100LL price killing GA

And yet the parts for my 1945 Willys Jeep keep getting cheaper! MURICA!!!
 
$3.99 at our field but it was $3.35 for like a year before they went up.

Several fields around $3.50 a gallon.

But yeah, plenty of places still above $5 as well. The higher cost has little to do with demand at the production level. The airports are getting it fairly cheaply. The local airport manger here told me their book price is around $2.50-2.75 gallon (that was about 6 months ago). Any airport that's charging $5 a gallon is making several dollars a gallon off each sale.

I will point out that the OPer is the same guy who makes a new thread every few months telling us how GA is on death's door and why. So he's probably trolling as much as wanting a real discussion.
 
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Bonchie said:
I will point out that the OPer is the same guy who makes a new thread every few months telling us how GA is on death's door and why. So he's probably trolling as much as wanting a real discussion.
Click to expand...

:yeahthat:
 
If fuel price gives you heartburn then you should give up flying. Everything connected to aviation is costly, especially fuel if you fly much. And these prices can easily double from here since oil prices are low right now.
 
citizen5000 said:
If fuel price gives you heartburn then you should give up flying. Everything connected to aviation is costly, especially fuel if you fly much. And these prices can easily double from here since oil prices are low right now.
Click to expand...

Doesn't mean we can't complain about them...
 
Fuel at $4 is about 30% of the cost of flying a Cessna 172 or other similar (using $120 per hour and 9gph).

For a car that gets 20mpg and $2 gas, fuel is 25% of the cost (using $.40 per mile to run a car)
 
Avgas is about par, adjusted for inflation, with 1980s ppg.
 
$3.09 ethanol free unleaded from a nearby field, $40/hr in maintenance and other running costs. I'm not complaining.
 
I started to type up a rant about Americans' need for consumer debt and massive mortgages well above 25% of income, as being a much bigger factor in GA being stagnant than any of the costs inside of GA...

But I listened to someone interview people today and ask them if they had a written household budget, and none did. Not one.

It's difficult to explain it to that crowd. The crowd that on average carries $20,000+ per household of consumer debt on top of cars and housing.

Attack debt, my friends. Attack it like it's killing you and everything you always wanted to be. Because it is. You're paying for someone else's life dreams via the interest. Because they understand the simple math.

The economy is in a lot better shape than folks think because they signed up for slavery so long ago, they forgot why. The house has bathrooms and kitchens fit for royalty. The cars in the driveway purr and run perfect and never leak a drop. The kids have on all the right clothes and fashions. Dad has a fancy watch and a garage full of toys. Mom has two closets of clothes and a shoe collection Imelda Marcos would envy.

And they're still not happy. And they don't have enough coin left at the end of the month to come to the airport and learn to fly in a beat up old 1970s Cessna, let alone a fancy Cirrus.

$5/gallon. Who cares? I see co-workers waste that much on fast food every single day. I could fill the long range tanks of the 182 with any two random co-worker's lunch budgets. You pick. It won't matter. Throw in their Starbucks habits for some of them, and I could fuel the Seminole full once a week. Easy.
 
so....who has an extra $1,000-2,000/mo to put towards flying lessons? Dat is the problum. o_O
 
For those that are complaining about fuel prices, you should travel to other parts of the world and check out how much fuel costs there per liter!
 
I gotta agree with Nate. Consumer debt is killing the American dream unless you own a bank and reap the profits from the interest the suckers are paying. The "We gotta have this" attitudes drive consumers into debtor's prison before they begin to realize it. "I can put on my plastic" is fine if you can pay the bill in full when it comes due. If you can't, you may be adding as much as 25% to what you just "had to have". You're not going to accumulate wealth doing that. My parents survived the Great Depression and were very frugal. Notice I didn't say "cheap". They spent their money wisely and saved for things they would like to have and bought it when the cash was available. Dad never even financed a car.

I'm pretty much cut from the same mold. I don't buy things I can't write a check for when the bill comes in. Do I need to "keep up with the Jonses"? NOPE. If they can't accept me for who I am they are not friends.
 
Costs for equipment is worse than the fuel, partly due to dis-economies of scale and partly certification, and partly liability. One can put in a full glass IFR system with autopilot on a experimental plane for $30-40k. It costs that much for a G600 or STEC 55x autopilot on a certified plane. There aren't that many experimental planes, so it's not all dis-economies of scale. Engine rebuilds that cost $25k-45k? Those engines aren't exactly rocket science.
 
Norman said:
I gotta agree with Nate. Consumer debt is killing the American dream ...
Click to expand...

^ This is definitely a problem. Here's how big of a problem it is:

A majority of Americans can't cover a $1,000 emergency expense
According to a study released last week by the Associated Press and NORC at the University of Chicago, a surprisingly large number of households, even higher-income households, would struggle to pay a $1,000 bill if an emergency arose. AP-NORC's poll showed that 75% of households making less than $50,000 couldn't pay a $1,000 emergency expense. What's more, the number of households unable to cover a $1,000 bill shrinks minimally to 67% for those with annual incomes of between $50,000 and $100,000. Even in households bringing in more than $100,000 annually, 3 in 8 suggested they'd struggle to scrape together $1,000.​

That's scary.
 
And the "gotta have it" debt machine is driven by the consumer marketing side which is "necessary" to keep the economy growing no matter the cost.

"If you're not buying the terrorists win!"

When I was a lad, back in the dark ages of the 1960's, a 3 bedroom, 1 bath house with a carport was the American dream home that people aspired to and were happy with. My parents built theirs (my dad & grandfather both working in construction so it made sense) in 1959/1960. And they paid it off in 20 years and KEPT IT. I'm getting it ready to go on the market now since my dad died and my mom is living with us. No McMansion, 5 BR, 3 1/2 bath, 3 car garage, etc. While there is a segment of the population that would be happy with that today, most are "movin' on up". With the debt that goes along with it.

But consumer demand drives SALES. And we must grow the economy! If sales aren't growing, we're sunk! Or so the reasoning goes...

Maybe I'd better cut back on the coffee...
John
 
brien23 said:
Auto gas has been down a long time now and 100LL still is over $5 a gal, is the high price of 100LL killing GA. Everything in GA seems to be going up at a faster rate than most other consumer goods, sticker shock on replacement parts for aircraft. If you have a Bonanza they seem to be leading the race to the top of price for parts. How many more hits can GA take before people bail and those left are stuck with something they can't sell, as people have moved on to something else.
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Currently, fuel at my home airport is $3.80 a gallon (48X). That is not bad. If 100LL is killing GA then why hasn't there been a push for alternate fuels by AOPA, EAA...etc
 
The fuel is a small drop in the bucket. The ludicrous price for parts is what is killing them. 1400 for a choke cable? 400 for a wire to hook up a light? 40K for an engine rebuild? Come on now!

it really makes you think about it when you need to set aside 100 bucks every hour of flight to cover Mx issue down the line. If flying were in line with the cost of owning a boat or RV then it wouldn't be an issue but it is and it is a real issue.
 
wayne said:
^ This is definitely a problem. Here's how big of a problem it is:

A majority of Americans can't cover a $1,000 emergency expense
According to a study released last week by the Associated Press and NORC at the University of Chicago, a surprisingly large number of households, even higher-income households, would struggle to pay a $1,000 bill if an emergency arose. AP-NORC's poll showed that 75% of households making less than $50,000 couldn't pay a $1,000 emergency expense. What's more, the number of households unable to cover a $1,000 bill shrinks minimally to 67% for those with annual incomes of between $50,000 and $100,000. Even in households bringing in more than $100,000 annually, 3 in 8 suggested they'd struggle to scrape together $1,000.​

That's scary.
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I'd like to see the data associated with age and where they live. $100K in metro NYC is "get by" money. Kids just starting out with a family can be hard pressed even if they are frugal. If you're in your 50s and can't scrape two nickels together you have a problem.
 
Acrodustertoo said:
The fuel is a small drop in the bucket. The ludicrous price for parts is what is killing them. 1400 for a choke cable? 400 for a wire to hook up a light? 40K for an engine rebuild? Come on now!

it really makes you think about it when you need to set aside 100 bucks every hour of flight to cover Mx issue down the line. If flying were in line with the cost of owning a boat or RV then it wouldn't be an issue but it is and it is a real issue.
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$4000-5000 to put in a required radio that broadcasts your exact location to anyone listening ?
 
So flying was obviously more achievable for a larger portion of the public many years ago right? I have no idea how the cost of flying now compares to the old days adjusted for inflation, but I'll throw out the following:

How much did the average household pay for the following in the old days?:

Cable/Dish
Cell phones/Tablets/Data Plans
Multiple vehicles in the driveway
Computers/Internet Service/Various Gaming Devices
Eating out

I can tell you that when my parents were growing up, they had an antenna for the TV, no cell phones/tablets, no computers, and no need for internet service, had one car for the family, no x-boxes or playstations, and they rarely ate out or even bought junk at convenience store. Heck, my dad didn't even have an air conditioner in the house until he was a teenager, and there was probably only a single electrical outlet and a single light socket in each room of the house, so the electric bill was nearly nothing.
If we eliminated the stuff that we pay for now that previous generations didn't have, there would probably be whole lot of folks that could afford to fly.

I'm not saying that's the whole problem, but it must be part of it.
 
OkieFlyer said:
How much did the average household pay for the following in the old days?:

Cable/Dish
Cell phones/Tablets/Data Plans
Multiple vehicles in the driveway
Computers/Internet Service/Various Gaming Devices
Eating out

...

I'm not saying that's the whole problem, but it must be part of it.
Click to expand...

And that leaves out servicing the debt of stuff acquired. Most people find they have to kill ALL of the above or severely limit them just to pay off the debts, and THEN they have some wiggle room.
 
It's a lot easier to fly when you don't care about nice cars and have no debt.

We have a 2007 impala. It works just fine and we have an extra $500 a month in the bank account we wouldn't have if we bought that new $30k car everyone thinks they need.
 
OkieFlyer said:
How much did the average household pay for the following in the old days?:

Cable/Dish
Cell phones/Tablets/Data Plans
Multiple vehicles in the driveway
Computers/Internet Service/Various Gaming Devices
Eating out

I can tell you that when my parents were growing up, they had an antenna for the TV, no cell phones/tablets, no computers, and no need for internet service, had one car for the family, no x-boxes or playstations, and they rarely ate out or even bought junk at convenience store. Heck, my dad didn't even have an air conditioner in the house until he was a teenager, and there was probably only a single electrical outlet and a single light socket in each room of the house, so the electric bill was nearly nothing.
If we eliminated the stuff that we pay for now that previous generations didn't have, there would probably be whole lot of folks that could afford to fly.

I'm not saying that's the whole problem, but it must be part of it.
Click to expand...
I agree. The problem is kinda value after all.

Who wants to give up their cell phone? You can't go back once you've tasted the "I'm out to lunch, I have a question, I'll open google right now and find out". Most want to keep that.

When I was young, you would have a question people around you didn't know, so you'd wait to go to the library on the weekend. Then the internet happened, and if you had a question, the moment you got home you could use Alta Vista or Yahoo or whatever the devil an Alta Vista is anyway, point is, we used computers and found our answers. Now you find the answer right now, and we still say that we hate Verizon or T-Mobile or whoever because it wasn't as immediate as you desired (thanks Louis CK).

I'd also like to add "child care" and "doing stuff with the kids" to the list. Both can have (potentially) more value than aviation. "Child care", one potentially has to do.

As for doing stuff with kids, on any given Saturday, we can go swimming at the community center, play in the play area, have a turkey sandwich, then go home and ride bikes to the park; or we can go fly somewhere, which is only fun for the pilot after a few runs. I'm not saying it's not enjoyable to the passengers, it's beautiful and fun and all that; but seriously I'm the only one having fun during the flight, 'cuz I get to fly the thing.

The day at the pool with sandwiches is seriously under fifty bucks, happy family. A flight at $130/hour for 2.5 hours is $325, family is moderately entertained, but really just wants to get somewhere and do the thing we're flying somewhere to do.

So fifty bucks, we've all had a good time and we're fed; or $325 just to go to the place where we can have fun. I get outvoted every time. Plus I can't afford much $325 "just to get there" fun, but I can afford $50 to have fun with the family.

It's hard to justify the costly fun.

Sorry, wasn't this about 100LL? My bad.
 
The cost of 100LL is what it is. I drive a 1976 pickup, Th Ol Lady drives the new car, a 1985 Pontiac. The only debt that I have is the house payment, (that won't last much longer) The rest is the "gotta haves" (food,lights, phone, property tax, and insurance). So I can feed the airplane a decent meal from time to time and keep it happy. I'd love to have a hanger for it, but just can't see forking out $375/mo for it, so I keep the insurance paid up.
 
Along the lines of discussion of consumer debt...

Fed has raised rates at their last two meetings.

Doesn't move the needle too much on folks even at that median $20,000 in credit card debt, individually, unless they're paying minimums forever. Then is more than a few thousand bucks per.

But the aggregate is one heck of a nice raise for bankers. Same bankers who pushed the overnight rates to zero by creating the housing crisis.

Obviously I don't have any effect on my personal finances (no loans on variable rate terms) but I bet it popped a large number of folks who carry debt on variable terms at high rates, for a number of thousands of dollars and they don't even know it.
 
denverpilot said:
Along the lines of discussion of consumer debt...

Fed has raised rates at their last two meetings.

Doesn't move the needle too much on folks even at that median $20,000 in credit card debt, individually, unless they're paying minimums forever. Then is more than a few thousand bucks per.

But the aggregate is one heck of a nice raise for bankers. Same bankers who pushed the overnight rates to zero by creating the housing crisis.

Obviously I don't have any effect on my personal finances (no loans on variable rate terms) but I bet it popped a large number of folks who carry debt on variable terms at high rates, for a number of thousands of dollars and they don't even know it.
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It cuts both ways, most of the variable interest debt that consumers have is unsecured, so if the monthly payment goes up too much then people stop paying. So, there theatrically could be a situation where the interest received from the rates moving higher is offset by non performing accounts.

Then some of that credit could have rate floors and it may take a 100 basis point move in LIBOR, Fed Rate, etc to make the payments go higher.
 
brien23 said:
Auto gas has been down a long time now and 100LL still is over $5 a gal, is the high price of 100LL killing GA. Everything in GA seems to be going up at a faster rate than most other consumer goods, sticker shock on replacement parts for aircraft. If you have a Bonanza they seem to be leading the race to the top of price for parts. How many more hits can GA take before people bail and those left are stuck with something they can't sell, as people have moved on to something else.
Click to expand...

Avgas prices are not killing GA. if for no other reason than GA is not dying. It is shrinking, but it is not dying. Last year, approximately 17,000 new private tickets and 400 new sport ratings were earned, a number that has been pretty much constant over the last five years. As I and a number of others have noted, there is a large group of private and sports pilots between the ages of 50 and 70, who are aging out of flying, and the group that will replace them is not as large. There's no reason to think general aviation is going to disappear.


OkieFlyer said:
So flying was obviously more achievable for a larger portion of the public many years ago right? I have no idea how the cost of flying now compares to the old days adjusted for inflation, but I'll throw out the following:

How much did the average household pay for the following in the old days?:

Cable/Dish
Cell phones/Tablets/Data Plans
Multiple vehicles in the driveway
Computers/Internet Service/Various Gaming Devices
Eating out

I can tell you that when my parents were growing up, they had an antenna for the TV, no cell phones/tablets, no computers, and no need for internet service, had one car for the family, no x-boxes or playstations, and they rarely ate out or even bought junk at convenience store. Heck, my dad didn't even have an air conditioner in the house until he was a teenager, and there was probably only a single electrical outlet and a single light socket in each room of the house, so the electric bill was nearly nothing.
If we eliminated the stuff that we pay for now that previous generations didn't have, there would probably be whole lot of folks that could afford to fly.

I'm not saying that's the whole problem, but it must be part of it.
Click to expand...

Yes, there are a few things available that were not when GA flying was at its peak in the early 1980s. More importantly, housing, education, and health care have become vastly more expensive than they were back then. I'm looking at one of the houses I grew up in, it is a 3 br 1.5 ba house in a pleasant if not particularly upscale Chicago suburb, 1400 sq ft on an 8500 sq ft lot. That house most recently sold two years ago for $300,000. If you put $50,000 down , just the principal and interest would be $1700 per month, throw in something for taxes and insurance, and you're probably looking at $25,000 per year for housing, excluding maintenance and repairs. Median household income in that location is around $71,000. After taxes, employee's share of health insurance, and hopefully a 401k contribution, that family would be left with maybe $55,000 net. That's $30,000 for everything else, cars, medical copay, going to the dentist, food, home repairs, going to visit Grandma.. you know the drill.

I figure I could rent a 30 year old Skyhawk for about 45 hours a year and would spend about $6500 doing it. Unless you are a single person, no way you are going to use up $6500 of your $30,000 on a hobby that is pretty much just for one member.

StevieTimes said:
I agree. The problem is kinda value after all.

Who wants to give up their cell phone? You can't go back once you've tasted the "I'm out to lunch, I have a question, I'll open google right now and find out". Most want to keep that.

When I was young, you would have a question people around you didn't know, so you'd wait to go to the library on the weekend. Then the internet happened, and if you had a question, the moment you got home you could use Alta Vista or Yahoo or whatever the devil an Alta Vista is anyway, point is, we used computers and found our answers. Now you find the answer right now, and we still say that we hate Verizon or T-Mobile or whoever because it wasn't as immediate as you desired (thanks Louis CK).

I'd also like to add "child care" and "doing stuff with the kids" to the list. Both can have (potentially) more value than aviation. "Child care", one potentially has to do.

As for doing stuff with kids, on any given Saturday, we can go swimming at the community center, play in the play area, have a turkey sandwich, then go home and ride bikes to the park; or we can go fly somewhere, which is only fun for the pilot after a few runs. I'm not saying it's not enjoyable to the passengers, it's beautiful and fun and all that; but seriously I'm the only one having fun during the flight, 'cuz I get to fly the thing.

The day at the pool with sandwiches is seriously under fifty bucks, happy family. A flight at $130/hour for 2.5 hours is $325, family is moderately entertained, but really just wants to get somewhere and do the thing we're flying somewhere to do.

So fifty bucks, we've all had a good time and we're fed; or $325 just to go to the place where we can have fun. I get outvoted every time. Plus I can't afford much $325 "just to get there" fun, but I can afford $50 to have fun with the family.

It's hard to justify the costly fun.

Sorry, wasn't this about 100LL? My bad.
Click to expand...

I used the $6500 figure for an annual rental budget for two reasons. First is that if you fly much less than that your proficiency will suffer, and second, that's about what we spend as a family on our boat. We bought a new 21' bowrider last year, and keep it in dry stack storage. We used it approximately 12 times last year (lost count), put 50 hours on the engine which translates to about 60 hours on the water. Our total expenses for the year came out to about $6500, and that's doing it the most expensive way possible with a new boat and dry stack storage. If you bought a late model used boat and kept it on a trailer at your house, you'd probably be looking at $2500.

The big difference is that the whole family loves the boat, and wouldn't be interested in being flown around in an airplane. If you're going to spend a lot of the family budget on a recreational item, it needs to be something everyone enjoys.

There are some other issues that limit the popularity of GA flying that have nothing to do with cost. When I was growing up, moms didn't generally work, and now many of them do. That means that there's less free time, and things that used to get done on the weeknights now get pushed to the weekend. One of the things a family might do with their airplane would be to go away for the weekend. I can tell you from my experience that won't happen very often, on Friday night we're more interesting in resting than going anywhere, and loading up to get out of town sounds more like hassle than fun. The other issue is that aviation is taken for granted by most people, and even if you could get the price down to where more people could afford it, most aren't going to be interested.
 
midcap said:
It cuts both ways, most of the variable interest debt that consumers have is unsecured, so if the monthly payment goes up too much then people stop paying. So, there theatrically could be a situation where the interest received from the rates moving higher is offset by non performing accounts.

Then some of that credit could have rate floors and it may take a 100 basis point move in LIBOR, Fed Rate, etc to make the payments go higher.
Click to expand...

Agreed. There's other effects but two 0.75% bumps don't move the "higher default" needle too much. 3-4% probably would.

The general concept here is that you'll find all sorts of folks posting about the latest "outrage" from politicians to movie personalities and crap they say, but you'll find nary a post about a Fed rate hike and definitely not any posts saying, "I calculated it, and at my current payoff speed on my horrendous personal debt, that vote costs me $2832.

People just do not pay f---ing attention to stuff that ACTUALLY affects them directly, and spend all sorts of time worrying about other useless crap because someone who needs to eat off of ad revenue decided to report on something else salacious.

FormerHangie said:
Avgas prices are not killing GA. if for no other reason than GA is not dying. It is shrinking, but it is not dying. Last year, approximately 17,000 new private tickets and 400 new sport ratings were earned, a number that has been pretty much constant over the last five years.
Click to expand...

I always find the private certificate numbers interesting.

If you remove the number of pilots that came through the puppy mills and bulk certificate colleges and schools, whatever is left is what the typical non-big-school CFI is marketing to.

And I haven't met any CFIs who aren't as busy as they want to be, except maybe in the absolute worst years of recessions. Most fight off students because weather and maintenance and other factors knock around the schedules of their existing students so bad already that they smartly don't add more.

And if you want flight time, any CFI can have their butt busted at a big school.

So I just find the numbers fascinating. The hobby as a whole may be shrinking but inside the hobby there's still plenty "going on". And the certificate numbers don't show the start/quit folks.
 
Lots of good points here, but:

In addition to the increased number of household costs that others have mentioned, lets not forget:

1) Increased cost of higher education
2) Increased cost of medical care
3) Decimation of retirement benefits
4) And as mentioned above, increased cost of household & ancillary items. Call it the "McMansion Tax".

Back in the day, state college was priced to allow everyone to attend for a modest price. Healthcare was a fraction of what it now is & employer paid, and many employers provided some kind of defined benefit program that was indexed to your earnings, but didn't require contribution.

Now both parents have to work to make ends meet. That means child care expenses on top. Work now requires "contactability" on evenings and weekends. Any family time that remains is precious.

People are working a lot more, paid less and benefits have been decimated if not eliminated. Costs for important items have skyrocketed.

The cost increases in aviation is driven by the lower consumption, because several strata of pilots have been removed because no one has the time to make a hamburger run or futz at the airport. Take a look at the number of suppliers & manufacturers in 1960 and compare it with today. Far fewer, so those remaining have better pricing power. The only people I see left in aviation are those where time spent isn't connected to their income....Doctor's and Lawyers with good practices that are self sustaining, successful property owners (rental) or successful biz types that have ownership that doesn't require involvement.

Cessna could chop the price of a 172 in half, and it wouldn't meaningfully increase their sales. The people or businesses who can afford a $400k 172 are the same people who can afford one at $250k. You're not going to capture that many more people by lowering the price like that, so you might as well go for the max.

The "common man", which is really who you need to fill out the GA ranks the way it was in the 50s/60s/70s simply doesn't have the time. Why do you think all you see at the airport are the older folks? The younger folks are out humping for a living, answering emails and voice messages on the evenings and weekends, otherwise their data driven performance evaluation gets pinged. You could charge 1975 prices (indexed for inflation) for parts & services, and it wouldn't make any difference. You'd only capture a notional number of people, and you'd probably make more money selling fewer units at the higher price.

"US Productivity" has been on a bender since the 1970s. Go USA, right? But the flip side of that is people are working harder, longer, and will probably will be forced to stay in the work force until they drop. That doesn't leave any time for GA, and the off-loading of retirement & healthcare to the majority of the population means they won't have the money, either.

The costs of GA are a function of economics. But rather than the cost affecting the demand, it is the lack of demand that is driving the price. The ultimate irony is that many of the moderately successful business types who can afford GA, have been able to do so because of this increase of productivity, and then claim it's still not enough. Then they complain that GA is too expensive. We reap what we sow.

If anything, I think GA is a harbinger for the state of society. If we like the situation, then fine, but don't think it's anything else but what it is. 100LL is moderately expensive? Sure. Product liability, yes, plays a part, but vastly increases as unit counts decline. The real driver of increased costs because of reduced demand.

Richman
 
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The delta in undershooting housing with prejudice, literally funds my ability to fly. I read somewhere the govt says you should spend 35% of your net income (30% of gross) on housing. My family be like....
giphy.gif


#cantflythehouse #gameischess :D
 
Bonchie said:
It's a lot easier to fly when you don't care about nice cars and have no debt.

We have a 2007 impala. It works just fine and we have an extra $500 a month in the bank account we wouldn't have if we bought that new $30k car everyone thinks they need.
Click to expand...
^^^ This. My previous car was a 2001 Saturn wagon that went to 240,000 miles and was replaced by a <20k 2012 Chevy Sonic when it finally died. I have no debt, though that might have to change if I buy a dwelling of some kind in the next couple of years (currently renting, and renting out, my old condo back in MI). That somewhat frugal lifestyle is why I've been able to fly on a meager college professor's income (no, I'm not in administration, I'm rank and file, not even tenured). It was easy in MI, not so easy here in New England where the cost of living is at least 20% higher. We'll see how it goes the next few years, I may even be among those hanging up my wings or at least selling the plane. But I wouldn't even be an owner if I had substantial debt or lived high on the hog.
 
Richman67 said:
Lots of good points here, but:

In addition to the increased number of household costs that others have mentioned, lets not forget:

1) Increased cost of higher education
2) Increased cost of medical care
3) Decimation of retirement benefits
4) And as mentioned above, increased cost of household & ancillary items. Call it the "McMansion Tax".

Back in the day, state college was priced to allow everyone to attend for a modest price. Healthcare was a fraction of what it now is & employer paid, and many employers provided some kind of defined benefit program that was indexed to your earnings, but didn't require contribution.

Now both parents have to work to make ends meet. That means child care expenses on top. Work now requires "contactability" on evenings and weekends. Any family time that remains is precious.

People are working a lot more, paid less and benefits have been decimated if not eliminated. Costs for important items have skyrocketed.

The cost increases in aviation is driven by the lower consumption, because several strata of pilots have been removed because no one has the time to make a hamburger run or futz at the airport. Take a look at the number of suppliers & manufacturers in 1960 and compare it with today. Far fewer, so those remaining have better pricing power. The only people I see left in aviation are those where time spent isn't connected to their income....Doctor's and Lawyers with good practices that are self sustaining, successful property owners (rental) or successful biz types that have ownership that doesn't require involvement.

Cessna could chop the price of a 172 in half, and it wouldn't meaningfully increase their sales. The people or businesses who can afford a $400k 172 are the same people who can afford one at $250k. You're not going to capture that many more people by lowering the price like that, so you might as well go for the max.

The "common man", which is really who you need to fill out the GA ranks the way it was in the 50s/60s/70s simply doesn't have the time. Why do you think all you see at the airport are the older folks? The younger folks are out humping for a living, answering emails and voice messages on the evenings and weekends, otherwise their data driven performance evaluation gets pinged. You could charge 1975 prices (indexed for inflation) for parts & services, and it wouldn't make any difference. You'd only capture a notional number of people, and you'd probably make more money selling fewer units at the higher price.

"US Productivity" has been on a bender since the 1970s. Go USA, right? But the flip side of that is people are working harder, longer, and will probably will be forced to stay in the work force until they drop. That doesn't leave any time for GA, and the off-loading of retirement & healthcare to the majority of the population means they won't have the money, either.

The costs of GA are a function of economics. But rather than the cost affecting the demand, it is the lack of demand that is driving the price. The ultimate irony is that many of the moderately successful business types who can afford GA, have been able to do so because of this increase of productivity, and then claim it's still not enough. Then they complain that GA is too expensive. We reap what we sow.

If anything, I think GA is a harbinger for the state of society. If we like the situation, then fine, but don't think it's anything else but what it is. 100LL is moderately expensive? Sure. Product liability, yes, plays a part, but vastly increases as unit counts decline. The real driver of increased costs because of reduced demand.

Richman
Click to expand...
Dang after reading that, I who had some hope for GA am now bummed out.
 
Richman67 said:
Lots of good points here, but:

In addition to the increased number of household costs that others have mentioned, lets not forget:

1) Increased cost of higher education
2) Increased cost of medical care
3) Decimation of retirement benefits
4) And as mentioned above, increased cost of household & ancillary items. Call it the "McMansion Tax".

Back in the day, state college was priced to allow everyone to attend for a modest price. Healthcare was a fraction of what it now is & employer paid, and many employers provided some kind of defined benefit program that was indexed to your earnings, but didn't require contribution.

Now both parents have to work to make ends meet. That means child care expenses on top. Work now requires "contactability" on evenings and weekends. Any family time that remains is precious.

People are working a lot more, paid less and benefits have been decimated if not eliminated. Costs for important items have skyrocketed.

The cost increases in aviation is driven by the lower consumption, because several strata of pilots have been removed because no one has the time to make a hamburger run or futz at the airport. Take a look at the number of suppliers & manufacturers in 1960 and compare it with today. Far fewer, so those remaining have better pricing power. The only people I see left in aviation are those where time spent isn't connected to their income....Doctor's and Lawyers with good practices that are self sustaining, successful property owners (rental) or successful biz types that have ownership that doesn't require involvement.

Cessna could chop the price of a 172 in half, and it wouldn't meaningfully increase their sales. The people or businesses who can afford a $400k 172 are the same people who can afford one at $250k. You're not going to capture that many more people by lowering the price like that, so you might as well go for the max.

The "common man", which is really who you need to fill out the GA ranks the way it was in the 50s/60s/70s simply doesn't have the time. Why do you think all you see at the airport are the older folks? The younger folks are out humping for a living, answering emails and voice messages on the evenings and weekends, otherwise their data driven performance evaluation gets pinged. You could charge 1975 prices (indexed for inflation) for parts & services, and it wouldn't make any difference. You'd only capture a notional number of people, and you'd probably make more money selling fewer units at the higher price.

"US Productivity" has been on a bender since the 1970s. Go USA, right? But the flip side of that is people are working harder, longer, and will probably will be forced to stay in the work force until they drop. That doesn't leave any time for GA, and the off-loading of retirement & healthcare to the majority of the population means they won't have the money, either.

The costs of GA are a function of economics. But rather than the cost affecting the demand, it is the lack of demand that is driving the price. The ultimate irony is that many of the moderately successful business types who can afford GA, have been able to do so because of this increase of productivity, and then claim it's still not enough. Then they complain that GA is too expensive. We reap what we sow.

If anything, I think GA is a harbinger for the state of society. If we like the situation, then fine, but don't think it's anything else but what it is. 100LL is moderately expensive? Sure. Product liability, yes, plays a part, but vastly increases as unit counts decline. The real driver of increased costs because of reduced demand.

Richman
Click to expand...
Good start but not the entire picture.

Higher education and medical/health care both increase at a greater rate than inflation. A lot of reasons for that, including increased demand, more focus on pushing everyone into higher education as opposed to sending some through trades, and more demand on the medical providers with less increase in supply. There is added focus on profit, too. (Note that I am not blaming the "insurance" companies - things like medicare price caps & pharma price increases factor in).

There are also social factors. 20-30 years ago we didn't have the proliferation of other things to take our time and money. Computers, cell phones, cable TV services, internet services, two cars in each driveway, increased property taxes as we own more & use more. Most kids today would rather sit in front of the X-box or computer than get outside, and when they do go outside they have their smartphones.

Airlines have commoditized air travel - deregulation added many players and cut costs. Wanna go somewhere? It's cheaper to fly than rent a plane or drive. Highways have improved so the time differential in most parts of the US isn't that great between GA and auto.

No question that economics and lack of demand is an issue. Certification requirements and the push to make GA equipment as good as commercial equipment means there is a cost floor, with less demand the price goes up.

By the way, GA is not the only thing that's hit with reduced demand - look at ham radio, for example, which finds itself in a similar boat. Maritime/boats are also down a bit, and would be down even more if operator licensing were required and if more of the equipment were requiring certification. Still, boats have increased in price, too.
 
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