Russia produces about 11 million barrels per day of crude oil, out of a world total of around 100 million barrels/day (using round numbers, because Covid has distorted supply and demand the last few years). More to the point, after their own domestic demand, Russia exports about 7 MBD of crude and petroleum products. Therein lies the problem -- if no one wants to import from Russia, importers will bid against each other on global markets to make up the shortfall. And even though the U.S. is roughly in balance between petroleum imports and exports, we are very active participants in global trade flows, both importing and exporting about 8 MBD of crude and products. So whatever drives global oil markets up or down affects our prices as well.
One other oil market tidbit: a barrel of crude oil is 42 gallons (an archaic unit of measurement, but whatever), so $1 per barrel of price change equates to about 2.4 cents per gallon. Brent crude oil prices (the de facto global index) have risen about $30 per barrel since the beginning of February, and about $50 since the beginning of December, so roughly 70 cents and $1.20, respectively. All things being equal (which they never are), we could expect to see similar price impacts in gasoline, diesel, avgas, Jet A, etc. (A big caveat there is seasonality, which would generally push gasoline up and distillates down as we head through spring into summer, but this war and (hopefully) post-Covid demand increases throw everything into flux.
