20% Wall Tax

I'm worried about the next 50 years. I believe its going to be a great step towards the future of humanity- but whatever that ends up being but it's going to be a turbulent time.

We will eventually replace so many low-skill jobs with automation that we will run into the reality that we have far more people than we have a need for labor wise. We'll end up having to rethink everything about how we've allocated funds, goods, and services throughout history. There will still be many jobs that you need educated people to do yet there won't be enough jobs for everyone to have one. What will we do? Will we still maintain the full-time work model or limit the hours people can work to make room for more jobs? How will we take care of those who there simply isn't employment for? Surely those who bother to get an education and employment will expect a better standard of living for their troubles. What about those of us with accumulated wealth... and I don't just mean billionaires... what of those with family businesses, farms, those who invested well. There will surely be a large push to "distribute the wealth". Then there's the whole issue of how to handle an ever increasing population.....

I don't pretend to know how it will go and I think the end result will be a better brighter future.... but I'm really worried about living through the transition period and whether or not a person like me will be able to be happy living in such a world.
 
Everskyward said:
But to address both this post and @Matthew's post, US workers are not going to work for the same pay and benefits that Chinese workers do, so even though human labor may be cheaper than automation the way things are today, if the jobs come back to the US, the figures are going to be different.
Click to expand...

Some are never coming back: Those are jobs that were lost when whole markets were killed by foreign competition - think about the US steel manufacturers.

Others will, sort of: companies that moved production off shore will move it back to the US only when it's cheaper. That means fewer employees, making more with less.
 
Gary said:
Just to clarify, if the Mexican VAT is an internal, nationwide tax, it isn't part of NAFTA? If it isn't part of NAFTA, I'm still looking for that reason that NAFTA is so unfair to the US. Understand your point of the US capital advantage verses the Mexican labor cost advantage.
Click to expand...

It's not. But if you look at the world as a zero-sum game, like real estate where for me to win you have to lose, whoever sells more wins. We are running a trade deficit, so we must be losing, amirite? But only if you look at one side of the balance sheet. And besides, it plays better politically for us vs. them.
 
cowman said:
I'm worried about the next 50 years. I believe its going to be a great step towards the future of humanity- but whatever that ends up being but it's going to be a turbulent time.

We will eventually replace so many low-skill jobs with automation that we will run into the reality that we have far more people than we have a need for labor wise. We'll end up having to rethink everything about how we've allocated funds, goods, and services throughout history. There will still be many jobs that you need educated people to do yet there won't be enough jobs for everyone to have one. What will we do? Will we still maintain the full-time work model or limit the hours people can work to make room for more jobs? How will we take care of those who there simply isn't employment for? Surely those who bother to get an education and employment will expect a better standard of living for their troubles. What about those of us with accumulated wealth... and I don't just mean billionaires... what of those with family businesses, farms, those who invested well. There will surely be a large push to "distribute the wealth". Then there's the whole issue of how to handle an ever increasing population.....

I don't pretend to know how it will go and I think the end result will be a better brighter future.... but I'm really worried about living through the transition period and whether or not a person like me will be able to be happy living in such a world.
Click to expand...
I have asked myself those same questions many times. I don't know the answers either. Perhaps reducing the retirement age to make room for younger workers. If there are just not enough jobs, then we will have to support those that don't have jobs. But then who is going to work? Maybe we make it so that the few that do work are greatly rewarded so we will have an even greater disparity between the haves and the have-nots, but at least the have-nots will actually have something; not much, but enough.
 
Matthew said:
Some are never coming back: Those are jobs that were lost when whole markets were killed by foreign competition - think about the US steel manufacturers.

Others will, sort of: companies that moved production off shore will move it back to the US only when it's cheaper. That means fewer employees, making more with less.
Click to expand...

During the times of the pyramids, it took legions of workers to move big rocks. Then came the time of horses, and fewer people were needed. Then steam power, then internal combustion and on and on. Times change, industry and productivity changes, people get displaced. It's not always due to foriegn competition. Jobs just go away. Instead of saving and investing our capital advantage, we've squandered much of it. Trying to bring back jobs others can do more cheaply and efficiently using protectionist policy is only going to prolong the pain.
 
cowman said:
I'm worried about the next 50 years. I believe its going to be a great step towards the future of humanity- but whatever that ends up being but it's going to be a turbulent time.

We will eventually replace so many low-skill jobs with automation that we will run into the reality that we have far more people than we have a need for labor wise. We'll end up having to rethink everything about how we've allocated funds, goods, and services throughout history. There will still be many jobs that you need educated people to do yet there won't be enough jobs for everyone to have one. What will we do? Will we still maintain the full-time work model or limit the hours people can work to make room for more jobs? How will we take care of those who there simply isn't employment for? Surely those who bother to get an education and employment will expect a better standard of living for their troubles. What about those of us with accumulated wealth... and I don't just mean billionaires... what of those with family businesses, farms, those who invested well. There will surely be a large push to "distribute the wealth". Then there's the whole issue of how to handle an ever increasing population.....

I don't pretend to know how it will go and I think the end result will be a better brighter future.... but I'm really worried about living through the transition period and whether or not a person like me will be able to be happy living in such a world.
Click to expand...
Perfectly well noted. Too many people not qualified for the fewer jobs available. So, either decrease population or increase opportunities. I'm not sure it's a zero sum game, though. A thriving economy builds on itself, so whatever helps that happen is something to consider. I think a big change in attitude will help, too. Somehow we decided that everyone deserves a college education, whether they are college material or not. The idea that anything less is a failure may have driven people away from trade schools. Automated factories still need electricians, maintenance, possibly machinists, truck drivers, and others. What they won't need is row after row of people turning a wrench.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
Yes
Click to expand...

Not surprised. The USA already drops bombs on foreign civilians in their own cities overseas, and uses drones to kill innocents abroad. Unfortunately, not a big step to start shooting foreigners on US soil. Sad to say an even smaller step to start shooting your own too, just like the communists, and for the same "internal security" excuse they have used for generations.
 
Credit where credit is due, Mr. Trump is out there kicking butt trying to keep jobs here, and I salute that. But I also see it as a tactical response to a strategic problem. If the jawboning fails and tariffs ensue, what happens when those fail, as most economists and history lead us to believe? Capital controls? That would be a disaster.
 
JOhnH said:
All right. Maybe the wall isn't the best method to control illegal immigration. Which method have we used in the past that worked better (besides the great recession).
Click to expand...

No problem answering that question.

In the decades after WWII no nation did more to open the world to trade than the USA. No nation did more to drag the rest of the world out of the abject poverty of the aftermath of war than the USA. No nation did more to create a level of global security to allow trade flows between nations, and thus some measure of prosperity to reduce migrants driven by the need to find economic and physical security for their families, than the USA.

So now we have the USA leading the bombing of Iraqi cities on utterly false WMD pretences. We have the US aided destabilization of Libya and then Syria. We have the destabilization of the entire Middle East. By no means is this the sole fault or responsibility of the USA. But the USA has forsaken damn near everything it stood for globally in the aftermath of WWII, and is now a contributor to the conditions that are causing people to take desperate measures and risks just to save their kids.
 
GRG55 said:
No problem answering that question.

In the decades after WWII no nation did more to open the world to trade than the USA. No nation did more to drag the rest of the world out of the abject poverty of the aftermath of war than the USA. No nation did more to create a level of global security to allow trade flows between nations, and thus some measure of prosperity to reduce migrants driven by the need to find economic and physical security for their families, than the USA.

So now we have the USA leading the bombing of Iraqi cities on utterly false WMD pretences. We have the US aided destabilization of Libya and then Syria. We have the destabilization of the entire Middle East. By no means is this the sole fault or responsibility of the USA. But the USA has forsaken damn near everything it stood for globally in the aftermath of WWII, and is now a contributor to the conditions that are causing people to take desperate measures and risks just to save their kids.
Click to expand...
There is so much wrong there that I can't fix it without the Ban Hammer falling.
 
A simple question. How long would a 20% tax on everything imported from Mexico have to last to build the wall?

And who thinks a) all the money just go to wall building and b) would be removed when it's finished?

Cheers
 
GRG55 said:
Not surprised. The USA already drops bombs on foreign civilians in their own cities overseas, and uses drones to kill innocents abroad. Unfortunately, not a big step to start shooting foreigners on US soil. Sad to say an even smaller step to start shooting your own too, just like the communists, and for the same "internal security" excuse they have used for generations.
Click to expand...


My political views are closest to libertarian with a slight sprinkling of left leaning social policies. I'm opposed to most of our military actions since ww2. Protecting our borders from foreign invaders with force is not communist, racist or un-American. We stole this land when it was settled a couple hundred years ago. It's not unrealistic to expect to need force every now and then to keep it.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
My political views are closest to libertarian with a slight sprinkling of left leaning social policies. I'm opposed to most of our military actions since ww2. Protecting our borders from foreign invaders with force is not communist, racist or un-American. We stole this land when it was settled a couple hundred years ago. It's not unrealistic to expect to need force every now and then to keep it.
Click to expand...

You stole it, I didn't steal anything.
 
X3 Skier said:
A simple question. How long would a 20% tax on everything imported from Mexico have to last to build the wall?

And who thinks a) all the money just go to wall building and b) would be removed when it's finished?

Cheers
Click to expand...

It'll work like the tolls collected to build bridges/turnpikes and pay off the bonds ;-)

Or our local salestax introduced 30 years ago to build the indoor sports arena.....

Ronald Reagan had it right when he stated that the closest thing to immortality is a government program. The same can be said about a tax.
 
Import taxes cannot last "forever" because the imports will stop if/when the importer cannot import the product and be competitive with the domestic equivalent product.

The protectionism allows the domestic producer to sell despite the lower production cost of the foreign producer, rather than having the market price degraded by the influx of the lower cost good.

Do we need to have a discussion of the difference between Cost and Price? There seems to be some confusion.

And there seems to be some interesting idea of Policy (politics) vs Economics. Only the later is an allowable topic on PoA.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
My political views are closest to libertarian with a slight sprinkling of left leaning social policies. I'm opposed to most of our military actions since ww2. Protecting our borders from foreign invaders with force is not communist, racist or un-American. We stole this land when it was settled a couple hundred years ago. It's not unrealistic to expect to need force every now and then to keep it.
Click to expand...
I would like to suggest that every person who claims that America is "stolen land" to immediately give their deeds to a "native" and immediately go back to where they and/or their ancestors came from (which was probably "stolen" from someone else along the way.)

Also, protecting our borders is not the same as it was pre-WW2, since the advent of ICBMs, long range bombers, and space-based weapons.
 
Ravioli said:
Import taxes cannot last "forever" because the imports will stop if/when the importer cannot import the product and be competitive with the domestic equivalent product.
Click to expand...

We have tariffs on chinese tires and french cheese for years yet both are available in the US market.
 
weilke said:
We have tariffs on Chinese tires and french cheese for years yet both are available in the US market.
Click to expand...

And we have domestic production of tires and cheese, so it would seem the tariffs are achieving the goal of protecting domestic tire and cheese producers.

If the tariff was higher than the importer can absorb within the prevailing market price, the import will stop.
 
paflyer said:
I would like to suggest that every person who claims that America is "stolen land" to immediately give their deeds to a "native" and immediately go back to where they and/or their ancestors came from (which was probably "stolen" from someone else along the way.)

Also, protecting our borders is not the same as it was pre-WW2, since the advent of ICBMs, long range bombers, and space-based weapons.
Click to expand...
We stole it and I'm willing to fight to keep it. Just because we have territory within our borders that used to be someone else's doesn't mean we should give it back or be shy about protecting what we now have.
 
Ravioli said:
And we have domestic production of tires and cheese, so it would seem the tariffs are achieving the goal of protecting domestic tire and cheese producers.

If the tariff was higher than the importer can absorb within the prevailing market price, the import will stop.
Click to expand...

That is a special case. You made a general statement about tariffs. As there is still a substantial difference in wage levels, I suspect Mexico will remain competitive even at a 20% tariff. 2-3 years in the tariff will get smacked down by the WTO and the treasury will be writing big checks.
 
X3 Skier said:
A simple question. How long would a 20% tax on everything imported from Mexico have to last to build the wall?

And who thinks a) all the money just go to wall building and b) would be removed when it's finished?

Cheers
Click to expand...
It would never pay for it and the tax would be forever. In my opinion.
 
weilke said:
That is a special case. You made a general statement about tariffs.
Click to expand...

My general statement is about tariffs, the theory behind them, and why they are effective to protect domestic industry. You named two 'special cases' and seem to agree that those tariffs are indeed protecting the domestic industries involved.

Without getting into the policy considerations, since that's political, you may have to agree that my assertions that tariffs work, don't "cost consumers," and don't last forever if the importer stops importing are kinda correct.

The thoughts and actions of the World Trade Organization are political, which we don't discuss here, and have absolutely nothing to do with tariffs as a protectionist tool.
 
And who really believes he cost estimates to build it. That seems to have gone from $8 bil to $25 bil overnight.

But, back to tariffs. Why does it make economic sense to protect the inefficient production of a domestic product and thus consign export markets to a more efficient producer? Ultimately, you'll get an inferior, more expensive domestic product. East Germany, the most successful of he eastern bloc countries before the fall of the wall is a good example.

If an economy can't compete in a given industry, it should invest and encourage innovations in those it can. That's how market economics works.
 
@Chip Sylverne - Yup... your challenges to tariffs are valid. They can be the eventual downside and even downfall of a protectionist policy. You also ended with the number one reason for Specialization and Trade.

But this is not the forum for policy debate.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
We stole it ...
Click to expand...
Most of the land was bought, and to get technical the people who were here earlier didn't have any kind of sovereign right to the land either, nor established borders. We simply out-populated them.
 
paflyer said:
Most of the land was bought, and to get technical the people who were here earlier didn't have any kind of sovereign right to the land either, nor established borders. We simply out-populated them.
Click to expand...

I think the majority of the peoples we "stole it from" had no concept of land ownership until we came along and told them it was ours. Rough way to learn a concept, eh?

Edit - "We" means Europeans who settled and then sold out to the current USA
 
PaulS said:
Are "the items" really more affordable? I say no. Many of these companies moving their production overseas rarely lower their prices, these moves are done to increase margins. The real issue with the mentality above is that it results in 96+ million discouraged workers due to a tepid economy and 10 years of government buffoonery. Those people have very little money to spend on anything.

The old timers knew the deal. I grew up in a small blue collar city in Massachusetts. I was a kid in the '70s and my neighbor, a machinist at a machine tool company, loved to talk. One day he told me about groups of Chinese and Japanese visitors, engineers, being taken on tours through his factory with cameras. Some of these groups were led by none other than Sen. Ted Kennedy. Previously my neighbor had been telling me that his company and developed a machine and process that could grind an automotive camshaft consistenly with a 20 millionth of an inch ( 1/2 micron) tolerance, a feat previously not possible. He told me they were taking these groups through the factory, allowing them to take pictures of everything and going through, in detail, how they built these machines. He was bewildered at the stupidity of this and said it would be the end of the company. 20 years later it was, as these people began dumping machine tools on the US market and put the US tool makers out of business.

So no, I don't care if Walmart, the company that used to market its products as Made in the USA, can't buy Chinese junk, and much of it is junk. I'm happy that we have someone who is at least trying get us a fair shake in the world and bring jobs back here. You should be too.
Click to expand...
The same bs happened at our local steel plant of 5500 workers. Along with most of our coal jobs we lost all of those steel jobs except for 120 at present. Now you know one of many reasons why we voted for Trump.
 
RV10flyer said:
The same bs happened at our local steel plant of 5500 workers. Along with most of our coal jobs we lost all of those steel jobs except for 120 at present. Now you know one of many reasons why we voted for Trump.
Click to expand...

My wife's uncle was a career man at Bethlehem Steel. His take was that essentially the steel industry was an oligopoly that refused to make the investments to keep the domestic industry competitive. He ended up working his last few years at Sears before retirement. He was less bitter toward the offshore producers than was toward management that took the big payouts and let the industry die.

He had a few choice things to say about Sears too...
 
Ravioli said:
I think the majority of the peoples we "stole it from" had no concept of land ownership until we came along and told them it was ours. Rough way to learn a concept, eh?

Edit - "We" means Europeans who settled and then sold out to the current USA
Click to expand...
What's this "we" ****, white man? ;)
 
RV10flyer said:
The same bs happened at our local steel plant of 5500 workers. Along with most of our coal jobs we lost all of those steel jobs except for 120 at present. Now you know one of many reasons why we voted for Trump.
Click to expand...
Are they expecting the same jobs to be returning?
 
weilke said:
We have tariffs on chinese tires and french cheese for years yet both are available in the US market.
Click to expand...

Actually, it's pretty difficult to find French cheese in the US. Most cheese sold, even if they use protected origin names such as Roquefort (US doesn't respect protected origin trademarks), is US produced.
 
Everskyward said:
Are they expecting the same jobs to be returning?
Click to expand...

It could happen, maybe.

Cheap energy makes a lot of production possible. Coal is cheap, plentiful, and dirty. Steel mills, aluminum, and similar, require a lot of energy. We've had a policy in DC the last 8 years that wasn't shy about wanting to put coal out of business and go "clean" instead. Solar and wind don't cut it - too expensive. Foreign steel producers are happy to fill the gap.

Natural gas, oil, and coal are relatively cheap and plentiful in the US. Nuclear is an option. Coal is probably on the way out on its own, a natural death, but I don't think it deserves to be shut down by DC.
 
Matthew said:
It could happen, maybe.
Click to expand...
If I was in the coal or steel industry I wouldn't be holding my breath, any more than I would expect the aviation industry to revert to the 1960s.
 
The thing about those expensive wind and solar energy sources is that they create jobs that can't be offshored in terms of installation and maintenance, even if the panels and turbines are. I think I remember seeing somewhere that the solar industry currently employs more people than the coal industry ever has, and market penetration is still in it's early stages. Cost-effective storage batteries will revolutionize that industry.

Nucor Steel is US based, uses mini-mills and is the 3rd largest steel producer in the world. Very profitable, stock's up 125% over the lat 5 years. Strictly non-union shop though.
 
Last edited:
Everskyward said:
Are they expecting the same jobs to be returning?
Click to expand...

No, not all of them, but some would be nice. We CAN teach old dogs new tricks. If our people learned the skills to make steel and mine coal, surely we can teach them to make specialty plastics and solar panels(Just an example). I love our area of the country here in OH, WV, KY, but it has been a rough 7 years for this HVAC contractor, and many around us. Since 1997, I have watched the "Made in USA" labels disappear on almost every single part of our HVAC equipment and supplies. I have watched my costs increase 3-5% per year, CEO's pay skyrocket, while the average American workers' pay stagnate. I am willing to relocate, but just hanging on as long as we can. We are hoping new tax laws, less regulation and the building/repair of infrastructure will bring some jobs back. Buy Goodman HVAC equipment if you can. It is the only one still "Assembled in the USA".
 
RV10flyer said:
No, not all of them, but some would be nice. We CAN teach old dogs new tricks. If our people learned the skills to make steel and mine coal, surely we can teach them to make specialty plastics and solar panels(Just an example). I love our area of the country here in OH, WV, KY, but it has been a rough 7 years for this HVAC contractor, and many around us. Since 1997, I have watched the "Made in USA" labels disappear on almost every single part of our HVAC equipment and supplies. I have watched my costs increase 3-5% per year, CEO's pay skyrocket, while the average American workers' pay stagnate. I am willing to relocate, but just hanging on as long as we can. We are hoping new tax laws, less regulation and the building/repair of infrastructure will bring some jobs back. Buy Goodman HVAC equipment if you can. It is the only one still "Assembled in the USA".
Click to expand...
I think it's a great idea to teach the people to do different things. But why wasn't that done before? Sometimes I think people spend too much time longing for the past and trying to get it back rather than moving ahead.
 
Everskyward said:
I think it's a great idea to teach the people to do different things. But why wasn't that done before? Sometimes I think people spend too much time longing for the past and trying to get it back rather than moving ahead.
Click to expand...
Making stuff is important to an economy, cheap affordable energy is important to an economy. No one is longing for 1970's machine tool companies to open back up, or old steel plants to restart BUT certainly build the next I phone here or the next personal space ship, whatever it is. We have trade agreements now that put domestic production at a severe disadvantage while ignoring one of the major beneficiary's criminal manipulation of its currency and flagrant disregard of intellectual property rights to totally crush us domestically. On top of that we've allowed unelected bureaucracies to write 10s of thousands of regulations that essentially become laws that further make us uncompetitive and hobble whole markets. When it takes over a year to permit a new factory something is wrong with us. Regulations are fine, but they should be voted on by congress to become law, otherwise they should be regarded as suggestions.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top