MBDiagMan
Final Approach
if you can’t get it from a surface, why is there so much information regarding the times of viability on various surfaces?
Covid-19 shelter-in-place rules and GA
- Thread starter joycem137
- Start date
if you can’t get it from a surface, why is there so much information regarding the times of viability on various surfaces?
Lowflynjack
En-Route
- Joined
- Oct 28, 2014
- Messages
- 4,309
- Display Name
Display name:
Jack Fleetwood
My company builds computers, medical equipment, servers, etc. We are exempt from Austin's shelter-in-place rule. It started last night at 11:59PM, so before it went into effect, we had to explain everything to the employees. For those of us who are a salary, not a big deal. For the hourly employees, you work or you don't get paid.
Because of the ruling, we can't make anyone work, it has to be voluntary. However, if you choose to be off, you have to immediately start taking PTO. Once your PTO is exhausted, you can choose to take days off unpaid, but you can't file for unemployment because we are still open and you have the option to work. When the shelter-in-place is lifted, you have to report to work immediately or your job is no longer guaranteed. Most people showed up to work.
Stan Cooper
Pattern Altitude
New coronavirus stable for hours on surfaces | National Institutes of Health
Do you really want to bet your life on your belief that if some infected schmuck touched your plane, then you touched it in the same place within hours and put your hand on your face, you can't get it?
Is their reason for preferring to do that because they want to avoid potential exposure to the virus?
Juliet Hotel
En-Route
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2018
- Messages
- 2,634
- Display Name
Display name:
Juliet Hotel
I make choices based on evidence and data. If I'm presented with new information, I'll change my mind.
Juliet Hotel
En-Route
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2018
- Messages
- 2,634
- Display Name
Display name:
Juliet Hotel
Could be, but only they could tell you that. And that's assuming they'd tell you the truth when you ask which IME is kind of a tall assumption. I'm speaking of people in general when I say that, not just my particular employees.
What I can tell you is for most of my drivers, their risk of exposure is pretty low these days. Most shippers and receivers have imposed extremely tight restrictions on the amount of time drivers spend inside their buildilngs or banned drivers from entering all together. Knock on the door, they open it, tell you what dock to use and tell you to wait in your truck. When they're done loading or unloading, they walk your paperwork out and hand it up to you. Almost zero contact with other people is pretty easy to achieve for most truck drivers these days. Truck stops are still a challenge in that respect, but not really more so than the grocery stores that people continue to use. And the driver's I'm talking about are day run guys. They can pack a lunch and they never need to get near a truck stop if they don't want to.
Stan Cooper
Pattern Altitude
That's fine; I just don't think based on current information that you can positively assert, "...you can't get it because some schmuck touched your plane. And you can't get it because some schmuck made you sign a paper he touched."
Juliet Hotel
En-Route
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2018
- Messages
- 2,634
- Display Name
Display name:
Juliet Hotel
Dunno. Because people as asking I suppose?
Juliet Hotel
En-Route
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2018
- Messages
- 2,634
- Display Name
Display name:
Juliet Hotel
You're right, I shouldn't have framed it that way. Take the out the word can't and replace it with very unlikely.
danhagan
En-Route
I'm not a Star Trek fan, but after seeing the image of that lady at the gas pump, your method will help wipe out any Klingons
Texan Pilot
Pre-Flight
- Joined
- Nov 3, 2019
- Messages
- 77
- Display Name
Display name:
PPL ASEL Pilot
I've been fortunate to be able to work from home since 3/16, so i was ecstatic to fly solo on Monday morning. I tried again yesterday morning but the weather didn't accommodate. Last night Harris County's "stay home, work safe" order AKA shelter-in-place order went into effect, so the flight school said no one would be at the office location to check out aircraft, but if you had scheduled flights, you could discuss with the CFI- who have access to the office and plane's keys etc. I have been trying to get my solo long XC done since January, but due to scheduling and mainly weather I've not been able to. I'm scheduled for this Sunday, but was wondering the same as this OP, on whether I can or should attempt, weather permitting. I'm with those who believe that flying solo isn't adding unnecessarily to the spread of this virus, so inclined to keep with my flying schedule if able to.
Kenny Phillips
Final Approach
- Joined
- Jul 29, 2018
- Messages
- 5,634
- Display Name
Display name:
Kenny Phillips
Ya know, I heard the same old ... back when the Y2K bug was gonna take down computers everywhere. Many of us worked feverishly on programming—the issue being that some code was so old it was better to write new programs. I worked 3,000 hours in nine months. We (me and my fellow coders around the world) fixed virtually every important bit of code. And when it was over, all I heard was "no big deal, not worth the time and money we spent", etc. That really, really, ****ed me off. We fixed the effing problem—that's what happened.
And fix this problem, we must. It could have been a non-event (close the borders NOW, isolate recent travellers, etc.) but we got a late start, because of people that won't face facts. Now, we can not act, and intentionally kill millions, or fix it, by closing down. BTW, it's not impossible to 'start up' nearly as quickly as shut down; recessions exist in the minds of the people, stock markets change on a whim or emotion.
I suspect that the government may 'suggest' a moratorium on loans, etc. (I'm old enough to remember the wage and price freeze, one of the most drastic gov't actions ever.)
So everyone will start off essentially two months behind. We can deal with that. I like my in-laws, I don't want them to die due to ignorance.
Ghery
Touchdown! Greaser!
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2005
- Messages
- 10,944
- Location
- Olympia, Washington
- Display Name
Display name:
Ghery Pettit
I got a Division Award (2nd highest personal award) at Intel for the efforts I put in ensuring that our laboratory's equipment was not going to be impacted by Y2K. None was, but we had to make sure. It took a while to check them all, it was a real concern.
Rcmutz
Cleared for Takeoff
Well, today was the first nice day in Ohio since the stay at home order. I did get out to the airport, driving solo, preflighting the airplane solo, flying solo, and putting the plane away and driving home solo. I believe I met the intent of the law. Beautiful day to fly, and I even practiced social distancing by staying at least 1/2 mile away from folks as I flew along.
PS- even used hand sanitizer on the gate keypad and my hands afterwards.
PS- even used hand sanitizer on the gate keypad and my hands afterwards.
Morgan3820
Ejection Handle Pulled
The weather is looking good for me this weekend, so I will probably go up. Maybe take the daughter along.
Warmi
Line Up and Wait
Bet your life
?This thing has mortality rate of around 1% or less for healthy population - Ebola , now that is something to fear with mortality rates of 50-80%.
I just use 100LL. Or rather, my cheapo sampler cup did it for me.
Morgan3820
Ejection Handle Pulled
Don’t forget the Black Death. Now that was a pandemic.Bet your life
This thing has mortality rate of around 1% or less for healthy population - Ebola , now that is something to fear with mortality rates of 50-80%.
UngaWunga
Pattern Altitude
- Joined
- Oct 27, 2014
- Messages
- 2,020
- Display Name
Display name:
UngaWunga
interesting that the first page or two was posters looking for ways to get around the restrictions. Ignoring the restrictions, what's the right thing to do here? The restrictions are put in place because a good sized part of the population wasn't following common sense guidelines on how to not only not get themselves sick, but also not get others sick.
While the virus is still spreading rapidly through the US, before you go out on a pleasure cruise in your plane, think about the possibilities of spreading/catching the virus. Use common sense. Do you need to go flying? If you do go flying, who does it put you in contact with? Or what things outside your control does it put you in contact with? Do you need to use a gas pump? Do you stop for a coffee from the drive through?
link for context: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
While the virus is still spreading rapidly through the US, before you go out on a pleasure cruise in your plane, think about the possibilities of spreading/catching the virus. Use common sense. Do you need to go flying? If you do go flying, who does it put you in contact with? Or what things outside your control does it put you in contact with? Do you need to use a gas pump? Do you stop for a coffee from the drive through?
link for context: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
UngaWunga
Pattern Altitude
- Joined
- Oct 27, 2014
- Messages
- 2,020
- Display Name
Display name:
UngaWunga
Bet your life
This thing has mortality rate of around 1% or less for healthy population - Ebola , now that is something to fear with mortality rates of 50-80%.
Here's a chart I found on the contagion rate (not death rate).... So, you're chance of catching it or spreading it:
I'll see if I can find the data to back that up.
Warmi
Line Up and Wait
Yes, most people use common sense and can take care of their own well-being without external help.
If they think they can go flying safely in this environment then Who are you to question that ?
Warmi
Line Up and Wait
Here's a chart I found on the contagion rate (not death rate).... So, you're chance of catching it or spreading it:
I'll see if I can find the data to back that up.
Ok , so what is your point again?
UngaWunga
Pattern Altitude
- Joined
- Oct 27, 2014
- Messages
- 2,020
- Display Name
Display name:
UngaWunga
chemgeek
En-Route
- Joined
- Dec 5, 2009
- Messages
- 3,103
- Display Name
Display name:
chemgeek
Here's a chart I found on the contagion rate (not death rate).... So, you're chance of catching it or spreading it:
I'll see if I can find the data to back that up.
Numbers look right for published R0 values. Method of spread is slightly different for various diseases. For example, Ebola requires direct contact with bodily fluids, so it is actually difficult to transmit when hygeinic policies are employed. Measles is almost completely airborne, and requires very little viral load to become infected. Basically if you are in the same room as a sick individual, you will get it. Influenza and coronaviruses (including ordinary cold viruses) are spread by airborne droplets containing virus, and secondarily from bodily contact with infected individuals or surfaces.
chemgeek
En-Route
- Joined
- Dec 5, 2009
- Messages
- 3,103
- Display Name
Display name:
chemgeek
Bet your life
This thing has mortality rate of around 1% or less for healthy population - Ebola , now that is something to fear with mortality rates of 50-80%.
The case fatality rate for all ages is around 2%. For over 70 it is 18%. Based on currently available data. Unfortunately, since this is a novel disease for which no one has much immunity, the base of those percentages can be quite large. Ultimately we will find out that the infection fatality rate is much lower--we have idea how much right now except for some small studies--but if you are sick enough to be diagnosed, the statistics are pretty grim for older individuals, and much higher than the comparable CFR for flu for everyone.
Warmi
Line Up and Wait
Ah, the basic principle motivating every two bit wannabe dictator out there - ”they just don’t know what is good for them - so damn frustrating !!”
Morgan3820
Ejection Handle Pulled
I did think about the possibilities of spreading/catching the Virus and determined that the risk was acceptable. Then I got in the plane, thought about the risk of flying and determined that the risk was acceptable. Then I got in my car and grudgingly determined that the risk was acceptable and drove home. I was a little worried about the drive home but did it anyway, I know, reckless, given the 30,000 deaths this year from driving a car. Be careful, it is dangerous out there.
Warmi
Line Up and Wait
It is guaranteed to go down from that level since we have no idea how large is the overall pool of people who are infected and have no or minimal symptoms - it could bring it down just a bit , or if we are talking about hundreds of thousand of people, bring it a lot down.
Until we end up applying widespread testing, we just won’t know.
Rcmutz
Cleared for Takeoff
Yes. No one. No one. No. No.
Morgan3820
Ejection Handle Pulled
Meaning, they don’t think exactly like you?
GrummanBear
Ejection Handle Pulled
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2020
- Messages
- 225
- Display Name
Display name:
X
Do you need to go flying?
Yep.
If you do go flying, who does it put you in contact with?
One guy, healthy, age 24.
Do you need to use a gas pump?
Yep.
Do you stop for a coffee from the drive through?
Yep, the car and plane aren’t the only things needing fuel.
One question you missed: Are you responsible for the food, clothing and shelter of your kids, your mom since your dad died, and your sister and her children since her husband left?
Yep.
It would take a bullet or jail to keep me from doing that last one, and I can’t do it from home.
Great common sense questionnaire.
Stan Cooper
Pattern Altitude
Bet your life
This thing has mortality rate of around 1% or less for healthy population - Ebola , now that is something to fear with mortality rates of 50-80%.
Warmi, please provide a link for your source that Covid-19 has a mortality rate of "around 1% or less for healthy population."
This article published yesterday by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota pegs the overall mortality rate in Italy at 7.2%. The article does suggest that the higher percentage of older people in Italy (23% are 65 years and older) may explain the high morbidity rate there, but in China it's 2.3% if you can believe the Chinese government and that's more than twice the 1% you're quoting.
I'll be 78 in June and am in very good health, but yes, I'm at higher risk because of my age.
In people 80 and older, the mortality rates in China (21.9%) and Italy (20.2%) are pretty close.CIDRAP said:
Last edited:
Warmi
Line Up and Wait
Current rates are all over the place and will only get lower.
Btw. I was not talking about you or anyone in particular ... ultimately everyone has to adjust their risk tolerance threshold to what they are comfortable with.
On average though, for a typical healthy adult this virus is nowhere near “Are you willing to bet your life on it” category.
The statistics on mortality rate... based on people who were sick enough to get tested. It doesn't include all those who had mild or no symptoms and thought it no more than a cold or the flu, so they aren't included in the statistics as survivors.
All this "social distancing" won't prevent anybody from getting the disease (eventually). What it may do (and yes, that's the point) is spread it out so that everybody doesn't get sick at the same time.
It's not going to stop me from flying, solo (my plane is an experimental in phase 1 so it has to be solo anyway), and buying gas at the self service pump.
All this "social distancing" won't prevent anybody from getting the disease (eventually). What it may do (and yes, that's the point) is spread it out so that everybody doesn't get sick at the same time.
It's not going to stop me from flying, solo (my plane is an experimental in phase 1 so it has to be solo anyway), and buying gas at the self service pump.
wilkersk
Pattern Altitude
Those numbers are way old!
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html
If you're just simply dividing today's cumulative deaths by today's cumulative positive cases, you'll get something like 3.2% death rate. But, that is not a legitimate use of the statistic. You've gotta look at the seasoned numbers to be that precise. And that won't happen for probably a couple of years. The best guestimate of a mortality rate, right now, is something between 0.25%–3.0%. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article
Warmi
Line Up and Wait
I guess my basic point here is that we should all do what we are personally comfortable with based on our particular circumstances.
I doubt anyone here would go out and join some kind of hangar part with 20 other people at this time, but on the other hand, telling other people that they are risking their own or their relatives lives by simply going to their local airport for a solo flight is a little bit of an overreaction.
I doubt anyone here would go out and join some kind of hangar part with 20 other people at this time, but on the other hand, telling other people that they are risking their own or their relatives lives by simply going to their local airport for a solo flight is a little bit of an overreaction.
cgrab
Pattern Altitude
The weather has broken for a bit. I'll be up tomorrow morning for an hour or two and to get some fuel. I'll wear my gloves to fuel the plane and I always have wet wipes which I'll probably use as well.
Yeah I think most people get that but we all know that person who thinks this is the end of days and that other person who thinks it's a big hoax.
I did get one very close to home data point on this though from a source I actually find significant. My kid had a regularly scheduled checkup and immunization visit scheduled tomorrow. I'd assumed that they'd have canceled it but we called today and they did not- they said we could cancel if we wanted but immunizations are important and precautions were being taken at the Dr's office. To me if an actual doctor thinks the risk is low enough to keep seeing non-emergency patients that definitely reassures me that there's no need to go nuts over this.
wilkersk
Pattern Altitude
For you guys debating whether or not you should go flying, or whether or not you're likely to "catch" the virus: You do understand that these "shelter in place" orders are not about preventing the spread of the coronavirus right? Its about slowing it down, so that our hospitals are not overwhelmed. Its a bout preserving our healthcare system for the long-haul. Because, its gonna be a long-haul to get through this. My friends (and former coworkers) at the Level-I trauma center I just retired from are telling me that the battle is real. The pictures you see on the news from Italy and Spain will be repeated here. Our only hope is to slow down the spread of the virus and take steps not to put yourself in the position of needing healthcare assets if you can help it.
With as much debate as I've seen here about GA being safer, or not safer than driving a car, I'd think you guys would get this. Its not that you are going to be in a plane crash. We know the chances of that are pretty small. But, its that if you are in a crash, it'll make the news. And, there'll be a lot of non-aviation folks judging all of us based on that crash.
I'm not saying "don't fly during the pandemic." I'm saying if you're in a location that is under a government "shelter-in-place" order, you have to take this into account. If I were not in a "shelter-in-place" area, I'd go fly. But, unfortunately I'm in an area that will be one of the hardest hit. And, I don't want to be "that guy!"
With as much debate as I've seen here about GA being safer, or not safer than driving a car, I'd think you guys would get this. Its not that you are going to be in a plane crash. We know the chances of that are pretty small. But, its that if you are in a crash, it'll make the news. And, there'll be a lot of non-aviation folks judging all of us based on that crash.
I'm not saying "don't fly during the pandemic." I'm saying if you're in a location that is under a government "shelter-in-place" order, you have to take this into account. If I were not in a "shelter-in-place" area, I'd go fly. But, unfortunately I'm in an area that will be one of the hardest hit. And, I don't want to be "that guy!"