Will General Aviation Survive

UngaWunga said:
Man how I ****ing hate golf. Never seen the point. Sure, drinking heavily and driving a golf cart around is fun and all, but I have better things to do with my time.
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Better things to do like focusing on what you hate? :dunno:
 
TK211X said:
I took my 10 year old cousin up for a flight in a 152 while they visited us here in FL. I really wanted him to get the same interest in aviation like I did. However, 5 minutes after takeoff he has glued to his phone :(
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Sorry to hear that, I have tried to get my stepson interested in flying for years. He just is not interested.....:(
 
mfisher said:
I do not believe the hype that GA is in trouble. Not while it is impossible to find a hangar in the Austin Texas metro area without either waiting 8 years or knowing the right people.

Alternatively, someone should do a real research study on how the lack of hangar availability is affecting GA.
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We have the same issue in Atlanta. The close in airports are at full capacity, and really don't have any way of expanding, short of devouring the homes and businesses around them.

midcap said:
The problem with GA is there is absolutely no marketing for GA....NONE.

Literally....all AOPA/EAA would have to do is run a few commercials, do some social media advertising and people would start to become more involved with GA.

There also needs to be some more targeting marketing in the way of, "fly your own airplane for XXX.XX a month"

Basically a turn key operation.

IMO the big missing thing is some type of warranty on older planes. I see some shops do it, but they are still out of the price range.
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Do you ever read "Air Facts Journal?" Richard Collins posted something about the last time the GA industry tried doing promotions. This was back in the peak days of the early 80's, and it didn't work.

I've been following aviation since I was in elementary school back in the 60's. I got my private ticket in 1978, back when the number of pilots was reaching its peak. Aviation was expensive back then, just like it is now. The biggest change since then has been in new aircraft prices, they are much higher, but in real terms, I don't think rental prices are that different. Hangars were hard to come by back then as well. I've observed a few things over the years, and I'd like to share them with y'all.

First and foremost, the vast majority of people have no interest in learning to fly. Just because we are passionate about aviation doesn't mean this translates to everyone else. Accept this. It doesn't mean that nonpilots are wimps, or are lazy, or timid little sheep, it just means they aren't interested in aviation. There is nothing you can do or say to change this, and that is why marketing aviation to nonpilots is a waste, the percentage of nonpilots who might become pilots is really small.

Second, I can think of three reasons someone might want to take up GA flying: they'd like to make flying a career, they love the sensation of being aloft, or they have a need or want to travel regionally on a regular basis. Of these, we can ignore the first group, they're going to do what they can to get that flying job, or come to the conclusion that it's not what they want or can get and then quit. The second group, those who just love the idea of flying, are the most passionate group, and I suspect they're the smallest. The third group, those who want to use the airplane to go places, I think makes up the largest part of noncommercial GA. Going back to Richard Collins again, he was a member of this group. I say was, because he hung up his headset a few years ago when he felt he couldn't successfully fly IFR any longer. Could he still fly locally? Yes, but that didn't interest him. I found out that as far as GA flying goes, I was in that group as well. I flew for a few years after I got my private, I stopped flying because I had nowhere to go, and flying locally just didn't hold much appeal. Many years later, I took up hang gliding, which is really fun, but I couldn't get up enough to remain proficient. I'm still thinking of getting into soaring in a few years, but time will tell. IMO fun flying is motorless, I'm not an aerobatics kind of guy, I even hate power on stalls.

Third, there seems to be a minimum level of aviation beneath which most would be pilots would not be interested in. Let me explain that statement a bit. Back in the late 60's when I was first becoming aware of aviation, most of the experimental amateur built aircraft were simple things, built on a small budget. The purpose of these aircraft was to get one or two people aloft, cheaply. Snap back to today, and what do you see in the EAB market? The spiritual successor to the Jeanie's Teenie and the Fly Baby? Nope, you see lots and lots of RVs, which are much more traveling machines than around the patch type and are pretty pricey to build. It seems to me that the market is speaking here. Sure, there are some low speed machines being built, and some STOL machines, but the minimal airplane thing just doesn't seem to get much traction.

And that leads back to my idea that the majority of pilots, and prospective pilots are interested in using the airplane to travel. GA airplanes are good at covering distances of around 150 to 600 miles. Much shorter than 150 miles, and it's usually faster just to use the car, and more than 600, the airlines are faster. So, let's say you're talking to a prospective pilot who wants to use his private ticket to go places. He'll ask you what type of airplane it will take to get to the beach/mountains/ grandma's house. If he doesn't have a family, nearly anything from a Skyhawk on up will do. If he does have a family, you may be looking at a Skylane or one of the six seaters, depending on how big of a family and the ages of his children. He's also going to ask you about how the weather will affect his plans, and depending on where he lives, you may want to advise him to get his instrument ticket as well. I'm heading out to visit my mother tomorrow morning, and I've been assembling a flight plan in my mind. I've come to the conclusion I'd need a Skylane to make the trip worthwhile. If we used one of the 160 or 180 hp machines, we'd have to make a stop, and at that point the time savings over driving would be minimal. For this weekend's trip, the return on Monday is forecast for solid rain and some thunderstorms, so it would be a no go anyway, even if I were rated and had access to an airplane, we'd be driving.

In my case, we don't travel much. School takes up most of the year, and when it's in session, on the weekends my younger daughter usually has a rehearsal with her dance company, and the older one typically uses Sunday to catch up on her homework. School's out eleven weeks during the summer, one week at Thanksgiving, and two weeks at Christmas. In addition to going to visit my mother once a year, we go visit some other relatives in July, and every other year go to visit those same folks at Thanksgiving. My wife and daughters also go to a National dance competition every other year, and we have been taking an actual vacation every other year. Out of all these trips, the only ones that a GA airplane would be suited for would be the annual visit that's coming up this weekend and the every other year Thanksgiving visit. The August trip is to a lake house, and we carry so many people and so much stuff we'd need a PC-12 to carry it all. I don't go on the dance trip, and on the actual vacations the distances traveled are best covered in an airliner. Realistically, we're not a good candidate to be a flying family. That's probably for the best, as my wife would be a nervous wreck as a GA passenger.

So, what you're looking for is someone who travels regionally, does so on a fairly regular basis, either travels with a small family or has enough money to spend on a larger plane, doesn't carry a lot of stuff while traveling, is willing to learn to fly and maintain proficiency, and either can tolerate having to cancel because of weather or lives somewhere it's almost always flyable, and has family members who find flying in a GA airplane comfortable. And, of course, has the wherewithal to pay for all of that. See the problem now?

GLMS_NC said:
Thank you, and this proves the point. Compared to SEL piston models, Cirrus is selling well. Not all doom and gloom there...
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Cirrus is the definitely the bright spot in the piston engine market, the rest of the makers are turning out pretty small numbers; Cessna builds as many jets as they do piston singles.
 
Flying is a passion, a goal that takes a lot of work and some cash to achieve. I did not get my PPL until I was financially stable at age 40. It worked for me because I truly wanted to make a commitment. I bought my baby Beech B-19, 20 years ago, obtained my A&P 16 years ago. A commitment I made as an aircraft owner, in order to keep my dream alive.

That's me and I promote GA every chance I get...:)
 
paflyer said:
WAAS GPS is easily 12AMU installed and probably more.
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You don't need to spend anywhere near that amount for ADS-B Out compliance.
 
GLMS_NC said:
Thank you, and this proves the point. Compared to SEL piston models, Cirrus is selling well. Not all doom and gloom there...
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That makes sense to me....only two piston powered planes I knew about before I got into flying that had props were the Cirrus and the 172.

FormerHangie said:
We have the same issue in Atlanta. The close in airports are at full capacity, and really don't have any way of expanding, short of devouring the homes and businesses around them.



Do you ever read "Air Facts Journal?" Richard Collins posted something about the last time the GA industry tried doing promotions. This was back in the peak days of the early 80's, and it didn't work.

I've been following aviation since I was in elementary school back in the 60's. I got my private ticket in 1978, back when the number of pilots was reaching its peak. Aviation was expensive back then, just like it is now. The biggest change since then has been in new aircraft prices, they are much higher, but in real terms, I don't think rental prices are that different. Hangars were hard to come by back then as well. I've observed a few things over the years, and I'd like to share them with y'all.

First and foremost, the vast majority of people have no interest in learning to fly. Just because we are passionate about aviation doesn't mean this translates to everyone else. Accept this. It doesn't mean that nonpilots are wimps, or are lazy, or timid little sheep, it just means they aren't interested in aviation. There is nothing you can do or say to change this, and that is why marketing aviation to nonpilots is a waste, the percentage of nonpilots who might b snip......
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I never read air journal.....

I think your post is very accurate....I fall into the traveling to go somewhere category.

The places that we often visit....are much quicker by plane and cut the time in at least half...mostly due to traffic and topography.

Hopefully one day a single engine Turbo Prop will be in the cards.
 
I wonder too, growing up in the sixties in the Chicago area, and my dad was a pilot and owned a Cessna 172 and we flew a lot. But I also recall you used to see a lot mor tv shows with GA pilots as part of the storyline. You used to see a lot more of it in the media.
And maybe too for a lot of younger people they feel like it's no big deal anymore, they can "get the experience" all they want with sims. Maybe some of those do get the bug to fly, but there used to be a buzz about flying that seems to not be part of the general consciousness anymore.

I don't know if it is of interest, I just started learning to fly this summer, here in Norway. My impression (and I may be wrong) is that I am already seeing and hearing of small airports closing. Some because the military is moving their operations and it seems some small airports here piggyback on the military airports. Multi use.
Another, Rygge, is closing because of both military and also Ryanair refused extra taxes levied on them at Rygge.

The airport I fly out of is Kjeller. I'm reading that it is in danger of closing as well. Have read that though (surprisingly) many neighbors of the airport say they like having the airport there and aren't bothered by it, the mayor sees no value in having it take space that could be converted into apartments and malls. He basically said that. We have noise restrictions and cannot do touch and goes at the airport and we take steps to lessen noise at takeoff, etc. but there is kind of a short sightedness with the politicians. There is enough other land to use for apartments and malls, and it would really be a shame if it closed.

I did just see a movie about a kid learning to fly, called "spin" and things like that can generate interest. It's a shame there aren't more films about the joy of flying small planes. Of course, in Spin it was a little unrealistic for the drama. The kid takes off in a plane, and his uncle comes running out and worries because "the left magneto is out...but he should be fine as long as the other one holds" which i think the uncle woud have left at least a note on the panel, and the kid should have discovered in his magneto check before takeoff.

My father used to work in the AOPA in the Midwest, in the eighties and early nineties, and though I didn't see him often (I moved to California, and then Norway) I got the impression most of his job was trying to convince municipalities to keep airports up and running and fight closings.
 
I'm sorry but I'm not the doom and gloom type of person. General Aviation is here today and we can enjoy it now. OSH last year had 563,000 attendees, So there is some interest in GA do you think GA can sell that population a few more hundred planes to do better than the previous year? I think so! The marketing just isn't there.
 
Hangars always have a waiting list, because unlike boats, you can't easily take them home to store. 90% of the 70 aircraft at my airport rarely fly. If the flying car ever gets perfected and the price comes down under $200K, I think we will see more people in the air. Even if we are not buying new aircraft, spending $5-$15K on hangar rent, insurance, fuel, repairs has to help the economy some.
 
Trump doesn't like the FAA. Remember just a few months back when his registration expired and they were slow to respond so he had to sell the jet to another one of his companies to get a new registration certificate? He won't forget. He is going to slaughter the FAA, ram though the 3rd class medical as well as the part 23 re-write. If I worked for the FAA, I'd be very nervous. The controllers are probably fine. This time next year aviation will be alive!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
RV10flyer said:
Hangars always have a waiting list, because unlike boats, you can't easily take them home to store. 90% of the 70 aircraft at my airport rarely fly. If the flying car ever gets perfected and the price comes down under $200K, I think we will see more people in the air. Even if we are not buying new aircraft, spending $5-$15K on hangar rent, insurance, fuel, repairs has to help the economy some.
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Getcha some land, we don't need no stinkin' airports
 
I see a decline at my airport but I think that if a person loves to fly he/she will make it happen. I hope to fly untill someone makes me quit. But I am only 82 years old so what do I know.... Huh Spike?
 
GRG55 said:
You don't need to spend anywhere near that amount for ADS-B Out compliance.
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"The cost to upgrade for ADS-B Out for the majority of older piston general aviation airplanes will be around $7,000 for an all-in-one ADS-B In/Out unit with built-in WAAS GPS receiver and Wi-Fi (or Bluetooth) output to an iPad or other tablet. That's a tough nut, no question. Anybody with an airplane worth less than $50,000 will have to think long and hard about whether they'll want to equip or not. But if you decide not to install ADS-B Out gear, that doesn't mean you'll necessarily be grounded. Generally speaking, ADS-B Out will be required in the airspace where a Mode C transponder is needed today. That leaves plenty of airspace wide open where ADS-B won't be required. Smaller outlying GA airports might even see a welcome influx of based airplanes after the rule goes into effect."
http://www.flyingmag.com/avionics-gear/instrumentaccessories/six-big-myths-about-ads-b-mandate
 
More like half that with the navworx, and regardless of the FAA witch hunt, as time goes on you'll see more properly priced all in ones.

Think 2k for a owner assist install or shy of 3k for a shop, that's going to be the real world price tag for folks smart enough to shop it and to wait.

And AGAIN, for those who don't read well. ADSB IS NOT MANDATORY, IT WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THE MAJORITY OF AIRSPACE IN THE US.
 
James331 said:
More like half that with the navworx, and regardless of the FAA witch hunt, as time goes on you'll see more properly priced all in ones.

Think 2k for a owner assist install or shy of 3k for a shop, that's going to be the real world price tag for folks smart enough to shop it and to wait.

And AGAIN, for those who don't read well. ADSB IS NOT MANDATORY, IT WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THE MAJORITY OF AIRSPACE IN THE US.
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It depends on where you live/fly. Both coasts, you'll be dodging 30 mile Mode Cs, and there's a guarantee that if there is minimal compliance and/or violations post-2020, that FAA will grab more airspace.

I'm not aware of "owner assisted" avionics shops. Best you can do is remove some panels, which doesn't do much for the cost. Maybe in Podunk. Shops in Mid-Atlantic are about $100/hr. ADS-B installs will be $2-3K starting from scratch, PLUS the electronics which run a minimum of $3K with all of the required "accessories" like antennas...

Now as far as Navworx is concerned: http://www.navworx.com/
 
You need a avionics shop to install a simple all in one transponder?

Also if you look at a sectional, LOTS of airspace without mode c rings, and I bet the Feds will back peddle around 2020, they are government workers, normally looking to do the least work, trying to grab more airspace would not really be in their best interests.
 
Aaronk25 said:
Trump doesn't like the FAA. Remember just a few months back when his registration expired and they were slow to respond so he had to sell the jet to another one of his companies to get a new registration certificate? He won't forget. He is going to slaughter the FAA, ram though the 3rd class medical as well as the part 23 re-write. If I worked for the FAA, I'd be very nervous. The controllers are probably fine. This time next year aviation will be alive!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I am cautiously optimistic about the new presidency regarding the FAA.
 
While there is no doubt that GA has declined, we should remember that a significant percentage of that is not a "Decline", but a shift to the small and midsize jets, with Fractional Ownership.
Companies that used to own planes to travel around now buy shares in companies like NetJets instead. This shift away began in the mid-90's, and the airlines felt the pinch as well, as their best-paying passengers switched over to the fractionals.
 
paflyer said:
"The cost to upgrade for ADS-B Out for the majority of older piston general aviation airplanes will be around $7,000 for an all-in-one ADS-B In/Out unit with built-in WAAS GPS receiver and Wi-Fi (or Bluetooth) output to an iPad or other tablet. That's a tough nut, no question. Anybody with an airplane worth less than $50,000 will have to think long and hard about whether they'll want to equip or not. But if you decide not to install ADS-B Out gear, that doesn't mean you'll necessarily be grounded. Generally speaking, ADS-B Out will be required in the airspace where a Mode C transponder is needed today. That leaves plenty of airspace wide open where ADS-B won't be required. Smaller outlying GA airports might even see a welcome influx of based airplanes after the rule goes into effect."
http://www.flyingmag.com/avionics-gear/instrumentaccessories/six-big-myths-about-ads-b-mandate
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Only "Out" is needed to be compliant. Current price for a new Garmin GTX335 with built in WAAS position source is $3,300. A Garmin dealer has to order it if it is going into a certified plane, but even if that shop charges you for 10 hours of installation your plane will be legal on 01/01/20, and you will be well short of that $7k figure. And being Garmin I doubt the 335 is necessarily the lowest cost option, just one example.

On a budget there are plenty of portable "In" solutions that do not require money to be delivered to an avionics installer, and there's no requirement to buy any of them to keep flying in controlled airspace.
 
GRG55 said:
Only "Out" is needed to be compliant. Current price for a new Garmin GTX335 with built in WAAS position source is $3,300. A Garmin dealer has to order it if it is going into a certified plane, but even if that shop charges you for 10 hours of installation your plane will be legal on 01/01/20, and you will be well short of that $7k figure. And being Garmin I doubt the 335 is necessarily the lowest cost option, just one example.

On a budget there are plenty of portable "In" solutions that do not require money to be delivered to an avionics installer, and there's no requirement to buy any of them to keep flying in controlled airspace.
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I believe your installation time is optimistic. And the overall cost is missing the required extra pieces. I don't see total out the door for less than 6000.
 
paflyer said:
If you have a certified aircraft, damned straight. This is not "owner maintenance."
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Never said it was owner mx, though A owner could help pull panels and whatnot.

So I need a avionics specific shop to install something like what nav worx had made??
 
FormerHangie said:
We have the same issue in Atlanta. The close in airports are at full capacity, and really don't have any way of expanding, short of devouring the homes and businesses around them.
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We have plenty of land here -- check out KEDC in Google earth. But the owner is not the least bit interested in building more hangars. They can't make their ROI numbers justify the business decision. I was told it would take over 10 years to pay off a row of T hangars. It completely baffles me why it would cost so much to build.
 
mfisher said:
It completely baffles me why it would cost so much to build.
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In order to accurately know how much it costs to build hangars you need a contractor that has done it in a similar cost structure area. The reason it seems high to you is you have left things out. One thing you may have left out is grading and ramp building. Grading is critical with hangars because if its too steep you wont be able to push the plane into the hangar. Drawings and specifications have to be made. Its not just the hangar, but someone has to build and pave the ramp. Drainage is always a problem that has to be solved and that costs money. Then there are complying with zoning, licensing, building codes etc. Utilities are a big variable expense. Add 15% for profit and OH and 7.5% for contingency and it adds up. Takes 3 months to plan the project (assuming you have financing assured) and 3 months to build. If the contractor has to borrow the money and construction loans are EXPENSIVE there is that. Only by doing it and keeping track of everything do you know in advance how much it will cost and that is not precise because unexpected problems can occur (thus the contingency money). Good luck!

Building supply places used to advertise garage packages. Everything you need to build a garage! (that you can get from a lumber company). Turns out it costs 2 or 3 times that to actually build one. Just the way things are.

Building costs always seem really high. Commercial building costs are even higher. Getting accurate construction cost estimates is hard because they are always changing and contractors dont share it because it cost them money to find out how much things cost because they had to do it to find out!
 
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EppyGA said:
To the OP, how often do you talk to folks about GA and the benefits of GA? Ever struck up a conversation with someone at work or a total stranger about flying?

Our EAA chapter does Eagle Flights on a regular basis as well as monthly Young Eagle rallies. We have a group of young folks building an Ultra-Lite Pietenpol and earning flight training credits. Adults are building an RV-12 that will end up in a Flying club allowing those that may only be able to do Sport Pilot a chance to go fly.

Just yesterday I went grocery shopping and a young lady brought the cart to the car. On the way we began a conversation about flying and she related how she has flown commercially, but was scared to death. She says she's scared of heights. We talked a bit and I told her about the EAA and if she wanted to fly sometime to let me know. She showed some interest and thought it might help her with her fear. Maybe someday I'll hear from her.
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I really like a lot of your points here! The general public literally has no clue about GA. Most of the conversations I have with people involve the crashes and how small planes are not maintained. I do my best to educate them otherwise but honestly most people don't care. We live in a country where most people get great satisfaction out of doing almost nothing each and everyday and the thought of going out, learning something new, taking your own life in your hands and having enough self confidence to fly a plane-- simply put, most shy away from that!

The truth is, GA could rebound if the costs of planes was more in line with incomes. The price of a new plane is absurd and the 50 year old affordable planes are 50 years old. I would buy a plane tomorrow if I could get something relatively new( less than 20 years old) well taken care of, easily maintained and seats 4-6 people for 25,000. That plane does not exsist as far as I can see( someone show me one please!!!!)

The last thing from me on this topic is, while I applaud the efforts of those who try and attract the teenagers into flying that's likely a waste if you want to increase GA. Any kid you get into the cockpit is flying with you either because they fell in love with flying already( and will likely go the airline route) or have a passing interest. Those with a passing interest will then discover how expensive it is to get a license and fly will become discouraged and likely give up. AOPA is going about it the right way! They are encouraging clubs and getting non current pilots back. Those people have the desire and financial means in place.

I hope to see GA rebound under the Trump presidency. He's clearly a user of GA and I think the next several years are important. I'm a young pilot and I'd like to have this freedom continue forever!
 
jspilot said:
The last thing from me on this topic is, while I applaud the efforts of those who try and attract the teenagers into flying that's likely a waste if you want to increase GA. Any kid you get into the cockpit is flying with you either because they fell in love with flying already( and will likely go the airline route) or have a passing interest. Those with a passing interest will then discover how expensive it is to get a license and fly will become discouraged and likely give up. AOPA is going about it the right way! They are encouraging clubs and getting non current pilots back. Those people have the desire and financial means in place.
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We also do a fair number of Eagle flights each year. I did one in 2015 for someone I used to work with. He subsequently joined a club, got his PPL and is now working on his IA. I flew with him the past Wednesday as safety pilot as he's preparing for his check ride.
 
EppyGA said:
We also do a fair number of Eagle flights each year. I did one in 2015 for someone I used to work with. He subsequently joined a club, got his PPL and is now working on his IA. I flew with him the past Wednesday as safety pilot as he's preparing for his check ride.
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That's great and I think these are the kinds of efforts that really will increase the pilot population. Since the idea of this thread is how to save GA( not how to get young people motivated to fly) I'm simply just looking at this from a problem/solution standpoint. I'd much rather invest my time with the youth of this country but those results won't be for many years and may never pan out as planned.
 
James331 said:
Never said it was owner mx, though A owner could help pull panels and whatnot.

So I need a avionics specific shop to install something like what nav worx had made??
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Yep.
 
paflyer said:
Yep.
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Show me the reg

For testing yeah, but for a remove and replace???

What stops me from say installing the next version of a nav worx, flying with it off to a avionic$ shop, having them test it, and calling it a day.
 
One would think that of all the posts on this, someone would have installed ADS-B out and be able to tell us how much it cost.
 
I'd say there are multiple factors, but one obvious factor is simply the economy. Despite what politicians like to say, we have not recovered from 2008 yet so there simply aren't as many people with money looking for places to spend it.
I live in Omaha, NE and our economy on average has been doing pretty good and the flight schools are insanely busy. The flight school I went to can't find enough CFI's and my instructor is typically booked 30 days out.
 
The resurrection of GA will be amazing and huge, when personal auto-piloting drones become commonplace. I'd guess 10-15 years.
 
brien23 said:
One would think that of all the posts on this, someone would have installed ADS-B out and be able to tell us how much it cost.
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We just upgraded our '66 Cherokee 180C to ADS-B in/out along with a bunch of other avionics upgrades. Brand new Garmin GTX 345 transponder, refurbished Garmin 530W GPS/radio/display. $22K installed. If anyone is interested, I can get pricing details.
 
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