What to invest in over the next 30 years?

cbmontgo

cbmontgo

Pre-takeoff checklist
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cbmontgo
I invest a fair amount in 401K and stocks. Returns have been marginal over the last few months, which is no surprise given the current state of the global economy. After the meltdown of 2008, I really wonder how safe this stuff is when you realize that it can vaporize in a day. Makes you wonder there will be a paradigm shift at some point and tangible assets become more of the norm.

Where are you guys investing? Just curious what everyone's ideas/thoughts are.
 
Plastics.
 
cbmontgo said:
I invest a fair amount in 401K and stocks. Returns have been marginal over the last few months, which is no surprise given the current state of the global economy. After the meltdown of 2008, I really wonder how safe this stuff is when you realize that it can vaporize in a day. Makes you wonder there will be a paradigm shift at some point and tangible assets become more of the norm.

Where are you guys investing? Just curious what everyone's ideas/thoughts are.
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One simple rule of investing. Never put all your eggs in one basket as no one can predict the future. Since the government is doing its' best to discourage saving and promoting (with special tax incentives) consumption, I purchased an airplane for business use.
 
AvGas and piston twins.
 
pbramlett said:
Bingo! You can't fly a 401k.
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But you can fly a 401A! :)

N531MH_ext.jpg
 
Someone once said to me, "Land, they ain't making any more" and I know more people who have done well on land than on any other investment, and none who have lost like in the markets. My knowledge of anyone with $ is limited however.

Diversification - is it really the best way to make money safely, or the best way to guarantee you won't ever make much?

I think it mostly comes down to time. If you have time then you have opportunity. If you don't, you have to play it safe and lose opportunity.
 
I can tell you are in a real quandry over this decision. Make it simple.

1.) Liquidate the 401 K and take the tax hit.
2.) Mail the balance to me. :D
 
In my never to be humble opinion, get out of the stock market. Put 1/3 in physical gold and silver (take delivery of 1/3 and buy gold & silver mining stocks with the rest) and the rest in income producing real estate. All can be done with a self directed IRA. Do not own stocks going forward, you'll sleep better. ;)
 
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Gold (or most any other commodity, for that matter) is a horrible investment, unless you intend to purchase the gold in "good times" when it's price is relatively low, and sell it in "bad times" when people panic and start buying gold (thereby driving up the price). I'm a big Warren Buffett fan, and he hates gold, and his opinions seem pretty sound to me.

Real estate, or land in general, on the other hand, is almost always a good investment, as it is constantly producing something (unless, of course, you just sit on it, in which case it's no better than gold).
 
beer ... in cans. :D There's a case study on line somewhere of beer vs the stock market. :)
 
darrell said:
Gold (or most any other commodity, for that matter) is a horrible investment, unless you intend to purchase the gold in "good times" when it's price is relatively low, and sell it in "bad times" when people panic and start buying gold (thereby driving up the price). I'm a big Warren Buffett fan, and he hates gold, and his opinions seem pretty sound to me.

Real estate, or land in general, on the other hand, is almost always a good investment, as it is constantly producing something (unless, of course, you just sit on it, in which case it's no better than gold).
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The ratios are sound based on foreign debt crisis, our debt crisis, and a slowing economy. Look internationally, not just domesticly. ;)

Certainly, your mileage may very.

BTW, I said "income producing real estate" .:D
 
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"The stock market sucks" we keep hearing.
We also hear in the same breath, "so avoid it like the plague".

Someone with more investment savvy must explain that to me, I thought this would be a good time to buy, when it is low. I realize few can predict the future, however it does not make sense to buy when it is sky high.

Same with gold. I still hear people say they want gold. Have you seen the graph? Seems like a perfect setup for a pullback. I dispense any thought of gold or aapl based on curve shape. That ignores company fundamentals I realize, but they seem risky and I would bet a statistical analysis of many many companies whose graph shape was like that did not bode well for someone jumping in now. It has been several months since I looked so this may be dated.

Also note my reference on these things is always >2 years lookback.

PS my response to anyone with a vigorous counterpoint is going to be, "Do you suggest a person buys either right now?" :D
 
Probably the best advice is to diversify, however, I have always gravitated towards stocks and mutual funds and away from gold and real estate, that is, except for the house that I live in which I don't consider an investment. Real estate always seemed like too much trouble and not very liquid.
 
Everskyward said:
Real estate always seemed like too much trouble and not very liquid.
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That is more or less a true statement. But I am starting to wonder what kind of investment will withstand whatever our congresscritters will do.
 
Land and income producing properties. Participation in the stock market has dropped by half since the 2008-09 meltdown.

It's funny, when I was young and the stock market was good, I used to think my friends who were buying rental properties were crazy. They had lots of headaches, lots of hardships, little ROI.

Since 2009, they are the only people I know who are still doing well, and they are buying like crazy with real estate still at all-time low prices. The rest of us got tanked in the market and eaten by inflation, while they have seen a strong, steady income growth. Since 2010 I am following in their footsteps, probably too late to recover what I lost in the markets, but so far, things are going well.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Since 2009, they are the only people I know who are still doing well. The rest of us got tanked in the market and eaten by inflation, while they have seen a strong, steady income growth. Since 2010 I am following in their footsteps, probably too late to recover what I lost in the markets, but so far, things are going well.
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Not true. The people who were hurt the most by the market got scared and got out instead of investing more.
 
Everskyward said:
Not true. The people who were hurt the most by the market got scared and got out instead of investing more.
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This. People tend to sell at the bottom and buy at the top. Most people, that is. The wealthy people do the opposite.

I'm very tempted to get into real estate - properties which are located close-in, and which will generate positive cash flow from rentals. Those properties will grow in value much faster than a farm in the hinterlands, given demographic trends and my long term outlook on fuel prices. Besides, real estate is a cheap today with depressed prices and low interest rates.
 
kyleb said:
This. People tend to sell at the bottom and buy at the top. Most people, that is. The wealthy people do the opposite.

I'm very tempted to get into real estate - properties which are located close-in, and which will generate positive cash flow from rentals. Those properties will grow in value much faster than a farm in the hinterlands, given demographic trends and my long term outlook on fuel prices. Besides, real estate is a cheap today with depressed prices and low interest rates.
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No one gets rich thinking about it. ;)


A very, very wealthy man told me a long time ago that he would be much richer if he would have learned to say "Yes" 20 years earlier. :yes:
 
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Everskyward said:
Not true. The people who were hurt the most by the market got scared and got out instead of investing more.
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That is true to an extent, but the people that rode it out still got hurt, they just got hurt less.

Nobody has a crystal ball. Everyone is really down on the stock market right now. Guess what? I am a contrarian. I expect the markets to come roaring back once there is more certaintly, and stability. I could be totally wrong, and yes it is safest to diversify.
 
In March of 2009, I bought GE and C. Sold the C for a small profit less than 12 months later, am holding the GE.

I've been looking at a few individual stocks but mostly at Vanguard ETFs lately, haven't bought anything since 2009. My 401k is set in one of those settings where they rebalance it based on your expected retirement date...
 
IMO: Investing is not done over months or years, but over at minimum five years.

Anything less isn't investing, it's speculating.
 
Did you guys miss the thread title? I think everyone is on board with the >a few years idea!
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
Did you guys miss the thread title? I think everyone is on board with the >a few years idea!
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I disagree. Consider this from the OP:

"Returns have been marginal over the last few months"

When investing > a few years, one doesn't worry about the few months.
 
Anyone who really knows what's going to be what in the year 2042 is either way smarter than me or really, really well connected. Me, I'll do what's worked for the last few decades and hope there are no super volcanoes, asteroids, giant rampaging monsters, or zombie attacks.
 
Months are meaningless in long-term investing. Quarters even, to some extent. Diversification within most of the offerings allowed in many 401K programs means "a rising tide raises all boats" or vice-versa. It's rare to see great investment options inside 401K plans.

Unless your 401K has a self-directed option inside it, it's just base investing. As long as it beats inflation by some margin, you're better off today than yesterday. Max it out for the maximum tax benefit, choose something with virtually no load or expenses, and forget about it.

If it has a self-directed option and you think you can beat professional money managers, take a percentage you're comfortable losing and gamble if you like. It's a very personal decision.

Outside of tax shelters, there's more calculations to be done and tax implications. The most significant of which is that at a minimum you'll probably pay 15% in capital gains taxes right off the top. So unless you know you're going to make more than 15% plus average inflation, you're losing.

If you don't know what or why you're buying something, don't. You can live with your own mistakes. You'll be sore if your losses are because of someone else's.
 
darrell said:
Gold (or most any other commodity, for that matter) is a horrible investment, unless you intend to purchase the gold in "good times" when it's price is relatively low, and sell it in "bad times" when people panic and start buying gold (thereby driving up the price). I'm a big Warren Buffett fan, and he hates gold, and his opinions seem pretty sound to me.

Real estate, or land in general, on the other hand, is almost always a good investment, as it is constantly producing something (unless, of course, you just sit on it, in which case it's no better than gold).
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I think the buy low sell high idea is not unique to gold
 
kyleb said:
This. People tend to sell at the bottom and buy at the top. Most people, that is. The wealthy people do the opposite.

I'm very tempted to get into real estate - properties which are located close-in, and which will generate positive cash flow from rentals. Those properties will grow in value much faster than a farm in the hinterlands, given demographic trends and my long term outlook on fuel prices. Besides, real estate is a cheap today with depressed prices and low interest rates.
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Depends on how arable the hinterland is. Good producing cropland has led the parade in price appreciation for the last 3 years.

Done the landlord thing. Unless the properties are in the same or neighboring town in which you live, it's a chore. Nothing beats those 3 am "the basement is flooding" calls. Now apartment buildings are good, but not everyone can do that right off the bat.

Sometime markets are overvalued, sometimes undervalued. Usually low interest rates signal a better market coming. I'm still a believer, but I also like a certain amount of liquidity. That isn't real estate.
 
Invest in things that everyone will obviously need someday. HEALTH CARE. And with the world population booming, there will always be a need for it. Lot's of good funds from Vanguard (VGHCX) , and they make it SUPER easy to invest.
 
I was quite diversified in 2008 both geographically and by investment type. What did that mean? It meant I lost money on more continents than the average Joe!

:thumbsup:

But I "dollar cost average" as much as I can and, because of that, and all the cheap buys for a few years, I'm much farther in the black today than I was before the crash.

This isn't just the market, it includes land and other investments too. No gold for me though...i remain clear of owning precious metal but will invest in the stock of the mining operations.
 
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Think Europe circa 1880. Growth industries (selectively) and, due to the propensity of western civilization to debauch the money, assests you can live on/in.
 
Threefingeredjack said:
Anything supporting the shift in demographics as we baby boomers age. Drugs, health care infrastructure etc.
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Not to go SZ, but there is the very real possibility of government controls (including price) and regulations that would make health care less than profitable.
 
Nate, I don't get it... ...why do you need to make a return of 15% plus average inflation if investing outside of a tax shelter? CGT is only on the gain - i.e. it would reduce a 10% return to an 8.5% return if you cashed out, which is still a good result, right?

Am I missing something (I have no investments outside of a SEP-IRA, so quite possible)?
 
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