azure
Final Approach
Do you have a reference on that?So if the accuracy of the best meter is +/- 30 ppm how can you resolve the levels any better than that???
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/about/co2_measurements.html
Do you have a reference on that?So if the accuracy of the best meter is +/- 30 ppm how can you resolve the levels any better than that???
Maybe because it's intended as an educational resource?
I think he is saying that there SHOULD be a difference but that it isn't measured. Except that I'm not sure that's true. Refer to the NASA energy budget graphic.
Incoming solar radiation: 340.4 W/m2
Total reflected: 99.9 W/m2
Net incoming: 340.4 - 99.9 = 240.5 W/m2
Outgoing longwave radiation: 239.9 W/m2
Net absorbed: 240.5 - 239.9 = 0.6 W/m2
But the graphic does not give the error bars on the incoming and outgoing, and without knowing the error bars, one can't say whether the net absorbed is significant.
Either the difference IS measured, or it is unmeasurable due to measurement uncertainty. Either way, this is not evidence against either the greenhouse effect, or global warming.
It depends on how big the error bar is. Error bars are a measure of our uncertainty in a measured value. The true value lies somewhere in the range indicated. 0.6 +- 0.2 means the true value lies between 0.4 and 0.8. 0.6 +- 0.7 means that 0 lies within the range, so we cannot falsify 0 as a possible value.Oh. Without the error bar there is a .6 difference. But with an error bar it would be statistically insignificant.
The teacher should say that it represents the best current measurements of the different parts of the planetary energy balance. That is how NASA represents it. I doubt very strongly that the chart is intentionally biased if that's what you mean, but systematic error is always possible and is something that refinements in instrumentation and technique will hopefully uncover, if it exists.If a school teacher used this graph for a lesson, what will the teacher say it means? Does this chart have a bias built into it?
No. The difference, if it is significant, means only that there is more energy coming in than going out, so the planet must warm to restore the balance. Once a new balance is reached, the difference will once again be zero.What does it mean.? Shouldn't there be a significant difference, between incoming and outgoing radiation if a lot of this outgoing radiation is "trapped" by Greenhouse gases?
A new energy balance is reached when the warming has brought the column of CO2 to a higher temperature where its emission once again balances the incoming solar radiation. The lapse rate at this new energy balance is the same as it was initially, but moved to higher temperatures in each layer, as shown. The result of the CO2 forcing at the top of the atmosphere is a warmer surface temperature. Emission from the top of the atmosphere controls the surface temperature.
I finished my PhD in physics back in the early 1990s. My research area was electron interactions with small diatomic molecules (mainly H2). Afterward I spent about 15 years doing a combination of IRIX and Linux system administration, grid software development, and teaching introductory physics and astronomy at the undergraduate level. My systems work was funded by soft money, which dried up in 2010. Since then I've been teaching full time.::::::::::::
This has been a really enlightening thread with lots of thought-provoking dialog. If azure and retro don't mind, I'd like to learn about your backgrounds - academic, professional, or other. Would each of you give us a short overview or even just a bullet list describing your background?
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I seriously doubt they use commercially available equipment.I used the the googles, and the most accurate CO2 meter I could find was +/- 30ppm. Why doesn't the paper you reference list the equipment used????
I finished my PhD in physics back in the early 1990s. My research area was electron interactions with small diatomic molecules (mainly H2). Afterward I spent about 15 years doing a combination of IRIX and Linux system administration, grid software development, and teaching introductory physics and astronomy at the undergraduate level. My systems work was funded by soft money, which dried up in 2010. Since then I've been teaching full time.
I used the the googles, and the most accurate CO2 meter I could find was +/- 30ppm. Why doesn't the paper you reference list the equipment used????
2014 wasn't the warmist year on record but the headline was widely used.
Instead of technical explanations I would like to hear in layman's terms how the science remains 'settled' in spite of the models being wrong, and the predictions.
I don't have to be a physicist to know that falsifying data in order to hide trends that are there and expose predicted trends that are not evident but were predicted adds up to propaganda. Why do the 'real' scientest rely on then defend anything other than truth that can be replicated?
Go back and look at predictions made by the experts, and then look at what really happened. The climate alarmists 15 or so years ago were forecasting catastrophic events by this time. Yet sea levels have not been rising any faster than they have been for centuries. The major climate models were projecting steady rises in global warming each year, yet average temperatures have not risen for 17 years. Al Gore and his alarmist crowd told us that the Arctic would be free of sea ice during the summer by now and that we would be having more and stronger tornadoes and hurricanes. The Arctic sea ice is still with us, and few ships dare sail there. Many tornado and hurricane records have been broken — not because there were more — but because there have been fewer. Florida has gone a record nine straight seasons without a significant hurricane.
Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news...rs-predictions-like-climate-ch/#ixzz3Ns12CVHS
2014 wasn't the warmist year on record but the headline was widely used.
I don't have to be a physicist to know that falsifying data in order to ...
I read the entire article. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I didn't catch anything in there referencing 2014 and its status on the records ladder.
And you're sure that this rampant falsification of data is actually occurring in research projects all around the world? I'm curious - what is your scientific background? It's a relevant question considering your opinions on how scientific research is performed.
The alarmists are making the falsifications go away through self investigation and exoneration. Earlier they made warm and cold periods go away to create the hockey stick. You are correct I have no formal training but the implication that I lack 'standing' to even question is absurd.
You certainly are entitled to your opinions. Just wanted to see what kind background so I'd know how to weight your commons.
Color me self taught in all things including flying skills. I was busy making money when most people where still going to high school.
I do have a sense of smell and therefore question climate science as it is presented by the media and politicians.
This is simply not true. The Greenhouse effect was not "necessary to invent", it is a consequence of the physics of radiative transfer that is based on the spectroscopic properties of CO2 and other GHGs in the atmosphere, as well as the theory of thermal radiation whose predictions are well matched in the observed fluxes plotted in the figures on those ACS pages you were pointed to, and said you had read (but obviously did not understand).http://judithcurry.com/2012/11/05/uncertainty-in-observations-of-the-earths-energy-balance/The SB equation can not predict the temperature of an actual celestial body. For those that think it can it is necessary to invent this thing called the Greenhouse effect.
Again, this is not correct. The complexity is not something imposed to make the theory work, like a fudge factor, it is a consequence of the physics involved and the way changes in variables affect other variables. The radiative transfer model in the ACS link is only one part of the physics involved. To correctly model the atmosphere one needs also to take into account the equations of fluid dynamics.In order to make this effect work, it becomes very complex and the Greenhouse gases are naturally of utmost importance. Most think the balance is important and therefore our addition of CO2 is going to throw everything out of whack. The minority think the mechanism is self correcting, at most a small increase in temp which would be beneficial.
This is simply not true. The Greenhouse effect was not "necessary to invent", it is a consequence of the physics of radiative transfer that is based on the spectroscopic properties of CO2 and other GHGs in the atmosphere, as well as the theory of thermal radiation whose predictions are well matched in the observed fluxes plotted in the figures on those ACS pages you were pointed to, and said you had read (but obviously did not understand).
Again, this is not correct. The complexity is not something imposed to make the theory work, like a fudge factor, it is a consequence of the physics involved and the way changes in variables affect other variables. The radiative transfer model in the ACS link is only one part of the physics involved. To correctly model the atmosphere one needs also to take into account the equations of fluid dynamics.
As others have said, you're entitled to your opinions and no one is forcing you to engage with the science if you're unwilling or unable. It's fine to form a layman's opinion of the integrity of the research based on clues outside the realm of the science itself. But if you won't (or can't) understand the science, at least have the integrity yourself to admit that you're in no position to try to summarize it or pass judgement on exactly what is wrong with a model that fails to conform with observations.
I doubt many will read through the PDF you linked to, but it's actually very interesting. Thanks for the link!
I doubt many will read through the PDF you linked to, but it's actually very interesting. Thanks for the link!
I agree that there is enough uncertainty in our climate's long-term variability to leave some doubt about how much, if any of the recent warming trend is due to human effects. You'll find lots of opinions about that among climate scientists. The vast majority believe it is very likely that most of it is human caused, though I'm not sure how that majority breaks down into "better than 95% likely" vs. "better than 66% likely" or 50% likely or whatever percentage >=50% you pick. At this point I'm in the "likelier than not" camp, but I wouldn't try to be more definite than that. IOW better than 50%. Judith Curry has come down at the "as likely as not" point. There's also a minority who think it's more likely that we're seeing normal climate variability. I don't think we've ruled out that most of what we think is signal is actually noise, but in my mind it's almost certain that we've caused *some* of it.I'm waiting for the MMGW science to explain how MMGW fits in with the historic cycle of global warming/cooling. And I'm not talking about a microscopic view of history that only goes back a few hundred or thousand years. You can look at anything in minute detail and decide that the data you see right now is "the warmest we've ever seen", even though we know that the earth has always gone through a cycle of much warmer/much colder periods, and will continue to do so.
That argument really doesn't mean anything. On the first point, we were hunter/gatherers during the previous glacials and interglacials, we weren't in any better position than any other species to alter the global climate in any significant way. On the second, the planet also loses almost exactly the same amount of energy that it receives from the Sun, by radiation into space. "Almost" means that increasing GHGs in the atmosphere creates an imbalance that is small, but it's consistently in the warming direction and that is what matters. Say your net cash flow is zero without flying. If you fly even once a month, then your net cash flow is negative and unless you stop or balance the outflow, you are eventually going to go broke.What most MMGW scientists are looking at is noise on a sine wave. I'm not a scientist, but I'm also not a fool. We didn't start, end, or significantly alter any of the previous glacial periods. We aren't doing it now. Man isn't that strong. More solar energy strikes the surface of the earth in one hour than is provided by all of the fossil energy consumed globally in a year.
I wouldn't accuse anyone of planet rape. We're locked on a fossil-fuel treadmill and most of the available alternative energy sources require investments that will hurt everyone across the board just to reduce our fossil fuel usage by a significant amount. The IPCC has run various scenarios in that regard, but even significant reductions in CO2 emissions still carry the risk of serious disruptions to the climate system.Before someone rushes to accuse me of planet rape, let me add that I believe we should do everything within reason to maintain a clean and healthy environment. But while I'm all for a clean and healthy environment, I don't for a second believe that a healthy environment will equate to any meaningful change in the global climate. We're all on the global climate roller coaster together. I don't want the guy next to me to blow smoke in my face, but whether he does or doesn't isn't going to change the mechanics of the ride any at all.
Mr. Aplin likes nuclear energy. A lot.I thought this article was interesting.
http://canadianenergyissues.com/201...ucture-planning-in-the-age-of-climate-change/
Nice.
He is a scientist so might be able to find discrepancies with the climate alarmist's dogma. Is anybody going to argue that he is in the pocket of the oil industry as are all climate change deniers?The video of Dr. Patrick Moore is very interesting and a good watch for everyone, regardless of your side of the argument. A couple of comments about it.
(1) Moore appears to be a highly educated and knowledgeable figure in ecology. I haven't looked him up, but assume that he is as he is represented here.
(2) He is repeatedly tied to Greenpeace, but left the organization many years ago. He no longer speaks for Greenpeace. No suggestion here that Greenpeace's message is right or wrong, only that Dr. Moore's big tag as one of the founder's of Greenpeace has nothing to do with his (or their) current message.
(3) His message that wood is one of the most important of the earth's resources is one that both sides would agree with, probably even for the same reasons.
(4) His message to use more wood and less steel is probably another one that both sides would agree on. I haven't looked into this argument in much detail, but on the surface it seems like a very good one. Proper forestry management supports renewability. Mining for iron does not.
(5) His argument about the years 1910-1940 and 1970-2000 is too nuanced to swallow without a good bit of research. He may be right or he may be wrong. It depends on specific verbiage in some IPCC message that I haven't looked up. Way too broad to boil down into a succinct argument and not one to be tackled in a few paragraphs.
(6) Cut down more trees and do more forestry. This is where he really runs off the tracks. It's not his whole message in this video, but it's one that is misleading and one that is misused by environmental critics. (a) Clean shaving off old growth forests to get timber does huge environmental damage in a variety of ways. It's an enormous cost that he ignores in his talk. (b) Cutting down indigenous forest without replacing it (for example, logging, then converting to the land to farmland) reduces biodiversity and can alter hydrologic cycles when done in large areas. In the last decade of the 20th century, an area in the Amazon rainforest equal to the size of Spain was logged and converted to pastureland. This is typical of what happens to vast areas of wilderness when humans move in. This is a massive problem with global consequences.
(7) Moore makes no distinction between scientifically farming trees and standard worldwide logging practices. He simply says we need to be cutting down more trees. I'm sure that he understands the need for maintaining some global average of living trees, but he fails to stress this point in his talk. In fact, he ignores it completely. Environmental critics will only hear that part and will push to continue on our path of global deforestation. This will be a catastrophic mistake.
Roger that. Charges of major data falsification and global conspiracy among the science community from someone with no science and no academic research background. Got it.
Yup.... algae farms could be located next to powerplants... As it is now. Wyoming is pumping millions of Cu ft of CO2 deep in the ground for sequestration reasons..... What a waste of energy and resources..
He is a scientist so might be able to find discrepancies with the climate alarmist's dogma. Is anybody going to argue that he is in the pocket of the oil industry as are all climate change deniers?
I'm selling carbon credits. Normally $100,000 per unit but on sale to POA members for only $10,000.See, there is not one entrepreneur among you. You all want to argue about this crap rather than figure out how to take advantage of it.