Will Cirrus SR used prices drop once the Vision Jet is out?

Somedudeintn

Somedudeintn

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I was just browsing the used market for SR20 and 22's and was curious if there will be more used planes to hit the market once the jet comes out. I'm assuming there are a few 22 owners that will upgrade and get rid of their 22. Any thoughts?

I'm thinking it may not be a huge market of 22 owners moving up to the jet to impact things much. I'm just dreaming of being able to afford a parachute plane one of these days, you know because I'm not a "real pilot".
 
Only if the price of the jet is comparable to that of SR20 and 22's

The prices of used Camaros don't drop when a new Lamborghini comes out - they aren't even in the same price class.
 
I was thinking more so supply and demand. If 100 sr22 owners buy a vision jet and sell their 22s on he used market there is increased Supply. Increased supply will drive the price down until supply and demand match. Demand will increase when prices decrease.

I just don't know if there will be much of a supply influx.
 
EdFred said:
The prices of used Camaros don't drop when a new Lamborghini comes out - they aren't even in the same price class.
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Agreed, but I was thinking that Cirrus is marketing their jet to a few of their well of current 22 owners.
 
EdFred said:
The guys looking to buy a jet (probably) don't own SR22's
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Although I agree with you that is not how Cirrus is selling it. I would have expected the markets to be very different but that may not be the case, at least according to the manufacturer-

I was listening to a podcast last night (Stuck Mic) and they had the VP of Cirrus sales or something. His whole selling angle is for people who already own a SR-22 (mainly small business customers) and need a "little more" from their plane. They say that they already have 600 pre orders and the majority of people currently own a -22.

He even went as far to say as a -22 is a good trainer to get ready for the jet. They made a special emphasis to put controls in the same spots on both machines, etc.
 
But unless they have them in the same price range as a new -22 I doubt their market is what they say it is. Of course I would never doubt any advertising or marketing of any company, ever. ;)
 
Define affordable. Sub-75K? Nope. 20-25 years maybe, aka non-starter. Fly what you can afford today bud, tomorrow is not owed to anyone.
 
neilw2 said:
Although I agree with you that is not how Cirrus is selling it.
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They really have pushed the similarity between the SR22 and the Vision Jet, and at least for a while gave discounts on SR22's to those buying jet positions.

From my involvement in COPA, I'd say a lot of potential Vision Jet owners are coming from the ranks of piston Cirrus owners.
 
If anything it will knock a few T-G5s from the 700s into the 600s.

I doubt it would do anything on the lower end.
 
Whenever there are more planes than buyers, prices drop. I suspect the surplus of high end SR-22s on the market as a result of Vision Jet upgrades will not be in sufficient numbers to result in any measurable price drop.
 
neilw2 said:
Although I agree with you that is not how Cirrus is selling it. I would have expected the markets to be very different but that may not be the case, at least according to the manufacturer-

I was listening to a podcast last night (Stuck Mic) and they had the VP of Cirrus sales or something. His whole selling angle is for people who already own a SR-22 (mainly small business customers) and need a "little more" from their plane. They say that they already have 600 pre orders and the majority of people currently own a -22.

He even went as far to say as a -22 is a good trainer to get ready for the jet. They made a special emphasis to put controls in the same spots on both machines, etc.
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Thanks for listening! That was my interview with Ben Kowalski on the SMAC. You are absolutely right as far as the marketing of the Jet. It seems they're trying to eventually reach a version of what most manufacturers tried in the 70's - learn in a Cirrus (SR20), upgrade to a Cirrus (SR22), then upgrade again to a Cirrus (Vision Jet). Not much different than the Piper PA-28, PA-32, PA-34 progression or Beech Tomahawk, Bonanza, Baron progression.

From the people I talked to at Oshkosh outside of the interview, there seemed to be a lot of interest in the Vision Jet among current Cirrus SR22 owners. I think there actually is some crossover in the types of people that would be interested in both. Heck, you can run the price of a new SR22 up to almost a million dollars right now. If you're laying out that kind of money for an airplane, most likely you have a good business purpose for it. And if that's the case, a jet that costs likely a little over double that might not be too hard of a sell.

At least that seems to be the angle Cirrus is going for. Time will tell, and we'll see!
 
EdFred said:
The guys looking to buy a jet (probably) don't own SR22's
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Some don't but many do. From what I understand the majority of deposit holders are current piston SR22 owners. Not that hard to stretch to $1.5-2M for a lot of folks who paid $900K for a new G5 SR22T. Moving customers up your product line is a well established approach for all the vehicle (car, boat, airplane, etc..) manufacturers.

But to get back to the OP's question, I would expect to see a little bit of price pressure on 1-3 year old SR22 G5Ts because that is mostly what position holders will be getting out of and they've been staying pretty high lately, but the SF50 sales will be at a much more measured pace than the 300+ SR2X that Cirrus is selling per year so I don't expect a huge impact and none to virtually none on the earlier G1, G2 or probably even G3 airframes.
 
aren't there already a sht-ton of used cirrii for sale? I mean like a crazy amount of em are available.
 
Potentially. Biggest factor is the rate at which they produce the Jet. If it's slow it would be hard to impossible to measure the drop. If they produce them quickly then you may see a decrease, which will trickle down to the older models, but the trickle will take time and get smaller as it goes down the line. This is largely a supply-and-demand thing. If one additional G5 SR22 comes on the market due to an owner getting a Jet it will do nothing to the market. If 20 of them come on the market in two months then prices would drop. Not a huge amount. Don't go thinking you can get a SR22 G5 for $200k.
 
RudyP said:
Some don't but many do. From what I understand the majority of deposit holders are current piston SR22 owners. Not that hard to stretch to $1.5-2M for a lot of folks who paid $900K for a new G5 SR22T. Moving customers up your product line is a well established approach for all the vehicle (car, boat, airplane, etc..) manufacturers.

But to get back to the OP's question, I would expect to see a little bit of price pressure on 1-3 year old SR22 G5Ts because that is mostly what position holders will be getting out of and they've been staying pretty high lately, but the SF50 sales will be at a much more measured pace than the 300+ SR2X that Cirrus is selling per year so I don't expect a huge impact and none to virtually none on the earlier G1, G2 or probably even G3 airframes.
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I think this is spot on. Only time will tell though.
 
For General Aviation I hope the SF50 does well.

Those who are transferring over from the SR 22 are probably brand loyalist, similar to some Apple I-phone users. I actually got in a staged 50 at Sun and Fun this year and it is VERY comfortable inside, transition from an SR22 should be simple because most of the buttons are in the same place. For 2MM - 2.5MM fully loaded I'm sure I could find a more capable airplane for the money that would fit my mission a little better.
 
RussR said:
Thanks for listening! That was my interview with Ben Kowalski on the SMAC.
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Not to thread hijack but just wanted to pass on that this is a really good podcast. It is great to listen to when I'm working late and would rather be out flying. I always learn something from it!

Russ, keep up the good work!
 
RudyP said:
Some don't but many do. From what I understand the majority of deposit holders are current piston SR22 owners. Not that hard to stretch to $1.5-2M for a lot of folks who paid $900K for a new G5 SR22T. Moving customers up your product line is a well established approach for all the vehicle (car, boat, airplane, etc..) manufacturers.
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Hey @SixPapaCharlie when is your dad buying that jet?

I doubt they will be at $1.5-$2M when they actually roll off the line.

This sounds like a rehash of the LearBaron.
 
EdFred said:
Hey @SixPapaCharlie when is your dad buying that jet?

I doubt they will be at $1.5-$2M when they actually roll off the line.

This sounds like a rehash of the LearBaron.
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They are for a lot of position holders Fred. Each position includes a price point + CPI adjustment.
 
I was wondering if the SR22s would be snapped up by SR20 owners and SR20s for sale would become more plentiful...
 
I'm actually a bit surprised about that long wait list for the Vision Jet.

An Eclipse costs about the same to operate (less actually per mile), but is a much better performing aircraft (375ktas vs. 300ktas, FL410 vs. FL280).

What exactly is the huge appeal of the Vision Jet? Just the chute? Not needing an MEL?
 
deonb said:
I'm actually a bit surprised about that long wait list for the Vision Jet.

An Eclipse costs about the same to operate (less actually per mile), but is a much better performing aircraft (375ktas vs. 300ktas, FL410 vs. FL280).

What exactly is the huge appeal of the Vision Jet? Just the chute? Not needing an MEL?
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Brainwashing. :D
 
deonb said:
I'm actually a bit surprised about that long wait list for the Vision Jet.

An Eclipse costs about the same to operate (less actually per mile), but is a much better performing aircraft (375ktas vs. 300ktas, FL410 vs. FL280).

What exactly is the huge appeal of the Vision Jet? Just the chute? Not needing an MEL?
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Cabin is a big part of it. It's really roomy and comfortable. Also, familiarity with the avionics, ergonomics etc.. And a more reliable manufacturer. A lot of potential buyers are put off by the potential risk of One Aviation going under. I really like the Eclipse and may end up buying one some day but I am looking at the SF50 as well.
 
I expect one of the biggest appeals of the Vision Jet for current SR22T owners will be the pressurised cabin.
 
GRG55 said:
I expect one of the biggest appeals of the Vision Jet for current SR22T owners will be the pressurised cabin.
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Of course, but so does every other airplane that the SF50 competes with (Meridian, TBM, Eclipse, Mustang, etc...) At the end of day, I think the people who will choose the SF50 over some of these, on-paper more logical choices will do so for the intangibles - really comfortable, well laid out cabin, easy upgrade from the SR22T or whatever piston you are flying today, established company with a lot of flying airframes that is unlikely to go bankrupt any time soon, etc..

I admit that 2-3 years ago, I was pretty unimpressed based on the paper specs - a plane with the performance of a turboprop but the operating expenses of a jet, why? But I have come around to it quite a bit as a different package of pros and cons that actually stands pretty well on its own. Particularly when you look at it more as a 50-75% better everything (speed, altitude, cabin, safety, etc,..) version of my SR22 that I am very happy with now. Wives/SOs really love it too.
 
GRG55 said:
I expect one of the biggest appeals of the Vision Jet for current SR22T owners will be the pressurised cabin.
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I think it's more they still get a chute.
The chute and cool kid marketing is why people will drop 2mil on a sub par performance jet.
It's their money so they can do what they want with it.
 
I expect (hope) that it puts some downward pressure on meridian prices. A lot fewer of them in the marketplace and a likely jumping off point for jet ownership. Who owns the positions means little, they are bought and sold all the time.
 
weilke said:
I expect (hope) that it puts some downward pressure on meridian prices. A lot fewer of them in the marketplace and a likely jumping off point for jet ownership. Who owns the positions means little, they are bought and sold all the time.
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Wouldn't JetProp conversions be more effective towards that end?
 
The price may not drop but given enough time a cirrus is sure to drop into your yard
 
tuwood said:
And fortunately you'll be able to have a beer with the pilot and occupants when they do. ;)
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Although if you saw the recent video of one dropping on a car, it could ruin your whole day...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
gsengle said:
Although if you saw the recent video of one dropping on a car, it could ruin your whole day...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Sadly for all of us, Cirrus doesn't have the market cornered on stall spins in the pattern.
 
What he says (below). The jet, reasonably tricked out, is more like 2.5X the price of an SR22, plus brutal operating costs and very difficult type certification. I just don't see the numbers there to have a major impact on SR22 used market.

G1- G3 SR22's remain a great value, especially G2's. For $200K or so, you can get an SR22 with a fresh parachute. For the price of a mediocre 182, you get a plane that has faster speeds, avionics that do just about everything (with great redundancy), great fuel economy, and...most important (for me anyway)...a parachute.

Insurance rates have come down a bit, due to Cirrus' remarkable recent safety record. (Cirrus got AOPA's safety award this year).

Also, keep in mind, not all those "positions" by SR22 owners will result in sales. Many are actually marketing their "place in line" now.

Unless you have money to burn, focus on earlier Cirrus models. And if you go for the jet, I live in So Cal and will happily share expenses during a flight any day, any time, 24 x 7!


RudyP said:
Some don't but many do. From what I understand the majority of deposit holders are current piston SR22 owners. Not that hard to stretch to $1.5-2M for a lot of folks who paid $900K for a new G5 SR22T. Moving customers up your product line is a well established approach for all the vehicle (car, boat, airplane, etc..) manufacturers.

But to get back to the OP's question, I would expect to see a little bit of price pressure on 1-3 year old SR22 G5Ts because that is mostly what position holders will be getting out of and they've been staying pretty high lately, but the SF50 sales will be at a much more measured pace than the 300+ SR2X that Cirrus is selling per year so I don't expect a huge impact and none to virtually none on the earlier G1, G2 or probably even G3 airframes.
Click to expand...
 
Bob, your definition of mediocre and mine must be vastly different, because I can pick up a (to me) mediocre 182 for a fraction of the 200k you threw out.
 
Meh....if one wants a flat screen TV and a chute I guess it's worth it. But, Bonanzas and Mooneys are fast for a fraction of the cost. My Bo does 200 kts no problemo....slightly faster than an SR. :D
 
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