What is up with the prices of old spam cans?

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samiamPA

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samiamPA
I have been on the lookout for a C-150 or similar airplane and have been shocked at the asking prices I'm seeing. A local one for sale has the original (45 year old) engine, interior, and radios, and is asking nearly $30k. I'm blown away seeing prices in the $30-40 range for an average condition 150. It seems like just a few years ago these airplanes were selling for half of that.

I've noticed similar price escalations in 172's, but admittedly I don't follow that market as closely.

What is up with these price increases? Is it BasicMed or some sort of nostalgia?
 
Demand is consistent and supply shrinking. Our aging fleet is thinning from attrition and increasingly fewer examples in the fleet with impeccable maintenance.

Consider how many ramp rats and hangar derelicts abound. More planes each year slip past the point of an owners $ ability to maintain, or a family that doesn't want to sell Grandpa's plane, accelerates deterioration in viable supply.

Talking with my local airport manager, he said nearly 50% off all hangared planes on the field are more than 3 years out of annual. Almost exclusively pilots who have aged out or need major maintenance that will never happen.

Connect viable availability of used planes, unobtainable new plane prices, and the rapidly increasing value of used parts (salvage planes), the whole market moves up.
 
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I just sold mine for 18k. Apparently that was way too cheap as I’ve had multiple people offering upwards of 20k.
 
When I was shopping for a light single time builder years ago it wasn't much different. A C152, which is what I originally wanted, was way overpriced compared to PA28-140s and AA-1Xs. I wound up with an AA-1A for a fraction of the cost of a similar vintage C152. That sent me down a 30+ year Grumman rat-hole from which I have not yet emerged. I think AA-1X planes, if you can find them for sale, are still pretty competitively priced, especially if you don't mind paying a little less and taking care of some deferred maintenance the first year or two.
 
I'm always a day late and a dollar short on everything. I bought my Cherokee for $31k six years ago. With all the work and upgrading I've done to it, I wouldn't sell it for under $50k today which is near the going price for Cherokees I've seen for sale recently and not as well equipped as mine. I figure by the time I want to sell mine, the prices will be back down again.
 
Timbeck2 said:
I figure by the time I want to sell mine, the prices will be back down again.
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I can appreciate the self-depreciating humor.

We have seen a new floor on prices and a tested foundation for price improvement.

We're just coming out of an economic catastrophe and the GA market place was not negatively affected. As mentioned in post #2 above, supply of viable used legacy planes is dwindling.
 
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I assume it's a supply/demand issue, I just don't know who is paying these prices.

If you pay $25k for the airframe but it needs a new engine, you are now in over $50k for a clapped out 50 year old airplane with old avionics. So who are these buyers?
 
Supply and demand ,the pool of well maintained used aircraft is dwindling. Even aircraft with run out engines are selling at a high premium.
 
frfly172 said:
Supply and demand ,the pool of well maintained used aircraft is dwindling. Even aircraft with run out engines are selling at a high premium.
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Just look at how many have been destroyed this spring by tornadoes.
 
Don't forget, BasicMed has also increased demand, as more "experienced" pilots who would have gone sport pilot, or not flown at all are able to fly a certified plane.
 
samiamPA said:
I assume it's a supply/demand issue, I just don't know who is paying these prices.

If you pay $25k for the airframe but it needs a new engine, you are now in over $50k for a clapped out 50 year old airplane with old avionics. So who are these buyers?
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Someone without $500,000 - $1,000,000 to drop on a new Cirrus. Someone who wants more utility than a $150,000 LSA...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
midwestpa24 said:
Just look at how many have been destroyed this spring by tornadoes.
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To add to my post about the fleet being downsized by mother nature, we've also see a large surge in "rusty" pilots coming back to flying in the last couple of years. As a CFI I've worked with several that got their license in the 1990s, then life got in the way. Now they are older with time and cash to fly with and ready to buy a plane and get back into it.
 
The fleet is diminishing. Every four days this summer a Mooney has either suffered a gear collapse, landed gear up or suffered an overrun. Most of these will not return to the air, they'll be totaled by the insurance companies. 2 G's did this this summer, Mooney only made about a hundred of them. I fear I might outlive my favorite brand of airplane. And I'm no spring chicken.
 
I have a new hanger mate that purchased a Aerocommander Lark for about $15k. It is basic but in annual and it has a backseat and a Lycoming. If you are looking for something cheap
Maybe time to start thinking outside of the box. There are Non-standard options. That offer utility but are not the first thought. i. e , C175?, Baby beeches ?
 
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samiamPA said:
I assume it's a supply/demand issue, I just don't know who is paying these prices.

If you pay $25k for the airframe but it needs a new engine, you are now in over $50k for a clapped out 50 year old airplane with old avionics. So who are these buyers?
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if you’ve got the finances to go purchase new, then please do so.

this conversation has little value.
 
gsengle said:
Someone without $500,000 - $1,000,000 to drop on a new Cirrus. Someone who wants more utility than a $150,000 LSA...
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That's it right there. If new airplanes cost $100 or $150K, the old ones would be $10K. When new airplanes cost +$500K that puts a lot of people out of the new-airplane market. They end up competing for the old stuff, and paying way too much for it.
 
Try buying a boat around here. Airplanes and boats are nice socially distant hobbies these days.
 
Dan Thomas said:
That's it right there. If new airplanes cost $100 or $150K, the old ones would be $10K. When new airplanes cost +$500K that puts a lot of people out of the new-airplane market. They end up competing for the old stuff, and paying way too much for it.
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Agreed. But even that dynamic has a ceiling. The notion price inflation is perfectly inelastic as a function of fleet attrition is unnuanced. At some point you’re just holding on to a one off boat anchor nobody wants to touch going forward, especially as parts sourcing vendors for the type exit stage due to lack of volume.
 
And yet with all of this, I have a friend with a O-470 repowered C-175. He can’t give it away. The thing get off the ground in 300 feet.
 
I predict the number of ramp queens will skyrocket in the coming years. People overpaying for runout airplanes and get faced with a 20-60k repair bill they can’t afford.
 
samiamPA said:
I have been on the lookout for a C-150 or similar airplane and have been shocked at the asking prices I'm seeing. A local one for sale has the original (45 year old) engine, interior, and radios, and is asking nearly $30k. I'm blown away seeing prices in the $30-40 range for an average condition 150. It seems like just a few years ago these airplanes were selling for half of that.

I've noticed similar price escalations in 172's, but admittedly I don't follow that market as closely.

What is up with these price increases? Is it BasicMed or some sort of nostalgia?
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This is exactly why general aviation is dying. Stuff that belongs in the recycling bin or the straight up trash is being offered for ridiculous prices.
 
Tantalum said:
This is exactly why general aviation is dying. Stuff that belongs in the recycling bin or the straight up trash is being offered for ridiculous prices.
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I don’t think any airplane for the most part belongs in the trash. But there is a point where the only thing of value is the engine and radios until you get into higher end airplanes.
 
Grum.Man said:
I don’t think any airplane for the most part belongs in the trash. But there is a point where the only thing of value is the engine and radios until you get into higher end airplanes.
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Agreed... I'm willing to put in the maintenance and upgrades for an older plane, but not willing to spend $40k to turn a $30k plane into a $40k plane.
 
I was shocked a few months ago when I was some comments about pricing on 182’s, I looked up Q models and holy cow, they were over $100K, Some were WAY over!
 
When you start to upgrade an older airplane you have to realize ,you most likely are not going to get that money back.
 
As long as it is cheaper and better to rebuild certified aircraft than buy a new one, that is what will happen. People vote with their wallet and there are enough A&Ps rebuilding planes for their own use, or assisting others, to make attrition a very slow process. We are blessed with a pretty good number of existing airplanes, people with interest and skill to do the work, reasonable parts supply, plus Experimentals for those who want new build planes for a reasonable cost. There is relatively little demand for new factory production aircraft at the price it takes to build them. Over a long period, I'd guess the next 40 years, there will steady demand and a slowly decreasing supply due to certified planes totaled in accidents, corrosion taking its toll etc, and that will promote more new production. But not in the immediate future - because there is no need in the eyes of those who have money to spend.

My current plane is going to serve me well for at least a few more years. Looking forward, there are others... I see three Meyers 200s currently on Barnstormers, and I'd like one of those :D In comparison I would not choose anything new at eight times the cost.
 
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steingar said:
The fleet is diminishing. Every four days this summer a Mooney has either suffered a gear collapse, landed gear up or suffered an overrun. Most of these will not return to the air, they'll be totaled by the insurance companies. 2 G's did this this summer, Mooney only made about a hundred of them. I fear I might outlive my favorite brand of airplane. And I'm no spring chicken.
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This was seen in Block Island two weekends ago
20200802_114507.jpg
 
The old saying buy the best plane you can afford has never been truer. I live by either buy the cheapest and expect to spend time or money to make it right, or buy the best and still expect to put time and money in it to make it right.
 
Grum.Man said:
I don’t think any airplane for the most part belongs in the trash. But there is a point where the only thing of value is the engine and radios until you get into higher end airplanes.
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For some reason Cessnas are just way over priced in general. You can buy so much more Mooney or Grumman for $100,000 then you can Cessna

I wonder how many of these planes actually sell and how long it takes.

just because someone thinks something is worth something doesn't dictate its market value
 
gsengle said:
Someone without $500,000 - $1,000,000 to drop on a new Cirrus. Someone who wants more utility than a $150,000 LSA...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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But these people either pony up and buy something like a Cirrus or get discouraged at the market offering, continue to rent and/or put their money towards cars and boats and other things
 
Tantalum said:
But these people either pony up and buy something like a Cirrus or get discouraged at the market offering, continue to rent and/or put their money towards cars and boats and other things
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There are beautiful older Ga planes too with all the same utility of the older models...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Not so much on the Grumman's these days

Tantalum said:
For some reason Cessnas are just way over priced in general. You can buy so much more Mooney or Grumman for $100,000 then you can Cessna
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Tantalum said:
This is exactly why general aviation is dying. Stuff that belongs in the recycling bin or the straight up trash is being offered for ridiculous prices.
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FWIW: what killed GA was tort liability costs that saw Cessna and others shutdown/reduce new single engine aircraft manufacture in the 80s. Thereafter the entire GA support network started to slowly implode as well. GA never recovered from that period.

It's not a great example, but imagine if all the major vehicle manufacturers stopped new vehicle production for ten years then when they cranked things back up they only offered a tenth of the models at prices 4x the ones from a decade ago? Imagine what the used vehicle market would have looked like.

While the GARA act got new GA models flying it didnt fix the system. And no matter how hard the industry trys to boost GA via LSA, owner maintained, Part 23 rewrite, etc. no one manufacturer will ever produce a new broadly useable GA aircraft unless they cap tort liability costs. So without that those who wish to parttake in GA will have to endure $50k 50 year old aircraft or $300k new aircraft with not much in between except more money to keep the old ones flying and driven by the classic supply and demand model.
 
Also don't forget to realize everything else is getting more expensive as well. There are pickup trucks on the road today that surpass $80k new. I remember my dad about to croak over spending $30k on his Tahoe 20 years ago. My 12 year old truck stickered for $40k new, today you'd have to buy one at least 2 years old to get the same.

Uses trucks are also going way up in price too. A friend of mine is a dealer and said it has become unreal, trucks are gaining $5k in retail value while sitting on the used lot, and people are still buying them.
 
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