Babar Suleman and his son...

[Henning]

So with the facts that Arcturas put up that they ditched a mile off shore what kind of altitude would they have been at?

Sea level, I doubt they made 100' if they only made a mile.

 

[Alexb2000]

Right now we have absolutely zero indication that time of day had anything to do with it.

Look, a trip like this has risks no matter which way you slice it. All I am saying is that I can see his logic of choosing a night departure over a night arrival.

I am going to assume fuel is going to be close on a leg that long. If the winds are stronger than expected, or they have to divert, or ??? they would likely run out of fuel. IMO these are the highest risk factors on a long over water and may mean ditching. In which case I would MUCH rather ditch in the day vs. night. Dark night a 1,000 times so.

 

[Henning]

I am going to assume fuel is going to be close on a leg that long. If the winds are stronger than expected, or they have to divert, or ??? they would likely run out of fuel. IMO these are the highest risk factors on a long over water and may mean ditching. In which case I would MUCH rather ditch in the day vs. night. Dark night a 1,000 times so.

If the winds were stronger than expected, from a favorable direction, would likely be why they took off.

 

[vince]

Right now we have absolutely zero indication that time of day had anything to do with it.

Look, a trip like this has risks no matter which way you slice it. All I am saying is that I can see his logic of choosing a night departure over a night arrival.

So... you're agreeing with decisions made by someone who is, um, dead maybe because of those decisions.




You go ahead and take off into a black hole with an overweight plane. I will choose another path in life.

 

[Henning]

So... you're agreeing with decisions made by someone who is, um, dead maybe because of those decisions.




You go ahead and take off into a black hole with an overweight plane. I will choose another path in life.

Black hole over the ocean? No worries, I can fly out on instruments just fine, besides if he had some moon light, it goes a long way at sea. That it was night is likely of little relevance anyway, but you never know. Personally I'm six of one, half a dozen of the other on taking off or landing in the dark.

 

[vince]

Black hole over the ocean?

No not just a black hole over the ocean. I said a black hole over the ocean with an overweight plane. History has taught us that even highly experienced pilots can get confused when stalling at night (look at AF 447 and Colgan Air 3407). In both those cases if they had been in day time VFR conditions they probably wouldn't have done the idiotic actions they took.

The sensible choice is: Overweight + daylight flying followed by low weight + nighttime flying. Distribute the risks.

I'm just a low time VFR pilot and I feel I have to spell out the obvious.

 

[Henning]

No not just a black hole over the ocean. I said a black hole over the ocean with an overweight plane. History has taught us that even highly experienced pilots can get confused when stalling at night (look at AF 447 and Colgan Air 3407). In both those cases if they had been in day time VFR conditions they probably wouldn't have done the idiotic actions they took.

The sensible choice is: Overweight + daylight flying followed by low weight + nighttime flying. Distribute the risks.

I'm just a low time VFR pilot and I feel I have to spell out the obvious.

That's because what you think of as an obvious one topic decision is not really so much so.

 

[vince]

That's because what you think of as an obvious one topic decision is not really so much so.

Well that's nice but just stating that without any kind of back up or argument is kind of useless.

So tell me, for someone of normal skill (not yourself or Fearless Tower, think Vince of the cornfields), tell me how you would rank the degree of risk?

Underweight plane flown during the day.
Overweight plane flown at night.

Underweight plane flown at night
Overweight plane flown during the day

 

[Henning]

Because when you fly legs like this the most critical thing is weather; particularly winds, and when you are around the ITCZ you fly when the winds say so because they are very fluky, not consistent in direction like in the Trade Winds or Horse Latitudes, then there are also the storm cell development to consider. While navigational factors are less than they once were, they are not irrelevant either.

 

[steingar]

Well that's nice but just stating that without any kind of back up or argument is kind of useless.

So tell me, for someone of normal skill (not yourself or Fearless Tower, think Vince of the cornfields), tell me how you would rank the degree of risk?

Underweight plane flown during the day.
Overweight plane flown at night.

Underweight plane flown at night
Overweight plane flown during the day

There are other things to consider. Perhaps the winds were more favorable and forecast to grow less so. Perhaps the wx was forecast to grow worse.

I had thought the take off was due to time constraints, in which case it would be a horrible decision. But I agree with the other posters, I can't really see an obvious choice between departing at night or in daylight if part of the trip would be in darkness. Each presents its own hazards.

And it could be entirely academic. They could easily have suffered an engine malfunction and had to ditch from low altitude.

 

[vince]

The weather doesn't change much there this time of year. Also the ITCZ is nowhere near this latitude.

I keep seeing brief flashes or images of a green elephant wearing clothes and a crown. Bizarre.

 

[Alexb2000]

Because when you fly legs like this the most critical thing is weather; particularly winds, and when you are around the ITCZ you fly when the winds say so because they are very fluky, not consistent in direction like in the Trade Winds or Horse Latitudes, then there are also the storm cell development to consider. While navigational factors are less than they once were, they are not irrelevant either.

Here is the Pago Pago weather for the month. Interesting that the wind swung around from the North to the South the next day.

http://i.wund.com/auto/iphone/history/airport/NSTU/2014/7/20/MonthlyHistory.html

 

[Jimmy cooper]

I have not taken off at gross at night, one of my partners prefers to do it for his trips to the west coast. Should I tell him not to do it as someone on the internets told me that this is too dangerous ?

Lots of times it just comes down to experience. How much time the person has in the air, at night, instruments etc. if your partner is low time he may do himself in.

 

[weilke]

Lots of times it just comes down to experience. How much time the person has in the air, at night, instruments etc. if your partner is low time he may do himself in.

So you wouldn't do an IMC takeoff into a low overcast at gross either ?

My first flight in that Bo was into 300ft &1mile on a december morning with him Iin the right seat. He is a CFI and commercial pilot, who uses the plane to its full capacity.

 

[BG305]

So this was a really tough take off for a newly minted IFR pilot to handle. That is if he was PIC trying to achieve youngest PP to go around the world.

 

[dans2992]

I'm thinking Dad/CFI would be watching every move though.

 

[sourdough44]

If we take Eddies information above they were at the end of runway 23 at 97 MSL when the last ping occurred. I don't know how accurate those devices are for altitude, but 23 is 10,000' long at an elevation of 32'. Seems like a very slow rate of climb. Then a left turn out to the SW over the water that couldn't have been done very high. Not much margin for error.
http://155.178.201.160/d-tpp/1408/05018AD.PDF

METAR at time of departure shows winds 340 at 15 gusting to 26. It would appear these guys were taking off in a heavy airplane with a slightly quartering tailwind. Not a problem in a normally laden plane. A left turn would have given them a gusty tailwind, low, heavy and slow.

Maybe wind shear, or a downdraft they couldn't climb out of.

This doesn't sit well with me. It's not just the reported wind direction for the take-off roll, but then if coupled with a left turn-out. I realize you enter a 'sea of air' once airborne, but at the very least your angle of climb really takes a hit.

Gusting to 26 is pretty good amount, then throw in the other factors, mainly heavy, at night, newer pilot. There's not a whole lot of time to be swapping control of the aircraft.

Just a few comments, possibly totally off what actually happened.

 

[Fearless Tower]

This doesn't sit well with me. It's not just the reported wind direction for the take-off roll, but then if coupled with a left turn-out. I realize you enter a 'sea of air' once airborne, but at the very least your angle of climb really takes a hit.



Gusting to 26 is pretty good amount, then throw in the other factors, mainly heavy, at night, newer pilot. There's not a whole lot of time to be swapping control of the aircraft.



Just a few comments, possibly totally off what actually happened.

That is the part that has me scratching my head, and I am sure others as well. Based on Eddie's last contact with them where they talked about possibly staying two or more days, I wonder what the driving factor was for them to take off then.

 

[Henning]

I kinda doubt dad had son take this one, but you never know. If he had done the ones prior and the had just flown around the world though, I wouldn't rate him as incompetent though just on low time.

 

[Henning]

While a tragedy and tough on those left, at least they were living life for maximum value when they died. Death is always tough from this side, but inevitable.

 

[Chip Sylverne]

This doesn't sit well with me. It's not just the reported wind direction for the take-off roll, but then if coupled with a left turn-out. I realize you enter a 'sea of air' once airborne, but at the very least your angle of climb really takes a hit.

Gusting to 26 is pretty good amount, then throw in the other factors, mainly heavy, at night, newer pilot. There's not a whole lot of time to be swapping control of the aircraft.

Just a few comments, possibly totally off what actually happened.

If you look at a map of the island, because of the location of the airport they had no choice but a left turn. Lousy climb performance coupled with terrain directly ahead at night when you can't see. Rapidly rising terrain to the right precluding a turn directly on course and into the wind. They would have had to turn south for at least a short period before clearing a point of land to round the island and get on course.

 

[Guest1]

Can some one please elaborate why were they taking off in the SW direction. Why didn't they take off in the NE direction. If you see the map of Pago Pago airport, you can see that the NE direction takes them towards the sea and away from the mountains. Any one have any reason for that?

 

[Dav8or]

That is the part that has me scratching my head, and I am sure others as well. Based on Eddie's last contact with them where they talked about possibly staying two or more days, I wonder what the driving factor was for them to take off then.

I think it might have been Henning that came up with the most probable reason. They were closely watching the weather reports and saw that there were favorable winds for catching a tailwind to Hawaii. They just had to punch through the gusty, turbulent surface winds first...

 

[Dav8or]

Can some one please elaborate why were they taking off in the SW direction. Why didn't they take off in the NE direction. If you see the map of Pago Pago airport, you can see that the NE direction takes them towards the sea and away from the mountains. Any one have any reason for that?

I can't elaborate, but I can guess just like everyone else. From the details we have here, it would appear that they took off heading away from their desired course, towards hills and with a tailwind component. I am assuming they used runway 23 because it is longest and Eddie said they were headed a SW runway heading. Their departure sounds all wrong.

I have to assume the reasoning was due to localized surface information. My guess is the winds being turbulent and unstable, were perhaps wildly variable in direction as well. Even though the METAR was reporting 340, I'm guessing the windsock they could see out the window was telling them a different story and they chose a more difficult departure in the desire to climb faster. I know Eddie indicates otherwise, but this mysterious departure kind of has the smell of got to get thereitis to me.

 

[Guest1]

I can't elaborate, but I can guess just like everyone else. From the details we have here, it would appear that they took off heading away from their desired course, towards hills and with a tailwind component. I am assuming they used runway 23 because it is longest and Eddie said they were headed a SW runway heading. Their departure sounds all wrong.

I have to assume the reasoning was due to localized surface information. My guess is the winds being turbulent and unstable, were perhaps wildly variable in direction as well. Even though the METAR was reporting 340, I'm guessing the windsock they could see out the window was telling them a different story and they chose a more difficult departure in the desire to climb faster. I know Eddie indicates otherwise, but this mysterious departure kind of has the smell of got to get thereitis to me.

Thanks for the explanation. Another thing that bothers me is this; The eye witness Bert Thompson of Matuu saw the plane simply plunge in the sea. Now Matuu is North East of runway 23 and the airport. Reports so far suggest that the plane went down 1 mile from the end of the runway in SE direction. On google earth if you draw a line using the ruler tool and keep the 1 mile radius in mind while also considering the bearing of Matuu, it seems that the plane turned left (most probably very sharply) and then flew almost parallel to the runway (and airport). That's the only way they could have reached the spot being described by the witness and reports. Now this is bothering me, since they could have reached the same spot by taking off in the NE direction using runway23. I am a layman so my question is that even if they considered a tailwind why did they have to take off that way and then make a sharp turn to reach back to the start of the runway they just took off from. Is this normal?

 

[Fearless Tower]

Thanks for the explanation. Another thing that bothers me is this; The eye witness Bert Thompson of Matuu saw the plane simply plunge in the sea. Now Matuu is North East of runway 23 and the airport. Reports so far suggest that the plane went down 1 mile from the end of the runway in SE direction. On google earth if you draw a line using the ruler tool and keep the 1 mile radius in mind while also considering the bearing of Matuu, it seems that the plane turned left (most probably very sharply) and then flew almost parallel to the runway (and airport). That's the only way they could have reached the spot being described by the witness and reports. Now this is bothering me, since they could have reached the same spot by taking off in the NE direction using runway23. I am a layman so my question is that even if they considered a tailwind why did they have to take off that way and then make a sharp turn to reach back to the start of the runway they just took off from. Is this normal?

I wouldn't try to draw too much from initial eye-witness statements, especially at night.

 

[Aviator1945]

Dear aviators, after reading the comments on here, good and bad, I felt it neccessary to sign up for PoA to be able to put right the facts to stop the continued specualtions I am seeing everywhere; some so called facts fuelled by the world's media and the rest by speculation.
Why am I privvy to these facts?
I am the last person (besides the people at the airport on Pago Pago) who Babar talked to and was on shift for his departure. I am the owner of the flight support company who were tasked with supporting the flight around the world...obtaining permits, clearances, handling, fuel and hotac.
I worked with Babar personally on the planning since late last summer and if you had seen the original routeing he proposed back then compared to the one he eventually took then you will see that many changes had to be made for one reason or another.
We had advised Babar to take the longer but safer route (more places to find avgas) through Japan and Alaska but the previous successes of other circumnavigators like CarolAnn Garratt and Matt Guthmiller did give Babar the incentive to go with the Pacific island route.
One of the common themes in this thread is about the range to Hawaii and the thought that he was also going to make a landing in Kiribati.
This is the truth of the matter...
Kiribati was always on the planned route. But right up to their departure from Noumea there was no evidence of avgas being available at Christmas Island. The authorities at PLCH need arresting because for 3 weeks continuous phone calls and countless emails, not one person thought it decent enough to reply or pick up the phone.
The only information we had to go on was from passing aviators who had visited the island recently (and that is within the last 6 months) all of whom used JetA1 but either said 'no avgas there' or 'I think we saw some barells of avgas on site'...not the best info to decide on whether a flight should make a stop there or not.
We did find avgas at Tarawa, another Kiribati island but by the time we received this information the guys had flown to Pago Pago and this made a flight to Tarawa unfeasible.
For two days we discussed weather and range whilst still waiting for contact to be made with PLCH. I personally found the pilots ideal accomodation and they were thoroughly enjoying their stay on Pago Pago. In fact, 12 hours before departure, Babar told me that he thought they would be stuck there for another 2 - 3 days. This was after checking weather forecasts and fuel - range computations.
Another conversation was about the need to shed weight; they had accumulated a fair weight of souvenirs; and I expect this happened with maybe the souvenirs being packaged up and sent by carrier to their home. But this is speculation...but the idea of shedding weight was in their thoughts.
The aircraft had performed faultlessly for the whole of the flight so far and routine maintenance and hours checks were made by FAA authorised engineers along the way.
In answer to a previous comment...they had made the flight from Goose Bay to Reykjavik at near max weight and yes, they do have the documentation for an overweight ferry.
So why would they have a nightime departure?
This had already been discussed between us and one person had the right answer...it was so they would arrive in Hawaii during daylight hours, and also be abeam Kiribati in daylight if they needed to divert.
There was no 'suspicion' in the night time departure.
What does mystify us is that they actually departed. My last conversation, as I said, was about the fact they may stay in Pago for another 2 days at least. With this knowledge I went to bed...that was because of the time differences...and Babar said he and Haris were off to explore the island.
When I cam back on shift I checked my emails and found a Flight Plan that had been filed for a departure on the same evening that they had said they were going to explore the island. This was a shock to me, so I quickly fired up the company tracker (one that allows communication between us and the pilot) and found the aircraft had started up and was taxying.
I received the automatic ping for a departure and it was timed at 0856Z (2156 local).
The next ping stated they were at 97ft and doing 77 knts. The tracker showed them over the end of the runway on the runway heading in a SW direction.
Then there was no update. I started sending messages to the crew to see if there was a problem but got no answer.
After 10 minutes I received the automatic signal that said the tracker was unable to transmit...but there was no emergency signal which it can send out.
I waited a while and then contacted the airport; which is uncontrolled and the airport ground crew would have had to be asked to be on duty...and it was our handler who did stay up for the departure.
The reply came within 45 minutes of departure that the aircraft appeared to have gone into the sea just after Take Off. Then a frantic couple of hours ensued in which the following information came to light...and these are the facts...
The aircraft took off on runway heading. It then made a turn to port and hit the sea about a mile off shore and SE of the airport. The weather was reportedly windy and the sea was choppy.
Haris's body was found at around 0115 local by the local rescue services...which are not close to being as organised or well equipped as the US versions.
The next real information came last night when a USCG C130 spotted wreckage, but not the fuselage or wings. The media and others have reported 'plane found' and this is not true.
The position has been marked and triangulated with an eyewitness report and the tracker information. The tides have been taken into consideration and when a diving team arrives they will then have somewhere to search.
Until an official report is given from the people at the scene (not media or agencies half way around the wordl) then all other information should be classed as speculation.
To clarify the Kiribati query. The flight plan submitted was for a continuous flight to Hawaii. PLCH was added as an alternative and would have been used if weather or technical problems made it neccessary.
If this had happened then it would have had to be an emergency landing as no one on Kiribati knew they were coming and as i said earlier, they should all be prosecuted for the way they run an airport.
But of course, this was never to be used as the aircraft perished within a mile of take off from NSTU.
We now await further information from the people at the scene and are working wth the family to get members to Pago for the repatriation of the body(s). The search continues for the airframe and Babar.
Personally, I had become great friends with both of them and was in contact with them many times a day for the whole of their flight and had the pleasure to show them the sights of Cairo and spend 3 happy days laughing and joking wth two of the most professional pilots I have had the pleasure to have worked with...and I have worked with many so called more experienced pilots who didn't have the dedication to planning that Babar and Haris had. They will be sorely missed.

Eddie thanks for this write up, well wait for NTSB inquiry since this was on U.S. territory, however I was bit surprised with Babar 's decision to choose turtle pac tanks, instead of aluminum tanks (less prone to weight & Balance issues) as some one who has seen "dozens " of Ferry Pilots make this route in the last 5 years from northern California without a single incident (expect for one guy who ditched 15 mile off Helio in a twin( his fault) but was rescued) and followed B & H very closely despite my reservations about taking a 17 year old freshly minted pilot in a single engine plane . (2.) Not taking the Jack Weingand route which would have been safer I even wrote to him about it ! but got a mouth full from him in one of his blogs but I wished them well and safe journey,certainly this was a sad day for General Aviation.May they rest in peace