denverpilot
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You know the answer.
Partisans figured out how to turn it into a fake “only two answers possible” question, like everything, and it’s an election year.
Can’t discuss the rest of “why” here, but it’s all about money.
Did you catch it ?
- Thread starter Tom-D
- Start date
You know the answer.
Partisans figured out how to turn it into a fake “only two answers possible” question, like everything, and it’s an election year.
Can’t discuss the rest of “why” here, but it’s all about money.
Everskyward
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I think too much is made of the difference between urban and rural. It seems as if rural places have their outbreaks too, in places where people are in close quarters. That seems to be the key. Rural areas have places where people gather, such as restaurants and bars just like urban areas. Urban areas have more festivals and large, crowded events, but then there's Oshkosh. I would say the only factor that would cause crowding in urban areas that doesn't happen in rural areas is public transportation. Many people don't have cars, that includes younger people. I know rural people find that hard to believe. I did too. Also, parking is a problem, which is why I sometimes take public transportation. But, in general, it is not that hard to avoid crowds, even in pre-covid days.
On the other hand, in rural areas many people attend church services and socials, unlike those Godless heathen in Gotham.
denverpilot
Tied Down
Not sure if that’s directed at me but I’m trying to be more realism than cynic.
We’ve treated 10 million total for a disease and put 55 million out of work and rising.
My own Governor is a numbers guy and has generally been following them in regards to the disease (except nursing homes - still no plan there for the next year of outbreaks) but he joined a pact with his partisans to ask for $3T more devaluation bucks.
It would be insane of him not to, and be left out if it happens, and insane of him to do it, both.
So he chooses party over numbers with nothing better to operate from. Because there’s much bigger lasting repercussions for him personally if he’s seen as “not a team player”.
Just human nature. He’s screwed either way as are all of them.
They’re literally balancing who is allowed to eat over who gets to wait in line to get sick.
And that’s the servants.
There’s certainly more evil ones who’ll happily crash various systems to claim they need replacing. Private medical, Medicaid, the list is long and too political for here.
But “overload” of those things or mass bankruptcy benefits some of their political careers.
The unqualified small town Mayor McCheeses taking over areas they had no reason to — is only the tip of the iceberg once DC thinktanks start outlining their strategies for domination.
Can’t waste a crisis.
They NEVER do, and that looks like cynicism to anyone who doesn’t watch closely and thinks they’re all “serving” them, and realism to everybody else.
Quite a bit of it is inertia and “what they do”... if you spend a lifetime doing 90% politics, you’re utterly unqualified to lead an emergency. Most will revert to their comfort zone as soon as they have the option.
No option on initial distancing, that was math.
Now options open up, and they will always choose the best path for their tribe.
230 million “represented” by a bit over 500 has always been mathematically silly. But any chance you can get to hang a policy decision on one person with no votes and no representation — you grab that.
And then that person stays with their real tribe, their peers. Not the represented.
For better or worse, you’re under the control of your State Governor now. Not your elected representatives locally. And they’re answering to DC.
So far only one State’s highest court has struck down any new rules any have created without real representation of constituents.
This will all be still in the courts years after the thing is over with. We’ve already seen one AG tell a judge he made up law. When even the AG doesn’t want to prosecute... and the judge imposed an “iffy” rule that one person mandated via “emergency powers”... what a mess.
Retreating to the relative safety of one’s tribe, politically, over leading via best guesses at a natural phenomena the experts have no real answers for, is clearly ... predictable human behavior.
If my local Czar can stay even slightly balanced, it’s about all I can hope for.
Everybody else here knows how balanced their own captors currently are in their State.
Good luck to those who don’t have numbers based people temporarily in complete control... with no recourse that will actually matter in time, before it’s all over with.
Cynicism or realism? I don’t see any evidence these repetitive well-documented partisan behaviors actually change. It’s all too ingrained in them.
Plus, follow the money. None is living off of what they’re paid for their “service”. Both sides in the intel meetings made sure they hit the eject button for themselves personally from the stock market, long before announcing it to you.
Servants care for others over or before themselves.
Leaders take pay cuts when they’re asking others to do so.
Not going to see many of either at many political podiums.
Anyway that’s the best I can do to stay non-political about it here.
Some of these folks who did things under cover of emergency powers would have been being threatened with arrest by now, in any other time. We don’t give one person full authority for months in our system of government.
But we do now. The “emergency” loopholes are going to be highly examined over the next many years. It’ll take half a year to even get back to Representative government in some areas.
Define the “emergency”. It was stopping exponential growth. What is it now?
That’s the cynic talking right at the end...
We’ve treated 10 million total for a disease and put 55 million out of work and rising.
My own Governor is a numbers guy and has generally been following them in regards to the disease (except nursing homes - still no plan there for the next year of outbreaks) but he joined a pact with his partisans to ask for $3T more devaluation bucks.
It would be insane of him not to, and be left out if it happens, and insane of him to do it, both.
So he chooses party over numbers with nothing better to operate from. Because there’s much bigger lasting repercussions for him personally if he’s seen as “not a team player”.
Just human nature. He’s screwed either way as are all of them.
They’re literally balancing who is allowed to eat over who gets to wait in line to get sick.
And that’s the servants.
There’s certainly more evil ones who’ll happily crash various systems to claim they need replacing. Private medical, Medicaid, the list is long and too political for here.
But “overload” of those things or mass bankruptcy benefits some of their political careers.
The unqualified small town Mayor McCheeses taking over areas they had no reason to — is only the tip of the iceberg once DC thinktanks start outlining their strategies for domination.
Can’t waste a crisis.
They NEVER do, and that looks like cynicism to anyone who doesn’t watch closely and thinks they’re all “serving” them, and realism to everybody else.
Quite a bit of it is inertia and “what they do”... if you spend a lifetime doing 90% politics, you’re utterly unqualified to lead an emergency. Most will revert to their comfort zone as soon as they have the option.
No option on initial distancing, that was math.
Now options open up, and they will always choose the best path for their tribe.
230 million “represented” by a bit over 500 has always been mathematically silly. But any chance you can get to hang a policy decision on one person with no votes and no representation — you grab that.
And then that person stays with their real tribe, their peers. Not the represented.
For better or worse, you’re under the control of your State Governor now. Not your elected representatives locally. And they’re answering to DC.
So far only one State’s highest court has struck down any new rules any have created without real representation of constituents.
This will all be still in the courts years after the thing is over with. We’ve already seen one AG tell a judge he made up law. When even the AG doesn’t want to prosecute... and the judge imposed an “iffy” rule that one person mandated via “emergency powers”... what a mess.
Retreating to the relative safety of one’s tribe, politically, over leading via best guesses at a natural phenomena the experts have no real answers for, is clearly ... predictable human behavior.
If my local Czar can stay even slightly balanced, it’s about all I can hope for.
Everybody else here knows how balanced their own captors currently are in their State.
Good luck to those who don’t have numbers based people temporarily in complete control... with no recourse that will actually matter in time, before it’s all over with.
Cynicism or realism? I don’t see any evidence these repetitive well-documented partisan behaviors actually change. It’s all too ingrained in them.
Plus, follow the money. None is living off of what they’re paid for their “service”. Both sides in the intel meetings made sure they hit the eject button for themselves personally from the stock market, long before announcing it to you.
Servants care for others over or before themselves.
Leaders take pay cuts when they’re asking others to do so.
Not going to see many of either at many political podiums.
Anyway that’s the best I can do to stay non-political about it here.
Some of these folks who did things under cover of emergency powers would have been being threatened with arrest by now, in any other time. We don’t give one person full authority for months in our system of government.
But we do now. The “emergency” loopholes are going to be highly examined over the next many years. It’ll take half a year to even get back to Representative government in some areas.
Define the “emergency”. It was stopping exponential growth. What is it now?
That’s the cynic talking right at the end...
AKiss20
Line Up and Wait
Indeed. Rural areas also tend to have less intensive care capacity per capita, transferring difficult cases to larger, urban area hospitals. Makes it easier to overwhelm rural healthcare systems.
https://www.usnews.com/news/healthi...deaths-growing-at-faster-rates-in-rural-areas
https://www.kff.org/other/issue-brief/covid-19-in-rural-america-is-there-cause-for-concern/
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-05-12/covid-19-now-reaching-into-rural-america
Not you exclusively.
RJM62
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It's a lot easier to exercise common sense in rural communities, if the people have a mind to do so. There are exceptions, particularly in "factory towns" where practically everyone works at the same place; but in general, wide open spaces and private cars do the job nicely.
Rich
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I'm not sure that 'common sense' is more prevalent in rural areas than urban areas. It seems to me that people everywhere have strange ideas, strange to me, anyway.
It's true that it would be easier to physically distance, if you wanted to, in rural areas. However, I'm not sure that there is much of a difference passing someone 10' away as there is 1000' away as far as virus transmission is concerned. I think that rather than focusing on rural or urban, there needs to be more emphasis on places where people will be in close contact with each other for an extended period of time, especially indoors. It seems as if these clusters are the main problem. This could be public transport, restaurants, churches, factories, schools, and the like, where precautions are not taken.
RJM62
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I'm not sure that 'common sense' is more prevalent in rural areas than urban areas. It seems to me that people everywhere have strange ideas, strange to me, anyway.
It's true that it would be easier to physically distance, if you wanted to, in rural areas. However, I'm not sure that there is much of a difference passing someone 10' away as there is 1000' away as far as virus transmission is concerned. I think that rather than focusing on rural or urban, there needs to be more emphasis on places where people will be in close contact with each other for an extended period of time, especially indoors. It seems as if these clusters are the main problem. This could be public transport, restaurants, churches, factories, schools, and the like, where precautions are not taken.
I can assure you common sense is not more prevalent in rural areas. It's just easier to exercise if one is so inclined.
For example, anyone on this train
has the common sense to know they shouldn't be there. But they can't exercise that common sense in a city where many people consider cars to be evil.
About 6 percent of tests in my county have been positive. About 2.2 percent of the county has been tested. All or nearly all have been health-care workers, first responders, or patients with symptoms. As far as I know, asymptomatic people who are not health-care workers or first responders are not yet being tested.
The known positives are about 0.14 percent of the population.
The death rate is about 0.009 percent of the population.
The hospitalization rate is about 0.008 percent of the population.
We do not have a subway.
Rich
Kenny Phillips
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Since people don't know if they are sick, wouldn't be kind and thoughtful for them to wear a mask? A lot of recently discovered symptoms may get people into the cover-up mode.No. If you are worried about getting sick from people who don't even know their sick in public, then you are perfectly free to stay home while the rest of us go about our business.
In other words, if you might be sick, but don't know it, don't act in a manner that could transmit the disease. Golden effin' rule.
But then you're delaying herd immunity. Or Darwinian evolution. Or both.
Everskyward
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Yes, and that's one of the things I find annoying about where I live now. Many people frown on driving your own car. These are people I know, not just the evil government.I can assure you common sense is not more prevalent in rural areas. It's just easier to exercise if one is so inclined.
For example, anyone on this train
has the common sense to know they shouldn't be there. But they can't exercise that common sense in a city where many people consider cars to be evil.
The city and region has gone along with this and has made it more and more difficult for car drivers and owners. The preference is for public transportation, bicycling, and walking. Interesting to see what will happen now as far as public transportation vs. driving.
RJM62
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I don't recall reading anyone objecting to wearing masks. I, for one, have some doubts about how effective they are; but I wear one nonetheless.
Rich
RJM62
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Yes, and that's one of the things I find annoying about where I live now. Many people frown on driving your own car. These are people I know, not just the evil government.
It's horrid public policy in a pandemic, that's for sure.
One of the things I think New York City in particular should do (since there are some people there who own cars, especially in the outer boroughs) is allow people who own cars to get free hack licenses. Color them red or something, and make them valid only upon an emergency being declared. They would then have, in essence, a reserve army of cabbies who could hack for pay if a future pandemic requires temporarily closing the subway.
Of course, it will never be done because so many people believe it's "impossible" to shut down the subway. As someone who's lived through half a dozen full shutdowns of the system and many more partial ones while I lived in The City (and who didn't own a car during most of them), I beg to differ. We did a lot of hoofing, hitch-hiking, and ride-sharing (before it was a thing). It was a pain in the gluteus maximus, but life went on.
Rich
Sure. And I do when necessary. However, my reply was not about masks, but your comment below on suing someone if they make you sick. In that context stay home considering there's no hard evidence that a mask will prevent SARS2 from entering your body. Curious, do you plan to sue the next smoker that walks by you in case some of his 2nd hand smoke gets past your mask and gives you lung cancer?
denverpilot
Tied Down
Seriously, most people can’t spit 10’.
Even at 1’, where my wife has been with hundreds of people, you still don’t have anywhere near a 100% infection rate even without any protection.
It drops off rapidly with distance. Gravity still works.
This is why for 30 years the medical folks who wear ZERO face protection during cold and flu season use GLOVES properly and constant hand washing. They’d pick it up from a SURFACE and stick it in their face long before they’d have a random droplet land in an eye.
Transmissivity numbers were being studied at the beginning of this. It’s a BIG deal. But try finding them today being mentioned. If your protocol is “go home and infect your family”, which it is for anybody breathing reasonably with high enough O2 levels, the last thing you want them aware of is the answer to ...
How long without staying in ONE room with nobody else in it, will I get my family sick? His long without staying in one room? Did anybody ask? Is anyone following up to find out. Nope.
Without a transmissivity hint, even if it’s wrong, and it won’t be 100% in short periods of time with all surfaces cleaned and no contact with clothes, dishes, direct, etc... it would make the whole thing less “scary”.
You can probably live just fine for a while across the hall from a Covid patient if you’re not in a nursing home with mixed staff moving it around. You can definitely go much longer with absolute no mixing of anything between rooms. This is what every hospital that’s open has done, spilt ill and healthy completely. Quarantine the ill. But ... no follow up in self quarantine.
Most in self quarantine can’t even get a diagnosis and never were tested. That’s fine at the beginning but it should be followed up on now. Our hospitalized friend shares a house with her brother who drove her to the ER. She dropped O2 level overnight, bounced, and was sent home with an O2 bottle. No test. Her brother never had symptoms. Was he asymptomatic and had it? No way to find out.
We now have three direct neighbors who have had it. One caught it in late January and went three weeks with a hack. Nobody knew what it was then. She confirmed recently by volunteering to give plasma for victims which forces the best antibody test. Positive.
They know all three family members had it. But unless they all go donate plasma, no confirmation.
Two work in public stores. The one who had it rarely goes anywhere in public and works from home most days and the store is a part time job. Almost guaranteed she caught it there from public interaction. Therefore that store has probably been infecting people since January. She never missed a shift. The other female also works in a store and a kitchen. Early Feb for her. No shifts missed. Dad is a contractor in peoples homes. Early Feb for him also.
So honestly, here’s hoping there’s already a whole lot more like them.
But we won’t know until September at the earliest.
The convo with them was funny in another way. Without me asking they confirmed something else I predicted. “We are only wearing our masks out of politeness - we really don’t care.” When real testing takes off, expect that to become a very strong sentiment amongst those who had it.
But anyway. Yeah 10’ away, pretty unlikely unless the wind is blowing 40 and you get the unlucky draw of whatever tiny percent chance that one is. If anything a big mask just ADDS surface area for it to land on, and as soon as you mishandle it and don’t clean up after touching it... still even that outdoors or 10’ away is a tiny number.
Yes there’s the graphic showing a sneeze in a grocery store aisle floating another aisle over. No mention of how dense the cloud was supposed to be and no mention of the transmissivity at the arbitrary density level.
Most of that is going on the groceries and the floor. Not to face level. You’ll get it from the plastic on the groceries and scratching a face itch when you walk outdoors or in the car where your brain registered you as “in a safer place”.
Karen said “treat everything you touch including door handles as if someone wiped raw chicken on them, mask exterior included” as a way to get this across to someone who likes to cook. Much simpler than arguing mask numbers. Got gloves? Use those the same way. But remember the “stuff” from the store itself got “raw chicken” on it too. As did the box from the UPS guy.
Then decide a personal paranoia level about lifespan of the thing on surfaces. Most data says 3 days on cardboard, 7-10 on hard surfaces. Sunlight and UV seem to shorten, but no solid data.
Can strip to naked and hose down outside if you want. That’s way too far for the nurse here. Outdoor mask wearers give her a gut laugh.
I asked her to give a percentage over 30 years how many times a mask probably saved her over gloves and sanitation. She said not sure but probably 90% sanitation and 10% mask.
She’s also had one or two patient contaminated needle sticks, complete with all the testing “fun” that entails. Yay possible hepatitis...
Everskyward
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Interesting. I don't know any direct neighbors who have had it. Granted, the only neighbors I know are the other dwellers in this 9-unit condo. But half of them are over 70. One is over 90, and she still goes out and about.
One of the people I know who got it, not a neighbor, but someone I grew up with on the other side of the country, said she had been super careful, since she has some immunity issues. She hadn't been outside since well before lockdowns. She lives with other family members, but they didn't get it, so she figures it came in on a package. Of course one of her family members could have been asymptomatic.
NHWannabe
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But not even close to what was expected...which is a good thing. Overall they were severely underutilized including the USNS Hospital Ship.
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/8517...lzANeHwyD1OkKYLbYCsT9uO1DkgzsjVBmxVZ-rs3Zi0u4
RJM62
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I can relate to Karen.
I had to learn about proper PPE use and infection control in NBC warfare training and EMS training. I also think it's almost criminal that the so-called experts telling the rest of us what to do spend so much time obsessing about masks, and so little time teaching people about how to protect themselves against contact transmission.
For example, I don't think I've ever heard any of them explain how important it is to change your shirt, at a minimum, after spending time in a crowded place in a place where the virus is or probably is endemic. What happens is that the longer you spend wearing a mask in a crowded place, the more saturated it becomes with pathogens; and as you exhale, the air forced through the mask can force them to settle on your shirt and pants, especially your shirt. So now your clothes become fomites, as well. But I don't believe I've ever heard anyone talk about on television.
Considering all the time they spend scaring people, intentionally or otherwise, one would think they'd slip something useful into their spiels once in a while.
Rich
Here is a Web site with graphs that show which states have declining numbers of new cases, and which are still increasing. (The data were last updated three days ago.)
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states
Tarheelpilot
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The unions will stop that idea cold.
denverpilot
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Since when is delaying herd immunity, especially during the summer months instead of winter, “winning” when you have hundreds of millions to go still?
Without knowing the infection rates in each State, they’re assuming case numbers by themselves means “win”. What if one or more of those States is way ahead on total infected?
Also may not exactly be “losing” allowing linear growth to continue, to save 55M and rising rapidly from unemployment.
Sketchy assumptions.
But digging in further... “Group” running that site is sketchy too. Looks more like one guy.
Advised Barney Frank during the financial crisis? LOL. That’s the best one.
Claims to advise the military, the Fed, and all sorts of folks — with 4000 unnamed volunteers?
Something smells weird there.
Nice domain name though. Must have known to buy that one early?
Jumped right on that... at GoDaddy.
An MIT guy pretending to be McKensie & Co? That’s the vibe I’m getting.
denverpilot
Tied Down
Our data head at work has been using John’s Hopkins for his grafana graphs he built, for whatever that’s worth. He said none of the various sources he’s played with, agree, really.
My math PhD acquaintance at RPI has been doing some graphs and said he chose whatever source he was using and was going to stick with it, but not to get too hung up on totals, since he was graphing for seeing trends.
Someone is making these for Colorado from the state data over on Reddit and adding significant events.
bnt83
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Every time I go to the grocery store and gas station, its the same employees at the counter. You would think by now someone would have died based on some of the opinions floating around.
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Just because it hasn't happened in your town doesn't mean it isn't happening.
https://www.businessinsider.com/gro...rom-coronavirus-at-least-30-nationwide-2020-4
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/12/grocery-worker-fear-death-coronavirus/
The current death count for the U.S. is about 87,000. The population of the U.S. is about 330 million, so the deaths so far amount to about 0.026 percent of the population. If the number of deaths among grocery store and gas station workers were typical of the population as a whole, you would have to know about 4,000 of such workers before you would expect to know one who had died.
bnt83
Final Approach
Its is weird because I know personally about 10 people that have died in car accidents in the last 15 years. At least 2 off the top of my head that died in small aircraft crashes
How many in the last three months?
bnt83
Final Approach
Its been a while, recent one I can think of was two years ago, senior in high school, she died in a head-on going to school IIRC.
The worst one I can remember was last year, 5 teen girls involved, all intoxicated, 4 burned to death. I didn't know them personally tho.
denverpilot
Tied Down
An increase in hospitalizations isn’t “failing” if they’re not overloaded. Again, moving the goal posts.
Karen’s place is prepped for something close to 2000, never hit 350, and has been down continuously for going on a month.
They never intended to be involved in a long term incarceration of the populace. They wanted a week or two to prepare to treat people. They got ready in one.
Other than a few stories from places that did overload, none of the actual medical professionals want anything to do with silliness like the wording on that graph.
Waiting and open...
denverpilot
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Be real careful with WashPo.
Owned by a guy who the incarceration of the populace made $24 BILLION richer in a single month.
And I’m no huge fan of unions at all, but the reported actions he’s taken during this thing to kill organizing in his warehouses... just blatantly illegal.
Threatening France with closure of all of his warehouses if they made him only sell essential products...
Frankly he’s a sociopath. He’s making Musk look sane. Wild how sick he’s become. The divorce wasn’t THAT expensive. LOL.
Juliet Hotel
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So what does any of that have to do with grocery workers dying? Are you saying that because that particular organization reported it, it therefore didn't happen? Would you like me to spend about 30 seconds with google and find sources of the same information that might be more to your liking?
Where do you see anything about "failing" in that graph?
Kenny Phillips
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People in private cars tend to go to places that are crowded with other people.
RJM62
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Nah. "Crowded" around here means there's one person in front of you at the self-service register at Sam's Club.
I was born, raised, and lived most of my life in New York City before moving to the sticks. My perspective on crowds is pretty good.
Rich
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You must live somewhere important if you have a Sam's Club! But in terms of 'local crowding', even a small town suffers from that occasionally. The township—still ain't a town—in which I used to live had about 4K people in 25 square miles. Of course, the metropolis of Akron was only ten miles away. I think that there are 4K people within a half mile of me, probably more.
RJM62
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Nah. Sam's club is 50 miles away and in another county. Our biggest store is a Price Chopper supermarket. We don't even have a daily newspaper.
My county's population density was 33 people / square mile as of the 2010 census. It's probably a bit lower now. Irene, Sandy, and a general lack of much to do have caused a lot of younger people to move. The county estimates about 7.6 percent population loss since the last census.
Rich