Word to the wise - a warm body with a certificate days are over - for now.

[Clip4]

If are a student with the goal of becoming an airline pilot, the boom for the regionals, at least for now, is over and the competition for the openings is no longer a warm body with flight hours.

What has been a shortage of instructors at the busiest flight schools for the last 8 years is also over. As an instructor, you are likely going to find yourself teaching at a flight school well beyond obtaining the hours required by the regionals.

As a result, the CFI shortage is also ending. The CFIs who treated there training as nothing more than a nuisance to get to the regionals are getting fired and replaced with better qualified instructors - who are having to compete for positions.

So unless you as a CFI want to get stuck at a low volume Part 61 school, I suggest you get your head into the curriculum and present yourself as the best candidate you can be. This applies if you are a CFI at a community college or a larger 141 school. Just because you trained there is not longer an assurance you will be hired there.

And for the folks considering accelerated CFI training with a rubber stamp DPE on the back end, good luck with that.
Just sayn.

 

[rhkennerly]

Agreed. Over for now. But the fly the Metamucil is hardware, not demand. Neither Boeing nor Airbus can supply the equipment needed. Backlog of orders is massive. I heard on a podcast for pilots that each plane supports 100 pilots. Fortune favors the prepared. Keep training and be ready to jump.

 

[Clip4]

Agreed. Over for now. But the fly the Metamucil is hardware, not demand. Neither Boeing nor Airbus can supply the equipment needed. Backlog of orders is massive. I heard on a podcast for pilots that each plane supports 100 pilots. Fortune favors the prepared. Keep training and be ready to jump.

It’s also a bit deeper than hardware. The airport infrastructure is also stretched to the max at many locations even if there is more hardware. You can only land a given number of flights on a runway per hour.

 

[dmspilot]

Agreed. Over for now. But the fly the Metamucil is hardware, not demand. Neither Boeing nor Airbus can supply the equipment needed. Backlog of orders is massive. I heard on a podcast for pilots that each plane supports 100 pilots. Fortune favors the prepared. Keep training and be ready to jump.

The new airplane shortage was true, but travel demand has been slowing anyway. A lot of airlines have recently delayed orders. Spirit is on the edge of going out of business, JetBlue just announced a huge swath of route eliminations, and the big 3 (or 4) are saying there is excess capacity and are optimizing their flights and routes.

As a result, the CFI shortage is also ending. The CFIs who treated there training as nothing more than a nuisance to get to the regionals are getting fired and replaced with better qualified instructors - who are having to compete for positions.

CFI pay rates still the same as they were 11 years ago, with almost 40% inflation over that time period.

 

[MauleSkinner]

So you’re saying I won’t be able to get crappy training at a 141 school anymore?

 

[dmspilot]

So you’re saying I won’t be able to get crappy training at a 141 school anymore?

You will always be able to do that.

 

[Clip4]

So you’re saying I won’t be able to get crappy training at a 141 school anymore?

Maybe not as crappy as you like.

 

[Pilot-To-Be]

Doom and gloom, it’ll come back. We’ve seen this episode before.

 

[Ryan F.]

Normal cycles - personally speaking, I don’t think this particular “trough” will be very dramatic. It’s still an excellent time, overall, to become a professional pilot. We came through a big swell and there will be another swell, moderate this time, after this slight bump.

I have long been in the habit of reminding the folks I interact with in the airman certification process that these ups and downs are “business as usual” for aviation. Expect it, be prepared for it, ride through it and make the best of opportunities which come your way. There’s a lot of enrichment to be had from these experiences.

 

[dmspilot]

Doom and gloom, it’ll come back. We’ve seen this episode before.

During Corona I told people the pilot shortage was never coming back. That taught me to never try to make any predictions.

 

[Rcmutz]

During Corona I told people the pilot shortage was never coming back. That taught me to never try to make any predictions.

Or, never say never!

 

[TCABM]

During Corona I told people the pilot shortage was never coming back. That taught me to never try to make any predictions.

As long as Kit Darby is converting oxygen to carbon dioxide there’ll be a pilot shortage.

 

[Clip4]

The new airplane shortage was true, but travel demand has been slowing anyway. A lot of airlines have recently delayed orders. Spirit is on the edge of going out of business, JetBlue just announced a huge swath of route eliminations, and the big 3 (or 4) are saying there is excess capacity and are optimizing their flights and routes.


CFI pay rates still the same as they were 11 years ago, with almost 40% inflation over that time period.

Seriously, you need to quit working for Clyde’s Flight School. If he is that cheap on wages, his airplanes are goin get you killed.

 

[Country Flier]

So, the usual big picture…

 

[dmspilot]

Seriously, you need to quit working for Clyde’s Flight School. If he is that cheap on wages, his airplanes are goin get you killed.

I said pay rates, as in general. Not my pay. I don't instruct anymore. No need to take out your frustration with your dead-end job on me.

 

[Clip4]

I said pay rates, as in general. Not my pay. I don't instruct anymore. No need to take out your frustration with your dead-end job on me.

That was a joke dude.

My employer pays me very well and gives me very generous annual increases. I question myself everyday why I keep working because I don’t need the money and time has a value you can’t replace with money as you get older.

 

[Palmpilot]

That was a joke dude.

My employer pays me very well and gives me very generous annual increases. I question myself everyday why I keep working because I don’t need the money and time has a value you can’t replace with money as you get older.

Money comes in handy when it's time to pay the medical bills that come with old age.

 

[SixPapaCharlie]

I have an interview scheduled at a regional. Their wording to me was "We are still hiring FO's it is just that we are prioritizing those in the cadet program and we are not scheduling classes until next year. We have more planes on the way and we anticipate hiring like crazy at the beginning of the year". I anticipate going to the interview and if it goes well, getting a class date next year. So I believe it has slowed way down but I don't think it has come to a screeching halt.

 

[Clip4]

I have an interview scheduled at a regional. Their wording to me was "We are still hiring FO's it is just that we are prioritizing those in the cadet program and we are not scheduling classes until next year. We have more planes on the way and we anticipate hiring like crazy at the beginning of the year". I anticipate going to the interview and if it goes well, getting a class date next year. So I believe it has slowed way down but I don't think it has come to a screeching halt.

If you arrive at the interview and don’t know IFR procedures and clearences, don’t be surprised if you don’t get hired.

 

[Clip4]

Money comes in handy when it's time to pay the medical bills that come with old age.

Actually, that is not an issue in my future.

 

[Salty]

If you arrive at the interview and don’t know IFR procedures and clearences, don’t be surprised if you don’t get hired.

Acting like a supreme ass can result in the same response.

 

[Clip4]

Acting like a supreme ass can result in the same response.

Or a dumb one.

 

[nauga]

Acting like a supreme ass can result in the same response.

By my observations the supreme-ass screening is not as rigorous as the knowledge screening.

Nauga,
who doesn't care about your watch

 

[RyanShort1]

I have an interview scheduled at a regional. Their wording to me was "We are still hiring FO's it is just that we are prioritizing those in the cadet program and we are not scheduling classes until next year. We have more planes on the way and we anticipate hiring like crazy at the beginning of the year". I anticipate going to the interview and if it goes well, getting a class date next year. So I believe it has slowed way down but I don't think it has come to a screeching halt.

I have a feeling that in your case it's "who you know" because I know other people that aren't even getting to the interview stage who "should" be qualified.

 

[MauleSkinner]

I have a feeling that in your case it's "who you know" because I know other people that aren't even getting to the interview stage who "should" be qualified.

He’s got video.

 

[jordane93]

All cyclical. For reference my airline is still planning on hiring 1000/yr for the foreseeable future which is still an insane amount. A good year for hiring used to be 300.

 

[SixPapaCharlie]

If you arrive at the interview and don’t know IFR procedures and clearences, don’t be surprised if you don’t get hired.

I guess I knew them pretty well.

Class Date will be in Q1 2025. There were a few of us in the interview and all got hired.
Next class is Nov 18th but they are prioritizing cadets over street hires. So I am at the end of the line. but I am in line.

The folks I spoke to said they anticipate "hiring like crazy early next year due to new aircraft purchases".

 

[TCABM]

I guess I knew them pretty well.

Class Date will be in Q1 2025. ….

Congratulations.

 

[Jim K]

I guess I knew them pretty well.

Class Date will be in Q1 2025. There were a few of us in the interview and all got hired.
Next class is Nov 18th but they are prioritizing cadets over street hires. So I am at the end of the line. but I am in line.

The folks I spoke to said they anticipate "hiring like crazy early next year due to new aircraft purchases".

Congratulations.

Congrats for sure!

I was hoping that you'd get a class yet this year and be the FO on our flight from CMI to DFW in January

 

[SixPapaCharlie]

Thank you.

I'm pretty excited. I chose the wrong career for the wrong reason initially and didn't think I would be able to CTRL-Z it.
However, it looks like there is a chance my kids will be better listeners than I was when people were saying "Do what you love" now that I am attempting to walk the walk.

Fingers crossed this works out.

 

[SixPapaCharlie]

Congratulations.

Thank you.

 

[darthanubis]

I guess I knew them pretty well.

Class Date will be in Q1 2025. There were a few of us in the interview and all got hired.
Next class is Nov 18th but they are prioritizing cadets over street hires. So I am at the end of the line. but I am in line.

The folks I spoke to said they anticipate "hiring like crazy early next year due to new aircraft purchases".

Imagine if you took this thread title serious. Congratulations!

 

[TCABM]

Imagine if you took this thread title serious. Congratulations!

I’d say Bryan’s flying experience with longer cross countries in things more complex than a 172 wouldn’t qualify him as a just a warm body.

I think the industry has invested heavily in their cadet/university/flow programs and will continue to prioritize hiring those folks over others. I expect within 10 years the non-program hires will become the shock absorber and non the norm.

 

[SixPapaCharlie]

I’d say Bryan’s flying experience with longer cross countries in things more complex than a 172 wouldn’t qualify him as a just a warm body.

I think the industry has invested heavily in their cadet/university/flow programs and will continue to prioritize hiring those folks over others. I expect within 10 years the non-program hires will become the shock absorber and non the norm.

I don't understand how the cadet program works. There were 2 cadets being interviewed the same day I was. So the airliner "promises them a class date / Job" and they have to get their CFI and go teach somewhere like US Aviation. Once they hit 1500, they get their class date. What's in it for the airline? Both of the cadets on this day were 20 year old CFIs with about 500 hours. They both "Got the job" but I am not sure what that means, what their next step is and how the company benefits.

 

[TCABM]

I don't understand how the cadet program works. There were 2 cadets being interviewed the same day I was. So the airliner "promises them a class date / Job" and they have to get their CFI and go teach somewhere like US Aviation. Once they hit 1500, they get their class date. What's in it for the airline? Both of the cadets on this day were 20 year old CFIs with about 500 hours. They both "Got the job" but I am not sure what that means, what their next step is and how the company benefits.

Each program is different, but the pathway programs effectively create a long term (paid) internship to CJO. Over time, this pipeline can be sized to future needs. For example, airline orders a net increase in jets, those won’t start hitting the property for 2 years. All they need to do is expand the program openings today to meet the flow need in 2 years. Same works in reverse…CJO isn’t guaranteed.

Now, some of the programs also are built to be self-funding. That is the training loan financer is the airline.

Post training, there’s a built in pool of CFIs to produce more cadets then put them in the wholly owned regional subsidiary, then, some time long in the future, maybe flow them to the big leagues.

Each program is different, but capturing a talent pool at the very beginning is the concept.

 

[Groundpounder]

The new airplane shortage was true, but travel demand has been slowing anyway. A lot of airlines have recently delayed orders. Spirit is on the edge of going out of business, JetBlue just announced a huge swath of route eliminations, and the big 3 (or 4) are saying there is excess capacity and are optimizing their flights and routes.

There is no excess capacity when I'm trying to commute....

Also, my airline just announced a whole bunch of new intl destinations, so as of now, that market is still really hot.

 

[darthanubis]

I’d say Bryan’s flying experience with longer cross countries in things more complex than a 172 wouldn’t qualify him as a just a warm body.

I think the industry has invested heavily in their cadet/university/flow programs and will continue to prioritize hiring those folks over others. I expect within 10 years the non-program hires will become the shock absorber and non the norm.

Warm bodies fly more than 172s as you know. Some of them even fly IFR quite regularly. I don’t get the desire to devalue any pilot. Which is it, is it good to fly a simple tailwheel, pulling a banner for good stick and rudder skills, or flying a Cherokee retract around for fun? One is simple one is complex. The survey guys flying c172s at 500ft. All the CFI and II, trash because they were flying C172s? No one here started in a 172? Everyone’s dads weren’t a pilot which allowed them to start flying at 6 years old. This sentiment found here reeks of elitism and gatekeeping. Talk of “puppy mills” and such. Where are the new pilots supposed to come from? What are they allowed to fly that’s sufficient to satisfy the old guard? Will the FAA be informed? /rant off

 

[Half Fast]

Congrats, Bryan! Can’t wait to see your upcoming airline videos.....

 

[Dave Theisen]

but

Warm bodies fly more than 172s as you know. Some of them even fly IFR quite regularly. I don’t get the desire to devalue any pilot. Which is it, is it good to fly a simple tailwheel, pulling a banner for good stick and rudder skills, or flying a Cherokee retract around for fun? One is simple one is complex. The survey guys flying c172s at 500ft. All the CFI and II, trash because they were flying C172s? No one here started in a 172? Everyone’s dads weren’t a pilot which allowed them to start flying at 6 years old. This sentiment found here reeks of elitism and gatekeeping. Talk of “puppy mills” and such. Where are the new pilots supposed to come from? What are they allowed to fly that’s sufficient to satisfy the old guard? Will the FAA be informed? /rant off

So which puppy mill did you go to?


I’m kidding, I’m kidding!

 

[Bill]

Congratulations, and I have to say I might be more than a little bit jealous. I would have loved to be an airline pilot, but as a young lad my parents were hard core against that career path even though I was smitten with everything airplanes. *shrug* Engineering was just fine, but I sometimes still wonder…

Congrats again, you obviously worked hard and found a way to make it happen and for that you should be proud!

Keep us informed you dirty rat.