150 Crash New Bedford MA

Mike Smith said:
I’m pretty sure this poster is plenty qualified to speak to both the flying and the clinical.
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If he just diagnosed a pilot he never met, let alone sat down with professionally, he’s a quack.
 
dbahn said:
Behavior before suicide runs the gamut, and it isn't always rational.

I'm not sure what having flown a 150 has to do with it but yes, I learned in one and then right after getting the PP cert I took a 10 hour aerobatics course in a 150 Aerobat.
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Being familiar with the interior dimensions of a 150 would help form the hypothesis that a 74 year old male, who possibly experienced a physically incapacitating malady while airborne, would have very little room to writhe, squirm, spasm, rigor, or otherwise convulse, contract or react to extreme discomfort within said airplane without effecting any input on the yoke. ;)

Let's suppose he suffered some emergency, like a ruptured aortic aneurysm, in flight, which would cause a pilot all sorts of pain, discomfort, and struggling to fly an airplane. We can discount airframe and engine failure as the root cause(s) of this crash because the video quite clearly shows an airplane producing power and maneuvering at high speed, albeit in an erratic manner.

No, suicide isn't rational. You're 100% correct on that part. :(
 
Mike Smith said:
You’re so FOS.
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Not exactly, making a bold claim like your buddy did, with ZERO knowledge of the airman is quackery, and if he has a MD after his name he should know better, I know lots of docs are garbage, however I would expect better from a VT guy, especially if he worked UVMC
 
James331 said:
Soooo that 10hr “aerobatics” course... that gets you into the head of a pilot who you never met?

You should call the NTSB and save them some time
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LOL. No. The facts that have been presented give me an option to "guess" (my exact wording) that suicide is the most likely explanation. Other guesses include pilot incapacitation, control failure, and aerobatics gone wrong. Do you have to have experienced one of those to be qualified to guess what happened in this case????

The NTSB has no interest in guesses, mine or theirs. I don't see how my experience in a C150 has anything to do with this topic. That was only a response to a seemingly irrelevant question about whether I had ever flown one.
 
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dbahn said:
LOL. No. The facts that have been presented give me an option to "guess" (my exact wording) that suicide is the most likely explanation. Other guesses include pilot incapacitation, control failure, and aerobatics gone wrong. Do you have to have experienced one of those to be qualified to guess what happened in this case????

The NTSB has no interest in guesses, mine or theirs. I don't see how my experience in a C150 has anything to do with this topic. That was only a response to a seemingly irrelevant question about whether I had ever flown one.
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I’d wager I have more flying experience than you, and I wouldn’t even venture to guess on that one, let alone play empath and guess what was in a man’s mind whom I have never even seen before.
 
James331 said:
I’d wager I have more flying experience than you . . .
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And that has exactly WHAT relevance in this discussion?

I have over 100 hours and have been flying for more than a year. Can't I speculate like some of the other posters?????

Let's not make this a chest thumping contest.
 
dbahn said:
And that has exactly WHAT relevance in this discussion?

I have over 100 hours and have been flying for more than a year. Can't I speculate like some of the other posters?????

Let's not make this a chest thumping contest.
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It’s not chest thumping, go read the killing zone, it’s getting to the point you understand that there is still TONS that you don’t understand.
 
James331 said:
It’s not chest thumping, go read the killing zone, it’s getting to the point you understand that there is still TONS that you don’t understand.
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I read that years ago and enjoyed reviewing the case studies, but I don't agree with the author's conclusion that a "killing zone" (as he postulates) even exists. Experienced pilots and newbies have all been making seemingly stupid mistakes since the dawn of aviation, and the mistakes are remarkably similar for experienced pilots and newbies.

"Understanding" and "guessing" are two very substantially different concepts. Please note my use of the word "guessing" in my first post in this thread.

Does your experience as a pilot qualify you to make a judgment that I am a "quack" as a physician?
 
As you get more experience you see it more.

And frankly a experienced pilot wouldn’t even attempt to guess on that one, a good pilot wouldn’t guess on any of them.


Yesterday my mom called me up, read me some letter I sent my grandma when I was <10, it sounded like silly kid talk, I joked with my mom, laughing “why did you let me send grandma such a stupid letter” my mom said you were just a kid and grandma enjoyed it.

As a instructor you should see that type of thing in your students, no?
 
James331 said:
And frankly a experienced pilot wouldn’t even attempt to guess on that one, a good pilot wouldn’t guess on any of them.
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Well, I guess that means I'm neither of those.

But aren't you also just guessing that I'm a quack? Is that based on your experience as a good, experienced PILOT?

I don't plan to bring my Mom into this conversation. ;)
 
James331 said:
It’s not chest thumping, go read the killing zone, it’s getting to the point you understand that there is still TONS that you don’t understand.
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You reference the Killing Zone ??? The math in that book that the author bases his assumptions, if you even can refer to such poor use of numbers as "math", is downright laughable.
 
Absolutely. If you loved flying you would want to do something that was familiar and routine. A preflight allowed this person to go through, one last time, something that they enjoyed. Of course this is assuming there was a pre-disposition to take their own life. Which at this point is 100% pure speculation and unfounded by any evidence.
 
Just guessing based on nothing concrete, that someone flew into the ground with the intent of committing suicide, is a terrible conclusion to come to, regardless of what they do for a job. I'm a Radiologist, and instead of taking a wild guess regarding a patient, I look at their MRI, X-ray, or other tangible information, and that is with them standing right in front of me.
 
Were that an aerobatic airplane I might guess at a wingover gone wrong. But a 150 will recover from just about anything by pulling your hands off the yoke, and he had plenty of room. I don't see even a hint of recovery or leveling off. Even were he slumped over the yoke the airplane would level off some as it picked up speed, those yoke forces can get pretty strong. I find it hard to believe that this experienced pilot flew into controlled airspace, started doing an aerobatic maneuver, chose that moment to suffer an incapacitating medical condition, and then slumped over on the yoke so hard that even the stick forces of a power dive couldn't dislodge him.

I'm with Dave on this one. Don't have to be an English Professor to read the writing on the wall.
 
steingar said:
Were that an aerobatic airplane I might guess at a wingover gone wrong. But a 150 will recover from just about anything by pulling your hands off the yoke, and he had plenty of room. I don't see even a hint of recovery or leveling off. Even were he slumped over the yoke the airplane would level off some as it picked up speed, those yoke forces can get pretty strong. I find it hard to believe that this experienced pilot flew into controlled airspace, started doing an aerobatic maneuver, chose that moment to suffer an incapacitating medical condition, and then slumped over on the yoke so hard that even the stick forces of a power dive couldn't dislodge him.

I'm with Dave on this one. Don't have to be an English Professor to read the writing on the wall.
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If the airplane goes into a spiral, as it looks like this one did, yoke forces are nothing. The spiral tightens and the dive steepens. It's the common killer in VFR into IMC crashes. The pilot notices nothing other than increasing G forces and lots of wind noise.
 
Shuswap BC said:
Just guessing based on nothing concrete, that someone flew into the ground with the intent of committing suicide, is a terrible conclusion to come to, regardless of what they do for a job. I'm a Radiologist, and instead of taking a wild guess regarding a patient, I look at their MRI, X-ray, or other tangible information, and that is with them standing right in front of me.
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I get that, but a guess is not a conclusion. It's a guess, along with the other explanations offered previously, none of which have any consequence other than opening up possible explanations. I wouldn't want a radiologist to guess at something and call it a conclusion either. Since others have already speculated about pilot incapacitation, aerobatic error, and control failure do we ban a thought of suicide because that would be a "terrible conclusion"????
 
Dan Thomas said:
If the airplane goes into a spiral, as it looks like this one did, yoke forces are nothing. The spiral tightens and the dive steepens. It's the common killer in VFR into IMC crashes. The pilot notices nothing other than increasing G forces and lots of wind noise.
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True, but there's no evidence of turning in the video and turning is an essential component of a spiral dive. The G forces can only be caused by increasing angle of attack but neither turning nor changing angle of attack are apparent in the video, which also shows that it was VMC at the time.

And I don't agree that "yoke forces are nothing" in a spiral dive. Pulling back on the yoke is an essential component of a spiral dive and is typically caused by the illusion that the plane diving in a level attitude, causing the pilot to pull back on the yoke. The first step in recovery from a spiral dive after power reduction is to level the wings, and if that's all you do the plane will rapidly pitch upward, so you actually also need to keep some forward pressure on the yoke to avoid a sudden pitch up and a cycle of corrections. It's hard to accidentally get into a spiral dive in VMC, though.
 
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Dan Thomas said:
If the airplane goes into a spiral, as it looks like this one did, yoke forces are nothing. The spiral tightens and the dive steepens. It's the common killer in VFR into IMC crashes. The pilot notices nothing other than increasing G forces and lots of wind noise.
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I see no evidence of rotation. And even if it did, all the pilot had to do was release the yoke and the airplane would have quickly righted itself. The difference between yourself and me is I've been in this EXACT situation, a cross controlled stall turning into an incipient spin, and at about the same altitude. I can tell you that the stick forces become strong, but the airplane is easily righted. Were it that big a deal I wouldn't be writing this, as my little hiccup occurred not long after I got my license.

Sorry, the only way I see what happened in the video occurring is if the pilot did it intentionally. Nothing else really fits. I suspect he did it over a cemetery on purpose, to avoid hurting someone on the ground. I bet cash money when they investigate the pilot they'll find a terminal diagnosis, or something bad happened recently.
 
steingar said:
I bet cash money when they investigate the pilot they'll find a terminal diagnosis, or something bad happened recently.
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They might also find nothing - no pre-impact structural or control failure, no pre-impact medical cause, and no underlying known mental or physical diagnosis. If that ends up being the case we're left with a video that demands an aerodynamic explanation. A plane being flown straight into the ground with no evasive actions has the profile of a suicidal act.

I agree that it's all speculations at this point, and suicide is just one of those.
 
Does anyone know if his ex recently came back into his life?



Read that with humor everyone.
 
dbahn said:
Well, I guess that means I'm neither of those.

But aren't you also just guessing that I'm a quack? Is that based on your experience as a good, experienced PILOT?

I don't plan to bring my Mom into this conversation. ;)
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No, I based that on you saying his dude offed himself having never seen/spoken to him.
 
Weekend Warrior said:
You reference the Killing Zone ??? The math in that book that the author bases his assumptions, if you even can refer to such poor use of numbers as "math", is downright laughable.
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Perhaps, but their conclusions for much of it match reality.
 
Mike Smith said:
Not sure if you’re being obtuse or stupid. One or the other.
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I’m stating facts.

If he’s actually a doc and making medical statements, which unless he’s also a shrink seems out of his speciality, that’s not a good sign.

Especially on a case like this one where little to nothing is known, aviation wise I got nada smart I could say based on what little was released, and that’s as a ATP/CFI, now to get into the man’s head? Give me a break.
 
James331 said:
Perhaps, but their conclusions for much of it match reality.
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No. The conclusions, when the numbers are properly analyzed, don’t hold up at all. The author Paul Craig uses his flawed math to supposedly calculate from data the "killing zone" of when a general aviation pilot most likely will die while flying...problem is, Craig forgets that ALL general aviation pilots quit flying at some time. So, Craig's assertion that a pilot will most likely die from an aviation accident which occurs before that pilot reaches 350 hours, by looking at the hours a pilot has when crashing by simply counting yearly accidents. Craig DOES NOT factor in the fact that some pilots quit flying before ever reaching 100, 200, 300, etc hours in his calculations. Of course, once you factor in the fact that pilots are constantly removing themselves from the pilot pool, then one will see that there is no "killing zone" as Craig asserts (the drop one finds in accidents as pilots reach 500, or more, hours is simply because most general aviation pilots NEVER REACH these hours in their lifetime, thereby reducing the yearly accidents that 500+ hour pilots have).
Craig makes other errors in further calculations of general aviation safety (for example, he claims GA flying is 10 times more risky than driving, which has been shown by many experts to be no where near as bad as Craig claims).
 
Maybe for hobby pilots.

I’ve found the 500-1450hr guys can be a real pain with egos you’d expect from a astronaut
 
James331 said:
I’m stating facts.

If he’s actually a doc and making medical statements, which unless he’s also a shrink seems out of his speciality, that’s not a good sign.

Especially on a case like this one where little to nothing is known, aviation wise I got nada smart I could say based on what little was released, and that’s as a ATP/CFI, now to get into the man’s head? Give me a break.
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My speculation about suicide has absolutely nothing to do with getting into his head and has nothing to do with me being a doctor. It's based entirely on the viewing of the video showing an intact airplane being flown straight into the ground from a relatively high altitude without rolling, turning, or changing angle of attack with increasing airspeed in the dive. The absence of any of those is an indication of positive control rather than loss of control.
 
dbahn said:
My speculation about suicide has absolutely nothing to do with getting into his head and has nothing to do with me being a doctor. It's based entirely on the viewing of the video showing an intact airplane being flown straight into the ground from a relatively high altitude without rolling, turning, or changing angle of attack with increasing airspeed in the dive. The absence of any of those is an indication of positive control rather than loss of control.
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Welp call the NTSB and save the tax payers some money from their checks, dbhan has got this one all sorted out boys, call it a day and go home lol
 
74, that's so young.
 
dbahn said:
My speculation about suicide has absolutely nothing to do with getting into his head and has nothing to do with me being a doctor. It's based entirely on the viewing of the video showing an intact airplane being flown straight into the ground from a relatively high altitude without rolling, turning, or changing angle of attack with increasing airspeed in the dive. The absence of any of those is an indication of positive control rather than loss of control.
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That was also a speculation of mine, from the same evidence.
 
dbahn said:
LOL.

Who's getting into whose head? :rolleyes:
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You seem to know the cause of a accident, the NTSB always says if you know what happened give them a call...


Weekend Warrior said:
Now that I agree with.
William Knecht did a much better job of looking at the hours-vs-accidents statistics and found the “killing zone” is probably from 0 to 2000 hours:

https://www.researchgate.net/public..._accident_rates_from_pilot_total_flight_hours
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I do think the low time student pilots are VERY safe in the limited role they PIC, I’d say up to a couple hundred too, then it seems you get that false sense of being a air god, till you get some more hours and realize there will probably all be more you don’t know than do know given all the facets to aviation vs the rather short effective life span of a human.
 
Kenny Phillips said:
That was also a speculation of mine, from the same evidence.
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And you (like me) didn't need to "get into his head" either. The existing evidence is highly suggestive on an intentional act, making a guess that suicide was the "most likely" perfectly logical.

All of these other references to medical credentials, psychiatry degrees, hours flown in a C150, level of experience, "diagnosing a pilot", etc. etc. is just fluff. If the speculation was based on why the pilot might have committed suicide then I'd agree that's trying to get into his head. I don't see a single statement from anyone that suggests that approach.

James331 said:
You seem to know the cause of a accident, the NTSB always says if you know what happened give them a call...
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There you go again, trying to get into my head. I don't know the cause, and the NTSB already has the same evidence that I do.

Maybe someone should call them and tell them NOT to consider suicide as a possibility. ;)
 
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dbahn said:
And you didn't need to "get into his head" either. The existing evidence is highly suggestive on an intentional act, making a guess that suicide was the "most likely" perfectly logical.

All of these other references to medical credentials, psychiatry degrees, hours flown in a C150, level of experience, "diagnosing a pilot", etc. etc. is just fluff. If the speculation was based on why the pilot might have committed suicide then I'd agree that's trying to get into his head. I don't see a single statement from anyone that suggests that approach.



There you go again, trying to get into my head. I don't know the cause, and the NTSB already has the same evidence that I do.

Maybe someone should call them and tell them NOT to consider suicide as a possibility. ;)
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I’m just reading the words you wrote, maybe that getting into your head, not sure. But you and that pilot never even had the level of exchange that we are having right now
 
James331 said:
I’m just reading the words you wrote, maybe that getting into your head, not sure. But you and that pilot never even had the level of exchange that we are having right now
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Huh????

See if my edited version clears that up. I don't know what pilot you're talking about concerning "level of exchange".
 
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