As of 6/3/21, current used small aircraft market.

From the front page of their website:

Due to the current COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the US economy, and direction from our parent company, the Jilin Hanxing Group, Glasair Aviation USA will pause sales and manufacturing operations until further notice. While on pause, the company is maintaining a core team of engineers, technicians, and maintenance personnel to provide customer support, fulfill parts orders, and continue product development efforts. Due to our reduced staff, there may be some delay in our response times.

We are unable to predict when we might resume full operation but encourage you to sign up for our newsletter below which is where we first announce updates and changes.

Indefinite suspension of most operations, at a minimum. The other kit manufacturers are slammed. Doesn't look good for them.
 
I'm building an RV-12iS now. I'm looking at larger, faster planes for my next project, high-wing preferred. Sportsman was on my list. I hope they make a comeback.
 
mcdewey said:
Here's my question though. Brand-new aircraft are expensive, priced way past what "normal" individuals can pay. There are only so many legacy planes out there and they are steadily getting older and breaking past the ability to repair. So the number of available planes is shrinking. How can prices decrease with a steady demand for these antique, affordable aircraft?
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In 1980, the private pilot population peaked at somewhere around 350,000 (I can't find the exact number), and declined up until recently, it's been nearly steady since 2016. Meanwhile, the production numbers peaked in 1978, where the U. S industry cranked out 14,398 singles. A decline started after that, and production really fell to the floor in the early 1980's, where we were averaging around a thousand per year since 1985. At no time in the 2010's did the U. S industry build 1000 piston singles, and only in 2019 did the whole world manage to pull that off, with 1,111 piston singles built. The pilot population has stabilized, and is actually growing younger, the fleet is going quite the other direction. I cribbed this from the FAA airmen stats, it lists the private pilots by age for the years 2015, 2018, and 2020:

Private Pilots by age.jpg

The number of pilots between 16 and 24 has grown, while most of the decrease is in the 50 -64 age groups. Also, the 75+ group is hanging in there.

So, yes, I'd say that @mcdewey is on to something. Until pilots start buying new airplanes, I don't see prices making much of a decline.
 
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DavidWhite said:
Yep. Most Millenials/Gen Zers will never even own a home, much less an airplane. Flying as a hobby will die with the boomers.
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Well, maybe with Gen X anyway.
 
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mcdewey said:
Here's my question though. Brand-new aircraft are expensive, priced way past what "normal" individuals can pay. There are only so many legacy planes out there and they are steadily getting older and breaking past the ability to repair. So the number of available planes is shrinking. How can prices decrease with a steady demand for these antique, affordable aircraft?
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Over on a piper forum a gentleman had the funds to buy an arrow. He contacted Piper, and Piper said they'd need an order of 15 for them to make it worth while to restart production. At what, 500k? I don't see why anyone would buy an arrow when they could buy a used Cirrus. For those, like myself that can't shell out 500k for a plane. But could swing 150k, what are you left with? You're still left with a 1960's Fuselage.

Or for the same or less, if you've got the skills you can build a Sling, RV, Rans, velocity, etc. Build it yourself you have much less governmental oversight. I can put a Dynon autopilot in and don't have to weight for approval like I am for the PA32/28. You would then also have the repairman's certificate to do your own annual if you so choose. Heck, the gentleman that wants an arrow could have Jesse Saint build an RV10 and still be way ahead.

For all the LSA's that came about a decade or so ago and was supposed to be the shot in the arm our fleet needed. The Government regulations severely limited that market for no apparent reason. Perhaps if/when they open up the regs on that class we see a larger customer base. I have to think at least part of why it hasn't happened are the existing manufacturers. If a new LSA was available that could compete with a 172 or pa28, would anyone buy those legacy aircraft? Weren't those legacy craft certified with older regulations and at a time when certification cost was substantially cheaper? What have Piper and Cessna brought to the table? Bonanza's are all but dead, and Mooney is. Piper took a seat out of the Archer, killed the arrow, killed the PA32 line, and killed the Dakota. Cessna brought, then killed the Skycatcher. They teased the NGP, then bought the Columbia, renamed it 3 or 4 times confusing the market and failed to compete with Cirrus. Piper and Cessna (to a lesser extent) have lacked innovation and have sold the same thing at an inflated price, comparable to some kits. So I really think the future of our fleet will be in the EAB market.

If Van's ever decides to make a 6 seat RV with that IE2 from Lycoming, I'll be all over it.
 
German guy said:
Wow! :eek:
I'm wondering if there is more to the story!? TWTT was a hot seller, they could have certainly increased the prices. I would bet that for +$300k people still would have bought it.
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Base price was 244k. You could have easily got it over 300k. Add in carbon fiber over fiberglass and the io390 over the 360 and you add 28k. Upgrade the panel to ifr and you add 30-40k. Add the BRS chute for 35k. Now we're talking 350k. Add every option and it's probably 400k.

From 04-2011 they had sold 350 sportsman's. 157 were the 2 weeks to taxi. Perhaps they were turning a profit. Perhaps the profit margin wasn't there? Maybe sales started to diminish? Maybe the Chinese ownership decided it wasn't worth it?
 
If they can keep intrest rates low like this everything toy and home wise will continue to rise in price IMHO. However let intrest rates shoot up as inflation increases and things will reverse quickly. Most people are not buying boats, planes they are quasi renting via a loan. I bought my wife’s Infinity and the closer guy at the dealership handed me paperwork for a lease. I said nope I am writing you a check and asked if most people bought thier cars and he said no most lease them. I am in the market for a boat but prices are crazy and people are too financing them for 20 + years.
 
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