Boeing Studies Pilotless Next Jetliner

Anthony said:
That seems to be where it is going. I can understand not wanting to risk human lives, but then what is the motivation for avoiding war? I guess the risk of your "assets" getting damaged would be the risk, plus civilian losses, and property losses, but still.
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It's probably been 15 years ago now, but we were doing some modeling of possible Future Combat Systems the Army was developing and one of the test engineers (who was a retired tank commander, non-com) said to me "If we can go to war without risking soldiers lives, does that make us more or less likely to go to war? And is that good thing?" It was a remarkably perceptive question then and now.

John
 
jsstevens said:
It's probably been 15 years ago now, but we were doing some modeling of possible Future Combat Systems the Army was developing and one of the test engineers (who was a retired tank commander, non-com) said to me "If we can go to war without risking soldiers lives, does that make us more or less likely to go to war? And is that good thing?" It was a remarkably perceptive question then and now.
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I was a contractor for a large defense company. Lot of ex Navy, ex Air Force, ex Army and ex Intel guys. A main focus was essentially air, land, and sea, battlefield situational technology, etc . This was about seven or eight years ago, and that is the direction they were going. It seemed like they were trying to eliminate the human interface, and human error potential/risk, and making the human, a redundant piece.
 
Anthony said:
I was a contractor for a large defense company. Lot of ex Navy, ex Air Force, ex Army and ex Intel guys. A main focus was essentially air, land, and sea, battlefield situational technology, etc . This was about seven or eight years ago, and that is the direction they were going. It seemed like they were trying to eliminate the human interface, and human error potential/risk, and making the human, a redundant piece.
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Oh they definitely are. (I'm still in the business.) And even if the human is in the loop somewhere, they want them out of harms way. That's been our culture of war for more than a century. I've read a great deal of WW 2 stories and both the Japanese (culturally not so surprising) and the Germans were amazed at how much material we would expend to avoid loss of life. I'm just about done with a book titled "Devotion" on a true story from the Korean War where the Navy expended a whole bunch of ammo and gas, no to mention risking lives, to potentially rescue a downed flyer. (Good book, sad story.) There's no way that's in any cold, operational, mathematical sense logical. But it's who we (as Americans) are.

But that still begs the question: If we're not risking lives, are we more likely to go to war? And is that a good thing?

John
 
So you guys think it would be pointless to try and be a career pilot now if we're gonna be flying automated planes in 20 years?
 
jsstevens said:
Oh they definitely are. (I'm still in the business.) And even if the human is in the loop somewhere, they want them out of harms way. That's been our culture of war for more than a century. I've read a great deal of WW 2 stories and both the Japanese (culturally not so surprising) and the Germans were amazed at how much material we would expend to avoid loss of life. I'm just about done with a book titled "Devotion" on a true story from the Korean War where the Navy expended a whole bunch of ammo and gas, no to mention risking lives, to potentially rescue a downed flyer. (Good book, sad story.) There's no way that's in any cold, operational, mathematical sense logical. But it's who we (as Americans) are.

But that still begs the question: If we're not risking lives, are we more likely to go to war? And is that a good thing?
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I ask the same question. I don't have an answer. I know this is thread creep, so sorry, but the company was in bed with the NSA, so if you are in the industry you may know them. The NSA stuff was even scarier. :)

I am glad that we as a culture value our soldier's, sailor's, airmen's, etc lives. However, I never could understand why they continued to use the M4 Sherman, and let so many die on D Day, but that is a question for another thread.
 
Anthony said:
I am glad that we as a culture value our soldier's, sailor's, airmen's, etc lives. However, I never could understand why they continued to use the M4 Sherman, and let so many die on D Day, but that is a question for another thread.
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Simple, we had nothing to replace it. Now why we had nothing to replace it is another question, and should be its own thread, cause it will go in all sorts of tangents.

Tim
 
Rykymus said:
Another thing: If the airlines want to sell the public on the idea of fully automated passenger aircraft, they need to show how it not only makes it safer, but reduces the cost of the customer's ticket. Most people are willing to take extra risk to protect their money.
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That exactly what will take care of the problem. There is a rat race going on to max productivity with minimum labor force in almost all industries ( except may be government ) But they will need consumers with money to consume their production and that is called the market forces.
 
jsstevens said:
If there are so many more poor, they won't be buying stuff. There is a tipping point where everybody goes down.
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In a world where machines make and do things labor costs go to near zero. There is still a cost of the resources and that is why Bezos is going after asteroids and China, Japan and the USA are racing to mine the moon.

So what do people do when the jobs they once did no longer exist? They fill new jobs not yet invented. They pursue new endeavor not yet known. Just as we no longer expend effort to keep horses fed we will soon no longer expend effort to fly commercial airliners.
 
citizen5000 said:
In a world where machines make and do things labor costs go to near zero. There is still a cost of the resources and that is why Bezos is going after asteroids and China, Japan and the USA are racing to mine the moon.

So what do people do when the jobs they once did no longer exist? They fill new jobs not yet invented. They pursue new endeavor not yet known. Just as we no longer expend effort to keep horses fed we will soon no longer expend effort to fly commercial airliners.
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Yup pretty soon there will be no manual labor jobs and all the jobs will be boring desk jobs where you waste away the next 40 years in a cube :(
 
CC268 said:
Yup pretty soon there will be no manual labor jobs and all the jobs will be boring desk jobs where you waste away the next 40 years in a cube :(
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Now that is depressing.
 
CC268 said:
Yup pretty soon there will be no manual labor jobs and all the jobs will be boring desk jobs where you waste away the next 40 years in a cube :(
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Manual labor? Try every job now currently done by humans, including doctors, lawyers, CEOs and all other executives, scientists, writers, pilots, engineers, and even mothers/fathers (people bred from DNA directly).

21 Jobs Already Done By Machines https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/car...-already-replacing-humans/ss-BBv6yiU#image=10
Machines Take All Jobs In 30 years http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/sci...r-most-jobs-within-30-years-experts-warn.html
 
citizen5000 said:
Manual labor? Try every job now currently done by humans, including doctors, lawyers, CEOs and all other executives, scientists, writers, pilots, engineers, and even mothers/fathers (people bred from DNA directly).

21 Jobs Already Done By Machines https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/car...-already-replacing-humans/ss-BBv6yiU#image=10
Machines Take All Jobs In 30 years http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/sci...r-most-jobs-within-30-years-experts-warn.html
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Idk...I don't consider my engineering job "manual" labor but alrighty.
 
SoonerAviator said:
I guess those who are currently "poor" could improve their station in life by picking up a skilled trade . . . like automation equipment repair/programming.
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This is exactly true, until the equipment starts repairing itself.

Cheers
 
Want to become rich..??? Invent an affordable machine that will pick up the doggie poo in the yard.....
 
CC268 said:
So you guys think it would be pointless to try and be a career pilot now if we're gonna be flying automated planes in 20 years?
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It will take decades for complete automation in the cockpit to take the place of pilots. And there will always be market segments that are better served by pilots than automation. They won't pay as much, and there will be fewer jobs, but again, unless you're 4 yrs old and reading this, I don't think you have to worry. That 30 yr prediction thing is a bunch of hooey. Where the hell's my flying car?
 
CC268 said:
Yup pretty soon there will be no manual labor jobs and all the jobs will be boring desk jobs where you waste away the next 40 years in a cube :(
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I don't see the construction trades disappearing by the time I'm in my 80s. Not with a predicted shortfall of housing in the next 20.
 
You old guys sure had it easy...growing up in the "golden" age. Us younger folks are getting screwed over! :stirpot: :raspberry:
 
CC268 said:
You old guys sure had it easy...growing up in the "golden" age. Us younger folks are getting screwed over! :stirpot: :raspberry:
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As have younger folks from the beginning of time. Cain and Abel didn't even get to visit the garden of Eden.
 
CC268 said:
So you guys think it would be pointless to try and be a career pilot now if we're gonna be flying automated planes in 20 years?
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I have 42 years left in the airlines before retirement. I doubt I'll retire doing this job that I love and am so grateful for. It's sad. Do it as a career if you really want to, but try to have something to fall back on (degree, small business, etc).
 
While logically it would make sense that the cargo operators go pilotless / single pilot first there is a big caveat there.

To a large extent those companies buy used former pax aircraft. ABX/ATI right down the road from me are gobbling up 767-300's as fast as they can get them for example. FedEx replaced 727's with 757's, etc. Other than when they need a 777 for the extra long legs they're not buying brand new to save on capital expense.

Any type of single pilot jetliner would have to be a factory new aircraft with at least alot of development and design, and in the cargo world there isn't that big of a market to begin with so the R&D cost can't get spread out well.

You can pay alot of first officers for the money you save buying a 20 year old 767 off of the pax haulers for let's say $10-20m vs buying a brand new 787SPF or whatever it would be called for $100+m. If the ROI was there they'd already be greasing palms in DC to pass a bill.
 
Rykymus said:
Another thing: If the airlines want to sell the public on the idea of fully automated passenger aircraft, they need to show how it not only makes it safer, but reduces the cost of the customer's ticket. Most people are willing to take extra risk to protect their money.
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Yep! all they have to do is advertise: "From New York to California for 99 dollars round trip"

CC268 said:
Pretty soon there will be no jobs left in the universe. It will be all AI and robots. The human race will die off as robots take over and begin the cycle again!!!

Also being a pilot is pretty much the most noble profession in all of the universe...if they get rid of it then we are all doomed
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When one job closes another job will open if you are willing to be flexible over different industries...most people aren't like that. Who is going to troubleshoot all of that Automation?, Install, Build the software for it...etc Anyone can do it with the proper training.

CC268 said:
All the manual labor in this country is being automated...pretty soon all the landscaping jobs will be robots too :(

Honest question...don't you guys think as more and more automation creeps into industries there will be more of a gap in socio-economic classes? It seems like there will be less middle class, more poor and then just uber rich guys who own these automation companies. More and more people are losing their jobs to automation, out sourcing to other countries, etc. Seems scary to me...
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Eventually IMO there will only be the Rich and the Poor...no in between, look around it's happening right now as we speak.

SoonerAviator said:
I guess those who are currently "poor" could improve their station in life by picking up a skilled trade . . . like automation equipment repair/programming.
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That situation is the same right now in this era. Sometimes I'm surprised at how many benefits the "poor" get but regular working class people get very little, next to nothing. It should be the other way around!

CC268 said:
So you guys think it would be pointless to try and be a career pilot now if we're gonna be flying automated planes in 20 years?
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If you love it go for it, it may never happen. No one here has a crystal ball or can predict with certainty where the industries are headed. Just do the best you can right now and adapt as things change!
 
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Todd82 said:
FedEx replaced 727's with 757's, etc. Other than when they need a 777 for the extra long legs they're not buying brand new to save on capital expense.
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FedEx's 757s are converted passenger aircraft, but every 767 and almost every 777 they are flying are brand new off the assembly line. In fact, UPS has to convert 3 passenger 767s because FedEx and the Air Force have the assembly line tied up for the foreseeable future.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...t-used-boeing-767s-with-new-ones-out-of-reach
 
The one thing that never changes is those who predict the future usually blow it. I hope I am included in that description, since my view of the future is decidedly pessimistic.
 
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