aviation weather decision making tor the student PPL

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classicrock

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acousticguitar
As a PPL student, I have learned quite a bit about aviation weather over the past 15 months. As a student flying VFR, there is the obvious: you don’t fly with thunderstorms in the area of the airport(and which the storms are expected to be around for a while), when visibility is poor(and expected to stay that way), and when its really windy. I have talked with my instructor about their decision-making with regards to weather limitations on flying lessons. She(yes it’s a woman)told me she monitors convective activity, temp/dew point spread, amongst other factors
Its not unusual for us to chat on the phone an hour or 2 before a lesson if the weather is questionable, and make a mutual go/no go decision
I (and she) also have to consider whether we are doing closed pattern work, practicing slow flight/emergency procedures, and or doing/meeting some cross country requirement for the PPL.


My aviation weather decision-making is evolving, hence my eliciting of my instructors criteria. and How I decided 12 months ago is different from what it was 5 months ago, and that is different from what it was 40 days ago. Mostly due to my better understanding through time of Metar/TAFS, Weather Depiction Charts/Low Level Prog charts/, and Airmets/Sigmets/Convective Sigmets, Winds A loft/Temps.

So what I like is for the other PPL students to comment on how their aviation weather decision making has evolved as well as how the CFI’s on this forum to comment on how they are coaching their students reference weather conditions and flying.
 
Well as an instrument pilot student, weather plays a huge role in go/no go decisions more so than private did in terms of knowledge. I recommend the FAA weather charts like the low level prognostic charts, freezing levels and review PIREPS for icing/turbulence and convective weather (thunderstorms, etc.). I call 1-800-WX-BRIEF and DUATS to get an area forecast as part of a weather briefing if I am planning a long cross country to help me avoid bad weather and for planning alternates.
 
15 months and still a student? Stop watching the clouds and go fly. Weather is important but so is finishing.
 
Look at surrounding TAFs, they are rather accurate hours before your planned flight. Hone in on wind, ceiling, and visibility. Match the wind up against the runway layout at the planned fields. To me that's the simple way to check weather.

No matter where or how you check, always be willing to adjust based on current conditions.
 
For the PPL your weather making decisions are relatively easy actually. Once you get your instrument rating those black and white decisions turns all kinds of grey.

Don't be afraid to push your personal minimums with an instructor on board.

When I started (before my PPL) one of the instructors asked, "Would you fly with wind gusts up to 23 knots?". I said, "No". Mostly because at the time, that amount of wind was well beyond my personal minimums, even if it was right down the runway.

Now it doesn't bother me much. Same for thunderstorms.

I live in FL and if I didn't fly when thunderstorms were in the area, that would basically cut out half the year, if not more. You learn to work with what you have and observe PATTERNS. I'm not so stupid that I would fly under a thunderstorm or when one is headed towards my area (I've had to divert twice due to storms cutting off my travel route). But, thunderstorms in the "area" don't bother me as long I know where they are and what they are doing. And, I always have alternates (plural, one won't cut it) planned.

You can read what the METARS say, the TAFS, convective outlook, etc, but keep in mind those are all static, interpreted pieces of information. Some based on observation others just guesses.

On my PPL checkride the DPE asked me if the METAR at an airport showed OVC 002 but it was clear outside could you legally fly? Hell yeah you could! Don't put all your faith in that information but use it to set a baseline. Then go look outside and make the call.

I do find it particularly interesting that METARS or TAFS that would keep me grounded a year ago are no big deal now due to experience with local conditions, my own skill level and comfort with the aircraft.

In the beginning of your training its OK to be cautious, but as far down the road as you are you should be looking for reasons to go, not reasons to stay home.

One last thought, if you are carrying passengers with you, definitely INCREASE your weather minimums. What you can handle and what the average person can handle are two VERY different things.
 
Don't forget to observe the weather yourself!

Scattered clouds can be a go or a no go, depending on where they are. And their shape and definition can tell you a lot about what the air below them is doing.

Satellite images can also tell you where the clouds are.
 
Captain said:
15 months and still a student? Stop watching the clouds and go fly. Weather is important but so is finishing.
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Captain

there is no need for that kind of comment. if you cant add something positive, why post at all?
 
Why focus on the one post you view as negative?

You have a buffet of opinions and responses to your OP and the only one you took time to address is mine. That tells me mine was spot on and maybe you get distracted easily resulting in being a 15 month ppl student.

I'm on your side btw, I want you to finish. I want another pilot. Get out there tiger and get 'er done.
 
There is plenty of information available online. Go to www.1800wxbrief.com and check out the weather pages. On almost all of the charts you will see INFO in the upper right corner..that takes you to the reverse side, where the front side is explained.

My quick-and-dirty for the VFR pilot is this: Moisture in the atmosphere reduces visibility, so where is the moisture along my route?; is it moving toward me or away?; is the sea level pressure at my departure airport and destination airport going up or down (up is better)?. I look at recent METARs at my destination and along my route to get a general idea of whether the weather is getting better or worse. TAFs only predict weather within 5 miles of the primary airport, and something really nasty might be ten miles away....and of course they are forecasts, not observations.

Bob Gardner
 
bobmrg said:
There is plenty of information available online. Go to www.1800wxbrief.com and check out the weather pages. On almost all of the charts you will see INFO in the upper right corner..that takes you to the reverse side, where the front side is explained.

My quick-and-dirty for the VFR pilot is this: Moisture in the atmosphere reduces visibility, so where is the moisture along my route?; is it moving toward me or away?; is the sea level pressure at my departure airport and destination airport going up or down (up is better)?. I look at recent METARs at my destination and along my route to get a general idea of whether the weather is getting better or worse. TAFs only predict weather within 5 miles of the primary airport, and something really nasty might be ten miles away....and of course they are forecasts, not observations.

Bob Gardner
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Bob

yes I have been using 800wxbrief for quite a while now. I appreciate the comment about SLP. as well as whether a storm system is moving toward/away from my area. the distinctions between what was a forecast and what is historical, I started to make about 5? months ago.

the thing is that my decisionmaking is in flux/evolving and as a student, I KNOW that I dont know everything. and so modeling various CFI's decisionmaking(besides my own instructor) is a way to enhance my own

thanks
 
Caramon13 said:
For the PPL your weather making decisions are relatively easy actually. Once you get your instrument rating those black and white decisions turns all kinds of grey.

Don't be afraid to push your personal minimums with an instructor on board.

When I started (before my PPL) one of the instructors asked, "Would you fly with wind gusts up to 23 knots?". I said, "No". Mostly because at the time, that amount of wind was well beyond my personal minimums, even if it was right down the runway.

Now it doesn't bother me much. Same for thunderstorms.

I live in FL and if I didn't fly when thunderstorms were in the area, that would basically cut out half the year, if not more. You learn to work with what you have and observe PATTERNS. I'm not so stupid that I would fly under a thunderstorm or when one is headed towards my area (I've had to divert twice due to storms cutting off my travel route). But, thunderstorms in the "area" don't bother me as long I know where they are and what they are doing. And, I always have alternates (plural, one won't cut it) planned.

You can read what the METARS say, the TAFS, convective outlook, etc, but keep in mind those are all static, interpreted pieces of information. Some based on observation others just guesses.

On my PPL checkride the DPE asked me if the METAR at an airport showed OVC 002 but it was clear outside could you legally fly? Hell yeah you could! Don't put all your faith in that information but use it to set a baseline. Then go look outside and make the call.

I do find it particularly interesting that METARS or TAFS that would keep me grounded a year ago are no big deal now due to experience with local conditions, my own skill level and comfort with the aircraft.

In the beginning of your training its OK to be cautious, but as far down the road as you are you should be looking for reasons to go, not reasons to stay home.

One last thought, if you are carrying passengers with you, definitely INCREASE your weather minimums. What you can handle and what the average person can handle are two VERY different things.
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If I'm ever in your neck of the woods, I'd love to get one of those lessons first-hand, up-close and personal.
 
Some pilots really get into weather, and can beat the weather pros regularly; but I'm no weather guru, and mortal-lock certain the pros can predict weather better than me, so I use them.

If this helps, I start with TAFS, look at the radar loops and sat loops, then METARS (especially if the TAF and METARS aren't agreeing). And where's the freezing level, what's the temp/dew point spread?

The weather guessers seem, to me, more likely to be wrong on timing, and not so often on the actual prediction; things sometimes happen faster or slower than they predict.

When the forecast is for worse weather later in the day, put it in the back of your head it could happen sooner - higher winds, lower ceiling, whatever, and a chance to get caught out.

If it's supposed to be better later, then hang out and see!
 
Captain said:
Why focus on the one post you view as negative?

You have a buffet of opinions and responses to your OP and the only one you took time to address is mine. That tells me mine was spot on and maybe you get distracted easily resulting in being a 15 month ppl student.

I'm on your side btw, I want you to finish. I want another pilot. Get out there tiger and get 'er done.
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respectfully,your posting was the ONLY posting in this thread, that rather than commenting about aviation weather decisionmaking, chose to comment how long it seemed to be taking me to do my flight instruction. for someone who claims "to be on my side",it was off topic and you were "spot off"
 
As a VFR pilot, always have a back up plan. Assume the METAR and TAF are wrong and always have an alternate in mind.
 
Captain said:
15 months and still a student? Stop watching the clouds and go fly. Weather is important but so is finishing.
Click to expand...

classicrock said:
Captain

there is no need for that kind of comment. if you cant add something positive, why post at all?
Click to expand...

Captain said:
Why focus on the one post you view as negative?

You have a buffet of opinions and responses to your OP and the only one you took time to address is mine. That tells me mine was spot on and maybe you get distracted easily resulting in being a 15 month ppl student.

I'm on your side btw, I want you to finish. I want another pilot. Get out there tiger and get 'er done.
Click to expand...

Why post it that way? You chose your words to be provocative in your first post and you still are in your second.

Are you not smart enough to image some pretty good reasons for being a 15 month student aside from being "distracted easily"? I took well over a year to finish mine. I was fresh out of school and didn't have much time or money to fly. Family? Work? Money constraints? Plane availability?

It comes across (and I suspect is intended) as dickish. There's an uncalled-for turbodick comment like this in virtually every thread on this board but and it's especially unhelpful in the Pilot Training forum. I'm sure you are God's gift to airplanes, but honestly this kind of reply is a turn-off to new pilots who might want to post here.
 
jordane93 said:
As a VFR pilot, always have a back up plan. Assume the METAR and TAF are wrong and always have an alternate in mind.
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I will agree with that. First solo cross country I went on, clouds were supposed to be 5000' according to the METAR. When I took off, I found out they were closer to 2200'. I turned back to the airport immediately.
 
jordane93 said:
As a VFR pilot, always have a back up plan. Assume the METAR and TAF are wrong and always have an alternate in mind.
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Agreed. "skys clear, 10+" Looking up, appears to be a very light thin layer at about 800' that I can see through easily. Took off and learned a valuable lesson that what may be easy to see through from the ground may be impossible to see through from the air. My alternative was clear so I had a backup.. ended up flying for fun for 45min while the layer cleared and landed uneventful. However, a great lesson was learned.
 
petrolero said:
Why post it that way? You chose your words to be provocative in your first post and you still are in your second.

Are you not smart enough to image some pretty good reasons for being a 15 month student aside from being "distracted easily"? I took well over a year to finish mine. I was fresh out of school and didn't have much time or money to fly. Family? Work? Money constraints? Plane availability?

It comes across (and I suspect is intended) as dickish. There's an uncalled-for turbodick comment like this in virtually every thread on this board but and it's especially unhelpful in the Pilot Training forum. I'm sure you are God's gift to airplanes, but honestly this kind of reply is a turn-off to new pilots who might want to post here.
Click to expand...

It took me a year, in upstate NY, even after having soloed 15 years prior. I had about 12 hours when I returned to training ... Yes... between the harsh winter, aircraft availability and family responsibilities... it was quite a quest...
 
IN seattle, we have to look at cielings the most. I've had to cancel due to cielings below 2,000 more often than other factors. Also, if wind is to gusty I've cancelled lessons. I actually want to train in some wind, but 15 G 30 is more than I want at my tender level of experience
 
Correct in fact right now as an instrument student, I am far more conservative in my personal minimums the more I learn about how weather can get you in trouble or dead. We are having El Nino weather back to back tstorms and flooding here in San Diego. We even had a 4.9 earthquake that woke me up at 6am this morning when my walls were shaking!
 
As an IR student I'm currently learning tons about weather that is overkill for VFR pilots.

For my VFR flying I want to know about winds/gusts and about low clouds. For this information I have found no better source than https://www.windyty.com

It gives you the current situation and the slider on the bottom lets you see forecasts 12 days out. On the right, you can open the wind dropdown to select gusts and you can open the clouds/rain dropdown to select low clouds.

Click anywhere on the map to get detailed forecasts for that location or airport.
 
160hr PPL here, got my ticket on 8/22 at 77hrs. Use fore flight for most of my WX/briefing needs. My missions consist mostly of the CA Central Valley with a few trips to SoCal/SW AZ.

My rules: Assign a level of risk for each Airmet.

IFR (I can see that and cross check with WX on the way)
Turbulence (Let's dig in to what's causing the turbulence...and who's experiencing it--FF's pirep function is awesome.
T-Storms (use your best judgement...summer t-storms are easy to see and avoid for the most part...the crazy WX this month? Not so much.
Icing (if the freezing level is anywhere near my cruising altitude, rethink.

Now on to the digging deeper:

Cloud Cover - Open the satellite layer on FF. is it completely overcast? Multiple layers? What's the ceiling? A ceiling to a VFR pilot is just that. You know you need to be well below it. 5,000ft ceiling over 500' terrain...not ideal, but flyable if other conditions are solid. Cross check the satellite picture with actual METARs on your route

Winds- check surface winds at airports along your route...that will tell you a lot about what you're going to expect. Gusty winds? Probably a little choppy. Calm winds...lets roll.
Winds aloft - what direction is the weather moving. Are the winds generally in coordinating directions on your route? Probably going to be pretty smooth then...

And you'll also get an idea of which way and how fast the weather is moving.




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I think the weather related planning is easier with the instrument rating. The thought of having to plan a long flight to remain VFR seems like a lot more work unless the forecast is perfect.
 
Do you have ForeFlight or something similar? I like studying weather patterns in my area and correlating that with what I see and feel outside and what METARs and TAFs are showing. If you do that enough, you'll start to understand what all the weather products mean.

I plan imaginary flight scenarios and then see how well the weather turns out. That helps a lot when I plan a real flight.

Sometimes forecasts are good; other times they are not. Assume weather will get worse and plan for it.
 
JasonM said:
I think the weather related planning is easier with the instrument rating. The thought of having to plan a long flight to remain VFR seems like a lot more work unless the forecast is perfect.
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If anything it's harder.

For instance, could I fly yesterday, locally? Patchy clouds (mostly cloudy), ceiling 3000, freezing level forecast to 6000, AIRMET ZULU for moderate icing in effect from freezing level to FL200 and AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration. San Francisco Bay Area. NWS forecast is for rain, locally heavy.
 
Agree MAKG the instrument rating really makes you think about go/no go decisions with weather factors a much larger part than private pilot VFR conditions. Especially considering icing and freezing levels on the west coast and SIGMETS/AIRMETS. We really don't get as much convective weather like the mid west or east coast but these icing issues are more common. This weekend after I passed my instrument written exam, one of the local club instructors was telling me how she was dealing with serious windsheer conditions coming back into MYF.

Scott
 
Well... We pretty much go regardless of weather. It's nice to know what to expect, but we are going anyway.

Now, if company doesn't want to get a bunch of planes out of position they sometimes do "rearrange things..."
 
MAKG1 said:
If anything it's harder.

For instance, could I fly yesterday, locally? Patchy clouds (mostly cloudy), ceiling 3000, freezing level forecast to 6000, AIRMET ZULU for moderate icing in effect from freezing level to FL200 and AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration. San Francisco Bay Area. NWS forecast is for rain, locally heavy.
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Are you instrument rated? Where are you trying go? What are you flying?
 
JasonM said:
Are you instrument rated? Where are you trying go? What are you flying?
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Yes, I'm instrument rated. Let's say I want to practice approaches in actual in a 172.

Honestly, it doesn't matter much unless the airplane is FIKI.

Getting pretty much anywhere IFR under 5000 or 6000 is effectively impossible due to mountains. Not much margin there, unless you manage to stay clear of clouds. Which means not crossing mountains.
 
MAKG1 said:
Yes, I'm instrument rated. Let's say I want to practice approaches in actual in a 172.

Honestly, it doesn't matter much unless the airplane is FIKI.

Getting pretty much anywhere IFR under 5000 or 6000 is effectively impossible due to mountains. Not much margin there, unless you manage to stay clear of clouds. Which means not crossing mountains.
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I fly a FIKI airplane so my options would be more than yours, but it may be doable. I just watched a video posted by a guy out your way in similar weather.

 
JasonM said:
I fly a FIKI airplane so my options would be more than yours, but it may be doable. I just watched a video posted by a guy out your way in similar weather.

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Yeah, that's the same guy who does CTLs at 100 AGL. I won't be taking any lessons from him.

The point was, the go/no go for such a flight was borderline. The freezing level could easily be 1000 feet below the forecasts, and then it all depends on what outs are available. I chose no-go because there weren't any over the mountains.
 
MAKG1 said:
Yeah, that's the same guy who does CTLs at 100 AGL. I won't be taking any lessons from him.

The point was, the go/no go for such a flight was borderline. The freezing level could easily be 1000 feet below the forecasts, and then it all depends on what outs are available. I chose no-go because there weren't any over the mountains.
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I see what your saying, but I don't think that really was a good example for the average IFR flight since you or I may just can that flight anyhow right away. I guess my initial point myself was only that typical long cross country flights are easier to plan when flying IFR than VFR. At-least for me it has been the case.
 
JasonM said:
I see what your saying, but I don't think that really was a good example for the average IFR flight since you or I may just can that flight anyhow right away. I guess my initial point myself was only that typical long cross country flights are easier to plan when flying IFR than VFR. At-least for me it has been the case.
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Definitely depends where you. In my case it's been pretty easy being on LI. Ceiling <1000 no problem. During the summer it was tougher because of all the thunderstorms. Winter time it's icing season as well but so far it's been a very mild winter and IFR have been for the most part benign.
 
Today was a great example. KBFL - O20. Ceilings were all 5k or better on the Metars. 7-8k for most of the fields reporting.

Bottom line is, we flew it at 2500' to stay VFR. Got the shiat kicked out of us for a little bit off and on too. Rain, turbulence, but no ice.

Did I like to fly at 2000' AGL? From an operational standpoint., absolutely not. Winds were awesome and the view of the farms were excellent today, so that made up for it.

Then I tried to find the pot of gold when my four year old called out this traffic:

ed0a06ba2c4749c4de73daa75403b0d7.jpg


Bottom line is...weather was marginal but stable, so we chose to go.

I just created an acronym for the boxes to check.

Witch

Wind
Icing
Turbulence
Ceilings
Hazards (terrain)

If the WITCH looks good, fly the broom!




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