Not just your prediction - it seemed that a large number of people slated the Matrix as destined for failure. When I talked to someone at SimCom (or was it Flight Safety?) a few months back, I remember him saying that the Matrix was actually so popular they were having trouble meeting demand for spots in their sim training.
Y'see, the problem is that Piper, like most GA companies, has a level of marketing prowess on par with that of a garden slug.
When they did the intro at Expo, it was like "Here's a new Malibu, it's just like a Mirage only it's not pressurized." And everyone thought "Gee, what a smashing rep the Mirage has... This is going to go over like a lead balloon."
If they'd have just stood up and said "Here's a six-seat SR22" everyone would have been all gaga over it from the start... Maybe.
That said, I'm not sure what the distinction really is over the Turbo Saratoga, except for burning more fuel, requiring more mx, having an air-stair and an interior you can kind of move around in a little bit. What's the price difference? I mean, it's a very cool plane, but I don't quite grok it. My thought was mainly "OK, this looks like an airplane you'd do business on - Hmmm, business deal with nose straws? This ain't gonna work."
<looks at Piper's web site>
Oh, and deice. That's big.
List prices:
Turbo Saratoga $573,500
Matrix $819,000
Mirage $1,190,000
Meridian $1,896,500
That's interesting. I thought the TS/Matrix were both less at the time, and the Meridian was more. Maybe I'm gettin' old and my memory is failing. I had thought that the Meridian was in the $2.2M range, which would mean the PiperJet would have to be up in the $3+M range, which would put you in the "Why not a Citation Mustang" club.
For reference, the SR22 Turbo starts at $446,600 for the non-Perspective, non-GTS variety - GTS base price is $542,900 and GTS+Perspective base price is $590,900. Comparing base models, the Turbo Saratoga costs more, is metal instead of composite, and I think it's 20 knots or so slower. But, it's got 6 seats and that nice big back door.
Man, it's fun figuring out how to spend money I'll never have.