Another go/no-go decision question..

cowman

cowman

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Have a flight planned from KUIN -> KRHI tomorrow. Departure time is flexible, can realistically leave any time from around 9am-4pm... maybe a little later even if I can figure out how to grab my rental car or a ride after hours.

Departure area is looking pretty solidly IFR all day tomorrow most likely, I'm expecting scattered showers all day long.

The upside is I'll be flying towards better weather, depending on which way the system goes I might see MVFR conditions within 30min or so... more solidly VFR within 1-1.5 hours again depending on which way this goes.

I'm not really seeing any reason why I can't but OTOH I've never flown in anything like this before. I'd really like the ceilings to come up to at least 1,000'... some of the forecasts suggest this might all shift a little further south putting me in MVFR territory which would be no sweat. Guess we'll see what it all says in the morning but I'd like input from folks with more IFR experience than I have.

Aircraft is a Piper Archer, primary nav is a 430w. Will have a stratus 2s and foreflight onboard.
 
I don't know what exactly you're looking at in terms of marginal VFR, but if you're reasonably new IFR pilot a marginal ceiling would be a fine thing I would think. Check out the Skew-t chart as well. There's a really good chance you'll be able to climb on top.
Always think in terms of an Escape Route. Where am I going to go if things really turn to crap?
Ask yourself how comfortable you are shooting an approach to minimums if I had to.
If you're comfortable with that, your options open up quite a bit. Always look to the place where you can get to at least MVFR if need be. It sounds like you're already doing that.
The forecast is the forecast. Usually it's pretty good, but sometimes not. I rarely cancel flights based on forecast.
To me, it sounds like a pretty easy flight as long as everything in the airplane is working the way you like it and you're comfortable using all the equipment.
A little bit of discomfort is okay. That's where we grow in our piloting skill. A large portion of that discomfort can be mitigated by good planning.
Solid IFR in a single engine airplane is always risky, but it sounds like you have the right mindset.
Go, have fun and grow!

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 
Just north of KMLI, Moline, it looks like great sailing. That forecast for KUIN ‘could’ change for the better. I bet if you print one off now, and compare the forecast for tomorrow midday(fresh one when you get up) it will be different. The actual observations will be different too.

If you are IFR able, maybe a short instrument leg to get to better weather?
 
Ceilings ended up on the low side today and with the moderate-heavy rain, lightning near the departure airport earlier, and convective outlook until 6 this is more than I really want to deal with. Watching for a change in the next couple hours but I’m probably saying no today.

What sucks is it looks like tomorrow is likely more of the same and if that’s the case this trip is pretty much off.
 
B105484B-06E8-454A-A4FF-5C0CD0820DE3.jpeg We made it. IDK, might have been fine yesterday but better safe than sorry. This was the view about 20 minutes after departure.
 
cowman said:
It is. I departed in overcast 1200 though, tops somewhere around 3800. A few sprinkles here and there. Pretty much a yawner
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