Worst case scenario?

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moparrob66

Pre-takeoff checklist
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Moparrob
Hey kids- Im considering the purchase of an experienced 172....1961 model. It appears to be in great shape. Needs an annual and probably a major overhaul in 1000 hours or less. I can probably handle that if I can get it at the right price, but an acquaintance of mine has his 182 in the shop right now for a firewall replacement. Major disassembly, hundreds of rivets drilled out, basically everything forward of the seats is un-done to get it re-done right. Hes bracing for a $60,000 bill. Is anything like this likely or common on an old 172?

I know anything is possible, but I hate expensive surprises I can't mitigate without paying someone else. Airplane ownership is fraught with financial peril, but whats the worst news I can get at annual?
 
182's are famous for having bent firewalls. people don't know how to fly them properly. a good pre-buy would discover a problem like that. a good prebuy should find any high dollar problems with the exception of engine problems. there is really no way of knowing if a major engine problem is going to surface now or in a few thousand hours. even a new overhaul can fail without notice. the worst news you can get at annual is an engine making metal or bad corrosion found in the airframe.
 
182's are famous for having bent firewalls. people fly them like they are a 172 which isn't nearly so nose heavy.
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You're right, but I adjusted it a little.
 
moparrob66 said:
Hey kids- Im considering the purchase of an experienced 172....1961 model. It appears to be in great shape. Needs an annual and probably a major overhaul in 1000 hours or less. I can probably handle that if I can get it at the right price, but an acquaintance of mine has his 182 in the shop right now for a firewall replacement. Major disassembly, hundreds of rivets drilled out, basically everything forward of the seats is un-done to get it re-done right. Hes bracing for a $60,000 bill. Is anything like this likely or common on an old 172?

I know anything is possible, but I hate expensive surprises I can't mitigate without paying someone else. Airplane ownership is fraught with financial peril, but whats the worst news I can get at annual?
Click to expand...
The worst news you can get at an annual is that the airplane requires repairs or maintenance that would exceed the value of the plane. In which case you sell it for scrap or parts.
 
Probably should ask what's a likely event. Worst case is your brakes fail, you slide into the wing of a taxiing airliner full of passengers, you and the airliner burst into flame and everyone dies. Feel any better?
 
I was gonna say worst would be a busted firewall and a engine making metal in your new to you 172.
 
Hahaha yes I do. This plane and a potential overhaul would be a yuuge expense for us, as in just doable. I'd hate for bad news from the A&P to precipitate a chest clutching end to my medical certificate, and moving into this plane would be only slightly better than the dog house....
 
moparrob66 said:
Hey kids- Im considering the purchase of an experienced 172....1961 model. It appears to be in great shape. Needs an annual and probably a major overhaul in 1000 hours or less. I can probably handle that if I can get it at the right price, but an acquaintance of mine has his 182 in the shop right now for a firewall replacement. Major disassembly, hundreds of rivets drilled out, basically everything forward of the seats is un-done to get it re-done right. Hes bracing for a $60,000 bill. Is anything like this likely or common on an old 172?

I know anything is possible, but I hate expensive surprises I can't mitigate without paying someone else. Airplane ownership is fraught with financial peril, but whats the worst news I can get at annual?
Click to expand...

Get an inspection/annual done before buying to minimize the RISK of surprises.

Realistically, different mechanics will miss or find certain minor or modest things. The hope is that no one will miss a biggie. Finding a good A&P/IA is more important than finding a good plane. A good mechanic will help you avoid buying surprises.

Worst news at annual, or between annuals, is the need for a new engine. That’s 10s of thousands of dollars. Corrosion doesn’t start and kill a plane in a year. Airframe damage is something you or someone else or weather causes. Prop strike or careless engine management is on you. So the only surprise is how the engine was treated and stored before you, or any metallurgical or engineering or assembly flaws that will show up with bad timing.

It sucks, but it’s the cost of playing.

Cue @hindsight2020 now…
 
Oh yeah, then there’s “panel envy” that will getcha if you’re of that tendency. You might surprise yourself and not realize it until after, lol.
 
Thanks for the input! The plane is IFR equipped and I plan on using it to get my rating and help my kids build time and ratings for their careers. Spontaneous day trips are very appealing too, without fussing over rentals. Insurance quote is $1500/year. I think my wife's car is more than that!
 
If I pull the trigger, I'm adding a spin on filter. Do I have to pay a shop to do it or can I DIY at the oil change?
 
Worst case to me is finding the engine is not approved for the aircraft!

Nearly as bad is a substantial Lien!
 
moparrob66 said:
If I pull the trigger, I'm adding a spin on filter. Do I have to pay a shop to do it or can I DIY at the oil change?
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Will need a Stc and a 337, so no to the DIY part, or at least the paperwork will need a licensed person.
 
moparrob66 said:
Is anything like this likely or common on an old 172?
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moparrob66 said:
but whats the worst news I can get at annual?
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Any old aircraft can have issues. The priority is to identify those issues that will be a concern to the APIA who will perform your 1st annual after you purchase the aircraft. Only their opinions matter when it comes to the condition of the aircraft. Full stop. Hence the reason I always recommend you have that specific mechanic involved in your prebuy.
moparrob66 said:
If I pull the trigger, I'm adding a spin on filter. Do I have to pay a shop to do it or can I DIY at the oil change?
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Requires an A&P sign off, but you could perform the work under their supervision if your mechanic allows it.
 
Lindberg said:
The worst news you can get at an annual is that the airplane requires repairs or maintenance that would exceed the value of the plane. In which case you sell it for scrap or parts.
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Not an annual, but yeah, I experienced that. Managed to sell it in one piece though, which was a welcome relief considering how busy and exhausted I am week to week these days on the work/home balancing front. In fairness to me, when you amortize the capital loss over the ownership period, my "exclusive use tax" as a sole owner over those 500+ hours was cheeeeeeeep. Way better than renting or sharing my toys (or worse, my time) with some persnickety co-owner.

That whole $ number kerfuffle was ultimately a function of the post-2020 monetary policies of our govt. Had I acquired the airplane post 'money printer go brrrr', the presumed mx expense wouldn't technically have exceeded the acquisition price, moot as that point may be.

It wasn't complicated math, and it was way cheaper than repairing then selling, especially when you assign a $ value to 1) price-risk and 2) TIME, like I do. If there's anything worse that eating this hobby's costs, it's paying for the next owner's hobby. I rather drive than incur the latter. Apropos of nothing, exactly what I'm doing these days, facing a 30Ksm/yr work commute I didn't even have when I actually owned an airplane lol.... username/avatar checks.

455 Bravo Uniform said:
Cue @hindsight2020 now…
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Don't light up the bat signal if you don't need a [mbu-20p] masked hero then.;)

Nah, you covered it all pretty well. Nothing to add I haven't already said before on here. Name of the game is Hobson, at least in the cErTiFiEd space. /thread
 
Some of my partners keep looking at the time since overhaul and keeps saying we'd need one soon. Maybe, maybe not it all really depends on condition really.

That said you should just be ready for an overhaul or major works at any time with ownership. It's a source of great comfort for me that would be spread out over our group instead of just me even though I could do it on my own.
 
moparrob66 said:
If I pull the trigger, I'm adding a spin on filter. Do I have to pay a shop to do it or can I DIY at the oil change?
Click to expand...
at minimum it will require an A&P to sign it off, possibly an IA will be required if the engine model was not available with a spin on filter. if it was its a simple log book entry. if the weight change is less than 1 lb a new weight and balance will not be required. you can do the work your shelf, but it must be supervised by an A&P an the A&P will have to sign off the logbook. if it has a O-300 im not sure if that engine had a spin on oil filter available for it, if not im sure its available as and STC'ed mod. installing it with and STC will require an A&P IA to sign off the 337 for the modification.
 
Okay good info thanks! Seems like a reasonable precaution to get the most out of the engine.
 
The age of a well-maintained and regularly operated plane should not normally be an issue. What you need before you buy is an objective pre-buy inspection by a mechanic you trust who knows the aircraft type well. (Fortunately, most mechanics probably know C172s pretty well.) This is not the same as an annual. It is a thorough go-through of the log books looking for red flags like cryptic prop strikes, ground loops or such nonsense, outstanding and potentially expensive uncomplied-with SBs or ADs, evidence of poor maintenance history, and a physical inspection of the plane looking for deal-breakers like advanced corrosion or serious airframe/engine issues. (The physical inspection may also reveal something about the quality of past maintenance practices.) You also want to evaluate the serviceability of avionics.

A mid-time engine (800-1200 hours for a 2000 hour TBO) can be a good value. The prior overhaul is pretty much completely depreciated, and you get the benefit of maybe a half a TBO run before you have to do it again. But a 1000 hour engine that has only been operated for a dozen hours each of the last 10 years might be a basket case. That's why you need the pre-buy.

Among the worst things that could happen with a new-to-you plane (but can usually be avoided) are:
1. Engine needing a rebuild
2. Airframe needing major repairs/refurbishment
3. Major avionics/instrument repair/refurbishment

Don't assume that a seller (who is selling because they likely can't justify the finances of continuing ownership) will maintain or repair the aircraft to your standards. Count on significant extra expenses the first 2-3 annuals to rectify a lot of deferred or sub-standard maintenance from the previous owner. Once you get your plane up to snuff, it's less expensive to maintain. Supposedly. Most of the time. Except the year you finish sealing a wing tank during a longer than normal annual and the other tank springs a leak after the post-maintenance flight. Arghh. It's only money...;)
 
moparrob66 said:
Hey kids- Im considering the purchase of an experienced 172....1961 model. It appears to be in great shape. Needs an annual and probably a major overhaul in 1000 hours or less. I can probably handle that if I can get it at the right price, but an acquaintance of mine has his 182 in the shop right now for a firewall replacement. Major disassembly, hundreds of rivets drilled out, basically everything forward of the seats is un-done to get it re-done right. Hes bracing for a $60,000 bill. Is anything like this likely or common on an old 172?

I know anything is possible, but I hate expensive surprises I can't mitigate without paying someone else. Airplane ownership is fraught with financial peril, but whats the worst news I can get at annual?
Click to expand...
worst case is you buy it without a thorough annual inspection or at least a thorough pre buy inspection by a mechanic you higher and is definitely working for you (not a buddy of the seller)
 
First year for my partners before I join the partners spent 25k on fixing things and not one thing.

It isn’t always one thing.
 
I bought my 1966 Cherokee 180C for $74k a couple of years back, with about 3000TT and ~850 SMOH. Got to love buying in an inflated market! Pre-buy inspection found a few items which required fixing, but no airworthiness concerns. No corrosion at all and fully IFR capable. Basically, a really decent aircraft. Flew her around for a while and had a great time. Oil consumption was nearly zero, fuel consumption reasonable, and power was good. I was happily contemplating an upgrade to a WAAS GPS and putting an engine monitor in her. Then I hit my first annual.

Overall, the plane was once again found to be in excellent shape, with just a few items requiring additional attention. But one of the cylinders was cracked, which meant it had to be pulled, which in turn meant that the camshaft got a looking at. Which was found to have a hairline crack on it. All the cheesecloth in the world couldn't buff it out and ultimately I needed to get the engine overhauled for a quoted price of $25k. LyCon is just down the street, so easy decision. LyCon offers a bunch of upgrades, which I figured why the heck not since I'm already writing a big check. Now it's $33k. Once they finally(!) got the engine pulled apart, it turned out that the camshaft had already been ground down a couple of times, and the crankshaft was also not serviceable. Suddenly my overhaul is $55k. Just got the engine back recently. Looks fantastic and dyno's at 203hp, which isn't bad for something dragging a Cherokee 180 through the sky. But damn did that eat into my avionics budget! By the time I get her back, she will have been down for just over a year.

Moral of the story: whatever you purchase an aircraft for, you need to financially ready to drop probably at least half the purchase price into repairs. Hopefully you won't have to, but you need to be ready just in case. Otherwise you might have a really, really expensive paperweight. I always heard the horror stories and figured it probably wouldn't happen to me, but it did. It's definitely true that the purchase price of an aircraft is only the beginning of what you'll actually spend on it!
 
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