
 
moving back at you Elizabeth but looks like it will be weak at this point. We will know better by Tuesday night of course, cause it will be closer.
 
RogerT said:
My fiancee lives in Maimi. Of course .. leaving isn't in her vocabulary ..
she just shutters up, hunkers down and rides them out. Including Andrew
while it did $80k damage to her house. Geez ..
Click to expand...
I lived in Miami during Andrew as well. That one caught everyone by surprise with its intensity. I would not want to go through that again. My grandmother would have called it a character builder.
 
woodstock said:
let's hope weak - weak enough to fly into!!
Click to expand...
But I'll not be flying - or driving - into it! I'll be staying at home wid de pooches this go 'round.

Maria and I do want to get down to the Savannah area again before too long - we'll stay with my uncle in Ridgeland and daytrip into your lovely Southern city. Let's keep in touch and maybe we can get down there some time when you're there and have lunch?
 
etsisk said:
But I'll not be flying - or driving - into it! I'll be staying at home wid de pooches this go 'round.

Maria and I do want to get down to the Savannah area again before too long - we'll stay with my uncle in Ridgeland and daytrip into your lovely Southern city. Let's keep in touch and maybe we can get down there some time when you're there and have lunch?
Click to expand...


sounds like a plan Stan. where is Ridgeland? how far from Beaufort? I'm about 20 mins from Beaufort, 20 mins from Savannah (taking the back roads) and about 20 minutes or less (depending on traffic) from HHI.
 
Gosh what i wouldnt do to be a pilot for NOAA!! Fly into hurricanes :)
 
woodstock said:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/150927.shtml?3day?large

Scott - this is looking better, yes?

stupid question - if he's nearly to VA by Friday morning - what does that mean for Georgia the night before?
Click to expand...
looking better as it is staying a TS and begins moving fast. If it does move that fast into GA it will probably mean a lot of rain and not too fast a wind speed. Which is all signs of a dying storm instead of a building one. It is still close to Savanaha and that rain can cause flodding. So check where you are at and plan accordingly.
 
Latest from Marathon Airport
METAR [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]KMTH [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]291755Z AUTO 07017G28KT 3/4SM +TSRA BR BKN014 BKN036 OVC055 24/22 A2988 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W AND NW P0009 [/FONT]

TAF [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]KMTH [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]291129Z 291212 06012KT P6SM VCTS SCT025CB BKN200
FM1800 04018G28KT P6SM VCTS SCT020CB OVC080
TEMPO 1821 3SM TSRA BKN020CB
FM2100 02030G40KT 6SM RA BKN020 OVC050 PROB30 2103 36045KT 2SM TSRA OVC010CB[/FONT]
 
Elizabeth the latest discussion has a possibility that Ernesto could regain huricane strength once it moves out into the Atlantic. They ahve issued a huricane watch for your GA. area. But it still look like the center of the storm will be well out to sea. That is good for you for lower winds. But there could still be a good amount of rain.
 
woodstock said:
sounds like a plan Stan. where is Ridgeland? how far from Beaufort? I'm about 20 mins from Beaufort, 20 mins from Savannah (taking the back roads) and about 20 minutes or less (depending on traffic) from HHI.
Click to expand...
Funny!! I'm looking in airnav for khhi wondering where that airport is - finally hit me, Hilton Head Island! Sometimes I wonder about me . . .


Ridgeland is 31 miles west of Beaufort, 35 miles nw of Savannah - right on I95.

Yeah, it'd be a hoot to have lunch or something! :D
 
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