Will General Aviation Survive

brien23

brien23

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Brien
It's the end of 2016 and GA seems to still be in a death spiral. Fewer pilots in GA, sure pilot training for the airline jobs is good but those pilots once they get in the airlines are not going to get back into a C-150 or any other GA any more. Cessna Piper Mooney produce very few new planes compared to the golden years. Too little too late with the cost of flying, Pilot's Bill of Rights 2 and third class medical reform people have other interest. Almost all the lower end planes listed in trade-a-plane do not have ADS-B installed, the closer we get to 2020 I expect the listings will grow to that of the Chicago phone book in planes for sale. Sure their will be those that say GA is on the rebound and see what they want to see, others that deal in fact know better.
 
I sold my airplane 4 years ago because of the expense of equipping with ADS-B out.

If I ever fly again will depend on the third class medical reform implementation and how my retirement goes...
 
It's not doom and gloom but GA is not without its challenges. Death spiral - don't know about that. Cirrus is selling well.

Fewer pilots, fewer hours being flown, not attracting young pilots, and increasing costs are all real concerns.

Ads-b not being installed is a money issue that seems to be getting cheaper as we get closer to the date.
 
I wouldn't call it a death spiral, but certainly a steady decline. My local airports have been noticeably less busy over the past few years. While I'm based at a "bigger" airport that has a lot of jet traffic, there are quite a few GA aircraft based there. I rarely see much activity. The airport I used to fly out of, which at one point was THE GA airport in town, usually feels like a (relative) ghost town these days.
 
Some regions are hurting more than others but things aren't as doom and gloom as you think. GA has its challenges but there are a lot of positives too. Fly around the northeast corridor in the summer and you certainly won't think GA is in a "death spiral." Friend of mine in the area said their flying club has a waitlist for the first time in many years and it keeps getting longer.

Forces in the airline industry with the continuing wave of retirements is causing big pay bumps at the regionals and a bigger push for getting more new pilots in the pipeline. For every negative bit one can find there are positive things out there too, just depends on your attitude honestly if you see the glass half full or half empty.
 
brien23 said:
pilot training for the airline jobs is good but those pilots once they get in the airlines are not going to get back into a C-150 or any other GA any more.
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Where did you get this information?

The GA crowd definitely seems less abundant than it was 10 years ago.
 
There are plenty of us airline pilots that come back to GA. I think too that a lot of the drone dorks will be interested in becoming more than just aerial voyeurs and slide over. It won't be the traditional airframes and training programs that grab their interest but rather the new stuff which we need more of.
 
GLMS_NC said:
It's not doom and gloom but GA is not without its challenges. Death spiral - don't know about that. Cirrus is selling well.
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???

Cirrus sold just 301 airplanes last year. That is less than 10% of the total number of Lamborghinis sold in the same year.

Death spiral is accurate.
 
After hangar rent, insurance, taxes, FF subscription, maintenance, repairs and fuel, $275/hr for 30-40 hrs/yr is hard for us average Americans to come up with. Then add car rental, lodging, food and destination fun times. It is hard for many families to justify the expenses. We are still doing it, but have given up a lot of other things. Once the job market improves, I think we may see some improvements in GA.
 
We bought our hangar from the widow of a WWII vet friend. Many of us hung out at his (now our) hangar to hear his great stories about fighting the Japs in P-40s.

Oh, and he also had open bar, every day. :)

After we bought the hangar, the gang soldiered on, but, one by one, they have been forced out of flying by health, age, and finances. Of the gang that, just 4 years ago, made for a lively and thriving airport, it's just us and one other pilot left.

And he is 84.

If fly-in business (at our aviation themed hotel) is any measure of GA's health, it is in hospice care. Never more than 5% of our total business, it's now down to 2% or less. And declining. Our Lexus airport courtesy car more often needs maintenance due to disuse rather than wear. Where once we banned pilots from taking it off the island, we now encourage them to take 'er out on the highway to go see the USS Lexington, just to blow the carbon out.

Sure, there are bright spots here and there, but overall GA is fading fast. Mary and I still fly a couple of times a week, but we sadly usually have the skies to ourselves.

My advice to all: Get out and FLY.
 
We need more people to go out and fly ,rather than talk about GAs death. The more people that fly and encourage others to join the GA rAnks the better. I try to fly twice a week and do young eagles every month.
 
brien23 said:
It's the end of 2016 and GA seems to still be in a death spiral. Fewer pilots in GA, sure pilot training for the airline jobs is good but those pilots once they get in the airlines are not going to get back into a C-150 or any other GA any more. Cessna Piper Mooney produce very few new planes compared to the golden years. Too little too late with the cost of flying, Pilot's Bill of Rights 2 and third class medical reform people have other interest. Almost all the lower end planes listed in trade-a-plane do not have ADS-B installed, the closer we get to 2020 I expect the listings will grow to that of the Chicago phone book in planes for sale. Sure their will be those that say GA is on the rebound and see what they want to see, others that deal in fact know better.
Click to expand...

Oh lolz

sky-is-falling.jpg



BTW you do know, depite the avionics shops and the FAAs best marketing attempts, ADSB is NOT mandatory, and not needed in MOST of the US...


BTW2, I'm not a airline guy, but I am a working ATP, I'd say about 30% of my working pilot buddies own their own planes, and all but one start knocking on my door in spring to go up in my floatplane, lots of folks get into aviation for a living because they love flying, if you don't like flying there are TONS of other jobs with much less responsibility, lower costs of admission and pay quite a bit more, there are some sad folks who get into it for the image or some other such nonsense, but most do love flying and most would love to take a J3 around the patch at a grass field or spash into some lakes in a seaplane.
 
brien23 said:
Fewer pilots in GA, sure pilot training for the airline jobs is good but those pilots once they get in the airlines are not going to get back into a C-150 or any other GA any more.
Click to expand...

Not entirely true, Brien. I am a member of the Cessna 150/152 club and we have several airline pilots as members who own C-150's. There is a difference between flying somebody else's airplane and flying your own airplane, and airline pilots know more than most that a C-150 is a real value. Those airline pilots who truly love to fly will likely keep flying. As far a PBOR2, AOPA's efforts with flying clubs, etc., I think they are starting to help but there is a long way to go. Kind of a Catch 22. Flying is an expensive hobby, and the fewer of us flying the more expensive it gets for those of us who still are flying. We can all contribute to the solution by flying more! I am trying to do my part. :)
 
It seems OSH and Sun 'n Fun attendance is still high every year. That indicates a lot interest.

Sure, it's a hobby that most of the US doesn't understand. Something like I don't the first thing about spelunking, but people love doing it.

My small exposure to GA is 3 flight schools in TX and 3 in CA. Over the 10 years I've been actively flying they have all grown in equipment and instructors. Does that mean more students or dumb business owners?

Also, I've been in 2 clubs in TX and 1 in CA. All are still active.

My OPINION is that GA might not be expanding, but it doesn't seem to be on it's death bed either.
 
To the OP, how often do you talk to folks about GA and the benefits of GA? Ever struck up a conversation with someone at work or a total stranger about flying?

Our EAA chapter does Eagle Flights on a regular basis as well as monthly Young Eagle rallies. We have a group of young folks building an Ultra-Lite Pietenpol and earning flight training credits. Adults are building an RV-12 that will end up in a Flying club allowing those that may only be able to do Sport Pilot a chance to go fly.

Just yesterday I went grocery shopping and a young lady brought the cart to the car. On the way we began a conversation about flying and she related how she has flown commercially, but was scared to death. She says she's scared of heights. We talked a bit and I told her about the EAA and if she wanted to fly sometime to let me know. She showed some interest and thought it might help her with her fear. Maybe someday I'll hear from her.
 
MY airport seems to be growing. Lots of older guys for sure, but some young guys as well.
 
Ravioli said:
It seems OSH and Sun 'n Fun attendance is still high every year. That indicates a lot interest.

Sure, it's a hobby that most of the US doesn't understand. Something like I don't the first thing about spelunking, but people love doing it.

My small exposure to GA is 3 flight schools in TX and 3 in CA. Over the 10 years I've been actively flying they have all grown in equipment and instructors. Does that mean more students or dumb business owners?

Also, I've been in 2 clubs in TX and 1 in CA. All are still active.

My OPINION is that GA might not be expanding, but it doesn't seem to be on it's death bed either.
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There are definitely still pockets of GA success. OSH and SNF continue to punch above their weight, thankfully.

Large metro areas like Houston, Austin, and Dallas still have lots of GA, by sheer weight of numbers.

Most of the country, however, is dormant. We try to fly into different GA airports across Texas, and rarely see any activity.
 
I still get to fly GA when I'm not working and so do most of the people I've talked to at my company. No I don't think it's a death spiral.
 
It will survive. It might continue shrinking. But some people will always want to fly. All these antique airplanes...
So long as we have airports and fuel.
 
There was a similar thread over on the redboard and I'll repeat what I posted over there:

Everyone talks about costs. While I do think that buy in costs do affect the industry, I don't think it's to the level everyone assumes.

There's been an overall demographic shift away from aviation, and even if you had 1965 costs adjusted for inflation, it wouldn't make any meaningful change in the number of people who participate simply because people have far less disposable income and time now than they did.

You might pick some up in the margins, but there are so many other costs of living that are competing for the almighty dollar these days vs the mid 60s, that even with inflation-only cost increases, you are fighting a losing battle against health care, child care, self-funding the retirement, maintaining the McMansion, college expenses, 2 SUVs, cable TV, cellphones for the whole family, heavily scripted and costly activities for the kids (plus bottled water vs water from the hose) and the list goes on and on.

"Productivity" in the US has been on a bender since the late 1980s...and while that's good for business owners, it's bad for employees because they're working more/harder, which means less time in life for everything else. People are constantly doing work on their own time, because if they don't, they get "left behind" by the insane productivity cycle we've created. Futzing with airplanes at the airport is not very family friendly, and because two parents usually work these days, what spare time is left over is dedicated to "family time".

More so than the lack of money, it's a lack of time.

Time is the precious resource these days. Most people, even in the upper middle class, are in a mad scramble to maintain their life-style. The only people who I see who aren't in a frenzy have some kind of paid defined benefit retirement along with paid health care and usually no kids.

The people who have the time these days, generally have the money to participate, because they're doing well enough to have spare time. Want to know why a 182 costs half a mil? Because that's the demographic that has the time.

Like the song says "no time for my watch and chain". The LSAs failed because of this. Sure, they were expensive for what you got, but it still takes the same amount of time. Which most people don't have these days.

Richman
 
Yes, General Aviation as we know it will most likely die with the PPL decline, cost of new GA aircraft, retiring of older fleet and encroachment of civilization into airfields. We are seeing all that before our eyes.

But we have not yet reached the age of the George Jetson. Technology and innovation have yet to really take hold in aviation...yeah we have the Icon A5 and a few other players making a stab at the proverbial "flying car" but the resurgence will come when the new innovation meets practicality.

Heck, look at drone technology. We can not be far off from a drone that can carry a human reliably and safely and be a practical means of transportation.
 
brien23 said:
It's the end of 2016 and GA seems to still be in a death spiral. Fewer pilots in GA, sure pilot training for the airline jobs is good but those pilots once they get in the airlines are not going to get back into a C-150 or any other GA any more. Cessna Piper Mooney produce very few new planes compared to the golden years. Too little too late with the cost of flying, Pilot's Bill of Rights 2 and third class medical reform people have other interest. Almost all the lower end planes listed in trade-a-plane do not have ADS-B installed, the closer we get to 2020 I expect the listings will grow to that of the Chicago phone book in planes for sale. Sure their will be those that say GA is on the rebound and see what they want to see, others that deal in fact know better.
Click to expand...

So, you really aren't asking the question "Will General Aviation survive?", you are pronouncing its demise?
 
The feeling I get is that there is a large interest in GA, but there are no modern aircraft, and the small flight school owners (1 to 15 aircraft) are not the greatest marketers or managers. Properly capitalize a flight school and professionally manage and market it and you will see some sparks fly. Run an aircraft broker under the same roof.

What I think is the really disturbing thing is that when the fairly large stable of 1970s vintage aircraft starts turning to dust, what are we going to do? Production shut off in the 80s, and the Cessnas and Pipers that were built in the 90s and on are still obscenely/prohibitively expensive. If someone finds a way to build a comfortable IFR certified 4 seater and sell it for a reasonable price, you'll have what the 172/Archer/Cherokee was to the 60s/70s.
 
Richman67 nailed it. When I talk to my kids about flying [ early 30's] they get excited but always reference "time" and the busy-ness of their schedules. Most of the pilots at the local, rural airport are in their 60's and only one pilot in his late 20's. Also, no planes for rent at the local airport by so we have to drive one hour for a rental. That's a one hour drive, pre-flight and fuel, followed by an one hour flight, push back, and then a one hour drive home. Thus my flying hobby consumes about a half day per week. I enjoy my flying hobby but the "time" commitment can be a challenge. Bottom line is I need my own plane at the local airport to better manage my "time".
 
For those who think GA in not in danger just how many new airports have you seen. Almost any small airport—and some large ones—have the potential to be threatened with extinction. Unfortunately, an airport closed is an airport gone forever. When I am asked about a future as a A&P I tell people find another profession unless you want to do it for the fun of it. For the training required and time spent along with the cost for a A&P you can do better flipping burgers.
 
^^^ so why ask the question if your mind is already made up? You and Tom-D should go hang out. ;)
 
Bob Noel said:
I sold my airplane 4 years ago because of the expense of equipping with ADS-B out.

If I ever fly again will depend on the third class medical reform implementation and how my retirement goes...
Click to expand...
 
Hope that ADS-B out cost will put a lot of aircraft on the market in 2020 - about the time I will have saved up enough money to buy one(don't like financing one). Last time I owned an airplane or even flew stayed out of class C airspace. If I need to take someone to an airport to catch a flight I will drive them. The global economy has been bad for GA, as well as too many lawyers(product liability cost), people expecting tp live to be 100 and trying to finance it, and the general avoidance of risk or adventure. Still think GA will always be around.
 
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GA will be around, until we are expected to pay our own way, then it will dry up quicker than you can blink.

I fly around and land at lots of empty, out of the way airports, ones with no FBO's, 1 or 2 planes tied down. And cities continue to fund the upkeep, for me to have some place to fly. There is one that is across the street from a general store, doesn't even have a tie down that I know of, but the Town/County maintains it. I land there, walk across the highway and buy a soda and a snack. $3 of "economic benefit".

The airport I am based at has 302 aircraft based at it with 197 operations per day. According to AirNav. There may be 302 aircraft there, but I think that number is generous. But, there are not 197 operations there, unless you are counting a touch and go as an operation. I think our City has 3 full time employees managing the airport, plus equipment, etc... I doubt my $2000 a year in hangar rent is paying my share.

And, that is one of the healthier airports around.

Don't get started on the weather briefings, flight following, and ATC that I get, for free.
 
It seems like one of these threads pops up about every six months. If you look at the FAA's stats, you'll see a slow decline in the number of pilots, particularly private pilots. There is a large group of private pilots in the 50-69 age bracket, and as these folks age out of flying, the group that will replace them is somewhat smaller. Student starts are off somewhat over the last few years, and fairly substantially from 10 years ago, but as always, the vast majority of student pilots are under 35. If you look at avgas sales stats, you also see a slow decline in the amount sold. So, no death spiral, just a steady shrinkage.

One of the issues that we're all facing is that the better paying jobs are increasingly in urban areas where the cost of living, and particularly the cost of flying are high. I also share NKTFlyer's concern on what future pilots are going to fly, we can't keep flying the same aircraft forever.
 
Mark my words, the Raptor and the Icon will both save GA from the death spiral. ;)
 
Of course GA is going away! Unless you are in a position to not blink an eye at the cost of a rebuild. Most people I talk to are blown away at the costs. For the working class people like myself, experimental is the on,y way to afford flying and even then you have to do away with other fun things and most families can find better ways to spend money that will benefit everyone, not just the pilot. Look at how much it costs just to get a ppl! That kind of money would be better spent on a boob job or the kids education, but the folks in aviation think that throwing money at things is the only answer, I would continue to rant but I have to go be with my family.
 
I belong to a NY Area club that has 2 Bonanzas, two Arrows, two Archers and a Cirrus SR-20 Gen 2 in the fleet. We have a limit of 80 members and we have a waiting list for new members. If GA is dying we have not gotten the message yet...

We are beginning to think about expanding the fleet... again!

-Skip
 
46 year old here and I love GA. Nobody here has a crystal ball and can predict the future. There are some factors that make people fearful of aviation. How does the media portray aviation on T.V. not very well. It's always doom and gloom. Now let's talk about cars and the commercials on T.V. look at how cars are advertised. IMO if airplanes were advertised positively you would have more interest.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk
 
The promise of a brighter future is out there.

This is an EXPENSIVE hobby, flying has never been cheap.
The Decline of GA runs in tandem with the destruction of the American Middle Class. This fact is indisputable, and you cannot get away from the political aspects of it. There is now the promise of a more prosperous future for America's middle class, and with it the wealth for those that have an interest in flying to follow through on those dreams.

Tech advances are starting to make a real difference, as seen in the dozens of new designs out there. The new certification rules, and other BIG legislative changes looming should make entry-level flying easier, and more affordable.

But, in the end, it is up to US to be the ambassadors for what we do, and to find someone to pass our love for it on to. Not sometime in the future, but RIGHT NOW.
I'm betting we all know someone who has the bug, but doesn't know how to follow through on it.

I spent $200 bucks to buy my nephew's wife a good discovery flight for the holidays, now she is starting lessons in March, and already working on the King/Cessna school.
YOUR TURN...
 
I can also honestly say that I have gotten 4 people that were interested in GA to start taking lessons again and I'm a very low time pilot myself, (55 Hrs). I'm not campaigning just flying and enjoying myself doing it. If you love flying it will show in your enthusiasm and people want a part of that. Some in fact call me the crazy pilot dude, but my philosophy is if people, (Lemmings) are calling me crazy I'm going in the right direction.
 
@Richman67 hit the nail on the head.

The major issue why more folks aren't flying is because of their children and keeping up with the jones.

I'll lay it out.

Back in the good old days....Pops went to work and mom either stayed home or had a really laid back part time job. The kids went to public school, took the bus to school, played school sports or maybe public rec sports.


These days....with the completely ridiculousness of travel sports and having to go to private school....you could fund the operation of a turbo prop. I am being serious.
 
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