Will toys get cheaper as Boomers age out and move to the home?

Morgan3820

Morgan3820

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El Conquistador
Just wondering ahead. My perception is that there are a lot of 70-80 yr. olds with some neat stuff, boats, planes and RVs. Some of it cost a pretty penny. I feel that the next generation is not as interested in or are unable financially to participate in these sort of pastimes. I have read where retirement places like Sun City AZ are having a hard time selling homes. I do not know if this is true or not. With the economy, stock market doing well, I suspect that the luxury good sellers (boats, planes, RVs) are doing a good business. The boat dealer on the way to work seems to have a load of new boats being delivered once a week. These boats are of the $40-$100K CC variety.

With the inevitability of a downturn sometime and the previously mentioned generational shift, I was wondering if I can expect any bargains becoming available in the next decade.
 
Because the 50 year olds don't have dreams, or the 30 year olds and a desire to go places? I think a lot more has to do with economic and pol*t*cal stuff... and in this day and age, everyone looks up their item on the internet, and decides it's worth %110 percent more than the other guy's because it's more tricked out. The deals will always be like they have been. Someone's realistic that they have no interest in it themselves and wants someone else to enjoy it rather than paying for storage.

The driving forces that make things cheaper in a downturn also mean that it's harder to feed those bargains unless you're sitting pretty to begin with.
 
Morgan3820 said:
With the inevitability of a downturn sometime and the previously mentioned generational shift, I was wondering if I can expect any bargains becoming available in the next decade.
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Of course you can, just based on demographics. Consider (say) a 1964 Ford Mustang. If you were 20 years old in 1964, that might have been an aspirational car for you, and remains one 55 years later, now that you're 75. Which is why you (hypothetically) bought a nice example 10-15 years ago when you were still earning good money, the kids were out of the house, and it was time for a nice toy.

Problem is, the inventory of people who aspire to own a 1964 Ford Mustang is going down every day, and the value is soon to follow, 'cause all those 75 year olds won't be driving forever.
 
Eh if its like the 75 year olds i know they'd rather let something rot then let it go at a fair deal.
IE
Yeah your cherokee 140 that hasn't flown in 10 years with 70s avionics you'll let it go for 35 grand... Okay... good luck with that.... Not speaking from experience..
 
Morgan3820 said:
With the inevitability of a downturn sometime and the previously mentioned generational shift, I was wondering if I can expect any bargains becoming available in the next decade.
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Absolutely! Only problem is, your discount Bo has been parked over a decade, now has crazed windows and needs an annual and 45K to get back to airworthy condition:confused::confused::confused::confused:
 
Not just toys...there will eventually be a huge sale of their homes as they pass away or downsize. The numbers over the next 10-30yrs is pretty crazy. So what are our houses gonna be worth in 15 yrs. All the boomers were so sure they would buy their house for X and sell it for at least 2x or 3x but maybe when they flood the market they will sell for 1.2x and depending on the house for retirement planning might not work out so well.

We now have a signed purchase agreement on a hangar. There are 4 planes in the hangar. Two are worth something but both will go a lot cheaper than the owner probably assumed before he passed away. Now the wife and siblings are left trying to sort through all of it. There is another 182 on the field sitting wheels deep in mud in a city hangar. Just think what that would be worth in decent flying condition. I can definitely see boats and big campers going out of fashion with the younger crowds. But I could see all the boomers and their cash wanting to be in FL, south TX and AZ in the winters so maybe that real estate will drive up for about 20yrs and then really tank.
 
Probably not. The majority of those ageing out will not do so gracefully. They’ll hang onto their pride and joy until it’s tires are flat and it’s utterly unairworthy, all the while fending off good faith offers because they KNOW it’s worth more. The airframes will pass onto their clueless children. Those survivors that are maintained will demand a premium, as they always have. With fewer pilots and airframes flying things will get that much worse for those of us who still are.
 
Just like the last recession I plan on buying lots during the next one. I bough luxury watches, RVs, real estate, firearms etc for pennies on the dollar. I don’t own any of it today, made so much bloody money. I’ll be buying even more next time.
 
As someone who is sort of accumulating some of these toys (old Porsches/Ferraris in my case) I kind of hope they don’t go down in value but on the other hand I’m getting them for me and no one else and I’m certainly not buying them as investments.
 
OP tldr:

How can I profit off the hard work and motivation of the previous generation, with less work and less motivation?

Edit: Yes, I know... a COMPLETELY obnoxious post on my part. It was an honest reaction to how the original post hit me. I'm sure it wasn't meant that way.
 
MuseChaser said:
OP tldr:

How can I profit off the hard work and motivation of the previous generation, with less work and less motivation?

Edit: Yes, I know... a COMPLETELY obnoxious post on my part. It was an honest reaction to how the original post hit me. I'm sure it wasn't meant that way.
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The reality is *someone* is gonna have an opportunity to buy these toys at a good price. Might as well be one of us...
 
Someone will still have to teach them how to fly it, or... come up with the drop-in drone brain autopilot.
 
I’m over 70 and have some of the toys mentioned ,have no intent of selling as I’m still using them quite often.
 
MuseChaser said:
OP tldr:

How can I profit off the hard work and motivation of the previous generation, with less work and less motivation?

Edit: Yes, I know... a COMPLETELY obnoxious post on my part. It was an honest reaction to how the original post hit me. I'm sure it wasn't meant that way.
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You had it right the first time. Just as your generation benefited from the previous one
 
No, everything will keep getting more expensive. Since getting a loan is so easy now the prices of everything keep going up because everyone just finances them longer. The problem is the last 10 years of a "toy" will be a neglected life as the owner can't come to grips with the reality of aging and not being able to use it anymore. Then the next generation will get it, have no idea how to use it or care for it and will list it for sale for the price of a nicer better taken care of example just because it was "garage kept and only used on sunny Sundays". Sadly there will be suckers that fall for this because it's the car/boat/plane their parents had and this one has low hours/miles what have you.
 
Careful what you wish for. Acquisition cost is only the beginning in aviation. Sure, you might find some cheap planes. But as more old pilots die off and GA shrinks further, maintenance, parts, and fuel will become even more expensive. At some point, the vast network of public use airports that allow us to go anywhere will die too as the general public wises up and sees the $millions being spent on runways that are only used by a tiny part of the population.
 
F01LA said:
Careful what you wish for. Acquisition cost is only the beginning in aviation. Sure, you might find some cheap planes. But as more old pilots die off and GA shrinks further, maintenance, parts, and fuel will become even more expensive. At some point, the vast network of public use airports that allow us to go anywhere will die too as the general public wises up and sees the $millions being spent on runways that are only used by a tiny part of the population.
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Yeah but that was gonna happen anyways. We're going EAB as a response, as a generation. It's a decline for sure, but beats moping around airplaneless on the ground, lamenting about how our parents gen had it easy, while the gentrifying 9.9ers play airline pilot behind their Garmin land-o-matic envelope protected turbines.

--break break--

Ditto on the comments regarding credit lending and the upcoming recession. Currently there's too much lending, and the financed millionaires have run up the prices. This will reset, just like it did in 2008-2012. You'll see the shed here when the cashflows start taking a hit and the toy shed begins. None of this stuff is owned outright. That's when I'll strike. I'm not doing this as an investment, I just don't think these toys are worth what they're currently going for, and credit is the reason why.
 
F01LA said:
Careful what you wish for. Acquisition cost is only the beginning in aviation. Sure, you might find some cheap planes. But as more old pilots die off and GA shrinks further, maintenance, parts, and fuel will become even more expensive. At some point, the vast network of public use airports that allow us to go anywhere will die too as the general public wises up and sees the $millions being spent on runways that are only used by a tiny part of the population.
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I already have my last plane. not worried about it. But I have been thinking about someday upgrading the boat.
 
F01LA said:
Careful what you wish for. Acquisition cost is only the beginning in aviation. Sure, you might find some cheap planes. But as more old pilots die off and GA shrinks further, maintenance, parts, and fuel will become even more expensive. At some point, the vast network of public use airports that allow us to go anywhere will die too as the general public wises up and sees the $millions being spent on runways that are only used by a tiny part of the population.
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Fly a mogas STCd airplane off a private grass strip. Cheap, easy, done.
 
Morgan3820 said:
You had it right the first time. Just as your generation benefited from the previous one
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nice. and I hope my future children:eek: have a better life than me and benefit off this one as well.. I don't think there's anything morally wrong with that.., otherwise isn't it like arguing this, below?
upload_2019-12-12_20-41-58.png
 
Lachlan said:
I know there are a lot of members here who have airplanes worth far more than our house is worth. ;)
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Oh I don't doubt it. My only point was that I haven't been able to find fly-in communities where attaining at or below national median price housing is realistic. Or at least I haven't been able to figure out the regions of the Country where this would be attainable. Of course, much of it is self-imposed, as I'm not retiring to a place with frigid winters.
 
kyleb said:
Does an ex-wife still have the other one? ;-)
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I know quite a few boomers just like me who approaching retirement. We’re buying retirement toys now: planes, motorcycles, boats, sports cars, etc. All the stuff we deferred while buying homes and minivans and raising kids. I think that will likely inflate the market for a while.
 
One thing to consider is all that wealth isn't going to evaporate once older people pass away. Someone will inherit. A friend of mine just upgraded from a Cardinal RG to a Cirrus SR-22 when his mother passed away earlier this year.
 
Who cares what the next generation does with your aquired goods? Enjoy it now while you have it. The next generation will face the same issue in 50 years, but they'll be struggling to figure out maintain 100 year old Cherokees and 172s. Good luck with that!
 
Half Fast said:
Used to have a miniature Schnauzer. Yappy annoying thing. Presently have a Dobe but I would be willing to trade him for a lion.
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Our mini is not a yapper , great hunting dog . She retrieves Richardson ground squirrels for me. My Airedale was the best all around dog I ever had the pleasure of knowing.
 
Southpaw said:
Our mini is not a yapper , great hunting dog . She retrieves Richardson ground squirrels for me. My Airedale was the best all around dog I ever had the pleasure of knowing.
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Wife has 2 miniature Schnauzers. Their barks are ear splitting, they stink like skunks 10 minutes after they come home from their all day shampoo trim and spa. And they react to me as if I beat them every time the wife is away.

Used to have a lab that ran with me every day and slept on her doggie bed and actually learned not to beg for food at the table. I miss that dog, I won't miss the ankle biters.
 
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