What does a "normal" market look like?

1000RR

1000RR

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1000RR
I'm hoping to buy my first (and intended last) plane somewhere between 9-24 months from now. I'm crossing my fingers maybe the market will soften up a bit by then. I have no historical basis to compare the current pricing of planes to. So I'm asking for anyone's insight/help in trying to establish some range of expectations so I don't go into this with blinders on.

The plane I'm wanting is a PA-32-260 due to it's useful load and seating; maybe a 300 if useful load is still at 1500lbs. The following plane (link below) doesn't fit the useful load category, but everything else looks very much like a great plane to me. What would a regular (softer) market have this plane priced at? When the day comes to buy a plane, I'm hoping to find something for $100k-$120k. It will probably put me in a late 60's model.

https://www.trade-a-plane.com/searc...OKEE+6/300&listing_id=2397405&s-type=aircraft
 
If I knew the answer to that question, I'd be making a lot of money in the market. All I have is a hunch. It won't go down to what it was in 2019, but it might come down somewhat. If a 182 has doubled in price, it might come down in 2023 to only a 50% premium over what it would have sold for in 2019. Oh yeah, we also have inflation to factor in now at 5-6% vs 2-3%.

I'm pulling all of this out of thin air.
 
Pricing seems to be up to 20% higher than "normal" right now. Whether or when "normal" will return is anyone's guess. On the surface, the one you linked is a pretty cherry example, though I'd want a look under the cowling to be sure (the 20 SPOH is a question to me). The best ones will always sell fast at a premium.
 
That's the kind of information I was looking for... Just general experience on where things have been compared to where they are now.

-Thanks
 
Going off memory, I'd estimate that the current market is similar to what it was prior to 2008. In the years between 2008 and 2019 it seems like everyone has become accustomed to lower acquisition prices. I wish I still had my 2007 and 2008 aircraft blue book to verify.

I think the prices will soften in the next couple of years but I don't think things will drop back down to what they were.
 
Barring a crazy market correction, I wouldn't plan on prices dropping in the next few years. I would expect them to continue to rise but the trend will soften a bit. Of course if you buy now it will drop out :(

For the link you listed, I just don't think you will see planes like that come down in price over time. Maybe a specific instance will sell lower but if you are waiting for this very type of plane (and most planes for that matter) to actually drop I think you'll be wishing 5yrs from now that you bought one in 2021. I own a 182 and don't understand the craziness. The 6 seater fixed gears like the 6/260 and 6/300 have really increased in popularity. Same for the Bonanza's. Something that seats 6 and hauls 3-4 with lots of room is pretty sweet. Same of the Lance and whatever else Piper calls them, if you don't mind retract.
 
I'm sure the market will soften to some degree, but probably not enough to wait things out beyond reason. I will just continue looking for that right plane. If the one in the link above had the useful load I'm looking for, I would be discussing and investigating further. The plane is actually exactly what I would want except for the useful load and to get it back up (more useful) I need to find one without A/C (which I'm fine with) and then maybe one with the 260 instead of the 300. But with the plane set up like that one, I would drop the 100lbs of useful load, take the 300 and go with it... but the price would have to be a little less than what this one is. I don't think this is a good price for this particular plane or else I would imagine it'd already be under contract.
 
Should be able to find a 300 with that useful. Early models seemed to be slimmer. The difference in climb is pretty eye opening compared to the 260. 300 fpm difference, and honestly how often will you really fly at or near gross. Maybe you will, but we dont. Plus the 300 is injected over carbureted. 4123w is a shade under 1500 useful and still has the vacuum pump and steam gauges. We're hoping to gain a few pounds after a panel upgrade. Years down the road I'd love to get some weight off the nose and go to the MT 3 blade composite that's 20 pounds lighter than the hartzell 3 blade aluminum. But 14k is a lot of coin just for that. Regardless at 120k depending on what avionics you want you should be able to find one mid time or less

It's pretty crazy how everyone seems to be looking for a Hershey bar PA32. Perhaps it's because the Saratoga's are all north of 200. Yet Piper won't or can't restart production. It's why I was disappointed the RV 15 wasn't a stretched version of the 10. Oh well, maybe the 16....and I've already got access to a Six.
 
Thanks for the insight Ernie. Yes, the 300's seem like you can get them up to around 1500 as long as they don't have A/C... and the 260's up around 1600 or so. And I would think you're right about not running all the way up to gross very often. My family of 5 with full fuel, I'd have about 170lbs left for luggage on a 300, and with a 260 I'd have about 300lbs.

I'm wondering once production kicks up, if the prices won't soften a bit. The same thing is happening in the Corvette world. With the limited C8's, the C7's are going for a premium right now. I bought a C7 Z06 at the very beginning of Covid last year and I could probably sell it for $15k-$20k more than I bought it for.... crazy!
 
1000RR said:
Thanks for the insight Ernie. Yes, the 300's seem like you can get them up to around 1500 as long as they don't have A/C... and the 260's up around 1600 or so. And I would think you're right about not running all the way up to gross very often. My family of 5 with full fuel, I'd have about 170lbs left for luggage on a 300, and with a 260 I'd have about 300lbs.

I'm wondering once production kicks up, if the prices won't soften a bit. The same thing is happening in the Corvette world. With the limited C8's, the C7's are going for a premium right now. I bought a C7 Z06 at the very beginning of Covid last year and I could probably sell it for $15k-$20k more than I bought it for.... crazy!
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Granted you're only using 5 seats, but the front baggage compartment max weight is 100lbs and quite small width wise and rear baggage weight is 100lbs. Another thing to remember is the pa32 is one of the few where zero fuel weight could be an issue. Somewhere around 3100 pounds iirc, just something to keep in mind.
 
I've got a W&B profile loaded into Foreflight for a Six that I'm getting my HP endorsement in and getting checked out to be able to rent if desired. It's a 260. But yes, I do have the zero fuel weight loaded in = 3,112lbs

I guess to your point, if you're putting 6 people in it, you're going to be limited to 200lbs for luggage anyway.... unless you're able to put stuff between seats or something.
 
1000RR said:
... I have no historical basis to compare the current pricing of planes to. So I'm asking for anyone's insight/help in trying to establish some range of expectations so I don't go into this with blinders on.
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I am by no means an experienced pilot and I've never purchased an airplane, but I have been window shopping for the last 2-3 years and I'll give you some cost comparisons I have observed.

When I started looking, I noticed that 6/300s would range around 70-120. Anything that wasn't a dog would usually start in the 90s and if it was really nice with a low time engine it would be around 110-120. The lowest priced 300 I could remember seeing was in the 60s, but it had issues. The 6/260s would lag behind the 300s in value about 20-30k and that trend seems to hold true today. I think if the airplane in that ad was for sale 2 years ago it would have listed for 110-120.

I saw an Archer II on trade-a-plane about 2 years ago that had gorgeous paint, decent interior, mid time engine, and old avionics- no GPS or anything- and it was for sale at 59k. Obviously I should have bought it. I believe that plane for list for 90-110 today and would probably be under contract before you could email the guy.

There is a popular guy on youtube who I won't name but he owns a red and white 1975 C182 and did a video about purchasing his plane. He bought it in 2016 for 90-something and I don't know details about it as far as hours go, but mid time comparably equipped 182s of that vintage currently list for 140-190.

I think it's safe to say that airplane prices have increased by 50-100% in the "last few years." Definitely on an upslope. Whether we are at the peak or not is to be seen.
 
1000RR said:
That's the kind of information I was looking for... Just general experience on where things have been compared to where they are now.

-Thanks
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If airplane prices drop a lot in a couple of years, there's a better-than-even chance that your wealth will drop, too (the value of your house, your retirement investments, or even your income), so while your dream airplane could cost less, it might not be any more affordable for you then than it is now.
 
David Megginson said:
If airplane prices drop a lot in a couple of years, there's a better-than-even chance that your wealth will drop, too (the value of your house, your retirement investments, or even your income), so while your dream airplane could cost less, it might not be any more affordable for you then than it is now.
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Your point is well taken. In that context, only 1 of the 3 (income) would sway my plane buying decision unless something else was extreme (like a huge drop in my investments). Even then, the adjustment (due to a decrease in investments) may just be time till retirement, not really an impact to purchasing power. The housing market is typically a tit for tat. Sell high, buy high... sell low, buy low (assuming you're doing both around the same time). In that vein, I would say I would be much better off if the plane values came back down to where they were a couple/few years ago. I'm not banking on that... so I keep searching and looking. If it happens, it happens. I'm in a flying club (C172, C182, PA28) right now and availability has been great... and have access (although not ideal) to rent a Six. So nothing is really pushing anything.
 
The fleet is shrinking. Absent a major economic shock, prices are not going down. Most likely, they will continue to go up. At best, they may plateau for a while.

You can't time the market. You are just guessing, with a 50/50 chance of being right or wrong.

If the time is right for YOU, get a plane. If not, wait til the time is right.
 
I think in a round about way, I'm saying the same thing Ed ("If the time is right for YOU, get a plane"). The time will be right when I find the plane I want for a price I'm willing to afford (sounds pretty advanced, right? Haha). It starts with figuring out the mission, that has been done... then finding a make/model that would accomplish that mission, that has been done... and finally finding the one that checks as many boxes (TT/Engine/Avionics/interior/exterior) for a price I'm willing to pay. If those stars align - golden. If not, I continue with the flying club indefinitely (or adjust my expectations).
 
Ed Haywood said:
The fleet is shrinking.
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Unfortunately, so is the private owner-pilot population -- we're getting older (on average) every year, and not managing to replace enough of the ones who quit flying or simply die off. So it's a race to see which one declines faster, the availability of used planes, or the number of private pilots left who want to buy them (modulo other demands, like entry-level planes for pilot training). Then there's also the risk of a major technological disruption that makes new planes less expensive.

But agreed, if you want to buy, buy. The OP said they're happy in a flying club for now, so that's great, too.
 
FWIW - it seems the rise in prices has slowed / stopped compared to 6 months ago. My plan is to buy a 182 in 3 years, so I’m keeping an eye on things.
 
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Here is data on price history. If you are an AOPA member, this is available as part of their limited vref service. The bottom row is the Cherokee 6 price, the top is the average of similar aircraft.

This is for a PA-32–260, 1968

187B9D60-DA9B-4AC0-BF9E-BDDAA865F514.jpeg
 
bflynn said:
Here is data on price history. If you are an AOPA member, this is available as part of their limited vref service.

This is for a PA-32–260, 1968
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I've been running some VREF numbers on some Six's through my AOPA membership. I've seen those historical graphs. Wasn't sure what the Blue line/area meant... is that the average of all singles?

Honestly, I wasn't sure how accurate the VREF was in this market. They definitely don't match up to 90% of the planes I'm seeing. I have found one though (not on the market) that seems to VREF out about right... maybe it's a unicorn?!
 
Blue (top) is the average of all complex singles. Green (bottom) is this model price.
 
That's kinda what I thought. Looking at the VREF numbers for that model - they are so far off of what the market seems to be doing.

They definitely don't match up to 90% of the planes I'm seeing. I have found one though (not on the market) that seems to VREF out about right... maybe it's a unicorn?!
 
People have access to cheap interest rates, fuel prices are stable and there are tax incentives for business purchases. A change in 2 of the 3 will reduce demand.
 
VREF on a 182 is a pipe dream in this market. 5yrs ago 100k would buy a 182R, 3yrs ago 125k would buy the same, today 150k gets you an engine past TBO for a 182R. The 182 and 172 market has gone parabolic.

Maybe the PA32 is more leveled.
 
1000RR said:
That's kinda what I thought. Looking at the VREF numbers for that model - they are so far off of what the market seems to be doing.

They definitely don't match up to 90% of the planes I'm seeing. I have found one though (not on the market) that seems to VREF out about right... maybe it's a unicorn?!
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Well, vref is backward looking. By its nature, historical data always is. However, it's built off recorded sales prices, not advertised prices.

Aircraft that are overpriced for their condition tend to represent most of the advertised market because they're the ones that stay on the market longer.
 
bflynn said:
Well, vref is backward looking. By its nature, historical data always is. However, it's built off recorded sales prices, not advertised prices.

Aircraft that are overpriced for their condition tend to represent most of the advertised market because they're the ones that stay on the market longer.
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There you go... adding logic to the discussion. :D I guess maybe that's why VREF might show the lower side (perceived) since those are real sales and likely are ones that weren't on the market but a day at most or maybe were unadvertised purchases.

Do you know where they get the data/history from? Is there a central repository that records purchase price? Does the FAA when you register a plane (kind of like the MVD for a car/boat/rv/etc.?)? Or is it from each State contributing their State's sales/use tax?
 
Go E/AB and forego all the future ADs that will start popping up as GA airframes start hitting thier lifetime limits.

The Piper spar AD and Cessna lower strut AD are only going to increase as cycles take thier toll on these structures.
 
Vans has a one year waiting list.

the folks I talked to at OSH amd SnF all said they were having record years.

Lots of free money in the economy (stimulus, PPP, Covid money thrown at healthcare companies). I know an ICU nurse that is traveling around the country working PRN making $10,000 a week.

There is inflation is all parts of society. And cheap interest rates.

When will it stop? Who knows if it will ever stop. Ask Nixon/Carter/Reagan. Paul Volker got a handle on inflation by raising interest rates to double digits. Can’t do that now with our national debt.

You might be seeing the new normal. Buy now, if you lose money, you lose money. I bought a very clean Cherokee 18 months ago. Have been offered 150% of my purchase price twice now. I wouldn’t sell because it’s paid for and to replace it would cost a fortune.
 
pfarber said:
Go E/AB and forego all the future ADs that will start popping up as GA airframes start hitting thier lifetime limits.

The Piper spar AD and Cessna lower strut AD are only going to increase as cycles take thier toll on these structures.
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Piper spar issue from Embry Riddle was a hard Landing damage that went undetected. I have not heard of any who did not pass the inspection. Name me an EAB that can meet the value and utility of my Arrow. BTW my spars look brand new after 45 years.
 
cowtowner said:
Vans has a one year waiting list.

the folks I talked to at OSH amd SnF all said they were having record years.

Lots of free money in the economy (stimulus, PPP, Covid money thrown at healthcare companies). I know an ICU nurse that is traveling around the country working PRN making $10,000 a week.

There is inflation is all parts of society. And cheap interest rates.

When will it stop? Who knows if it will ever stop. Ask Nixon/Carter/Reagan. Paul Volker got a handle on inflation by raising interest rates to double digits. Can’t do that now with our national debt.

You might be seeing the new normal. Buy now, if you lose money, you lose money. I bought a very clean Cherokee 18 months ago. Have been offered 150% of my purchase price twice now. I wouldn’t sell because it’s paid for and to replace it would cost a fortune.
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You 10000% missed the point.

THe issue is not the bubble we are in now, but every takeoff and landing/hour in the air eats into the lifetime of these AC. Fatigue is not always linear. So when massive and costly ADs start popping up these relecis of the 60/70/80s are not going to survive due to cost or parts.

ALso, if you lose your, it doesn't matter what interest rate you got on a loan. You still need to pay it, eat, or lose all that money.
 
That is why I bought an airframe with ONLY 3500 TTAF. But these are all first world problems. If we become third world, then we have new problems.
 
pfarber said:
Go E/AB and forego all the future ADs that will start popping up as GA airframes start hitting thier lifetime limits.

The Piper spar AD and Cessna lower strut AD are only going to increase as cycles take thier toll on these structures.
Click to expand...

Yup yup. That was when I moved on and out of the fac built six seater/250hp 4 seater upgrade search. This Sh%t just keeps popping up, and will continue to do so until these things are finally grounded, when you'll hear a collective cheer in the background from the legacy OEMs. The maintenance deserts dynamics currently afflicting this sector of the hobby are also an aggravant, to me at least. It was a good run. Everything ends.

cowtowner said:
Ask Nixon/Carter/Reagan. Paul Volker got a handle on inflation by raising interest rates to double digits. Can’t do that now with our national debt.
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Except it doesn't have to be double digit hike to fire for effect. Grabbing cheap money may be a tragedy of the commons to the financed millionaires that litter this leveraged-consumerist dependent economy, but I don't wanna hear the violins when the credit spigot gets turned closed a quarter of an inch, which it will, like it always has.

To wit, the damn airplane I own (and want to sell but won't due to current replacement-inflation-proxy), I do precisely because of a deflationary transfer between a group of financed millionaire and myself (cash buyer). This isn't ancient history (2013), it's just that people have the memory span of a gnat in this Country. A new "floor" that doesn't make. That's just what the holders of inflated assets (housing very much at the forefront of that) like to tell themselves to rationalize their "irrational exuberance", to quote the guy who most materially helped the lambs to the slaughter, then when he got egg on his face basically argued he's just a SGOTI. LOL
 
hindsight2020 said:
Paul Volker got a handle on inflation by raising interest rates to double digits. Can’t do that now with our national debt.
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Much more than government debt (which often goes for below prime anyway), a rise in interest rates would devastate the housing market. First-time buyers bid on houses based not on the value, but the monthly payments they can afford. With low interest rates, it's possible to buy (say) an $800,000 house for the same monthly payment as a $300,000 house if interest rates were in the high single digits. That's the main reason we're seeing these insane house prices now.

If interest rates rise significantly, house prices will tumble until first-time buyers can afford the monthly payments again (which will be mostly interest for the first few years, as was the case in the 1990s). That will be devastating for older people, many of whom have the equity in their house as their main (or only) retirement savings. It will also be devastating for a lot of younger people only a few years into their mortgages, who will suddenly owe a lot more on their mortgages than their homes are actually worth.
 
David Megginson said:
Much more than government debt (which often goes for below prime anyway), a rise in interest rates would devastate the housing market. First-time buyers bid on houses based not on the value, but the monthly payments they can afford. With low interest rates, it's possible to buy (say) an $800,000 house for the same monthly payment as a $300,000 house if interest rates were in the high single digits. That's the main reason we're seeing these insane house prices now.

If interest rates rise significantly, house prices will tumble until first-time buyers can afford the monthly payments again (which will be mostly interest for the first few years, as was the case in the 1990s). That will be devastating for older people, many of whom have the equity in their house as their main (or only) retirement savings. It will also be devastating for a lot of younger people only a few years into their mortgages, who will suddenly owe a lot more on their mortgages than their homes are actually worth.
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But it would be great for people like me who have money in the bank saved and not using my house as an investment but as a place to live. I could finally get a return on the money that I have stashed away rather than watching inflation erode its value.

And first time buyers would benefit by not having to have as much cash to put down. Need to think past the first level.
 
David Megginson said:
Much more than government debt (which often goes for below prime anyway), a rise in interest rates would devastate the housing market. First-time buyers bid on houses based not on the value, but the monthly payments they can afford. With low interest rates, it's possible to buy (say) an $800,000 house for the same monthly payment as a $300,000 house if interest rates were in the high single digits. That's the main reason we're seeing these insane house prices now.

If interest rates rise significantly, house prices will tumble until first-time buyers can afford the monthly payments again (which will be mostly interest for the first few years, as was the case in the 1990s). That will be devastating for older people, many of whom have the equity in their house as their main (or only) retirement savings. It will also be devastating for a lot of younger people only a few years into their mortgages, who will suddenly owe a lot more on their mortgages than their homes are actually worth.
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What you responded to was the prior poster's quote, not mine. For some reason it tagged me as though I wrote it.
 
Morgan3820 said:
But it would be great for people like me who have money in the bank saved and not using my house as an investment but as a place to live. I could finally get a return on the money that I have stashed away rather than watching inflation erode its value.

And first time buyers would benefit by not having to have as much cash to put down. Need to think past the first level.
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No lack of thinking. There are winners and losers with everything. But I think there would be far more losers than winners from high interest rates, because most Americans and Canadians don't have pensions any more and haven't been able to manage much in retirement savings beyond their homes — obviously, they're not in this forum, since flying (as an owner or renter) implies that you're affluent with enough surplus income for an expensive hobby.

Agreed, though, that the lower down payments would be a benefit for first-time buyers (but perhaps more than offset by the greater amount of time before they accumulate real equity in their homes, since most of their payments for the first few years are just covering interest).
 
E="pfarber, post: 3142428, member: 47695"]Bearhawk.

Specifically Bearhawk 5

You're welcome.[/QUOTE]
The Bearhawk 5 is much more akin to a Cessna 185 than it is to a PA-32.

Does the OP have a large workshop available, and does he want to spend the next four or five years building an airplane? E-AB is not the answer for everyone.
 
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