Winds aloft -> Turbulence?

[Chrisgoesflying]

I'm planning to fly a cross country trip from Calgary (in the great white north) to Regina. I am keeping an eye on the weather, especially the winds on Windy. Considering that the airport is just a few miles east of the Rockies, there is some potential for mountain waves or worse. I'm seeing a strange wind pattern in the forecast and would love to hear your thoughts on what it means. Do you think this looks like a tell tale sign for a very rough ride or maybe even a ride to completely avoid?

So, all winds are coming from the west. The airport and city of Calgary is just east of the Rockies with some of the highest peaks in Canada.

The wind on the ground is forecast to be low, right around 10 mph. At 5,000 ft. MSL (1,500 AGL) the wind is forecast to be around 25 mph. The wind at 6,500 ft. MSL (3,000 AGL) is forecast to be a whopping 50 mph and lastly, the wind at 10,000 ft. is forecast to be around 25 mph.

Just to the west, so in the mountains itself, the winds in the lower altitudes below 10,000 ft. are forecast to be calm (less than 10 mph) while the winds at 10,000 ft. are forecast to be around 40 mph.

Below are some images of the forecast.

https://imgur.com/a/g2Z4N8o

 

[RyanB]

Looks like some decent shear would be expected between 5,000 and 6,500. That’s a pretty big change in speed in that short of a distance. Given this, I would expect a turbulent ride.

 

[Daleandee]

From the video ... "Just keep your seatbelt nice and tight or you'll get a headache!"

 

[ja_user]

Go High or low. Find the smooth air

 

[GRG55]

I'm planning to fly a cross country trip from Calgary (in the great white north) to Regina. I am keeping an eye on the weather, especially the winds on Windy...

Looks like you're departing YBW. You didn't say what date and time you plan to make the trip so difficult to answer your question. I fly in the shadow of the Divide on both sides of the border. A lot.

Generally headed eastward from the Divide the mechanical turbulence will dissipate quickly, and over the flatlands east anything over 4000-5000 AGL is usually relatively calm from that influence, especially at this time of year.

Have you used the NAV Canada AWWS route data weather tools?

If not here's the link to the home page:
https://flightplanning.navcanada.ca...nconnu&Page=forecast-observation&TypeDoc=html

At the top click on "route data" (on the blue bar). Then plug in your departure (CYBW) and destination (CYQR) and select the weather data you want to review. It will give you the selected data from the reporting stations near and along your route. At the bottom are the ASEP data choices, including mechanical turbulence, detailed wind info, icing and so forth - these are presented graphically with your route superimposed on the chart.

Give it a try. If you have any questions PM me.

Hint: The GFA will give you an indication of the source of potential wind shear aloft, given the prevailing westerlies.

 

[Bill]

From the video ... "Just keep your seatbelt nice and tight or you'll get a headache!"

Turbulence like that in itself doesn't bother me, but I start wondering about that 38 year old wing spar and aircraft structure. Do any of you get concerned in mod to severe turb considering the old airframes we fly? (And I know there are many much older than 38 yrs)

 

[RyanB]

Do any of you get concerned in mod to severe turb considering the old airframes we fly?

I do in the Archer sometimes, not going to lie. It will be peace of mind to have the AD complied with.

I don’t worry about it hardly at all in your Mooney. They’re very strong birds as you know...

 

[Clip4]

I'm planning to fly a cross country trip from Calgary (in the great white north) to Regina. I am keeping an eye on the weather, especially the winds on Windy. Considering that the airport is just a few miles east of the Rockies, there is some potential for mountain waves or worse. I'm seeing a strange wind pattern in the forecast and would love to hear your thoughts on what it means. Do you think this looks like a tell tale sign for a very rough ride or maybe even a ride to completely avoid?

So, all winds are coming from the west. The airport and city of Calgary is just east of the Rockies with some of the highest peaks in Canada.

The wind on the ground is forecast to be low, right around 10 mph. At 5,000 ft. MSL (1,500 AGL) the wind is forecast to be around 25 mph. The wind at 6,500 ft. MSL (3,000 AGL) is forecast to be a whopping 50 mph and lastly, the wind at 10,000 ft. is forecast to be around 25 mph.

Just to the west, so in the mountains itself, the winds in the lower altitudes below 10,000 ft. are forecast to be calm (less than 10 mph) while the winds at 10,000 ft. are forecast to be around 40 mph.

Below are some images of the forecast.

https://imgur.com/a/g2Z4N8o

https://flightplanning.navcanada.ca...angue=anglais&NoSession=NS_Inconnu&Mode=graph
Check the 24 hour low level prog chart.

 

[GRG55]

Turbulence like that in itself doesn't bother me, but I start wondering about that 38 year old wing spar and aircraft structure. Do any of you get concerned in mod to severe turb considering the old airframes we fly? (And I know there are many much older than 38 yrs)

Most airplanes don't have enough hours on them to worry about fatigue cycles...unless it was a former pipeline survey/inspection plane (such as the one that shed a wing in Australia). Corrosion is the major issue, and that's case by case and has nothing much to do with the calendar age of the plane.

 

[Daleandee]

Do any of you get concerned in mod to severe turb considering the old airframes we fly?

My plane is nine years old and plenty strong but the older I get the more I hate the rough and tumble!

The last Corvair College I went to (about 30 minutes each way) was as rough as a cob both ways. In talking to other pilots I suggested that maybe I should have climbed up higher on the way over but reports from others were that there wasn't any smooth air to be found under 7-8K.

I wasn't going that high for the short ride home. So I just sucked it up, slowed it down, and Rock-N-Rolled all the way home!

 

[PaulS]

1800wxbrief has some great turbulence prediction charts. (Foreflight uses them I believe.) But even with those, I still look for pireps. Predicting it on my own based on wind speed changes generally doesn't work that well in my experience. I've been up on days where the difference over a few thousand feet has been up to 40 knots, smooth as glass. Other days with a fairly even distribution, got banged around. YMMV.

 

[Chrisgoesflying]

The trip is planned for Saturday. I'm flexible in regards to departure time as long as I get to YQR before dark in my 100 mph plane which will need a fuel stop in either Medicine Hat or Swift Current. Thanks for all the replies. I'll keep an eye on it. The weather forecast for Saturday looked beautiful just a few days ago. Calm on the ground, 20 kt tailwind at 7-9k ft. But as we all know, weather forecasts for anything over 24 hours are really just a look into the crystal ball.