AVGAS Fuel Prices

Piloto

Line Up and Wait
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Oct 16, 2011
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Piloto
As everyone has noticed AVGAS price has been steadily increasing. I can see that by 2020 average price will be over $10/gal. Here are some cost calculation I made for different types at $10/gal

Engine type Cost per hour Cost per year (100 hours)

200hp $100 $200 twin $10,000 $20,000 twin
200hp Turbo $140 $280 twin $14,000 $28,000 twin
300hp $150 $300 twin $15,000 $30,000 twin
300hp Turbo $200 $400 twin $20,000 $40,000 twin

Me and others have noticed a significant reduction on piston plane activity at the airports. Unlike on previous decades I no longer see hangar activity or singles on the run up area. Most of the time I am the only single on the run up area. And I have to justify every flight. With the above numbers I can see the impact on GA planes.

Only those high efficient (nm/gal) planes will be able to survive the AVGAS rising cost. I am lucky to own a Mooney M20J that does 17.5nm/gal (20mi/gal) vs my SUV that does 18 mi/gal. But my hangar neighbor owns a 601P that does 5nm/gal. For the same number of hours in a year he pays an extra $30,000 and does not get any quicker than my 201 due to the preflight time taken by the 601P. With $30,000 I can stay at La Quinta for one year or just buy a new car. Not to mention the yearly maintenance/insurance cost of the 601P.

Like on the airliners the new GA performance spec to beat will not be speed but nm/gal by seat.

Comments on the above are welcome

José
 
10 bucks x gallon is not the biggest deal by 2020, start thinking on your ads-b out if you want to worry for something :D:rofl:
 
At one time, (early 2000s) I calculated that 100LL was increasing 2% a month for several years. In my area, the price has been been stable in the $5.90 range for the last 2 years. The long term trend for automobile and diesel is slightly downward for 2013 and predicted to decrease about 5% in 2014. That may or may not mean a decrease in 100LL, but I think we may see a small decrease in the short term.
 
10 bucks x gallon is not the biggest deal by 2020, start thinking on your ads-b out if you want to worry for something :D:rofl:

Shoot forgot about that one. I think I am going to start working on that pedal plane. I can loose weight while flying. How can it get better than this.

José
 
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