Wow, you bring up an issue that goes way deeper than you may have thought…
How can ANYONE have ANY clue about how they think they’re gonna do as an airline pilot? The problem is that it takes such a LONG and arduous process to get there, failure becomes not an option…
“In the old days…”, egad I said it, I must be old, the classic path of earn your certs, instruct, fly checks, fly regionals, fly majors (don’t need a ATP until then), you had an idea before it was too late.
The modern method of all or nothing, start in a seniority based career level position commensurate with that kind of training leads to two problems applicable to this topic:
1. You make it, you AINT gonna jeopardize it for anything, think suffer or self medicate. OR, you don’t really like it, too bad, gonna do it anyway, lots of people don’t like their jobs. This is a BAD job to do simply because it’s too costly to change.
2. Because the FAA cannot practice common medicine nor figure out how to use expert processes, many simply cannot start, exacerbating the problem of finding pilots.
Hate to complain without SOME sort of offered solution… I do believe requiring 1500 (or 1200 hundred, no difference, my guess is that’s within the “fudge tolerance” of logbooks these days) is a big part of the problem. I didn’t see where not requiring it was really a problem 20 years ago.
Caveat… a big difference is the equipment in the training camps. In the minors you don’t regularly get 90mph fastballs. In the regionals you now DO get jets requiring the same airspace, the same ground speeds, and operating on the same performance margins as those in the majors. Only it ain’t nearly as good a jet… much poorer systems and flying qualities.
AND they fly to much tougher places. Take a senior international captain from ANY major and send him from Dallas to Tyler Texas late one night fully loaded with a bunch of foreign flight training going on at an uncontrolled field. VARSITY. He ain’t gonna do well likely.
Unions fighting for regionals and majors is a conflict of interest. It’s made a mess. We now have no place to raise GOOD airline pilots. Airlines are making programs to boost flight time from 500 to 1500 by subsidizing hood/safety pilot methods to keep time building cheap. NEITHER is getting real experience. This is what it’s becoming! That’s legal loophole logbook padding…