Will GA aircraft ever go extinct?

RyanB

RyanB

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Kind of an off the wall question, but something I've thought of. As the NTSB says, there are roughly 1500 GA accidents per year. Some of these may not include prop strikes, gear collapses etc. so the question is, i know there are alot of 172's out there even older ones. But for the ones that suffer a prop strike or a gear collapse, and become a write-off and the owner doesnt get it repaired and returned to service for $$ and they just become scrap metal. Eventually the amount of GA aircraft in the US would decrease. Im sure there are not an enormous amount of personal buyers that purchase new aircraft, so the fleet doesnt get replinished. What are the stats that after an aircraft has a gear collapse or prop strike get fixed to fly again and how many just become insurance write offs?

Tell me if this is a dumb thing to ask, just something I have thought about.
 
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Best thing for GA would be a mega super country wide tornado wrecking all the vanilla metal GA planes still in service. There'd be a lot of funky cheap replacements(example) but being forced to replace the fleet would be a good thing. Think of opening a Honda dealership in Cuba. Same idea.
 
Ryanb said:
Kind of an off the wall question, but something I've thought of. As the NTSB says, there are roughly 1500 GA accidents per year. Some of these may not include prop strikes, gear collapses etc. so the question is, i know there are alot of 172's out there even older ones. But for the ones that suffer a prop strike or a gear collapse, and become a write-off and the owner doesnt get it repaired and returned to service for $$ and they just become scrap metal. Eventually the amount of GA aircraft in the US would decrease. Im sure there are not an enormous amount of personal buyers that purchase new aircraft, so the fleet doesnt get replinished. What are the stats that after an aircraft has a gear collapse or prop strike get fixed to fly again and how many just become insurance write offs?

Tell me if this is a dumb thing to ask, just something I have thought about.
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Every year, "w" number of GA planes are written off, and scrapped.

Every year, "x" number of GA planes are built.

Every year, "y" number of pilots die/lose their medical/quit flying.

Every year, "z" number of pilots gain their certificate.

I'm sure someone can write an equation that will answer your question.
 
NO, because there will always be corporate and charter outfits, and those are GA. Well, eventually it may, but I doubt it will be during any of our lifetimes.
 
I asked a similar question on this board a while back and from the answers I came to the conclusion that the decline in the active pilot population is and will be greater than the decline in the airworthy general aviation fleet.


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With the middle class going downhill and current aircraft fifty, sixty years old it's not hard to imagine this happening.
 
I don't see it going extinct here. Even in Europe it isn't extinct, although it is basically limited to the very wealthy. GA still does and I believe in this country always will serve an important business function, plus make sense for some personal use.

I view the biggest negative today as the lack of new piston twins being sold on the market, because as the legacy piston twin fleet continues to age this will result in you basically having the option of an SR22/Malibu or a TBM/PC12/Meridian/King Air, with no in between. There are people looking for the middle ground who don't like some of the dollar signs associated with turbines but need more than a PA46 can provide.
 
GA Euro style. Which if the intent is to fly for flying sake is fine.
Ted DuPuis said:
I don't see it going extinct here. Even in Europe it isn't extinct, although it is basically limited to the very wealthy. GA still does and I believe in this country always will serve an important business function, plus make sense for some personal use.
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I don't worry about the airplanes, I worry about the airports. What if all the airports in smallish towns closed or stopped being maintained? We'd lose a good chunk of places we could land, and travel by GA would become even more impractical.
 
My future prediction: It will always be here. It will continue to be more expensive. Airports will close down, driving costs up higher at those that remain open. Drones will evolve into the flying cars we dreamed of as kids. The Cirrus Jet will get pressurized and fly above 35K ft, but will have a price tag close to $4mil.
 
Airports won't close except in crazy places like CA. Most everywhere else the federal money and jobs outweigh market demand and returns on strip mall/housing. Of course the way things go people won't want to deal with gov't airports as all the little b'crat rules pile up. Same as the legacy fleet, we'd be better off scrapping most municipal airports let people build them if they want them.
 
People will always want to fly, be their own pilot. It will continue. No one really knows, but there really is LOTS of oil, but...its not infinite. Someday we will need an alternative. Probably electric of some kind. What else is there? Some kind of power pack that can propel engines. In the meantime... we have Cessna 172's! and all the others. Go to Oshkosh. Its amazing what there is.
 
Airplanes don't need to land on airports ya know.
 
JasonM said:
My future prediction: It will always be here.
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Well eventually Earth will no longer support life. Not sure GA will survive a move to a new solar system. :)
 
I was talking to an adult airplane nerd plane spotter guy in his mid 30s who found out I was a Private Pilot. He explained loved airplanes and liked photographing airliners at the local International Airport (MSP), however, he was not a pilot.

Through his knowledge of airplanes, he had determined that he needed a turbine powered plane to do what he wanted and either a Cessna Caravan or a King Air and asked whether or not the average middle class person could afford one.

I was like: :eek:

So I asked how he defined middle class.

His answer: $50k/yr annual income.

:(

I told him if he was realistic about being a pilot vs. just daydreaming and actually flying places then a 4 cylinder plane with 360 cu.in. or smaller owned in a partnership or rented through a flying club is probably a better option.

He basically sneered at that. :rolleyes:
 
Blame flying mag for that attitude. Of course if he has a bunch of kids he does need a turbine. Anyway I'm convinced most people want to watch things they like not do them. Yes we are a pile of self selected exceptions.
MSPAviator said:
I was talking to an adult airplane nerd plane spotter guy in his mid 30s who found out I was a Private Pilot. He explained loved airplanes and liked photographing airliners at the local International Airport (MSP), however, he was not a pilot.

Through his knowledge of airplanes, he had determined that he needed a turbine powered plane to do what he wanted and either a Cessna Caravan or a King Air and asked whether or not the average middle class person could afford one.

I was like: :eek:

So I asked how he defined middle class.

His answer: $50k/yr annual income.

:(

I told him if he was realistic about being a pilot vs. just daydreaming and actually flying places then a 4 cylinder plane with 360 cu.in. or smaller owned in a partnership or rented through a flying club is probably a better option.

He basically sneered at that. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
 
the fifty plus year old bugsmasher will eventually be replaced by 20-30 year old cirruses. hence, ga will be alive.
 
I've often worried that a tornado or big hail storm at the wrong time in Wisconsin could wield a devastating blow to general aviation in the US.

bilde
 
cirrusmx said:
the fifty plus year old bugsmasher will eventually be replaced by 20-30 year old cirruses. hence, ga will be alive.
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Is it realistic to expect a composite molded airframe such as the cirrus to have the longevity of a metal rivet job like the cessna/piper series circa 1960s? I don't see composites having that kind of operational longevity.
 
hindsight2020 said:
Is it realistic to expect a composite molded airframe such as the cirrus to have the longevity of a metal rivet job like the cessna/piper series circa 1960s? I don't see composites having that kind of operational longevity.
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We have 50 year old composite sailplanes doing fine. Some engineers figured out composite airframes will last longer then metal ones.
 
I often ask this question every time I walk an airport and look at planes that appear to have not been touched in the last five years...
 
Silvaire said:
I've often worried that a tornado or big hail storm at the wrong time in Wisconsin could wield a devastating blow to general aviation in the US.
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I wouldn't worry about it. Mud'n'Fun a few years ago didn't seem to make a dent.
 
Yeah, just makes you wonder how many GA aircraft are out there in service, and how many are flying vs. sitting with damage or with cobwebs growing under the cowl.
 
Ryanb said:
Yeah, just makes you wonder how many GA aircraft are out there in service, and how many are flying vs. sitting with damage or with cobwebs growing under the cowl.
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But then you see things like a booming experimental market. There's multiple sides to it.
 
MSPAviator said:
I was talking to an adult airplane nerd plane spotter guy in his mid 30s who found out I was a Private Pilot. He explained loved airplanes and liked photographing airliners at the local International Airport (MSP), however, he was not a pilot.

Through his knowledge of airplanes, he had determined that he needed a turbine powered plane to do what he wanted and either a Cessna Caravan or a King Air and asked whether or not the average middle class person could afford one.

I was like: :eek:

So I asked how he defined middle class.

His answer: $50k/yr annual income.

:(

I told him if he was realistic about being a pilot vs. just daydreaming and actually flying places then a 4 cylinder plane with 360 cu.in. or smaller owned in a partnership or rented through a flying club is probably a better option.

He basically sneered at that. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
Yeah. 50k per year won't even pay for operating the turbo prop.


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If I were king and wanted to expand GA I would....

1. Eliminate the 3rd class medical
2. Figure out a way to keep airplane fuel close to auto gas prices (my fear is the new no lead will be even more than 100LL)
3. Change the annual requirement to 2 or possibly 3 years or a set number of hours for personally owned non-rental aircraft.
4. I would tie insurance to the aircraft not the pilot similar to vehicles.
 
DFH65 said:
If I were king and wanted to expand GA I would....

1. Eliminate the 3rd class medical
2. Figure out a way to keep airplane fuel close to auto gas prices (my fear is the new no lead will be even more than 100LL)
3. Change the annual requirement to 2 or possibly 3 years or a set number of hours for personally owned non-rental aircraft.
4. I would tie insurance to the aircraft not the pilot similar to vehicles.
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1) LSA (although I'm all for a total elimination)
2) Experimental, use unleaded like Gecko does
3) There are a lot of crappy airplanes out there. Don't agree.
4) That's how it is today. The 310's insurance is on the plane. I'm the only named pilot, but there's an open pilot clause with experience requirements.
 
F01LA said:
I don't worry about the airplanes, I worry about the airports. What if all the airports in smallish towns closed or stopped being maintained? We'd lose a good chunk of places we could land, and travel by GA would become even more impractical.
Click to expand...


http://www.airfields-freeman.com

Borrowing a photo from there, here's where I first solo'ed in a C-150...

3a548881081b9732f11a1d488d0340af.jpg


And here's what's left of one that I flew to many times... No airplanes there anymore, plenty of hangars, two active helipads.

bfcdb51e39e924cf51a2f9301c0250b4.jpg
 
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