Beech Crashes on Railroad tracks

[denverpilot]

You have to remember most of what you hear about comes from the media and the non fatals don't get as much coverage (if they get any at all). Plenty of survivable accidents out there.

Or even just plenty of unplanned off-airport landings. Precautionary or forced.

What goes up, must come down...

Unless it reaches escape velocity...

 

[rocketflyer84]

Listened to the tape. That's painful.

You can only hear the ATC side, but it seems clear that the pilot keeps coming back saying he can't see it and ATC keeps vectoring him to the nonexistent runway and insisting something is there. No question a lot of precious time was wasted as the pilot was trying to find this airport that doesn't exist.

In an emergency over a populated area if ATC is telling you there's a runway nearby that's where you're going to go! Unfortunately not only is there no runway there but it's overall a really nasty place to put a plane down. Reverse things back if the pilot had to ditch there are tons of far better places he could have put it down if the controller wasn't giving him this bad info.

Clearly something went very very wrong here.

 

[noobJohn]

When the DPE said I lost my engine on my PPL check ride I picked out a field that looked perfect but was out near the limit of gliding range. We glided over and did the usual checks and set up for a landing with the expected last minute engine recovery. Afterwards he said don't overlook a perfectly survivable landing spot close by for the perfect one further away. Firstoff you might overestimate your glide distance and secondly, the field that looks perfect from a distance may very well have it's own set of issues. The concept stuck with me, I hope it does if/when I have real engine trouble.

In this particular case I expect ATC was looking at some outdated information on their screen. Why else would they be so insistent that the field was there?

 

[RudyP]

I bet that controller is not getting much sleep lately. What an awful situation...

 

[rocketflyer84]

I bet that controller is not getting much sleep lately. What an awful situation...

Indeed.

I imagine the NTSB is going to really dive into what information is available to controllers regarding various facilities. It's not like that airport closed yesterday, it's long since been bulldozed and re-developed into an office/industrial park.

Obviously one question is if the controller was using info provided to him in a database or radar screen or if he was inserting local knowledge from remembering an airport was once at that location.

 

[RudyP]

I only listened to the liveatc recording once a few days ago but doesn't he say something like "it's officially closed but I know the runway is still there"? Something like that?

 

[rocketflyer84]

I only listened to the liveatc recording once a few days ago but doesn't he say something like "it's officially closed but I know the runway is still there"? Something like that?

He does say it's a closed airport but the controller keeps insisting that it exists and that there's a runway there. He also only mentions that long after the pilot started heading towards that option. At one point he even says something about being lined up with the centerline of the runway.

(See Rudy's transcript below, which is better than mine)

Seems like the pilot keeps going for this closer option and keeps asking for help in finding it. Unfortunately by the time the pilot realized there was actually nothing there it was clearly too late.

 

[RudyP]

RocketFlyer- I just went through the same exercise. Here's what I heard - it's pretty much the same as yours but perhaps a bit more complete.

6C just let me know what you need

6C if you can just keep me in the loop, let me know what’s going on, any assistance you need

6C roger Laguardia airport 12 o’clock and about 12 miles, Kennedy 10 o’clock and about 12 miles, Westchester to the north and Farmingdale to the Southeast. You can go anywhere you like just let me know what you need and what you need to do

6C Roger you coming back to Farmingdale you said?

Yes sir there is a strip about your 10 o’clock and 5 miles, uh Bethpage airport there. Uh if you want to try that one you can do that too.

6C the, uh, Bethpage strip, again 10 O’clock and 4 miles, you’re just about lined up on the extended centerline

12 o’clock and uh 4 miles now, looks like its set up right on the extended centerline for the runway there

Uh, Farmingdale airport is about 3 miles southeast of there if you want to go into Farmingdale

OK

Uh there’s a strip right about your 12 o’clock and 3 miles, the Bethpage strip right there and again Farmingdale is about 10 o’clock and 6

6C the strip is a closed airport. I just know that there is a runway there about 11 o’clock and about a mile and a half now

6C about 10 more degrees to the right but if you need to there is Lantaugh parkway right there, if you see the parkway

Farmindgale is about 11 o’clock and 5 miles

The strip is 1 o’clock and less than a mile. It’s a closed airport I have no information about them unfortunately

6C Radar contact lost 3 miles northwest of Farmingdale airport

 

[rocketflyer84]

RocketFlyer- I just went through the same exercise. Here's what I heard - it's pretty much the same as yours but perhaps a bit more complete.

Concur... I'll remove my attempt

 

[RotorDude]

RocketFlyer- I just went through the same exercise. Here's what I heard - it's pretty much the same as yours but perhaps a bit more complete.

6C just let me know what you need

6C if you can just keep me in the loop, let me know what’s going on, any assistance you need

6C roger Laguardia airport 12 o’clock and about 12 miles, Kennedy 10 o’clock and about 12 miles, Westchester to the north and Farmingdale to the Southeast. You can go anywhere you like just let me know what you need and what you need to do

6C Roger you coming back to Farmingdale you said?

Yes sir there is a strip about your 10 o’clock and 5 miles, uh Bethpage airport there. Uh if you want to try that one you can do that too.

6C the, uh, Bethpage strip, again 10 O’clock and 4 miles, you’re just about lined up on the extended centerline

12 o’clock and uh 4 miles now, looks like its set up right on the extended centerline for the runway there

Uh, Farmingdale airport is about 3 miles southeast of there if you want to go into Farmingdale

OK

Uh there’s a strip right about your 12 o’clock and 3 miles, the Bethpage strip right there and again Farmingdale is about 10 o’clock and 6

6C the strip is a closed airport. I just know that there is a runway there about 11 o’clock and about a mile and a half now

6C about 10 more degrees to the right but if you need to there is Lantaugh parkway right there, if you see the parkway

Farmindgale is about 11 o’clock and 5 miles

The strip is 1 o’clock and less than a mile. It’s a closed airport I have no information about them unfortunately

6C Radar contact lost 3 miles northwest of Farmingdale airport

That's rough. When your engine is out (on a single) you put your complete faith in ATC. A wakeup call to us all.

 

[Anthony]

Wow, that is sad. I remember seeing Bethpage when I'd fly over Long Island on the way to Block Island. The runways were huge.

 

[linuxjim]

Concur also... Removed my attempt.

 

[acrophile]

In this particular case I expect ATC was looking at some outdated information on their screen. Why else would they be so insistent that the field was there?

It could just have been something he remembered hearing somewhere sometime. Many people don't routinely assess the origin or reliability of their beliefs.

I have a 2008 NY TAC that depicts a closed airport at Bethpage. The current TAC does not. I don't know when the change occurred.

 

[retailguy]

Since 2000 74 people have died in the U.S. Due to terrorism. 150,000 by guns during same period.

Wow, I sure thought the death toll on 9/11 was a lot higher than 74...

9/11 was "workplace violence" in Jimmy's world......

 

[Rcmutz]

That's rough. When your engine is out (on a single) you put your complete faith in ATC. A wakeup call to us all.

Current GPS database and NEAREST function.

 

[RotorDude]

Current GPS database and NEAREST function.

Problem is, NEAREST may not give you a nearby strip that's not an official airport but perfectly safe, which a knowledgeable local controller might. And the next official airport may be beyond gliding range. So what do you do?

 

[acrophile]

Problem is, NEAREST may not give you a nearby strip that's not an official airport but perfectly safe, which a knowledgeable local controller might. And the next official airport may be beyond gliding range. So what do you do?

In a situation like this, with several minutes of glide time available, you could check your chart and see if a closed airport is depicted. In this case, there's none. That should have been a warning.

 

[Fearless Tower]

Problem is, NEAREST may not give you a nearby strip that's not an official airport but perfectly safe, which a knowledgeable local controller might. And the next official airport may be beyond gliding range. So what do you do?

You keep flying the airplane and put it down in the best place you can while still maintaining control as long as you can. Which this guy probably did.

I'm sure the controller feels like crap, but I don't think you can necessarily blame the controller for the crash.

A controller is trained to give you the nearest airports and if they have local knowledge they may provide potential areas to put it down, but the controller doesn't know your gliding range/how far you can really make it. You may put faith in the controller, but you are still PIC.

 

[rocketflyer84]

Problem is, NEAREST may not give you a nearby strip that's not an official airport but perfectly safe, which a knowledgeable local controller might. And the next official airport may be beyond gliding range. So what do you do?

On the first pass the controller read out the closest airports in each direction so the pilot was aware of what was out there.

From the recording it seems likely the pilot likely asked if there was anything else closer and that's when the airport that doesn't exist was mentioned as another option. From that point forward it seems like the pilot has decided to go towards this option.

This is just all a very unfortunately course of events. In the heat of an emergency if you're over a populated area and ATC is telling you that there's a perfectly good runway available nearby I think most pilots would likely start heading towards that option. When ATC starts talking about being lined up with the extended centerline of the runway and such there's no indication that this might not be a good place to land... or in this case that in fact there's no airport at all and in fact ATC is vectoring you towards an industrial park full of buildings with no good place to land.

In the end, the pilot put it down on the railroad tracks right next to where this runway once was. At that point it was likely the only viable option. If he wasn't being guided to this spot then he likely could have glided to other more open areas and put it down in a much better spot and had a better chance at surviving.

I don't think anyone is "blaming" ATC, but it clearly reveals some serious gaps in terms of information they have available and also highlights that one can't really trust the information being given... which is really bad in an emergency as the PIC is really relying on ATC to help out with such info in the heat of the moment.

We're not talking about the controller saying he knows of a nice field somewhere behind his friend's farm that he knows of from local knowledge... he's telling the pilot there's a runway, that he's lined up with the runway's extended centerline and such... Yes the PIC is the PIC, but generally I think the PIC would like to be able to trust that ATC knows if a runway exists or not.

 

[RyanShort1]

If the controller was saying that he was lined up with the centerline, doesn't that directly imply that there was a depiction of the runway / airport on the controller's radar screen at least as a reporting point or something? That would imply that the ATC database was / is inaccurate and that controller might have been presuming the runway's continued existence based on that.

 

[Fearless Tower]

If the controller was saying that he was lined up with the centerline, doesn't that directly imply that there was a depiction of the runway / airport on the controller's radar screen at least as a reporting point or something? That would imply that the ATC database was / is inaccurate and that controller might have been presuming the runway's continued existence based on that.

That is a good point.

 

[mtuomi]

He also does a 180 before heading to the non-existing "runway" at Bethpage.
Completely survivable grass underneath/right in front of him. Sad

 

[acrophile]

If the controller was saying that he was lined up with the centerline, doesn't that directly imply that there was a depiction of the runway / airport on the controller's radar screen at least as a reporting point or something?

Could be. Or the controller might just have remembered where the runway used to be. (Does anyone here have access to the ATC data?)

I'd be more inclined to trust the TAC and sectional than a human controller's attestation, because the charts are viewed by a large number of people who can flag errors. (I've found the FAA to be promptly responsive when I've reported minor chart discrepancies.)

Even if the ATC database was outdated, the ATC staff could have taken the initiative to periodically check alleged closed-but-extant airports against other obvious sources--especially FAA charts and Google Maps. There are at most a handful of such airports in any controller's purview, and checking them even once a year would have sufficed to prevent this accident. (The pilot cross-checking the TAC would have helped, too.)

 

[spdracer888]

Here are two historical images of the same area from Google Earth:

top one was from November of 2006
bottom one was from October of 2008

There hans't been a visible runway there since 2008.

I can't believe the controller (probably from NY TRACON that's located about 6 miles from the site) didn't know this.

 

[jspilot]

I fly out of a Long Island Airport so I'm pretty familiar with the area. Anything West of Islip airport is extremely congested. No real open fields. The best option is a golf course because seriously the highways are always crowded with cars.

I'm stunned by ATC in this event. The guys and gals around here are amazingly good. It seems like they got in the way here more than helped.

Very very sad.

 

[deonb]

RocketFlyer-
<snip>
6C about 10 more degrees to the right but if you need to there is Lantaugh parkway right there, if you see the parkway..

It's Wantagh parkway, not Lantaugh

 

[rocketflyer84]

The NTSB's preliminary report talks a lot about the ATC issue... more than they talked about the fact that the airplane was having mechanical issues. They're clearly going to dig deep and find out how it came to be that ATC was guiding the pilot in this way. I look forward to their final report to see what the heck happened here.

 

[RudyP]

Prelim NTSB report

NTSB Identification: ERA15FA313
Nonscheduled 14 CFR Part 135: Air Taxi & Commuter
Accident occurred Sunday, August 16, 2015 in Hicksville, NY
Aircraft: BEECH C35, registration: N5946C
Injuries: 1 Fatal, 1 Serious.
This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed. NTSB investigators either traveled in support of this investigation or conducted a significant amount of investigative work without any travel, and used data obtained from various sources to prepare this aircraft accident report.

On August 16, 2015, about 0747 eastern daylight time, a Beech C35, N5946C, collided with a railroad grade crossing cantilever arm and terrain during a forced landing at Hicksville, New York. The commercial pilot was fatally injured and one passenger received serious injuries. The airplane was destroyed by impact forces and a post-crash fire. The airplane was registered to and operated by the pilot under the provisions of Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 135 as an on demand air taxi flight. Day, visual meteorological conditions prevailed, and visual flight rules flight plan was filed. The flight originated from Westhampton Beach, New York (FOK) and was destined for Morristown, New Jersey (MMU).

According to preliminary air traffic control (ATC) voice communication and radar position information obtained from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the airplane was flying at 6,500 feet above mean sea level on an easterly heading, about 8 nautical miles (nm) northwest of Republic Airport, Farmingdale, New York (FRG). The pilot reported to ATC that he was "having a little bit of a problem" and may need to return to FRG. The pilot then reported that he would have to "take it down…" The controller provided the relative locations of LaGuardia and JFK Airports, and stated that Westchester Airport was to the north and FRG was to the southeast. The pilot responded that FRG was the closest airport to his location. The pilot then indicated that he may not make FRG. The controller then provided information on "Bethpage strip" and informed the pilot that the airport was closed; however, there was a runway there. The airplane was then observed tracking toward the Bethpage area while descending. The next several transmissions between the controller and pilot revealed that the pilot was unable to see the runway while the controller continued to provide heading and distance to the Bethpage runway. Radar and radio contact were eventually lost and emergency responders were notified of the accident.

The passenger was interviewed after the accident. He reported that the flight was in cruise when he heard a loud "pop" sound, with a flicker of light from the engine area, followed by an "oil smell." The engine then began to "sputter" and lose power. The pilot attempted to restart the engine without success.

The pilot, age 59, held a commercial pilot certificate with airplane single engine, multi-engine, and instrument airplane ratings. He reported 3,300 hours total flight time on his most recent application for an FAA second-class medical certificate, dated December 22, 2014. Records provided by the FAA revealed that he completed a Part 135.299 line check (check ride) on June 18, 2015.

The main wreckage was found inverted and burned, on the railroad tracks for the Long Island Rail Road. The wreckage debris field was about 100 ft in length and about 20 ft wide, oriented on a heading of about 150 degrees. All major structural components of the aircraft were found within the confines of the debris field. The propeller assembly separated from the engine during the accident sequence. The right wing was found under the grade crossing cantilever arm, which separated from its mount structure during the initial impact. The engine was retained for further examination.

An examination of the area of the former Bethpage Airport revealed that industrial buildings occupied the former runway surface area. The accident site was located about 0.25 nm northwest of the former runway's approach end.

 

[RudyP]

NBC article link

An air traffic controller directed a pilot having trouble with his plane to a landing strip that no longer existed at a closed airport before the aircraft crashed at a Long Island Rail Road crossing, killing him, according to a preliminary accident report released Monday.

The pilot, Joseph Milo, 59, of Westhampton Beach, was killed Aug. 16 when his single-engine aircraft hit the tracks in Hicksville. A passenger was injured.

The Federal Aviation Administration said the Hawker Beechcraft BE35 had departed from Westhampton Beach, on eastern Long Island, and was headed to Morristown, New Jersey.

The plane crashed at a railway crossing between the Hicksville and Bethpage stations of the Long Island Rail Road at around 7:45 a.m. The crash happened about 8 nautical miles northwest of Republic Airport in Farmingdale, which was the closest airport at the time, according to the report issued by the National Transportation Safety Board.

The report indicates the pilot told an air traffic controller he was "having a little bit of a problem" and would have to "take it down," according to the report.
The controller gave the pilot information about the location of Republic, LaGuardia and Kennedy airports as well as Westchester Airport to the north. The pilot indicated he would attempt to get to Republic but was concerned he might not make it there.

The report says the controller then provided information about a "Bethpage strip," the site of a former airport associated with defense contractor Northrup Grumman. The controller told the pilot the airport was closed but said there was a runway there.

"The next several transmissions between the controller and pilot revealed that the pilot was unable to see the runway" while the controller continued to provide information about its location. "Radar and radio contact were eventually lost and emergency responders were notified of the accident," the NTSB said.

The investigation found that industrial buildings now occupy the former runway; it is not clear exactly when it closed. Northrup acquired Grumman, which was founded on Long Island, in 1994. For many decades in the last century, Grumman manufactured and tested various aircraft, including fighter jets, at its Bethpage facility. It also built the lunar module which first brought man to the moon in 1969.

The former runway is about a quarter-mile from the crash site, the NTSB said.

A spokeswoman for the Federal Aviation Administration, which is responsible for air traffic controllers, declined to comment, citing the ongoing investigation.
A person answering the telephone at a restaurant owned by Milo in Westhampton Beach said no one was immediately available to comment.

 

[silver-eagle]

I have a hard time blaming the controller. Based on the sat map on google, the pilot passed up a race track, and a couple of ball fields on the way to bethpage. Besides, the controller wasn't in the plane and didn't know what the pilot could see.
After all, we bit cheaper when ATC tells us how to fly the plane. Why are we now crucifying them. It's up to us to know everything about the flight as is possible. Having an out if something happens is part of it.

 

[N801BH]

I have a hard time blaming the controller. Based on the sat map on google, the pilot passed up a race track, and a couple of ball fields on the way to bethpage. Besides, the controller wasn't in the plane and didn't know what the pilot could see.
After all, we bit cheaper when ATC tells us how to fly the plane. Why are we now crucifying them. It's up to us to know everything about the flight as is possible. Having an out if something happens is part of it.

Agreed.... BUT... In the heat of the moment I can see the pilot trusting ATC for a vector to save his ass....

 

[Vf6cruiser]

The guy had a better cushion than most when the engine conked, 6,500ft gives you a nice 5-7+ mile circle to find a spot. He turned control of the plane over to ATC and his number was just up........a sober lesson for everybody here, you are looking out the window and you need to fly it.

 

[DJTorrente]

I have a hard time blaming the controller. Based on the sat map on google, the pilot passed up a race track, and a couple of ball fields on the way to bethpage. Besides, the controller wasn't in the plane and didn't know what the pilot could see.
After all, we bit cheaper when ATC tells us how to fly the plane. Why are we now crucifying them. It's up to us to know everything about the flight as is possible. Having an out if something happens is part of it.

Purely speculation on my part, but I got the impression that the controller on the air had someone talking in his ear about Bethpage. He initially gave the pilot vectors to LGA, JFK and FRG; Bethpage was only mentioned later in the sequence.

It really doesn't matter which person on the ATC side of the mic offered up the information. I don't believe that the controller would have offered up information he knew to be obsolete even if it hadn't been told to him. I also don't believe that ATC should be responsible for scouting out abandoned runways for possible use in an emergency. If pilot just barely missed making the grounds of Bethpage airport he would not have made it to FRG in any event. However he got there, being low and out of options he was most likely lined up to land on the rail road tracks, the best remaining alternative.

I am troubled by the fact that this pilot died less than 1/4 mile from a runway that no longer exists after ATC guided him there and repeatedly assured him was there. He clearly would have been better off taking his chances with one of the many golf courses to the northeast rather than the direction he went the southeast.

 

[acrophile]

I have a hard time blaming the controller. Based on the sat map on google, the pilot passed up a race track, and a couple of ball fields on the way to bethpage. Besides, the controller wasn't in the plane and didn't know what the pilot could see.
After all, we bit cheaper when ATC tells us how to fly the plane. Why are we now crucifying them[?]

The pilot passed those sites in the belief that a much safer site was within range. If ATC had been right about the closed runway, that belief would have been reasonable.

But as mentioned earlier in this thread, the pilot did have time to consult a TAC and observe that no airport, closed or otherwise, was depicted. He then could at least have asked ATC how sure they were about it.

So both the pilot and the controller committed errors. And depending on what the controller's information sources were saying (was years-obsolete information being presented to him?), other ATC staff may also have done so.

But I don't see any effort to "crucify" the controller. It's important to know the various factors that cause an accident, including any errors by any parties involved, however understandable those errors may or may not be.

 

[mtuomi]

The pilot would have had time to consult the TAC, but there is a big chance he didn't have it open right there. IFR equip Beech, familiar route, doubt it.

When I go to bed tonight, I'll close my eyes and repeat 5 times:

"In case of an engine failure, I will not fly over a landable field trying to make it to an uncertain spot".

This really sucks. Completely avoidable

 

[jspilot]

I think part of the lesson I'm taking away from this is to find a good spot to land and stay with that spot through to landing. The pilot lost his engine and based on what was described( loud bang, followed by oil smell, followed by loss of power) it should have been clear that he was in serious trouble. I'll land at an airport if there is one right under me or if I can get some power from the engine. In his case, he should have gone for a field. It seems to me like the pilot made the error of becoming fixated on getting to an airport. He was not a jet, and therefore, should have taken advantage of one of the biggest advantages smaller planes have and landed in a field. There are literally, 10-15 golf courses in that area perfectly capable of handeling this kind of awful scenario.

But it is entirely possible, in fact, likely that many of us would have done the same thing, believing the controller and trusting that an airport was near by. We would likely do this because the saturation of the tasks, plus the fear of impending devastation an off airport landing would create all could be relieved by the saftey of a successful landing on an airport would provide. We may want to make it to an airport because we all have landed on one before and given the possibility of getting to one, the temptation is great to make it. However, the real lesson here is don't fly over survivable landing sites for the potential of finding an airport. Unfortunately, he paid far to great a price for his wrong choice.

In some ways, this crash is like the "miracle on the Hudson." Had Sully been tempted to glide to an airport, he would be dead today, plus many others and likely many on the ground. He knew he was screwed and found a spot to land.

 

[Sundancer]

Two pros did the best they could, and if neither was perfect, they were in there trying their best for a good outcome. I hope the controller isn't kicking himself, 'cause he did all he could. And the pilot got surprised-slapped, and then got right to work, and flew it well enough to limit the fatalities.

Our airplanes are light-weight, with a lot of surface area per pound, low wing loading, and are mostly single-engine. So it's gonna happen, and sometimes perfect performance is required to just walk away. And sometimes that's not gonna be enough.

I have a hazy memory of someone putting a GA airplane on a roof, in an industrial park? Maybe the LA area? Few decades back? Huge building, and he used it like a giant aircraft carrier. Can't remember the outcome, though I think he survived. I've kept it in mind when flying over a few places.

 

[acrophile]

The pilot would have had time to consult the TAC, but there is a big chance he didn't have it open right there. IFR equip Beech, familiar route, doubt it.

If your speculation is correct, that would itself be a significant error. We should always be prepared for a sudden engine failure. That preparation includes awareness of potential landing sites, and quick access to any resources that may be needed in identifying such sites.

 

[rocketflyer84]

Key lesson here is clearly that one must visually pick the best place to land and then stick with it unless you are 100% sure you can make something new you see later.

That said, in an emergency one is using all available resources including ATC to help. That's drilled into most training. Find your spot and run through your checklist, but also talk to ATC and let them help you if they can.

Clearly the PIC is the PiC but having ATC constantly feeding really bad info into your ear under such a scenario clearly won't help. The sad thing here is based on where the plane crashed he would have made the runway had one actually existed there. So had the info ATC was providing been correct, the pilots choice to go for that runway (in an area with not a lot of great outs) would have ended probably just fine.

I look forward to the final NTSB report to hear where this bogus info ATC was handing out came from.

 

[Sundancer]

Re: Beech Crashes on Railroad track

If your speculation is correct, that would itself be a significant error. We should always be prepared for a sudden engine failure. That preparation includes awareness of potential landing sites, and quick access to any resources that may be needed in identifying such sites.

With respect, while I've always heard that (have a forced landing site picked out, constantly), I think it's pointless advice. It isn't practical, it isn't how our brains work, and it'd take a lot of brain cycles away from useful pursuits.

I've settled on hitting NRST, turning to that heading, and then looking for the best spot aong the way, maybe 30 degrees either side. For most fixed gear GA singles of a certain age, just about any flat spot of driveway length will be enough to let you walk away. Spot landing ability assumed. . .

I might be more inclined to pay close attention down low; once up above 5 or 6K, you're just guessing anyway.

Just my opinion, I could be wrong. . .