Winter Weather Decision Making

Ted

Ted

The pilot formerly known as Twin Engine Ted
Joined
Oct 9, 2007
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iFlyNothing
As with many weekends, I had a dog rescue transport scheduled. It was supposed to be today (Sunday). As the weekend approached and I was looking at forecasts, it became clear that Sunday was not forecasted to be a pleasant day, but Saturday was looking much better. Changing a transport, especially pushing it forward, inconveniences a lot of people. There's one less day to get health certificates done, media needs to be contacted to be informed of the change of schedule (and that always changes whether or not someone will make it), receivers have to reschedule. All pressures to try to stick to schedule. Still, I saw what looked to me like potential for freezing rain, so I decided to change it, even though I felt badly about inconveniencing everyone.

I flew down to Rock Hill, SC on Friday after work. It was a perfect VFR night flight the whole trip, although I went IFR until I got down near Charlotte and they tried to vector me way out (Rock Hill is on the southern side of Charlotte's airspace). After about 15 miles of that I asked how much further, they told me another 15 or 20 miles. After asking if she could do better and was told no, I thanked her, canceled IFR and got a very unpleasant "Squawk 1200 remain clear of bravo." Got in somewhat late, had dinner, got to bed later than I would have liked.

Yesterday's flight was great and the payoff. Flying from Rock Hill, SC to Syracuse, NY and then back to Williamsport I didn't have a single cloud along the entire route of flight, and after vectoring me around Charlotte's airspace a bit (this controller was much friendlier when I told him I had 14 dogs on board), I got direct. Couldn't ask for more.

So, today's current METARs and TAFs for my departure, home, and Syracuse:

KUZA 131435Z AUTO 01007KT 3SM -RA BR OVC003 02/01 A3019 RMK AO2 UPE1357RAB1357 P0001

KIPT 131410Z 14014G21KT 9SM -SN BKN022 OVC049 01/M05 A3018 RMK AO2 P0000

KIPT 131407Z 1314/1412 VRB06G18KT 4SM -FZRA BR OVC025
FM131800 15008KT 3SM -RA BR OVC006
FM140000 29007KT 5SM -RADZ OVC010
FM140400 27007KT P6SM BKN025

[FONT=Monospace,Courier]SYR 131354Z 17006KT 10SM BKN100 BKN120 OVC200 01/M12 A3006 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP183 T00111117[/FONT]

KSYR 131359Z 1314/1412 18008KT P6SM OVC100
TEMPO 1314/1318 -FZRA OVC045
FM131800 17010KT 6SM -RA BR OVC025
TEMPO 1318/1320 4SM -FZRA BR OVC015
FM132000 20010KT 4SM -RA BR OVC007
FM140100 25006KT P6SM OVC015

Note that minimums at Williamsport are 005, with TAFs reporting 006 about the time I'd be coming, plus all the FZRA reports. Skew-T from Williamsport attached.And I just took the dogs out. It's definitely freezing rain, and my property is covered in black ice. Not fun.Yeah, I'm happy with my decision. I don't want my plane to turn into an icicle, and would be stuck in South Carolina for at least a day to get home. FIKI is not a get out of death free card. The couple times I've gotten into icing (or potential icing) I've made a point of getting out of it, or at least getting to where it would be the least problem.
 

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Not going is always a good decision. The alternative of wishing you hadn't gone is never a good thought.

The weather will be better soon.

Enjoy the Yuck.
 
Looks cold and wet in those clouds. I wouldn't fly. I'm very nervous when it's near freezing and there is wet precip.

Pretty icy around here too. Nasty gray clouds.

Good call, IMHO.
 
Yeah, good choice. I was watching the skies all day yesterday, thinking how nice it was for flying, and how crummy today (Sunday) was forecast to be. I really want to learn how to read those skew-t graphs.

Glad it all worked out for you.

I'm planning a trip to IPT on Monday to pick up our plane from annual. The weather looks like it should hold.
 
Good thinking, Ted. At least until you get hot wings and turbines (that's next year, right?) that kind of thinking will keep you safe.
 
TMetzinger said:
Good thinking, Ted. At least until you get hot wings and turbines (that's next year, right?) that kind of thinking will keep you safe.
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Even with hot wings and turbines we sometimes ask our passengers to change their plans because we might not be able to get where they want to go at the original time frame.
 
TMetzinger said:
Good thinking, Ted. At least until you get hot wings and turbines (that's next year, right?) that kind of thinking will keep you safe.
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If I get sufficient grants I'll replace the Aztec with a DC-9 next month. ;)

Actually, if I make an upgrade, it'll likely be a turbo Aztec or a cargo Navajo/402. It's really hard to beat the Aztec on a cost efficiency basis for what I'm doing from the numbers I've looked at so far. But the more I fly it the more I wish I had turbos. Sure would be nice to be able to go up to the high teens with O2 on days when I can get some nice tailwinds.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
If I get sufficient grants I'll replace the Aztec with a DC-9 next month. ;)

Actually, if I make an upgrade, it'll likely be a turbo Aztec or a cargo Navajo/402. It's really hard to beat the Aztec on a cost efficiency basis for what I'm doing from the numbers I've looked at so far. But the more I fly it the more I wish I had turbos. Sure would be nice to be able to go up to the high teens with O2 on days when I can get some nice tailwinds.
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Gonna be difficult to get those dogs to use O2 though.
 
gismo said:
Gonna be difficult to get those dogs to use O2 though.
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True, but you really feel it in the Aztec above 9k when the manifold pressure drops off. Getting to go up to 15k would be helpful on a bunch of days.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
True, but you really feel it in the Aztec above 9k when the manifold pressure drops off. Getting to go up to 15k would be helpful on a bunch of days.
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Clearly you need a pressurized airplane - it's for the dogs, yeah, that's it! Might be some good deals on older single-pilot jets.
 
TMetzinger said:
Clearly you need a pressurized airplane - it's for the dogs, yeah, that's it! Might be some good deals on older single-pilot jets.
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Let's see, I could buy this Lear 24:

http://www.trade-a-plane.com/specs/viewallphotos?specnum=71481

Aww heck, may as well go all out and get a 737 so I can one-up John Travolta:

http://www.trade-a-plane.com/clsfdspecs/828109

Although I'd probably be better off buying a Teller-mobile and having him come fly it:

http://www.trade-a-plane.com/clsfdspecs/836451

Isn't dreaming fun? :)

I suppose I'll stick with the Aztec, unless Santa thinks I've been REALLY good this year. Maybe if I'm lucky he'll put a few turbos under the Christmas tree, complete with an STC. ;)

Honestly, the Aztec is probably the best plane for the mission in terms of space and economy.
 
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Cessna 340. I hear it calling you.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
Yeah, the problem with those is getting dog cages in it and still getting to the front.
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Ah, yes, I can see that would be a challenge.

Well, then, I suppose you need a TBM850 with the optional crew door.

Problem solved!!:D:D
 
flyersfan31 said:
Ah, yes, I can see that would be a challenge.

Well, then, I suppose you need a TBM850 with the optional crew door.

Problem solved!!:D:D
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Bah... that only has one engine! ;)
 
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