[rant]Cage free eggs[rant]

tspear said:
I agree with @AvNavCom this is one of the better if not the most informative non-aviation thread on POA.

@James_Dean do they have any insight on how the virus is spreading between farms?

Tim
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We can use phylogenetics to help assess if we're seeing farm to farm spread or novel introductions, and how outbreak strains are related. In the 2015 outbreak the data told us 80% of the infections were farm to farm spread. The industry spent vast sums improving our bio-security, doing audits, and the current outbreak data shows that only 20% are farm to farm spread. Generally when we say farm to farm we mean that it is coming in on humans - clothes, dust, shoes. There are also threats like common equipment use, improper disinfection of vehicles/trucks, and things like employees at two different sites living together. All things that indicate the virus was "walked" on the farm.

The current outbreak has so many stories about the virus showing up in the top levels of houses by air inlets that it seems that we're fighting a different enemy this time, and one that our bio-security systems were generally not designed to do. We're also seeing this virus be more adept at surviving in the cold, in far more wild species of birds, and very troublingly in peridomestic animals like rodents, small birds, cats, and insects.
 
James_Dean said:
Yeah, we're entering the fourth year of this battle. We've had over 800 detections in backyard flocks and 740 commercial detections. Layers, broilers, and turkeys we've lost 160mm birds with losses in all 50 states. With another 3mm bird farm going down yesterday the loss of egg layers is now over 125mm out of 310mm to start.

2022 had 34 commercial detections impacting 44.3mm layers
2023 18 and 14.4mm
2024 35 and 40.3mm

YTD 2025 35 for 28mm

It takes between 9 and 15 months from a detection until we can get a farm fully repopulated. The company I'm involved with has farms in Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Washington and Oregon and have had impacts in every state except Idaho.

I'm not here much anymore, but will try to come back to answer any questions.
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James_Dean said:
What would you like me to help you understand or provide clarity to?

We can usually tell in the layer house exactly where the virus got in. The birds will sit down and get quiet. Usually the next day the mortality begins and is exponential until the whole flock is dead usually in under seven days. This virus strain is practically 100% fatal and it shreds them apart very quickly as the circulatory system simply falls apart. Would you like to see some pictures of bloody chicken hearts or hemorrhaging in the proventriculus?

The incursion into the dairy herds and the spread to over 900 dairies nationwide is incredibly troubling as the virus picked up that adaptation that allowed it to jump into mammals.

Eggman
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Who's downvoting this?!

Fascinating info...if not a bit morbid
 
It is my understanding (and I’m probably wrong) that the reason for the federal policy of euthanasia for the entire flock and potentially surrounding area on detection was implemented originally to both try to contain the spread among poultry, but also (and more importantly) to limit it’s chances of mutations that allow it to become mammal or human transmissible. I first learned of it many years ago, and at that time it was considered to be the major global pandemic threat, taken seriously enough that the government even drafted preparedness plans for societal disruptions that would occur if it happened. Looking back to spring of 2020 almost every step taken during Covid was line step with the pandemic response plans for governors developed in anticipation of bird flu. Now that it has continued to expand and mutate (perhaps exponentially) in both ability to infect and transmit between mammalian species I truly hope that policies on its control is guided by people with proper information on the situation, and not politicians trying to make news with off the cuff policy ideas. A bit of research of world events over the last year or two (sea lions and elephant seal mass death events from it, skunk, raccoon, fox infections, waterfowl no longer being asymptomatic but beginning to have die off events). I don’t get nervous easy, but this virus makes me concerned. Especially considering the societal push back post Covid that would probably occur to any containment measures put in to place if it makes the jump to human to human transmission.
 
Flatiowa said:
It is my understanding (and I’m probably wrong) that the reason for the federal policy of euthanasia for the entire flock and potentially surrounding area on detection was implemented originally to both try to contain the spread among poultry, but also (and more importantly) to limit it’s chances of mutations that allow it to become mammal or human transmissible. I first learned of it many years ago, and at that time it was considered to be the major global pandemic threat, taken seriously enough that the government even drafted preparedness plans for societal disruptions that would occur if it happened. Looking back to spring of 2020 almost every step taken during Covid was line step with the pandemic response plans for governors developed in anticipation of bird flu. Now that it has continued to expand and mutate (perhaps exponentially) in both ability to infect and transmit between mammalian species I truly hope that policies on its control is guided by people with proper information on the situation, and not politicians trying to make news with off the cuff policy ideas. A bit of research of world events over the last year or two (sea lions and elephant seal mass death events from it, skunk, raccoon, fox infections, waterfowl no longer being asymptomatic but beginning to have die off events). I don’t get nervous easy, but this virus makes me concerned. Especially considering the societal push back post Covid that would probably occur to any containment measures put in to place if it makes the jump to human to human transmission.
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You're understanding is generally correct. Bottom line, we've been prevented from using a vaccination program due to trade implications, primarily because of chicken meat to China, Indonesia, Mexico, and Canada. It is a $10B problem. However, it is now time that we either vaccinate the chickens or we're likely going to be forced into vaccinating the people.
 
James_Dean said:
You're understanding is generally correct. Bottom line, we've been prevented from using a vaccination program due to trade implications, primarily because of chicken meat to China, Indonesia, Mexico, and Canada. It is a $10B problem. However, it is now time that we either vaccinate the chickens or we're likely going to be forced into vaccinating the people.
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May be lobbing a softball here, but my assumption is that due to the mutations and numerous methods of spreading, even the Eutopian model of "free range/free love/no cage/no fence/all sunshine and rainbows and green grass as far as the eye can see" type chicken flocks are as much (or more?) vulnerable to this thing?
 
I'm a little confused though.....the tv tells me people are rioting at costco for eggs and a dozen eggs, if you can find them, are like $1400 and eggs are so expensive because if you eat them the bird virus will roast your innards but at every local supermarket they are all fully stocked and are "only" like $4-7/dozen. so, is there a shortage or no? are they safe to eat? surely the tv doesn't lie, right?
 
Just had three eggs over easy on top of fresh steamed jasmine rice. Yum yum!
 
James_Dean said:
You're understanding is generally correct. Bottom line, we've been prevented from using a vaccination program due to trade implications, primarily because of chicken meat to China, Indonesia, Mexico, and Canada. It is a $10B problem. However, it is now time that we either vaccinate the chickens or we're likely going to be forced into vaccinating the people.
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if you are not selling internationally, can you implement a vaccine program? Or is there a regulation that blocks it based on possible trade?

Tim
 
CJones said:
May be lobbing a softball here, but my assumption is that due to the mutations and numerous methods of spreading, even the Eutopian model of "free range/free love/no cage/no fence/all sunshine and rainbows and green grass as far as the eye can see" type chicken flocks are as much (or more?) vulnerable to this thing?
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There are certainly differences in the breeds as to how their immune system performs and responds, but they're all susceptible. We lost a free range organic flock in Oregon for example.
 
eman1200 said:
I'm a little confused though.....the tv tells me people are rioting at costco for eggs and a dozen eggs, if you can find them, are like $1400 and eggs are so expensive because if you eat them the bird virus will roast your innards but at every local supermarket they are all fully stocked and are "only" like $4-7/dozen. so, is there a shortage or no? are they safe to eat? surely the tv doesn't lie, right?
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It is complicated. Retailers have contractual arrangements with suppliers and if that supplier is unlucky and gets impacted they might be out of supply without much chance to replace it because there are no surplus eggs that aren't dedicated to other customers. You also have producers(like us) who don't sell very many eggs on the open market, but on a formula price. Egg producers don't have any control over what retailers mark the eggs on the shelf. Some might be taking a loss and some might be selling way over the farm price.

It is very possible that retailer A is buying eggs for $2/dozen and selling them for $6, and retailer B across the street is buying eggs for $8 and selling them for $5. Just depends upon their market strategy and what agreements they had in place with suppliers.
 
tspear said:
if you are not selling internationally, can you implement a vaccine program? Or is there a regulation that blocks it based on possible trade?

Tim
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Once a country authorizes the use of an HPAI vaccination that country has effectively declared the foreign animal disease as endemic. That allows the WTO and countries to throw up trade barriers. Use of the vaccine is controlled by USDA(et. al) and is not currently authorized to use.
 
James_Dean said:
It is complicated. Retailers have contractual arrangements with suppliers and if that supplier is unlucky and gets impacted they might be out of supply without much chance to replace it because there are no surplus eggs that aren't dedicated to other customers. You also have producers(like us) who don't sell very many eggs on the open market, but on a formula price. Egg producers don't have any control over what retailers mark the eggs on the shelf. Some might be taking a loss and some might be selling way over the farm price.

It is very possible that retailer A is buying eggs for $2/dozen and selling them for $6, and retailer B across the street is buying eggs for $8 and selling them for $5. Just depends upon their market strategy and what agreements they had in place with suppliers.
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I think I'm more concerned with "do my eggs have the cooties?". as an uneducated consumer I'm assuming if they have eggs, they're safe to eat. I guess if my body parts start falling off, they had the cooties.
 
James_Dean said:
Once a country authorizes the use of an HPAI vaccination that country has effectively declared the foreign animal disease as endemic. That allows the WTO and countries to throw up trade barriers. Use of the vaccine is controlled by USDA(et. al) and is not currently authorized to use.
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Fascinating.

So if you were king for a day, would you authorize the vaccine and say hell with the trade ramifications?
 
James_Dean said:
Once a country authorizes the use of an HPAI vaccination that country has effectively declared the foreign animal disease as endemic. That allows the WTO and countries to throw up trade barriers. Use of the vaccine is controlled by USDA(et. al) and is not currently authorized to use.
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Thank you both for the extremely informative posts, and for doing what you can to keep our egg supply moving and people safe.
 
eman1200 said:
I think I'm more concerned with "do my eggs have the cooties?". as an uneducated consumer I'm assuming if they have eggs, they're safe to eat. I guess if my body parts start falling off, they had the cooties.
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If the yolk has gelled you’re completely safe. If you eat them over easy you have a slight chance of death. By slight I mean a 1 in 500,000 chance of dying of salmonella and a 1 in a 50,000,000 chance of dying of bird flu.
 
James_Dean said:
If the yolk has gelled you’re completely safe. If you eat them over easy you have a slight chance of death. By slight I mean a 1 in 500,000 chance of dying of salmonella and a 1 in a 50,000,000 chance of dying of bird flu.
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I’m probably overstating the risk. Now…raw milk? I wouldn’t drink it for a million bucks.
 
I know you had addressed this briefly before in this thread before, the logistics of replacing the lost flocks, (I doubt there are a 100,000,000 extra layers hatch each 1/4 year to replace what is being lost). What are the time frames it would take to get “buisness back to usual” in the egg industry if the vaccine was for sake of conversation approved for use tomorrow?
 
Flatiowa said:
I know you had addressed this briefly before in this thread before, the logistics of replacing the lost flocks, (I doubt there are a 100,000,000 extra layers hatch each 1/4 year to replace what is being lost). What are the time frames it would take to get “buisness back to usual” in the egg industry if the vaccine was for sake of conversation approved for use tomorrow?
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18-24 months
 
Meh....we've gotten so use to our own fresh eggs....we don't wash them to keep them longer....and I don't even wash them when I'm cooking. I did for a while....then got lazy. Funny, I haven't got sick.....

So, what would all the crunchy people who are into the no GMO stuff think about vaccinated chickens? I know we enjoy all natural eggs with no nuthin but fresh bugs and what they scratch around my property.
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
Meh....we've gotten so use to our own fresh eggs....we don't wash them to keep them longer....and I don't even wash them when I'm cooking. I did for a while....then got lazy. Funny, I haven't got sick.....

So, what would all the crunchy people who are into the no GMO stuff think about vaccinated chickens? I know we enjoy all natural eggs with no nuthin but fresh bugs and what they scratch around my property.
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I believe 99.99% of egg laying hens have been vaccinated for at least a one or more diseases. Mareks disease in particular.
 
James_Dean said:
18-24 months
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Probably a dumb thought (I image the breeder flocks and existing floor space for pullets are pretty well matched up) but could some of the existing smaller layer barns be temporary retrofitted into pullet houses to speed up the restocking rates? In 2006 when I was working in the hog industry and porcine circovirus ravaged the commercial herds it was kinda industry standard to pull best quality finish pigs to divert them as temporary breeders and start double stocking empty finishing houses with nursery pigs then split them out to back fill empty ones as they grew. Then as soon as possible rotate those less than ideal ones out of the breeding stock. Pigs are different than chickens, but it helped fill the gap.
 
eman1200 said:
I think I'm more concerned with "do my eggs have the cooties?". as an uneducated consumer I'm assuming if they have eggs, they're safe to eat. I guess if my body parts start falling off, they had the cooties.
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Maybe switch to turtle and gator eggs just to be super duper safe.
 
Flatiowa said:
Probably a dumb thought (I image the breeder flocks and existing floor space for pullets are pretty well matched up) but could some of the existing smaller layer barns be temporary retrofitted into pullet houses to speed up the restocking rates? In 2006 when I was working in the hog industry and porcine circovirus ravaged the commercial herds it was kinda industry standard to pull best quality finish pigs to divert them as temporary breeders and start double stocking empty finishing houses with nursery pigs then split them out to back fill empty ones as they grew. Then as soon as possible rotate those less than ideal ones out of the breeding stock. Pigs are different than chickens, but it helped fill the gap.
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We're already pulling out all the stops and doing things like this. Your idea is not possible because the day old chicks need to start in houses that can be heated to 100* and you need special feeding and water systems to accommodate the growing birds. We're also out of breeder capacity. Some breeds are sold out for a year. The primary breeders are bringing on new hatcheries, but you still need the breeding stock to produce fertile eggs which takes time.
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
Meh....we've gotten so use to our own fresh eggs....we don't wash them to keep them longer....and I don't even wash them when I'm cooking. I did for a while....then got lazy. Funny, I haven't got sick.....

So, what would all the crunchy people who are into the no GMO stuff think about vaccinated chickens? I know we enjoy all natural eggs with no nuthin but fresh bugs and what they scratch around my property.
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There is no reason to wash eggs until right before using them as it actually increases the food safety risk. It is likely that the birds do have one or more strains of salmonella, but unless you're immunocompromised your risk is relatively low because you have repeated background exposure.... unless you're making a hollandaise with lots of eggs and keeping it on the stove below pasteurization temps for several hours. Then you're going to get a dose beyond what your immune system can handle. I also wouldn't feed a toddler or grandma anything over easy. Just my mostly educated opinion and YMMV. FWIW, I have no issue if people want to keep backyard flocks as long as reasonable guidelines are followed.
 
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